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2nd Tier Prospects

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CubsWin
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2nd Tier Prospects

Postby CubsWin » Sun Dec 08, 2013 2:13 pm

I tend to think of hitting prospects that are likely to help the team win a championship as the guys who'll be up by the time they're 22 and be long-term (9-10 year) starters. The future all-stars. But teams like the Cardinals are producing a different type of prospect. He generally is entering the bigs at age 26 or 27 and has displayed well above-average OBP skills and will be a starter for 3-5 years. Guys like Allan Craig, Matt Carpenter and David Freese. They're college draftees often 22 or 23 in their first pro season and taken in rounds 4-14 or along those lines.

Theo and company have only had two drafts and have focused heavily on pitching during those rounds, but one guy who fits that profile is Stephen Bruno who unfortunately got injured early last year. Prior to the injury, however, he was producing similar numbers at similar ages/levels as Craig, Carpenter, Freese, etc.

I've often completely disregarded any minor leaguer above the age of 23 at the lower levels, instead dreaming big on the Candelarios of the world. But it seems I need to expand my horizons.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby David » Sun Dec 08, 2013 2:28 pm

CubsWin wrote:I tend to think of hitting prospects that are likely to help the team win a championship as the guys who'll be up by the time they're 22 and be long-term (9-10 year) starters. The future all-stars. But teams like the Cardinals are producing a different type of prospect. He generally is entering the bigs at age 26 or 27 and has displayed well above-average OBP skills and will be a starter for 3-5 years. Guys like Allan Craig, Matt Carpenter and David Freese. They're college draftees often 22 or 23 in their first pro season and taken in rounds 4-14 or along those lines.

Theo and company have only had two drafts and have focused heavily on pitching during those rounds, but one guy who fits that profile is Stephen Bruno who unfortunately got injured early last year. Prior to the injury, however, he was producing similar numbers at similar ages/levels as Craig, Carpenter, Freese, etc.

I've often completely disregarded any minor leaguer above the age of 23 at the lower levels, instead dreaming big on the Candelarios of the world. But it seems I need to expand my horizons.


I was immediately going to name Stephen Bruno after reading the first paragraph.

If Caesar ever amounts to anything (which I don't anticipate), he'd be that type of guy.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby Stannis » Sun Dec 08, 2013 5:34 pm

Olt is who came to mind for me
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby CubsWin » Sun Dec 08, 2013 6:41 pm

Lo_Pan_Fan wrote:Olt is who came to mind for me

True, though not drafted and developed by the Cubs.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby mike2482 » Sun Dec 08, 2013 6:58 pm

I have an irrational love for Zeke DeVoss. He gets on base a ton, hopefully he can learn to hit.

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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby sweetpeteman » Sun Dec 08, 2013 7:05 pm

CubsWin wrote:
Lo_Pan_Fan wrote:Olt is who came to mind for me

True, though not drafted and developed by the Cubs.



He doesn't really fit though. Craig, Freese, and Carpenter were drafted in the 8th, 9th, and 13th rounds respectively and were never on the BA/MLB Top 100 lists. Olt was drafted in the 1st and made it as high as 22nd. He's more of a 1st Tier who has slid to 2nd Tier (the same could be said for Vitters).

Other guys who could fit would be:
John Andreoli
Zeke DeVoss
Bijan Rademacher
and even Rock Shoulders.


That also doesn't count foreign born players that may take longer to develop but could provide the same value.

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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby craig » Sun Dec 08, 2013 7:39 pm

Hanneman?

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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby CubsWin » Sun Dec 08, 2013 8:03 pm

craig wrote:Hanneman?

Yes. Taken a little higher, but yes.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby David » Sun Dec 08, 2013 8:07 pm

Our version of guys like that would be Theriot and Barney I guess.

Maybe Soto since didn't really show a whole lot in the minors until his 3rd crack at the PCL at age 24.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby CubsWin » Sun Dec 08, 2013 8:52 pm

sweetpeteman wrote:Other guys who could fit would be:
John Andreoli
Zeke DeVoss
Bijan Rademacher
and even Rock Shoulders.

