I hope things don't go wrong either, but more often than not, it's a safer bet to assume that at least one of a team's top 3-4 prospects will falter.
In saying that ... how is 2016 ... negative? To me, it seems like a decently positive scenario. Not a great scenario, but decently positive. Early signs point to Soler starting in Peoria. If that's the case, 2013 starts in Peoria and maybe finishes in Daytona. Maybe Tennessee. At some point in 2014, if all goes well, he goes through some combination of Daytona/Tennessee/Iowa, maybe a cup of tea in the bigs. 2015 would be "finishing school" in AAA. That seems decently positive for a guy who has some swing kinks to work out.
As for Vizcaino, I guess I can buy the idea that, after a spell in the minors, they might call him up on some sort of innings limit as a starter. But considering his previous high was around 115 innings for a season, and considering he's coming off TJ, it's hard for me to see him log too many innings this year in the bigs as a starter. But maybe they are planning on it.
Let me play the optimist and lay out a best case for each prospect.
Baez: Having held his own in the AFL this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Baez started in AA if he has a strong spring. At that point, it is really only a more refined approach at the plate holding him back from 3B at Wrigley field.
Almora: Scouts were pretty universal in saying that he was likely to be the first high schooler from that draft to reach the majors. He could easily start in Peoria this year and end in Daytona. I could see him manning CF at Wrigley as early as May 2015 (as soon as possible to delay super 2)
Soler: I've heard a few rumblings about holes in his swing, but his 6% strikeout rate in 88 PA's in Peoria says that A-ball pitchers sure couldn't exploit them. I think he'll start in Daytona and best case would have him in Wrigley by the end of 2014.
Vizcaino: He'll be in Wrigley as soon as he proves he's healthy enough. Unless he flops, I can't see a scenario where he's not in Wrigley in August.
Will all of those happen? Almost certainly not. Any of those guys could flame out and never make it. But I bet at least one of the top three will make it on the accelerated timeframe.