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 Post subject: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 9:50 pm 
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CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
jumbo wrote:
CubsWin wrote:
Here is the complete Sickels Cubs Top 20 list.
Quote:
Hernandez/Candelario/Amaya is a hell of an infield for Low-A in '13.


That's pretty encouraging if you ask me...


Does this give anyone else the urge to predict the roster of AA/A+/A-??
Any predictions on where everyone starts?


I think that deserves its own thread if anyone is willing to start one.


OK, so I couldn't help myself. There are probably a lot of problems with this, especially on the pitching side with bullpens as you get to the lower levels. Anyway, here it is:

Cubs
Castillo, Rizzo, Barney, Castro, 3B, Soriano, CF, DeJesus
Navarro,Valbuena, Campana, 2B/SS, LF/RF/1B/3B
Garza, Samardzija, Baker, Feldman, Wood
Fujikawa, Marmol, Camp, Russell, Bowden, Dolis, Raley/Rusin
AAA
Clevenger, Bour, Watkins, Lake, Vitters, Sappelt, Jackson, Burgess
Apodaca, Brenly, Ridling (released?), Amezega/Tolbert, Cerda, Wright
Vizcaino, Loux, Raley/Rusin, Beeler, Jokisch, Struck??,
Zych, LCastillo, Jackson, Caridad, McNutt, Antigua, Beliveau
AA
Gibbs, RJones, Torreyes, Alcantara, Villlanueva, Crawford, Szczur, Ha
Noble, Samson, Soto, Silva, Andreoli, Perez, Rohan
Hendricks, Whitenack, Cabrera, Kirk, Rhee??, Loosen??
Rhoderick, Batista, Hatley, Searle, Harman, Del Valle, Morris
A+
Lopez, Hoilman , Bruno, Baez, Geiger, Bonne, Easterling, Soler
TDavis, Cuneo, Harrington, Saunders, DeVoss, Radenmacher
PJohnson, Peralta, Jensen, Carreno, Rosario
Francescon, Burke, Cates, Reed, McDonald,
A
Contreras, Voglebach, Amaya, Hernandez, Candelario, Martin, Almora, Golden
Darvill, Zapata, Chen,
Panigua, McNeil, Wells, Arias, Scott,
Liria, Simpson, Dickson, Pugliese, Cruz, Pichardo,
Liria, DelValle
A-
Shoulders, Dunston, Batista, DY Kim,
Maples, Underwood, Blackburn, Concepcion


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Sun Dec 02, 2012 11:28 pm 
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Wow it'd be weird having every level be pretty interesting.

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 1:40 am 
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A long way to go ... but one thing I'm going to be very curious about is who opens in Daytona's rotation. A lot of arms could be in the mix - Juan Carlos Paniagua, Ben Wells, Jose Rosario, Michael Jensen, Starling Peralta, Pierce Johnson, Marcelo Carreno, PJ Francescon, and a couple more could be in the mix. I mean, I wouldn't necessarily rule out Jeffry Antigua, Zach Cates, Frank Del Valle, and a few others as possible starters.

Jumbo - I'd be a tad surprised if they bumped Cabrera down to AA to log innings. Not impossible, but it would be mildly surprising.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 8:24 am 
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I think Concepcion will have a chance at Daytona as well, if he's recovered. Being on the 40 man will give him some semblance of an expedited push, in my mind. Personally, it won't shock me anyway, if he starts there. Recovery being the key obviously. Not sure if Johnson begins in Daytona or not, but certainly think he'll make it there at some point. Won't surprise me if Maples starts out in Kane County, they've got to get him moving at some point. Blackburn, being rather advanced, seems likely to start out at Kane County to me as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Mon Dec 03, 2012 10:44 am 
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This is very tough at this point when we don't know who will be traded or what they'll be traded for, but a few predictions:

Cubs:I can't imagine Sappelt not being on the big league roster. At 25, there's only so much seasoning for him. As of now, we have a lefty heavy OF, and Sappelt should be a 4th/platoon.

Iowa: rotation: Vizcaino, Cabrera, Bowden. Rusin and Raley will round it out as depth. I think Struck is Rule 5'd.
McNutt will start in the pen. Rhoderick and Batista will be there as well
Lake and Vitters will highlight the offense. Perhaps Ha or even Szczur with the other in Tenn. I still think that Jackson is given the chance to earn CF on the big league club.
Bour, Rohan, Burgess, and some FA's will round it out.

