Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

CaliforniaRaisin
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Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 12, 2022 6:04 am

Scheduled Game (All Times Central):

Iowa vs Omaha, 12:08 pm
Tennessee vs Montgomery (game one), 5:30 pm
Tennessee at Montgomery (in Tenn, game two), TBD
South Bend vs Ft Wayne, 6:05 pm
Myrtle Beach vs Charleston, 6:05 pm

Iowa: RHP Luke Farrell
South Bend: LHP Riley Martin
Myrtle Beach: RHP Porter Hodge
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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby Bertz » Thu May 12, 2022 4:03 pm

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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Thu May 12, 2022 10:00 pm

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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 13, 2022 12:38 am

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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby Bertz » Fri May 13, 2022 1:33 am

Bryce Ball is 3/6 with a dong so far midway through game 2 of Tenn's DH, which has pushed his OPS up over .900
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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri May 13, 2022 1:49 am

Kevin almost did it again (and the wind is slightly blowing in):

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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby UK » Fri May 13, 2022 2:07 am

Bertz wrote:Bryce Ball is 3/6 with a dong so far midway through game 2 of Tenn's DH, which has pushed his OPS up over .900


It's good to see, you wondered early on if he was sacrificing power for contact.

Also, Garcia has 4HRs in the past week for Iowa.
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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby TomtheBombadil » Fri May 13, 2022 1:53 pm

I could see this as something of a breakout for Ball, first time in the upper minors at 23 cutting some Ks with some power. Still, the reports on his defense over the years are bad, and bat only is rough with a nearly 50% GB rate in the minors. He seems like one of those guys who will stew in the upper minors for a minute, at least until he cleans up the rest of his offense
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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby CubinNY » Fri May 13, 2022 3:18 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I could see this as something of a breakout for Ball, first time in the upper minors at 23 cutting some Ks with some power. Still, the reports on his defense over the years are bad, and bat only is rough with a nearly 50% GB rate in the minors. He seems like one of those guys who will stew in the upper minors for a minute, at least until he cleans up the rest of his offense

He’ll be on the 2026 Cubs in September hitting meatballs from teams that are also no longer in contention and Obvious Shirts will make a “We got Balls” tshirt or some horsefeathers. And 2027 he’ll be the starting first baseman on a team filled with replacement level players.

I’ve seen this story before.
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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby craig » Fri May 13, 2022 5:00 pm

Ball's K rate and BB rates have both changed significantly. (AB/BB from 4.4 to 12.8; AB/K from 2.9 to 5.0).

3 possibilities:'
1. Just a lucky hot month, and he'll relapse towards normal.
2. His swing-contact has maybe jumped? *IF* you hit the ball when you swing, lots of counts won't get deep enough to allow walks or K's...
3. He's intentionally adjusted to swing more earlier in the count? Rather than taking so many pitches and constantly putting himself into deep counts? You can't K if you've already resolved the AB before getting to two strikes.

Will be interesting to see if he can sustain any of his success. I admit I kinda love having the DH.
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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby Bertz » Fri May 13, 2022 6:16 pm

craig wrote:Ball's K rate and BB rates have both changed significantly. (AB/BB from 4.4 to 12.8; AB/K from 2.9 to 5.0).

3 possibilities:'
1. Just a lucky hot month, and he'll relapse towards normal.
2. His swing-contact has maybe jumped? *IF* you hit the ball when you swing, lots of counts won't get deep enough to allow walks or K's...
3. He's intentionally adjusted to swing more earlier in the count? Rather than taking so many pitches and constantly putting himself into deep counts? You can't K if you've already resolved the AB before getting to two strikes.

Will be interesting to see if he can sustain any of his success. I admit I kinda love having the DH.


He's gotten much more aggressive. His P/PA has fallen from 4.07 with us last year to 3.74. His swinging strike rate is up from 9.3% to 10.8%. 10.8% is actually still good, MLB average is 11.2%.

I think if we had MLB caliber data we'd be able to make a call on how real his improvement is. With the lack of transparency we have, the glass half empty argument is that his batted ball profile is largely the same, so while it's good that with his power he's putting the ball in play more, the vastly improved results are mainly due to the new shift restrictions at the AA level.
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Re: Minor League Discussion & Boxes, 5-12-22

Postby craig » Fri May 13, 2022 10:03 pm

Thanks. So if swinging strike rate is up a bit, then it's not a case that he's just making more contact, and that he was just swing-and-missing his way into walk/K counts last year.

Not sure if this is logical or saber-intelligent. But I'm not sure a boost in swing-strike rate is necessarily that meaningful? If I'm a power hitter and I'm going to swing at the first pitch, I think I'm going to probably let it rip. Might be more likely to swing-and-miss if he's more willing to let-it-rip, or to do a little more situational guess hitting.
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