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NSBB Top 50 Prospects

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:05 pm

What's everyone's thoughts on ETA's for the top 4?

Baez- Late 2014, start of 2015?

Soler- Start of 2014 (ideally takes over LF/RF for Soriano/Dejsus after this year)?

Almora- 2015?

Vizcaino- Sometime in 2013 depending on role/health?
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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby David » Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:26 pm

KyleJRM wrote:I don't like Vizcaino's future as a SP. I like his future as a RP a lot, though, so I don't think that matters much.

Baez/Almora/Soler/Vizcaino for me, though I could easily be persuaded to flop the last two.

I'd say there's a 25% chance that this time next year Almora is No. 1, and there's a 25% chance that Baez is top-5 in all of baseball.


God I hope Baez just rakes in AA.
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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Tim » Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:27 am

David wrote:
KyleJRM wrote:I don't like Vizcaino's future as a SP. I like his future as a RP a lot, though, so I don't think that matters much.

Baez/Almora/Soler/Vizcaino for me, though I could easily be persuaded to flop the last two.

I'd say there's a 25% chance that this time next year Almora is No. 1, and there's a 25% chance that Baez is top-5 in all of baseball.


God I hope Baez just rakes in AA.

Honestly, I think he may struggle until he learns to take some more pitches.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Nov 30, 2012 7:39 am

Cubswin11 wrote:What's everyone's thoughts on ETA's for the top 4?

Baez- Late 2014, start of 2015?

Soler- Start of 2014 (ideally takes over LF/RF for Soriano/Dejsus after this year)?

Almora- 2015?

Vizcaino- Sometime in 2013 depending on role/health?


Baez - Best case I see is late 2014. That would require him to rake in A+ this year (2013), hit AA next year and absolutely dominate. It's just tough to buy that right now, IMO, considering his tendencies. Thus, I think mid-late 2015 might be more realistic.

Soler - Really no clue. My hunch is that he might follow a Rizzo-like path and needing time to adjust when he gets to the smarter pitchers in the upper levels. I'll go 2016, which IMO, is still positive (has him dominating in A ball ranks this year, hitting AA at some point in 2014).

Almora - Like Soler, really just too far off to get an accurate gauge. I would guess the hope is roughly late 2015/2016 as well.

Vizcaino - If they keep him as a starter and he shows well, I think he starts in the minors on an innings limits early. As the innings start to run out, I could see them move him to the pen and perhaps call him up for a cup of tea in 2013. Then the hope would be that he has built up enough innings to be a full-season (albeit, perhaps limited) starter in 2014.

All this assumes a lot goes well ... and it's just as possible that a lot goes ... wrong.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Fri Nov 30, 2012 7:41 am

I too go Baez, Soler, Almora and Vizcaino in that order. I buy Vizcaino as a starter but there is a gap after the top 3 because of his health.

I actually have my top 30 done, I need to post it in the other thread when I have a little time this weekend.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby David » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:11 am

Tim wrote:
David wrote:
KyleJRM wrote:I don't like Vizcaino's future as a SP. I like his future as a RP a lot, though, so I don't think that matters much.

Baez/Almora/Soler/Vizcaino for me, though I could easily be persuaded to flop the last two.

I'd say there's a 25% chance that this time next year Almora is No. 1, and there's a 25% chance that Baez is top-5 in all of baseball.


God I hope Baez just rakes in AA.

Honestly, I think he may struggle until he learns to take some more pitches.


I have no idea why I said AA and not A+, but either way, yea, I agree.
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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby David » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:12 am

toonsterwu wrote:
Cubswin11 wrote:What's everyone's thoughts on ETA's for the top 4?

Baez- Late 2014, start of 2015?

Soler- Start of 2014 (ideally takes over LF/RF for Soriano/Dejsus after this year)?

Almora- 2015?

Vizcaino- Sometime in 2013 depending on role/health?


