2013 Rule 5 talk

Honestly, there's a lot of guys that I'd like to protect, but there's only one that I think needs to be protected as of now, and that's Brett Jackson. I'm a fan of Rhee, but let's see how he is at the end of the season. Same with Whitenack - dominating XST options is nice, let's make sure he can dominate upper level guys as well.

I guess, if I tiered it, as of now

Tier 1 - Must Protect

Brett Jackson

Tier 2 - Would like to protect, but let's wait and see (random order)

Trey McNutt

Dae-Eun Rhee

Robert Whitenack

Tier 3 - If we can, it would be nice to protect, but let's wait and see (random order)

Logan Watkins (upper level positional depth that can spot in the big leagues as a utility guy)

Marcus Hatley (one of the few guys, IMO, with late inning ability)

A lefty (Rusin/Raley/Antigua)

An upside arm (Rosario/Peralta, others)

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I could see a guy like Starling Peralta emerge into a must-protect ... or be unprotected because he's just a raw arm that's not polished enough. Same goes for Jose Rosario. I've long been on the Struck wagon, but like Rusin/Raley, it's hard to justify protecting end of the rotation arms unless you have a dozen free spots (and even then, it's still hard). With Rusin/Raley, you have the additional case that they could be pen lefties, so I could understand squeezing one of them in, but if you squeeze one of them in because of their pen lefty potential, then isn't Antigua more valuable, as his pen potential is arguably higher.

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Considering the focal point is on who should have 40 man spots, Kyler Burke should be in the discussion. I'd slate him in with my tier 3 right now.

A lot of things can change though. Say, McNutt moves to the pen (unfortunately, an increasingly likely scenario). If he does well, it would remove some need to protect Hatley, unless Hatley is simply lights out dominant. It's also possible that a guy like Chris Rusin finds his way to the big leagues before the end of the season, making it a potential question of should he stay on the 40.

A lot of tough decisions for the Cubs this winter, as so many guys are lumped together. My take as of today -

Must Protect - Brett Jackson. As disappointing as his season has been, there's power, there's walks, and there's decent-solid defense. Maybe he doesn't develop into a core asset for the future, but he's at least a useful asset as we rebuild.

Tier 2-

a) Trey McNutt. There's still enough power stuff to keep him around. If his breaking ball tightens, he might become the top late inning arm in the system, ahead of Cabrera and Hatley. It seems likely, IMO, that, if he shows well out of the pen, someone would pluck him.

b) Robert Whitenack - The power stuff seems to be coming back. It's too tantalizing an option to let go if you have the space, a potential upper level sinkerballer with decent secondary options. I wonder if someone plucks him if his sinker velocity is there.

c) Jose Rosario - He's having too good of a season and has too much intriguing potential to let go. The problem with putting him higher is, is he a lock to be plucked? In some respects, he might be the type of guy that definitely gets plucked (young, has a heater of an arm), someone you stash for a year and send back to the minors next. I might slide him up a notch.

As of now, I'd personally hope that the above 4 are all protected.

Tier 3

a) Brooks Raley - I never had an issue with Raley when uh ... I forget ... the other poster was around (the issue was more who and what to value). Raley has jumped ahead of Rusin as the better finesse lefty and should be considered as a possible cheap upper level arm that can fill roles. Hard to see him getting plucked, but not impossible.

b) Starling Peralta - If there's a mover in the final few months, it could be Peralta. He's a borderline protect as of now, IMO, but a strong finish could put him in a similar dynamic as Rosario, a young fireballer who could catch attention.

c) Nick Struck - He's a decent upper level starting arm. He's right on the borderline as a guy who might get plucked - he's not like Dae-Eun Rhee last year (too far away), and he's produced, along with being young. The flip side is he doesn't have a huge ceiling as a starter. It's a tough call.

Watch-list

1. Logan Watkins - He's had another summer surge, but he's still more of a UTIL projection, making him always in the netherlands in regards to being protected. On one side is an argument for upper level depth, and his up the middle ability to play all three spots is useful. On the flip side is ... his ability/lack of ceiling.

2. Marcus Hatley - The problem is, I have a hard time seeing them protect a lot of power righty pen options.

3. Jay Jackson - He's reborn. But ... same issue as Hatley. I'd like to keep him around, but how many righty pen arms can you protect?

4. Austin Kirk - Another soft-tossing lefty. Who gets protected and who doesn't will be an interesting decision, but he produces. Thing is ... who takes a young lefty in A+ with his "stuff" and puts it on the big league roster? Seems like the type of guy that you risk exposing, and if he gets taken, you wish him the best and move on.

