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 Post subject: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:50 am 
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Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:27 pm 
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StylesClash wrote:
Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.

Baez in a landslide for me.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:34 pm 
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StylesClash wrote:
Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.


Why are you using these labels?

I prefer the more productive hitter. I don't care what style of hitter either ends up as. What matters is which one ends up being more effective in the production of runs.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:47 pm 
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Tim wrote:
StylesClash wrote:
Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.

Baez in a landslide for me.

Ditto.

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:51 pm 
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Yeah, Lindor had a nice walk rate, but hitting .257 with a .707 OPS in the MWL, even at 18, doesn't scream "safe prospect" to me.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 12:56 pm 
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As TT alluded to, Lindor's hit tool and ability is still a question mark. He is by no means that safe a prospect.

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:41 pm 
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I thought Lindor was a bit over-hyped his draft year, and I still feel that way. Now, that doesn't mean that I don't think he's a good talent - he is. Furthermore, when you consider that we had Castro in the big, and considering the depth at shortstop we have now, well, I really wouldn't even ponder Lindor over Baez.

Offensively, I'm not sure I see a gigantic difference from Lindor to Matt Szczur, so if we want a "safe" (and neither guy is really safe) "prototypical leadoff guy", well, we have one.

Baez might well bust, but there should be no 2nd guessing on that pick, particularly at this stage, IMO.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 1:49 pm 
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Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Yeah, Lindor had a nice walk rate, but hitting .257 with a .707 OPS in the MWL, even at 18, doesn't scream "safe prospect" to me.

That BB:K rate is pretty impressive for an 18 year-old. And with his glove, he really doesn't need to be that much more productive to be a valuable player. I'd still take Baez easily though. There aren't a lot of prospects with his power.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 6:30 pm 
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Baez - much higher ceiling


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 7:21 pm 
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This isn't close for me. I'd take Baez 100 times out of 100.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:01 pm 
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I still like Junior Lake as a prospect. I'm all about the guy with the crazier raw tools.

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:31 am 
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David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:
Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.


Why are you using these labels?

I prefer the more productive hitter. I don't care what style of hitter either ends up as. What matters is which one ends up being more effective in the production of runs.


Thank you for making the utterly obvious point that you prefer to have the player who will ultimately end up as better run producer in the majors, while still not answering the question. Which player do you think will "up being more effective in the production of runs?"

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:35 am 
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Javier Baez, I'd rather have him than several guys selected before him. I think we lucked out he fell to us.

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:40 am 
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Warren Brusstar wrote:
David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:
Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.


Why are you using these labels?

I prefer the more productive hitter. I don't care what style of hitter either ends up as. What matters is which one ends up being more effective in the production of runs.


Thank you for making the utterly obvious point that you prefer to have the player who will ultimately end up as better run producer in the majors, while still not answering the question. Which player do you think will "up being more effective in the production of runs?"


I'm more concerned with correcting antiquated thinking than I am with answering an obvious question.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:51 am 
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David wrote:
Warren Brusstar wrote:
David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:
Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.


Why are you using these labels?

I prefer the more productive hitter. I don't care what style of hitter either ends up as. What matters is which one ends up being more effective in the production of runs.


Thank you for making the utterly obvious point that you prefer to have the player who will ultimately end up as better run producer in the majors, while still not answering the question. Which player do you think will "up being more effective in the production of runs?"


I'm more concerned with correcting antiquated thinking than I am with answering an obvious question.


It's not an obvious question (which I note you still haven't answered). It's like telling someone you're voting for the candidate that you think will be a better president. Gee, thanks.

In any event, while his labeling is imprecise, unnecessary, and oversimplifies the question as to these specific players, there's nothing "antiquated" about the question whether you would rather have the player with the higher floor or the player with the higher ceiling. While the right answer is contingent upon the height of each player's floor and ceiling, and the likelihood of reaching various points in between, this is hardly an antiquated issue.