Baez - Best case I see is late 2014. That would require him to rake in A+ this year (2013), hit AA next year and absolutely dominate. It's just tough to buy that right now, IMO, considering his tendencies. Thus, I think mid-late 2015 might be more realistic.

Soler - Really no clue. My hunch is that he might follow a Rizzo-like path and needing time to adjust when he gets to the smarter pitchers in the upper levels. I'll go 2016, which IMO, is still positive (has him dominating in A ball ranks this year, hitting AA at some point in 2014).

Almora - Like Soler, really just too far off to get an accurate gauge. I would guess the hope is roughly late 2015/2016 as well.

Vizcaino - If they keep him as a starter and he shows well, I think he starts in the minors on an innings limits early. As the innings start to run out, I could see them move him to the pen and perhaps call him up for a cup of tea in 2013. Then the hope would be that he has built up enough innings to be a full-season (albeit, perhaps limited) starter in 2014.

All this assumes a lot goes well ... and it's just as possible that a lot goes ... wrong.


Good God, I hope not.

As for Vizcaino, I think they've publicly said that they expect him to be in the rotation mix at some point next year, but I could be wrong about that (and things also might not go according to plan).
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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby A New Era » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:39 am

I think

Baez - Likely 2016
Almora - Likely 2016 (no matter how advanced he is he's 18/19yo)
Soler - Likely late 2014 early 2015 (I think one reason they went hard after Soler is they think he just needs a couple years polish, he is 22 after all)
Vizciano - given some innings as a starter after our 2013 SP selloff and a spot opens, not too many innings, just to see what he can show)
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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:42 am

I hope things don't go wrong either, but more often than not, it's a safer bet to assume that at least one of a team's top 3-4 prospects will falter.

In saying that ... how is 2016 ... negative? To me, it seems like a decently positive scenario. Not a great scenario, but decently positive. Early signs point to Soler starting in Peoria. If that's the case, 2013 starts in Peoria and maybe finishes in Daytona. Maybe Tennessee. At some point in 2014, if all goes well, he goes through some combination of Daytona/Tennessee/Iowa, maybe a cup of tea in the bigs. 2015 would be "finishing school" in AAA. That seems decently positive for a guy who has some swing kinks to work out.

As for Vizcaino, I guess I can buy the idea that, after a spell in the minors, they might call him up on some sort of innings limit as a starter. But considering his previous high was around 115 innings for a season, and considering he's coming off TJ, it's hard for me to see him log too many innings this year in the bigs as a starter. But maybe they are planning on it.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby David » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:09 am

toonsterwu wrote:I hope things don't go wrong either, but more often than not, it's a safer bet to assume that at least one of a team's top 3-4 prospects will falter.

In saying that ... how is 2016 ... negative? To me, it seems like a decently positive scenario. Not a great scenario, but decently positive. Early signs point to Soler starting in Peoria. If that's the case, 2013 starts in Peoria and maybe finishes in Daytona. Maybe Tennessee. At some point in 2014, if all goes well, he goes through some combination of Daytona/Tennessee/Iowa, maybe a cup of tea in the bigs. 2015 would be "finishing school" in AAA. That seems decently positive for a guy who has some swing kinks to work out.


2016 is 4 years from now (well, I guess it's actually 3). I'm hopeful that Soler is closer to Major League ready than that... I mean, it wouldn't be a tragedy, as he'd only be 24, but I was hoping 2015 was more like it.

I also was thinking he was 22 and not 20 when I said that, so yea, all things considered, it's not nearly as bad as I had originally thought. I still hope it's sooner, though.
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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Tim » Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:42 am

Almora:

Fangraphs

Baseball-Reference

MiLB

First Inning

Almora was signed to a $3.25M bonus as the #6 pick in the 2012 draft. He made a quick transition to pro ball with a solid performance in Arizona and earned a late promotion to Boise.

