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Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.

Baez in a landslide for me.

Why are you using these labels?

I prefer the more productive hitter. I don't care what style of hitter either ends up as. What matters is which one ends up being more effective in the production of runs.

Ditto.

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Yeah, Lindor had a nice walk rate, but hitting .257 with a .707 OPS in the MWL, even at 18, doesn't scream "safe prospect" to me.

As TT alluded to, Lindor's hit tool and ability is still a question mark. He is by no means that safe a prospect.

I thought Lindor was a bit over-hyped his draft year, and I still feel that way. Now, that doesn't mean that I don't think he's a good talent - he is. Furthermore, when you consider that we had Castro in the big, and considering the depth at shortstop we have now, well, I really wouldn't even ponder Lindor over Baez.

Offensively, I'm not sure I see a gigantic difference from Lindor to Matt Szczur, so if we want a "safe" (and neither guy is really safe) "prototypical leadoff guy", well, we have one.

Baez might well bust, but there should be no 2nd guessing on that pick, particularly at this stage, IMO.

That BB:K rate is pretty impressive for an 18 year-old. And with his glove, he really doesn't need to be that much more productive to be a valuable player. I'd still take Baez easily though. There aren't a lot of prospects with his power.

Baez - much higher ceiling

This isn't close for me. I'd take Baez 100 times out of 100.

I still like Junior Lake as a prospect. I'm all about the guy with the crazier raw tools.

Thank you for making the utterly obvious point that you prefer to have the player who will ultimately end up as better run producer in the majors, while still not answering the question. Which player do you think will "up being more effective in the production of runs?"

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Don Denkinger = God

Javier Baez, I'd rather have him than several guys selected before him. I think we lucked out he fell to us.

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I'm more concerned with correcting antiquated thinking than I am with answering an obvious question.

It's not an obvious question (which I note you still haven't answered). It's like telling someone you're voting for the candidate that you think will be a better president. Gee, thanks.

In any event, while his labeling is imprecise, unnecessary, and oversimplifies the question as to these specific players, there's nothing "antiquated" about the question whether you would rather have the player with the higher floor or the player with the higher ceiling. While the right answer is contingent upon the height of each player's floor and ceiling, and the likelihood of reaching various points in between, this is hardly an antiquated issue.

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Don Denkinger = God

Look at the answers on this page. That's my answer.

There is definitely something antiquated about referring to hitters as "leadoff hitters" and "hacking sluggers" and indicating a preference between the two. It's unnecessary and it's tangential to what really matters. Production.


Roles are [expletive]. Give me 8 really productive hitters, regardless of type, and I guarantee that'll work better than trying to set up a lineup filling different made up roles.

BA had Baez ranked 12 spots higher than Lindor.

Yeah, this thought had entered my mind recently. At this very moment, I'd take Baez over Lindor, Bradley, Starling, and Hultzen. Likely Bauer as well. Bundy and Cole are the only guys who I'd no doubt rather have. Certainly, this list can and probably will change over the next few years.

Of course Jose Fernandez has surpassed Baez and many more of those prospects you mentioned and he was picked 14th in the 2011 draft. Just goes to show you what an incredible draft 2011 was.

some of you guys have serious battered women's syndrome. time after time you get excited over physically gifted hitters with no perception of the strike zone, and once that particular prospect fails, you find another just like him to inevitably get burned by.

considering our farm system over the past 20 years has been as bad as nearly any in baseball in terms of developing hitters, i don't think its a reach at all to be nervous about ANOTHER top hitting prospect who hacks at practically anything thrown his way.

It is as if you read absolutely nothing in the thread.

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The greatest trick the devil ever pulled was to convince the world he didn't exist.

What an odd post to quote for that rant.

Baez might be a hacker who never becomes anything at higher levels, or he might improve at laying off pitches since he has 320 professional PAs and pitchers are going to continue to avoid giving him good pitches to hit since he can destroy mistakes. Given the regime change, I don't think previous decades of Cubs hitting development is all that relevant here.

Lindor might be a hyper-patient leadoff man who gives OBP and great defense at a premium position, or he might lack both the hit tool and the pop to make pitchers pay for mistakes so that IsoD vanishes when he faces pitchers that can pound the zone effectively.

Personally, for now I'm siding with the guy who has elite bat speed, light tower power, and limited professional PAs to become a bit more discerning over the 18 year old with the great walk rate and defense who needs to make strides in both hitting and hitting for power. Characterizing that position as "battered women syndrome", especially when that isn't exactly a rogue idea in the prospecting world, is a bit ridiculous.

True enough, trans. I do think it will take more than becoming "a bit more discerning". That makes it sounds as if it will be almost trivial and highly probable.

There are lots of talented bats outside of the Cubs failed development program who have also struggled to adapt to advanced pitching.

Such a battered woman.

I do think a lot of Cubs fans sort of gloss over the bad half of Baez's "High ceiling/low floor" combo. Not so much here but elsewhere.

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Team Theo.