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Thu Nov 15, 2012 10:58 am 
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Warren Brusstar wrote:
David wrote:
Warren Brusstar wrote:
David wrote:
StylesClash wrote:
Considering Lindor and Baez were taken with consecutive selections, I thought it would be interesting to ask whether or not anyone wishes we had the opportunity to select Lindor instead. Mind you I understand Baez has the much higher upside, but I look at Lindor as being the safe bet top positional prospect we rarely have.

Lindor should develop into a GG caliber shortstop with the level of pitch recognition needed to be an above average leadoff man. Baez though seems to be the exact opposite of Lindor. Doesn't take walks, has massive power and doesn't have the ideal shortstop frame. So what it comes down to is would you prefer to have an above average defensive shortstop with leadoff caliber tools, or Baez's lightning quick bat and hope that his ability to layoff pitchers pitches improves. Maybe I'm just a jaded fan who has seen too many Corey Patterson's over the years but I prefer the prototypical leadoff man to the hacking slugger.


Why are you using these labels?

I prefer the more productive hitter. I don't care what style of hitter either ends up as. What matters is which one ends up being more effective in the production of runs.


Thank you for making the utterly obvious point that you prefer to have the player who will ultimately end up as better run producer in the majors, while still not answering the question. Which player do you think will "up being more effective in the production of runs?"


I'm more concerned with correcting antiquated thinking than I am with answering an obvious question.


It's not an obvious question (which I note you still haven't answered). It's like telling someone you're voting for the candidate that you think will be a better president. Gee, thanks.

In any event, while his labeling is imprecise, unnecessary, and oversimplifies the question as to these specific players, there's nothing "antiquated" about the question whether you would rather have the player with the higher floor or the player with the higher ceiling. While the right answer is contingent upon the height of each player's floor and ceiling, and the likelihood of reaching various points in between, this is hardly an antiquated issue.


Look at the answers on this page. That's my answer.

There is definitely something antiquated about referring to hitters as "leadoff hitters" and "hacking sluggers" and indicating a preference between the two. It's unnecessary and it's tangential to what really matters. Production.


Roles are [expletive]. Give me 8 really productive hitters, regardless of type, and I guarantee that'll work better than trying to set up a lineup filling different made up roles.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 11:47 pm 
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Andy (Lynchburg, VA): I'm curious as to what any difference is that you see between Lindor as opposed to Correa/Baez. Most other publications have them ranked very closely together and/or with Lindor being ranked higher than the other two. Yet BA seems to have Lindor clearly ranked as the "lowest" of the three. Any specific reason you feel the others are clearly ahead of him?

J.J. Cooper: The bat. Baez and Lindor have been compared ever since they were part of the same draft class. At the time, the thought was Lindor was a solid offensive SS while Baez was likely to be a better bat but one that would have to move to 3B or elsewhere. Baez has answered some concerns about his ability to stay at SS and has continued to show outstanding potential at the plate. It's not that Lindor is a slouch at the plate, but he doesn't have nearly the power Baez has. In Correa's case. He could come close to matching Lindor defensively with a bat like Baez.


BA had Baez ranked 12 spots higher than Lindor.

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:10 am 
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illiniguy wrote:
Javier Baez, I'd rather have him than several guys selected before him. I think we lucked out he fell to us.


Yeah, this thought had entered my mind recently. At this very moment, I'd take Baez over Lindor, Bradley, Starling, and Hultzen. Likely Bauer as well. Bundy and Cole are the only guys who I'd no doubt rather have. Certainly, this list can and probably will change over the next few years.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Fri Mar 08, 2013 12:16 am 
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Gilby wrote:
illiniguy wrote:
Javier Baez, I'd rather have him than several guys selected before him. I think we lucked out he fell to us.


Yeah, this thought had entered my mind recently. At this very moment, I'd take Baez over Lindor, Bradley, Starling, and Hultzen. Likely Bauer as well. Bundy and Cole are the only guys who I'd no doubt rather have. Certainly, this list can and probably will change over the next few years.