5. Frank Batista - See above two, but he doesn't have their fastballs. The type of guy where, if he gets plucked, you say to yourself, okay, we lost a possible middle relief arm/borderline setup type. Time to move on.

6. Dae-Eun Rhee - Fastball hasn't been as good, making him more of an end of the rotation arm/middle reliever type. I understood why he wasn't protected last year, but he shouldn't be protected this year as of now.

7. Chris Rusin - It'd be nice to protect him, but you can't protect all your soft-tossing lefties.

8. Kyler Burke - Protecting him would be nice. The issue is that there's a lot of lefties to protect, and his stuff isn't what we hoped for, and he's more of a finesse lefty. Considering how far away he is ... it seems like the type of gamble you make in these decisions to not protect him. Problem is, he could simply walk.

9. Zach Rosscup - A darkhorse to keep in mind, if the reports of his pen velocity earlier shows down the stretch. If he gets taken, so be it.

Two guys that mildly intrigue, but I still have a hard time seeing them protected -

1. Justin Bour - Unlike last year, he started slow this year, but has been really solid since then. Still ... he's not a big HR power guy (scouting reports always said more average HR power with a healthy amount of doubles) ... and there's Rizzo ahead and possibilities behind. It's hard to imagine that someone plucks him.

2. Michael Burgess - Perhaps he should be on my watch list (considering how long it is). Perhaps there's some residual distaste from when I saw him a couple years ago. The numbers suggest a guy that should be at least crossing my mind, although it's tough to imagine a team plucking him for his power to stash on the bench (a lot more reliable veteran options out there to accomplish that).

We're getting to the point where this is getting to be an important topic, so listing, in order, of the guys that I think should be protected, as of today, 8/2:

1. Brett Jackson - Still a no-brainer. It's not inconceivable that he's used as a trade chip this winter, although I don't expect it.

Gigantic Gap

2. Robert Whitenack - Moving him up to 2nd. It's a gigantic gap from Brett, as debatable as Brett has been, but the velocity is there and it's year 1 back. The movement on the fastball seems to be there as well.

Small Gap

3. Jose Rosario - Young power arm has had a solid season. Betting money, by me, is still on the pen as a long run future, but he'll be heading, and teams have shown a tendency to gamble on young power arms in the past.

4. Starling Peralta - One could make the argument that since he profiles better as a starter, that you should slide him ahead of Rosario. A lot will depend on how he finishes, but he's on a very strong run right now.

5. Brooks Raley - Strong run in AAA. Upper level lefty with enough rotation ability to provide depth.

Gap

6. Nick Struck - He's had a good season, and he's young. I know I was leading the charge on Struck a year ago, and it's not that I'm off him, it's just that his ceiling isn't high enough to say that he absolutely has to be protected, as of now, IMO. I'd like it, but I can understand it if they don't.

7. Trey McNutt - Nice power pen arm type, but is he really better than say, a Marcus Hatley? It's debatable, but I'm giving him some rope.

Next three: Hatley, J. Jackson, L. Watkins

I feel like, as of now, I'm really hoping 1-5 is protected.

I agree with your 5, assuming Rosario's healthy. McNutt seems like a lock to be lost, if he's not protected. Someone would take a shot almost certainly. I'd keep Watkins and at this exact point and time, I need to learn more about Rosscup, but he's got to be in serious discussion to hold onto.

- To be clear, the above order is how I want things, but I think the Cubs will protect McNutt.

- Cubs are going to have a lot of decisions on lefties. It's hard to imagine keeping more than 2 additional lefties, and I've got to think Raley gets a spot as of now. Kirk, Rusin, Rosscup, Burke ... I'd hate to lose them, but they are all guys that, if they were picked, you sort of wish them the best and move on.

- Watkins will be interesting. What happens with Cardenas/Valbuena could impact the decision on Watkins. If they keep those two around on the 40, I could see them exposing Watkins. That said, a lot of the pro-Watkins people that were in the organization are reportedly still there, so yeah, I can definitely see him getting a nod as an upper level utility guy. He's been absolutely raking post-SL ASG, and he seems to have these summer months (I think it happened last year as well) where he's on such a roll, it makes you sort of wonder if he might be a passable 2nd tier club starter type of guy.

Didn't realize this, but Villanueva has to be added this offseason.

Oh ... that sucks. He's going to be protected.