UMFan83 wrote:
Is that a mild shocker (Almora over Baez)? I feel like every list or projection I've seen has Baez #1, and then you consider Baez is likely closer to the bigs and has a better track record of producing in the system, BP would have to think Almora's ceiling is a bit higher than Baez's or that Baez is definitely going to end up at 3B, no?
Quote:
1. OF Albert Almora
The Tools: Shows all five; plus projections on hit/power
Strengths: Well-rounded tool collection; feel for the game is outstanding and allows tools to play above grade; 5 arm; 5 run; 6 glove; future hit could be easy 6; excellent bat speed; gets into zone quickly and efficiently; power has above-average potential; shows advanced game skills; lauded for work ethic/makeup; now talent that could move fast.
Weaknesses: Range in CF is tied to read/react skills and instincts, not plus raw speed; lacks high-end physicality; lacks elite tools; upside isn’t as sexy as teammate Javier Baez; aggressive approach has yet to be tested; small professional sample
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division starter
Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; more polished than the average teenager; shows advanced feel and instincts for the game; high floor; respectable ceiling; most likely falls short of star status.
Fantasy Future: .290/.350/.450 from premium defensive position, with 10-15 home run pop, plenty of doubles, and a chance to steal 15-20 bases at a high success rate.
Major league ETA: 2016
2. SS Javier Baez
The Tools: Hit tool could be elite; easy plus-plus raw power; 7 arm
Strengths: Bat speed is off-the-charts; hands are incredible on both sides of the ball; electricity in the bat; very loud contact ability; hit tool could develop into monster status; raw power is at least a 7 and could end up playing that high at full maturity; arm is a 7; actions at shortstop are fluid and easy.
Weaknesses: Wild approach at the plate; swings with violent intensity; taking hacks is putting it mildly; will expand his zone and chase; pitch-recognition skills have been called into question; needs to slow the game down; overplays; range at shortstop only catalyst in down-the-line position change; fringe 5 runner at present who could end up a 4 at physical maturity
Overall Future Potential: 7; all-star level player
Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; plays the game with reckless approach; needs to mature to reach potential; could be very special or very frustrating.
Fantasy Future: If everything clicks, Baez could hit for both a high average and high power (30-plus HR) from a position on the left side of the infield. He could be a monster.
Major league ETA: 2015
3. OF Jorge Soler
The Tools: Big raw power; plus arm
Strengths: 7 raw power; easy bat speed; loud contact off the barrel to all fields; plays with strength and athleticism; solid approach at the plate; recognizes early; will work counts; plus arm; good carry; runs very well for a right fielder; shows some overall feel for the game; assimilation has been smooth (so far).
Weaknesses: Questions about the future utility of the hit tool based on a few mechanical hitches that could limit his ability to stay inside of quality stuff; defensive profile puts pressure on bat to achieve first-division value; unknown hurdles associated with assimilation process; small professional sample.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Explanation of Risk: High risk; shows some now skills and a mature approach, but the bat hasn’t been tested enough; still early in assimilation process.
Fantasy Future: Could develop into a prototypical first-division right fielder; the hit tool might only play at average, but secondary skills should allow for some on-base ability and game power (25-20 HR). Shows good speed for his size and good game awareness, so he could also swipe 10-15 bases a season.
Major league ETA: 2015
4. RHP Arodys Vizcaino
The Tools: Plus-plus fastball; plus curve
Strengths: Easy cheese from an explosive arm, working comfortably in the 92-95 range as a starter and touching the high-90s in bursts; very lively offering with good, late action; hard curve is another money pitch, with a tight rotation and two-plane movement; good control.
Weaknesses: Lacks size; when he slips under the ball, the lack of plane hurts him; more control than command; lives loose in the zone; changeup has more flash than fire; profiles as low-5 offering at best; injury history; delivery features some effort.
Overall Future Potential: 7; late-inning reliever (frontline setup).
Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; injury history; likely to end up in bullpen.
Fantasy Future: Could be frontline setup arm in bullpen; closer for some teams; will miss bats in any role.
Major league ETA: 2011
5. 1B Dan Vogelbach
The Tools: Enormous raw power; plus potential hit tool; big makeup
Strengths: Light-tower power; 80 raw; generates tremendous bat speed with fast hands and fluid hip explosion; stroke is shorter than most power hitters; quick and easy to the ball; doesn’t have to sell out for power stroke; ball naturally explodes off the bat; loud contact to all fields; makeup is championed by every source contacted for the report; big personality.
Weaknesses: Bad body; lacks defensive value; profiles as bat-only first baseman or designated hitter; limited range; poor speed; below-average defender at first; can be beat with pitchability, particularly spotted balls off-middle or quality velo under the hands; immense pressure on the bat for success; will have to prove it at every level.
Overall Future Potential: 6; first-division player
Explanation of Risk: High risk because of bat-only profile; plus makeup and natural hitting ability give him a chance.
Fantasy Future: Power could play above 6; .280-plus batting average is possible; won’t steal bases and won’t provide defensive value of any kind.
Major league ETA: 2016
6. OF Brett Jackson
The Tools: Can show all five tools; four tools grade at avg-to-plus
Strengths: Average defender in center field; can play all three outfield spots; run is plus; raw power is above-average; has on-base skills and will make a pitcher dig into the arsenal; shows a feel for the game; big work ethic.
Weaknesses: Lacks a loud tool; hit tool is fringe-average at best; plays lower; arm is only average; defensive profile in center is only average; game features too much swing-and-miss; overmatched by quality stuff; hasn’t progressed much since college; profile closer to fourth outfielder than role 5 projection.
Overall Future Potential: 5; major-league regular
Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; already achieved major-league level; works hard; competes; good chance to carve out major-league career.