Of course Jose Fernandez has surpassed Baez and many more of those prospects you mentioned and he was picked 14th in the 2011 draft. Just goes to show you what an incredible draft 2011 was.

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Sat Mar 09, 2013 5:43 am 
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CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Quote:
Andy (Lynchburg, VA): I'm curious as to what any difference is that you see between Lindor as opposed to Correa/Baez. Most other publications have them ranked very closely together and/or with Lindor being ranked higher than the other two. Yet BA seems to have Lindor clearly ranked as the "lowest" of the three. Any specific reason you feel the others are clearly ahead of him?

J.J. Cooper: The bat. Baez and Lindor have been compared ever since they were part of the same draft class. At the time, the thought was Lindor was a solid offensive SS while Baez was likely to be a better bat but one that would have to move to 3B or elsewhere. Baez has answered some concerns about his ability to stay at SS and has continued to show outstanding potential at the plate. It's not that Lindor is a slouch at the plate, but he doesn't have nearly the power Baez has. In Correa's case. He could come close to matching Lindor defensively with a bat like Baez.


BA had Baez ranked 12 spots higher than Lindor.


some of you guys have serious battered women's syndrome. time after time you get excited over physically gifted hitters with no perception of the strike zone, and once that particular prospect fails, you find another just like him to inevitably get burned by.

considering our farm system over the past 20 years has been as bad as nearly any in baseball in terms of developing hitters, i don't think its a reach at all to be nervous about ANOTHER top hitting prospect who hacks at practically anything thrown his way.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Sat Mar 09, 2013 8:18 am 
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It is as if you read absolutely nothing in the thread.

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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Sat Mar 09, 2013 8:33 am 
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What an odd post to quote for that rant.

Baez might be a hacker who never becomes anything at higher levels, or he might improve at laying off pitches since he has 320 professional PAs and pitchers are going to continue to avoid giving him good pitches to hit since he can destroy mistakes. Given the regime change, I don't think previous decades of Cubs hitting development is all that relevant here.

Lindor might be a hyper-patient leadoff man who gives OBP and great defense at a premium position, or he might lack both the hit tool and the pop to make pitchers pay for mistakes so that IsoD vanishes when he faces pitchers that can pound the zone effectively.

Personally, for now I'm siding with the guy who has elite bat speed, light tower power, and limited professional PAs to become a bit more discerning over the 18 year old with the great walk rate and defense who needs to make strides in both hitting and hitting for power. Characterizing that position as "battered women syndrome", especially when that isn't exactly a rogue idea in the prospecting world, is a bit ridiculous.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Sat Mar 09, 2013 9:16 am 
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True enough, trans. I do think it will take more than becoming "a bit more discerning". That makes it sounds as if it will be almost trivial and highly probable.

There are lots of talented bats outside of the Cubs failed development program who have also struggled to adapt to advanced pitching.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:26 pm 
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Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
What an odd post to quote for that rant.

Baez might be a hacker who never becomes anything at higher levels, or he might improve at laying off pitches since he has 320 professional PAs and pitchers are going to continue to avoid giving him good pitches to hit since he can destroy mistakes. Given the regime change, I don't think previous decades of Cubs hitting development is all that relevant here.

Lindor might be a hyper-patient leadoff man who gives OBP and great defense at a premium position, or he might lack both the hit tool and the pop to make pitchers pay for mistakes so that IsoD vanishes when he faces pitchers that can pound the zone effectively.

Personally, for now I'm siding with the guy who has elite bat speed, light tower power, and limited professional PAs to become a bit more discerning over the 18 year old with the great walk rate and defense who needs to make strides in both hitting and hitting for power. Characterizing that position as "battered women syndrome", especially when that isn't exactly a rogue idea in the prospecting world, is a bit ridiculous.


Such a battered woman.


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 Post subject: Re: Lindor vs Baez
PostPosted: Mon Mar 11, 2013 12:31 pm 
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I do think a lot of Cubs fans sort of gloss over the bad half of Baez's "High ceiling/low floor" combo. Not so much here but elsewhere.


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