All of those guys fit the profile. Andreoli and DeVoss lack the power. Rademacher could develop into that kind of player. He put up those kinds of numbers in Kane County. I'd love to see Shoulders develop into a Matt Adams type guy. Cubs' instructors have their work cut out for them.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby CubsWin » Sun Dec 08, 2013 9:07 pm

David wrote:Our version of guys like that would be Theriot and Barney I guess.

Maybe Soto since didn't really show a whole lot in the minors until his 3rd crack at the PCL at age 24.

I'm talking specifically about college guys taken in the mid-rounds that develop into very good regulars at the major league level reaching the bigs around 25-27 years of age. That's takes scouting, development and patience that I have yet to see from the Cubs in my lifetime. But it might be coming under Theo.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby David » Sun Dec 08, 2013 9:10 pm

CubsWin wrote:
David wrote:Our version of guys like that would be Theriot and Barney I guess.

Maybe Soto since didn't really show a whole lot in the minors until his 3rd crack at the PCL at age 24.

I'm talking specifically about college guys taken in the mid-rounds that develop into very good regulars at the major league level reaching the bigs around 25-27 years of age. That's takes scouting, development and patience that I have yet to see from the Cubs in my lifetime. But it might be coming under Theo.


Wouldn't Theriot and Barney pretty much be that?
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby Stannis » Sun Dec 08, 2013 9:16 pm

But just to verify, these are the kind of "prospects" that TT hates, right? Because he hates everyone that's old for their level. I still love TT though.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Dec 08, 2013 9:19 pm

This is basically WSR's time to shine.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby CubsWin » Sun Dec 08, 2013 10:19 pm

David wrote:
CubsWin wrote:
David wrote:Our version of guys like that would be Theriot and Barney I guess.

Maybe Soto since didn't really show a whole lot in the minors until his 3rd crack at the PCL at age 24.

I'm talking specifically about college guys taken in the mid-rounds that develop into very good regulars at the major league level reaching the bigs around 25-27 years of age. That's takes scouting, development and patience that I have yet to see from the Cubs in my lifetime. But it might be coming under Theo.


Wouldn't Theriot and Barney pretty much be that?

I wouldn't put Theriot or Barney in the very good regulars category. The Cardinals are getting .300ish/.380ish/.460ish out of the guys I mentioned. Barney and Theriot have never approached that kind of production.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby CubsWin » Sun Dec 08, 2013 10:21 pm

Nuts&Gum wrote:This is basically WSR's time to shine.

Unfortunately, even his guys don't fit the profile.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby Tim » Mon Dec 09, 2013 9:14 am

Hanneman was really my first thought.

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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby craig » Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:03 pm

CubsWin wrote:..I'm talking specifically about college guys taken in the mid-rounds that develop into very good regulars at the major league level reaching the bigs around 25-27 years of age. That's takes scouting, development and patience that I have yet to see from the Cubs in my lifetime. But it might be coming under Theo.


Theo's only had two drafts, and the admin's policy/philosophy clearly operates AGAINST this kind of pickup. If I define mid-rounds as 2-15, which is probably generous on both ends, they've only selected 4 college position players in those rounds over the two drafts. The strategy has been position round one, then prioritize pitching volume after that, which works against getting guys like the Cardinals have.

The four college position guys:
12 draft: Bruno (7) and Krist (9)
13 draft: Hanneman (3) and Hankins (11)

Bruno obviusly fits the Cardinals-success profile. Krist doesn't really fit; he was a $10K sub-slot picked there because he'd free up $140 for Almora/Underwood.

Hankins also fits as a not super toolsy, but smart, sound, fairly polished baseball player with a fairly mature approach as a hitter, etc.. A patient one-step-at-a-time prove-it guy, if he's going to make it. But 11th round, that's getting pretty late. Not sure the Cardinals have hit on many college players that late as $100K guys? I believe when drafted the Cubs listed him as a catcher; so if he ever does make it, it will surely be a patient-development schedule that takes till 25 or beyond.

