2021 AFL

CaliforniaRaisin
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2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Sep 30, 2021 2:33 am

Rosters haven’t been released but this is a big one:

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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby Bertz » Thu Sep 30, 2021 3:04 am

YES!

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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:19 pm



RHP Dannis Correa
RHP Ryan Jensen
RHP Caleb Kilian
LHP Brendon Little
SS Luis Vázquez
SS Andy Weber
OF Nelly Velázquez

No Kohl Franklin but normally each team sends 8 so maybe there’s still hope.
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 06, 2021 3:56 pm

NELLY!

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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 06, 2021 4:00 pm

I’m thinking this is a huge opportunity in particular for Jensen, Kilian, and Velazquez. We’ll get more on the pitch mixes of the two pitchers, Velazquez gets a wide open opp

The org really seems to like Vazquez. I assume his defense has opened doors for him that wouldn’t otherwise. He’s shown some approach and is starting to fill out :dontknow:
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 13, 2021 12:03 am

It's opening day eve:

https://www.mlb.com/news/arizona-fall-l ... e-coverage

The complete list of Top 100 Prospects in the Fall League:

Spencer Torkelson, 1B/3B, Salt River (Tigers, No. 4 on Top 100)
Marco Luciano, SS, Scottsdale (Giants, No. 5)
C.J. Abrams, SS, Peoria (Padres, No. 6)
Riley Greene, OF, Salt River (Tigers, No. 7)
Triston Casas, 1B, Scottsdale (Red Sox, No. 18)
Nolan Gorman, 2B/3B, Glendale (Cardinals, No. 24)
Gabriel Moreno, C, Mesa (Blue Jays, No. 32)
Brett Baty, 3B/OF, Salt River (Mets, No. 45)
MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Peoria (Padres, No. 56)
Nick Gonzales, 2B, Peoria (Pirates, No. 62)
Asa Lacy, LHP, Surprise (Royals, No. 66)
Shea Langeliers, C, Peoria (Braves, No. 69)
J.J. Bleday, OF, Mesa (Marlins, No. 71)
Bobby Miller, RHP, Glendale (Dodgers, No. 78)
Justin Foscue, 2B, Surprise (Rangers, No. 83)
Sam Huff, C/1B, Surprise (Rangers, No. 91)
Bryson Stott, SS, Peoria (Phillies, No. 97)


Mesa's going to see Asa Lacy tomorrow night. He and Gore both had disappointing seasons in orgs that have some SP depth so maybe that can work out for the Cubs somehow
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 13, 2021 5:50 pm



Ryan Jensen starting tomorrow night at...6:60??
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CaliforniaRaisin
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Oct 13, 2021 7:13 pm

Luis Vázquez is leading off at SS and Nelly Velázquez batting cleanup in CF for Mesa on opening day.
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Oct 13, 2021 8:38 pm

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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Oct 13, 2021 10:27 pm

10/13 (Opening Day): Mesa lost 5-0 Box Score

SS L. Vázquez 0/3, BB, K
CF N. Velázquez 3/4, K, 2 2B (2)
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Wed Oct 13, 2021 11:40 pm

What a story Nelson Velazquez is slowly becoming. This guy’s been hitting HRs since the AZL, been a lynchpin on a couple MiLB champion rosters (Eugene, South Bend), can play all 3 OF spots, runs, busts his ass, stays healthy, and now he’s hitting upper minors pitching?

A few branches from that...

- Power is a serious trump card for prospects? Velazquez’s over the fence power was notable going back to the Rk and SS levels, and it’s not as if he was a low average hitter relative to the leagues

- Does this kind of offensive profile making waves in the upper minors (SSS notwithstanding) get the Cubs a little more willing to take risks on ? They should be! Closing the door on hitters with some swing and miss is closing the door on a horsefeathers ton of talent who may or may not have plenty of other skills and tools to work with. I’d love to see someone maybe on the outs with their current org like Monte Harrison get acquired cheaply and coached up. Wisdom and Hermosillo were pickups in this vein but maybe it’s time to target someone more specific and/or younger

Alrighty that seemed like a necessary post
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby NOLA » Thu Oct 14, 2021 12:05 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:What a story Nelson Velazquez is slowly becoming. This guy’s been hitting HRs since the AZL, been a lynchpin on a couple MiLB champion rosters (Eugene, South Bend), can play all 3 OF spots, runs, busts his ass, stays healthy, and now he’s hitting upper minors pitching?