Almora has two outstanding tools. He makes consistent hard contact at the plate and should be able to carry a high batting average throughout his career. Scouts also say that his defense is already major-league capable in CF and there should be no questions about his ability to stay in center as a major league player.

Almora is considered to have "off-the-charts" makeup that allow him to play above his tools. He is also considered a great instinctual player. This allows him to provide value in the field and on the bases despite only slightly above average speed. His make-up also leads most talent evaluators to believe he will make quick adjustments in the minors and he is likely to be the first high-school player from his draft class to reach the majors.

If there is any major concern to his performance in the minors so far, it is undoubtably the lack of patience shown at the plate. With only 2 BB in 145 PA in his first exposure to pro ball, it will be critical for Almora to develop a better approach as he moves up the ladder.

The limitations in his tools ultimately constrain the ceiling for Almora. He lacks the immense offensive potential of the other top position prospects for the Cubs. However, he is as safe a bet as there is for a high school draftee to be a solid contributor at the next level.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Tim » Fri Nov 30, 2012 10:56 am

toonsterwu wrote:I hope things don't go wrong either, but more often than not, it's a safer bet to assume that at least one of a team's top 3-4 prospects will falter.

In saying that ... how is 2016 ... negative? To me, it seems like a decently positive scenario. Not a great scenario, but decently positive. Early signs point to Soler starting in Peoria. If that's the case, 2013 starts in Peoria and maybe finishes in Daytona. Maybe Tennessee. At some point in 2014, if all goes well, he goes through some combination of Daytona/Tennessee/Iowa, maybe a cup of tea in the bigs. 2015 would be "finishing school" in AAA. That seems decently positive for a guy who has some swing kinks to work out.

As for Vizcaino, I guess I can buy the idea that, after a spell in the minors, they might call him up on some sort of innings limit as a starter. But considering his previous high was around 115 innings for a season, and considering he's coming off TJ, it's hard for me to see him log too many innings this year in the bigs as a starter. But maybe they are planning on it.

Let me play the optimist and lay out a best case for each prospect.

Baez: Having held his own in the AFL this year, I wouldn't be surprised to see Baez started in AA if he has a strong spring. At that point, it is really only a more refined approach at the plate holding him back from 3B at Wrigley field.

Almora: Scouts were pretty universal in saying that he was likely to be the first high schooler from that draft to reach the majors. He could easily start in Peoria this year and end in Daytona. I could see him manning CF at Wrigley as early as May 2015 (as soon as possible to delay super 2)

Soler: I've heard a few rumblings about holes in his swing, but his 6% strikeout rate in 88 PA's in Peoria says that A-ball pitchers sure couldn't exploit them. I think he'll start in Daytona and best case would have him in Wrigley by the end of 2014.

Vizcaino: He'll be in Wrigley as soon as he proves he's healthy enough. Unless he flops, I can't see a scenario where he's not in Wrigley in August.

-------------------------------------------------

Will all of those happen? Almost certainly not. Any of those guys could flame out and never make it. But I bet at least one of the top three will make it on the accelerated timeframe.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby rawaction » Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:31 am

I think it is underestimated how quick the top guys could move. If Baez and Soler rake at high A, they could move to AA in a couple months. AAA isn't NE necessary for elite prospects who are not blocked in the majors....especially on a bad team. If Baez especially is a top 10 prospect after this year, best case is he's up in 2014 in mid June. Solers timetable may not be that fast, bbased on less pro experience than Baez.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby illiniguy » Fri Nov 30, 2012 12:51 pm

I think Javy will be up whenever the hell he wants to be up.
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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby toonsterwu » Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:29 pm

If I went the optimistic route, yes, I'd agree that Baez would be up at some point in 2014. Optimistically, I could see Almora/Soler with cups of coffee late in 2014 as well (it would have them rake the heck out of the ball this year, force their way up to A+ or AA and then dominate the heck out of things in AA next year).