Hanneman is college, and he's very much going to need considerable patience. But he certainly has the potential to be a second-day pick who may take till age 25-27, but who could end up being a productive big-leaguer. Very unlike the targeted graduation schedule that we're accustomed to.

He's still kind of different than the limited-tools-but-polished-and-fundamentally-sound-and-capable-all-around-hitter guy the Cardinals have produced. Hanneman's very unpolished and very inexperienced. And with a $1M bonus, he's not quite a 4th-8th round slot type, either.

I think the new regime will be an improvement for both patience and development. But for now the draft approach just isn't very oriented towards college-hitter 2nd-day picks.

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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Mon Dec 09, 2013 12:05 pm

Lo_Pan_Fan wrote:But just to verify, these are the kind of "prospects" that TT hates, right? Because he hates everyone that's old for their level. I still love TT though.


A 26 year old prospect killed my parents, you jerk.

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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby The Logan » Thu Dec 12, 2013 10:50 am

So would the guy we took in the Rule 5 fit this description? Charles Cutler. 27. Catcher. Mediocre power, decent OBP skills, what looks like a decent hitting ability. Has a nice career slash of .303/.389/.414/.804? Obviously he's catcher depth but seems like he'd make a nice MLB backup if he can replicate those numbers at the level (doesn't appear to be a full time starter).
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby Bunts Lick Butts » Thu Dec 12, 2013 12:40 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Lo_Pan_Fan wrote:But just to verify, these are the kind of "prospects" that TT hates, right? Because he hates everyone that's old for their level. I still love TT though.


A 26 year old prospect killed my parents, you jerk.


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Re: Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby Stannis » Thu Dec 12, 2013 5:23 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Lo_Pan_Fan wrote:But just to verify, these are the kind of "prospects" that TT hates, right? Because he hates everyone that's old for their level. I still love TT though.


A 26 year old prospect killed my parents, you jerk.

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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby A New Era » Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:18 am

Do all those college pitchers we drafted count? Guys who can become relievers and contribute. Or is that like a whole separate type of "prospect"? Guys like Skulina, Masek, etc. .

I see what you are saying about the Cardinals. "just ok" guys that contribute for a few years. In that case, is Barney one of those types of guys? I mean he's nothing special but his defense makes him somewhat valuable. At least a couple of those years where he was hitting "ok". I thought of Olt too. He could be that type of guy with great defense, and maybe a few years of "not terrible" offense and some power.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby CubsWin » Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:55 pm

A New Era wrote:Do all those college pitchers we drafted count? Guys who can become relievers and contribute. Or is that like a whole separate type of "prospect"? Guys like Skulina, Masek, etc. .

I see what you are saying about the Cardinals. "just ok" guys that contribute for a few years. In that case, is Barney one of those types of guys? I mean he's nothing special but his defense makes him somewhat valuable. At least a couple of those years where he was hitting "ok". I thought of Olt too. He could be that type of guy with great defense, and maybe a few years of "not terrible" offense and some power.

The difference the guys the Cardinals developed out of college (Freese, Craig, Carpenter, etc.) were not "just ok". They don't fit my previously limited vision of good prospects, but they became well above average major leaguers. Slash lines of .300/.380/.460 at the major league level are very good pieces to winning championships. And if they enter the bigs when they are 26 and never make the top 100 prospects lists but contribute that kind of production, they ought to be tracked, followed and valued as important prospects. Maybe not potential 8-10 year starters who can become all-stars (Baez, Bryant, Almora, etc.), but way more valuable that I had been considering them.

And the other point is previous regimes never really were able to produce them. Theo & Co. have only had two drafts and needed to devote those middle rounds almost exclusively to pitchers to fill the huge void left to them. But they have managed to bring in guys like Hannemann and Bruno which I think fit the bill. I eager to see who else they draft who may fit this profile in rounds 4-16 in the coming years.
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Re: 2nd Tier Prospects

Postby Warpticon » Fri Dec 13, 2013 9:02 pm

This is basically the Chris Sabo thread.


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