A few branches from that...

- Power is a serious trump card for prospects? Velazquez’s over the fence power was notable going back to the Rk and SS levels, and it’s not as if he was a low average hitter relative to the leagues

- Does this kind of offensive profile making waves in the upper minors (SSS notwithstanding) get the Cubs a little more willing to take risks on ? They should be! Closing the door on hitters with some swing and miss is closing the door on a horsefeathers ton of talent who may or may not have plenty of other skills and tools to work with. I’d love to see someone maybe on the outs with their current org like Monte Harrison get acquired cheaply and coached up. Wisdom and Hermosillo were pickups in this vein but maybe it’s time to target someone more specific and/or younger

Alrighty that seemed like a necessary post

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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Thu Oct 14, 2021 2:50 am

Brozdowski's piece, as usual, is surprisingly meaty

Jensen:

His primary method of attack starts from his fastballs, where he prefers a sinker to right-handed hitters and a four-seamer to left-handed hitters. He has a natural ability to generate plus arm-side run because of his ability to pronate his hand through ball release, as many would say in development circles. The drawback of this skill is that his four-seam fastball doesn’t profile like many of the plus four-seamers pitchers throw. It’s kind of stuck between a true sinker and a true four-seam fastball. This results in left-handed hitters succeeding at a rate greater than right-handed hitters, whom he dominates. Jensen told Marquee Sports Network back in July that he’s been working on the life his four-seam fastball has, in an effort to improve his lefty woes.


His slider doesn’t possess a lot of total movement. It’s a tight pitch, which means the primary way to make the pitch better is to improve the command or increase the pitch’s velocity, the latter being one of the most important factors in any pitch’s success and something that Jensen mentioned to Marquee as a development goal this season. His curveball on the other hand possessed the highest chase and whiff percentages of any offering he threw this season. There may not be much adjustment needed to make that pitch major-league caliber.


The AFL should put a little more focus on Jensen's pitch mix, would love to see more changeups

Velazquez:

Velazquez posted some of the strongest batted-ball metrics in the Cubs system this season. His 90th percentile average exit velocity — which looks at how well he hits the Top 10% of his hardest-hit balls — sits among some of the best in all of the minor leagues. This metric has stronger predicting power than a number that encapsulates only one batted ball event, like max exit velocity would. In layman’s terms, Velazquez consistently hits the ball hard.


The limit in Velazquez’s profile is his defense. He’s not an agile outfielder and doesn’t possess a strong arm to make up for it, but the AFL is a place for development. Maybe Velasquez polishes up his defense or gets reps at another position to accelerate his timetable to the major leagues


Interesting note on defense. Sounds like a guy who could/should be broken in as a 5th OFer and can move up from there as he moves towards FA if things go well enough? Still a good find for a 5th round pick

Little:

The two offerings that already look like major league pitches are his sinker and slider. His sinker got up to 94-96 mph this season and his ability to kill vertical movement on the pitch (cause the ball to drop more than a hitter would expect) is superb. There are essentially just four pitchers in baseball who can kill as much vertical movement from as high of a release height as he has. And Little throws harder than all but one of them. Think Dallas Keuchel, Framber Valdez and Zach Britton when imagining his sinker.

Little’s slider...between 87-89 makes for a devastating offering, one that dives straight downward and almost solely allowed him to strikeout 31% of the batters he faced at Triple-A this season.


----

I don't know how attainable MacKenzie Gore actually is, probably only for Contreras or Hendricks, but he averaged close to 96 tonight, topped out at 98 with his slider at 88
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri Oct 15, 2021 12:43 am

Jensen's facing a good lineup against the Scorpions tonight. Jeter Downs, Richard Palacios, and Heriberto Hernandez are quality enough competition probably, but then it's Marco Luciano and Tristan Casas in the 4 and 5 spot. It's Casas or Riley Greene for the best LHH prospect in the minors right now, I like Casas
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:14 am

He walked 4 and recorded 4 outs
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Oct 15, 2021 2:47 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:Brozdowski's piece, as usual, is surprisingly meaty


How can something be surprisingly meaty, as usual?
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Oct 15, 2021 5:34 pm

10/14: Mesa won 13-5 Box Score

SS L. Vázquez 2/6, 2 R, 2 RBI, 2 K
2B A. Weber 0/4, R, RBI, BB, 3 K
SP R. Jensen 1.1 IP, 3 H, 4 ER, 4 BB, 1 K, 0-1 GO-FO
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby TomtheBombadil » Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:15 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
TomtheBombadil wrote:Brozdowski's piece, as usual, is surprisingly meaty


How can something be surprisingly meaty, as usual?