Fantasy Future: If Jackson achieves his ceiling, he could start up the middle, with a low batting average (.~250) and lots of strikeouts, but enough secondary skills to have value (on-base, 15-20 HR, 15-20 steals).
Major league ETA:
7. RHP Pierce Johnson
The Tools: Plus fastball; plus potential curveball
Strengths: Good size and wiry strength; fastball works in the 90-93 range, but he can get more when he needs it; good angle to pitch; good sinking action; can get ahead with the pitch; curveball is hard breaker; 81-84 mph, with late break, good shape, and depth; deep arsenal; will also show a cut fastball and a changeup; knows how to miss bats.
Weaknesses: Hasn’t been able to stay healthy; delivery has some effort; deliberate with secondary arsenal; changeup is inconsistent; doesn’t play as average offering yet.
Overall Future Potential: High 5/Low 6; no. 3 starter at the major-league level
Explanation of Risk: High risk; injury history with the arm; behind the developmental curve.
Fantasy Future: Has bat-missing ability and a deep arsenal; has mid-rotation ceiling; body needs to prove it can hold innings, but should be able to produce good counting stats like wins/strikeouts if healthy and in a rotation.
Major league ETA: 2015
8. RHP Duane Underwood
The Tools: Easy plus velocity in fastball; plus potential curveball
Strengths: Huge arm strength; electric fastball that has the potential to be special; will work in the plus velocity range with some sink; has touched higher; arm is very fast; ball explodes from the release; it's easy velocity now and projects to work even higher; changeup shows some maturity for his age; plays well off fastball, with fastball arm speed and slot consistency; good action to the arm-side; plus athlete; curveball has plus potential
Weaknesses: Limited professional sample; arm works well, but low pickup and drag force it to go a long way; secondary arsenal is immature; delivery is athletic, but inconsistent, and control is below-average at present.
Overall Future Potential: High-6/low-7; no. 2 starter at the major-league level.
Explanation of Risk: Extreme; only 18-years-old; wide gap between present and future; ~10 professional innings under his belt.
Fantasy Future: Electric arsenal could produce high strikeouts totals; has the potential to be a 15-plus game winner (based on ultimate upside).
Major league ETA: 2017
9. 3B Christian Villanueva
The Tools: 7 glove; 6 arm; 5 power potential; big makeup
Strengths: Plus (to plus-plus) defensive profile, with an ultra-slick glove, strong arm, and solid range; excellent feel for the position; soft hands in the field; quick reactions; good instincts for the ball; fast hands at the plate; can square velocity and stay inside pitches; shows the ability to hit for some power; works the gaps; mature approach; isn’t fast, but runs the bases well and plays with intelligence; hard worker.
Weaknesses: Lacks typical offensive profile for third base; shows impressive bat speed, but overall hit tool utility is average at best; struggles against quality breaking stuff; power most likely limited to 10-15 home runs; body is physically mature and could lose a full speed grade if he adds bad weight.
Overall Future Potential: 5; solid-average regular at major-league level
Explanation of Risk: Moderate risk; mature player with mature skill-set; doesn’t need big grade jumps to compete.
Fantasy Future: Not an ideal offensive third baseman, but could hit .260-plus, with good secondary skills (on-base/power); can surprise people and swipe a few bases; plays defense at a very high level.
Major league ETA: 2014
10. RHP Dillon Maples
The Tools: Big arm strength; plus fastball/curveball potential.
Strengths: Plus-plus fastball potential; can work the pitch in the 92-96 range, and has touched higher; has good plane; pitches taller than 6’2’’; natural weight makes the ball difficult to lift; curveball is power breaker, thrown as hard as 82-84 mph, with 12/6 movement; projects as plus pitch; good overall athlete.
Weaknesses: Delivery isn’t fluid or repeatable; doesn’t finish; doesn’t make it look easy; command is well below-average; fastball velocity is inconsistent; changeup is still underdeveloped; limited on-the-field experience at the professional level
Overall Future Potential: High 6; no. 2/3 starter at the major-league level.
Explanation of Risk: Extreme risk; injury history; mechanical red flags; needs big grade jumps.
Fantasy Future: Has the potential to pitch in the middle of a major-league rotation, and maybe more if he reaches his ceiling. He will have the stuff to miss bats, and could emerge as a rotation horse if he can stay healthy and find arsenal maturity. High ceiling, but extremely high risk.
Major league ETA: 2017
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Prospects on the Rise
RHP Juan Carlos Paniagua
SS/2B Marco Hernandez
3B Jeimer Candelario
Factors on the Farm (Prospects likely to contribute at the ML level in 2013)
RHP Tony Zych
RHP Trey McNutt
IF Junior Lake
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Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (born 4/1/87 or later)
1. Starlin Castro
2. Anthony Rizzo
3. Albert Almora
4. Javier Baez
5. Jorge Soler
6. Arodys Vizcaino
7. Dan Vogelbach
8. Brett Jackson
9. Pierce Johnson
10. Duane Underwood
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...The biggest thing for the Cubs next year will be the development of their lower-level talents. The big-league team will continue to suffer, but the Cubs have a valuable asset in the trade market with Matt Garza, who will be a free agent after the season. The high-upside talent at the bottom of the system should be supplemented with a nice package of prospects if and when Theo Epstein and company decide to pull the trigger on a Garza deal.
A Parting Thought:….With a casual glance, the Cubs system might appear to be top heavy, with a partisan lean towards high-ceiling bats. But the deeper you dig, the more raw talent you discover on the mound, and even though it’s immature and a sizeable journey away from legitimacy, the talent is there to develop high-ceiling arms to match the high-ceiling bats.
If that was against site policy I can take it down. It's not all the info or the full article...I cut a lot of it out.
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