If I had to take a guess at who would make it on an accelerated path (relative to typical expectations), as of now, I'd probably go with Almora.

One thing is certain, though ... this is a big year for all of our prospects. If some guys don't push their way up, it's not hard to envision the rebuilding take more time.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:40 pm

It's a lot to assume that these prospects will never struggle on the way up and that the front office will reverse course on taking prospects slowly.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby David » Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:45 pm

KyleJRM wrote:It's a lot to assume that these prospects will never struggle on the way up and that the front office will reverse course on taking prospects slowly.


Which is why people are talking about perhaps one of those guys taking that optimistic path.
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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Tim » Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:55 pm

Which is why I explicitly said "optimistic" and "best case"

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby 17 Seconds » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:52 pm

if soler doesn't reach the majors until 2016, that probably means he sucks

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby davell » Fri Nov 30, 2012 9:59 pm

If I'm trying to comp the big 3 out, I'll go with Sheffield for Baez, with more K's, Beltran with 20/20 instead of 30/30 potential, but a better hit tool for Almora, and Dye seems like a solid comp for Soler. Personally, I've got them, followed by Vizcaino, in that order. As far as Soler's ETA, I can see him starting in Kane County and if he tears it up, possibly skipping to Tennesse around midseason. At any rate, if he progresses as he should, I think he'll see the majors before Baez, by a bit.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Tim » Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:07 pm

davell wrote:If I'm trying to comp the big 3 out, I'll go with Sheffield for Baez, with more K's, Beltran with 20/20 instead of 30/30 potential, but a better hit tool for Almora, and Dye seems like a solid comp for Soler. Personally, I've got them, followed by Vizcaino, in that order. As far as Soler's ETA, I can see him starting in Kane County and if he tears it up, possibly skipping to Tennesse around midseason. At any rate, if he progresses as he should, I think he'll see the majors before Baez, by a bit.

Baez and Almora will have to get a hell of a lot more patient to reach Sheffield / Beltran levels of production.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby davell » Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:57 pm

Wow, I thought Sheff was a contact machine, didn't remember him walking as much as he did.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Cubs Fan Dan » Sat Dec 01, 2012 10:54 am

I will give my guess and comps.

Vogelbach - mid 2014 -My guess is that if he is not traded Vogelbac continues to rake and beats all 3 of these guys. (crazy hunch). I think he could be traded but would not doubt he plays LF some this year and the Cubs sacrific defense for his hitting ability.
Baez - Late 2014 - Vlad Guerrero type hitter, shorter quicker swing but similar approach.
Soler - 2015 Starting RF - I love the Jermaine Dye comp someone gave earlier.
Almora - Late 2015 - I do not remember where but I like the Michael Young(in his prime) comps I have heard.

Viscaino - 2013 sees some time.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby Tim » Mon Dec 03, 2012 9:57 am

Technically, we'll have to add Fujikawa to the list.

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Re: NSBB Top 30 Prospects

Postby sneakypower » Mon Dec 03, 2012 11:41 am

davell wrote:If I'm trying to comp the big 3 out, I'll go with Sheffield for Baez, with more K's, Beltran with 20/20 instead of 30/30 potential, but a better hit tool for Almora, and Dye seems like a solid comp for Soler. Personally, I've got them, followed by Vizcaino, in that order. As far as Soler's ETA, I can see him starting in Kane County and if he tears it up, possibly skipping to Tennesse around midseason. At any rate, if he progresses as he should, I think he'll see the majors before Baez, by a bit.

not singling you out, but this makes me nuts, HOF comparisons for prospects with a bunch of qualifiers when there are much more reasonable players to compare them to

"Beltran with 20/20 instead of 30/30 potential, but a better hit tool"; you're basically just describing Johnny Damon there

Sheffield with more K's describes...every other power hitter that doesn't average a superhuman 60 strikeouts a season? he had 39 HR and 55 K in a season once!
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