There’s probably just something lost btw reading in an American like yours vs a British accent, try the latter
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Mon Oct 18, 2021 5:06 am

10/15: Mesa won 9-3

CF N. Velázquez 1/5, 3 K

10/16: Mesa lost 15-7

CF N. Velázquez 0/5, RBI, 3 K
SS L. Vázquez 1/3, RBI, 2 K
2B A. Weber 0/2, R, 2 BB
RP C. Killian 0+ IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 WP
RP B. Little 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP, balk

10/17: No games
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby Tim » Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:56 am

CaliforniaRaisin wrote:10/15: Mesa won 9-3

CF N. Velázquez 1/5, 3 K

10/16: Mesa lost 15-7

CF N. Velázquez 0/5, RBI, 3 K
SS L. Vázquez 1/3, RBI, 2 K
2B A. Weber 0/2, R, 2 BB
RP C. Killian 0+ IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 WP
RP B. Little 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP, balk

10/17: No games

From Keith Law:
Cubs right-hander Caleb Kilian, who was part of the return for Kris Bryant, faced seven batters Saturday night, and they all reached safely and scored, culminating in a home run for Rockies first baseman Michael Toglia (which I predicted — I have a witness). Kilian was just 91-93 with four pitches, getting hit hard, with no ability to finish his curveball and too little deception. He was followed by Cubs lefty Brendon Little, who was 93-96 but all over the place and left the game with the trainer.
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby Hrubes20 » Tue Oct 19, 2021 4:52 pm

Tim wrote:
CaliforniaRaisin wrote:10/15: Mesa won 9-3

CF N. Velázquez 1/5, 3 K

10/16: Mesa lost 15-7

CF N. Velázquez 0/5, RBI, 3 K
SS L. Vázquez 1/3, RBI, 2 K
2B A. Weber 0/2, R, 2 BB
RP C. Killian 0+ IP, 5 H, 7 ER, 1 BB, 0 K, 1 HR, 1 HBP, 1 WP
RP B. Little 1 IP, 3 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 2 K, 1 HBP, balk

10/17: No games

From Keith Law:
Cubs right-hander Caleb Kilian, who was part of the return for Kris Bryant, faced seven batters Saturday night, and they all reached safely and scored, culminating in a home run for Rockies first baseman Michael Toglia (which I predicted — I have a witness). Kilian was just 91-93 with four pitches, getting hit hard, with no ability to finish his curveball and too little deception. He was followed by Cubs lefty Brendon Little, who was 93-96 but all over the place and left the game with the trainer.


That velo is way down for Killian from where he was before COVID. Hopefully it's just a matter of getting the strength and conditioning back up.
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Wed Oct 20, 2021 5:01 am

10/18: Mesa lost 7-1

SS L. Vázquez 0/3, R, BB, K
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu Oct 21, 2021 5:29 am

10/20: Mesa won 11-9

3B A. Weber 2/4, 2 RBI, 2 BB
RF N. Velázquez 2/4, 4 R, RBI, BB, K, 2B (3)
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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:52 am

10/21: Mesa won 7-6

3B A. Weber 0/5, R, BB, K
RF N. Velázquez 0/1, 4 BB, K
SS L. Vázquez 1/3, R, RBI, 2 BB, K, HR (1)
SP C. Kilian 2 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 1 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 2-0 GO-FO, 46-27 pitches-strikes
RP R. Jensen 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 6 K, 1 HR, 1-0 GO-FO, 60-35 pitches-strikes

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Re: 2021 AFL

Postby Bertz » Fri Oct 22, 2021 5:03 pm



Context for any BB/K wonkiness we might see
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