Tenn: Loux, Gutierrez, Whitenack, Beeler start the rotation. Maybe Carreno, who could be in the pen
Zach as closer. Could earn a boost to Iowa early on
Szczur or Ha will play center. Evan Crawford will be in the OF mix.
Villanueva at 3B. Alcantara at SS. Perhaps Torreyes at 2B, but they might opt to have him start at A+.

Daytona: Paniaqua and Wells will highlight the rotation
Vogelbach or Shoulders at 1B, with the other at Kane County. Soler and Baez will be there. Almora could join them at some point.

Kane: Maples if healthy. Otherwise, he waits for Boise.
Vogelbach/Shoulders 1B. Almora. Amaya, Candelerio, Hernandez, will make thing interesting here. Perhaps Kevin Encarnacion, the 22 year old DSLer.

Boise/ASL: Hard to tell if Blackburn, Johnson, and Underwood start. Maybe Kane. Maybe Boise.
A few DSLers I see making their way stateside are Daury Torres, Carlos Rodriguez, Roberto Caro, Ronny Alcala, and Jenner Emeterio. Plenty of other notables unaccounted for to e scattered throughout.

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:19 am 
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Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112
Mark Johnson to manage new #Cubs affiliate Kane County Cougars in Chicago suburbs.

Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112
Brian Harper moves up from Daytona (A) mgr to hitting coach at AAA Iowa, joining mgr Marty Pevey and pitching coach Mike Mason. #Cubs

Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112
Also at Kane County Cougars, Ron Villone is pitching coach and Tom Beyers hitting coach. #Cubs

Longtime #Cubs org man Dave Keller to manage Daytona (A) with ex-big league RHP Storm Davis as pitching coach and Mariano Duncan hit coach

Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112
Bill Buckner stays in #Cubs org as Boise hitting coach; Gary Van Tol is manager and David Rosario is pitching coach

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 11:23 am 
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jersey cubs fan wrote:
Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112
Bill Buckner stays in #Cubs org as Boise hitting coach; Gary Van Tol is manager and David Rosario is pitching coach

It's nice to see Bill Buckner getting out of his house.


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 Post subject: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 12:49 pm 
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Looks like kopitzke was let go? Saw that coming.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Tue Dec 11, 2012 1:02 pm 
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CubsInNC wrote:
Looks like kopitzke was let go? Saw that coming.

http://centralillinoisproud.com/fulltext?nxd_id=271922

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Thu Dec 13, 2012 12:34 pm 
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CubInOK wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
Bruce Miles ‏@BruceMiles2112
Bill Buckner stays in #Cubs org as Boise hitting coach; Gary Van Tol is manager and David Rosario is pitching coach

It's nice to see Bill Buckner getting out of his house.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Sat Jan 26, 2013 9:18 pm 
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I tried to compile a list of all the cubs minor leaguers just to get some familiarity with names and thought I'd give this a go, with pitchers for now. I mostly categorized players based on prior experience/results at the different levels, and sprinkled in whatever general knowledge I had about them (which is far less than the regular posters on this board). Also, if I felt a player should be at a certain level, I didn't give much attention to roster limits, which leads to things like having 28 pitchers in my AAA list. I separated the pitchers into 3 groups for each level: starters are primarily pitchers that started a good chunk of their appearances, not necessarily what they project to be in the majors (though they should have at least a tiny shot to be starters in the majors, assuming they make it there); unknowns are prospects who have a mixed history (like Trey McNutt, who is is projected to be a reliever, but does have past success as a starter) or who I just don't know enough about/don't have much data on (like a lot of young 2012 HS draftees); relievers are the pitchers that have been, and project to be, relievers, to my knowledge. I'm not entirely sure which of these pitchers are/will be on the DL either.

Assuming the MLB roster has: Garza, Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Villanueva, Baker, Wood, Marmol, Russell, Fujikawa, Camp, Bowden, Rondon

AAA (27 pitchers):

Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Dallas Beeler
Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle Willis
Relievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley, Esmailin Caridad, Frank Batista

AA (21):

Starters: Barret Loux, Robert Whitenack, Eric Jokisch, Austin Kirk, Dae-Eun Rhee, Frank Del Valle, Matt Loosen, P.J. Francescon, Kyle Hendricks
Unknown: Ryan Searle, Eduardo Figueroa, Jeffry Antigua
Relievers: Lendy Castillo, David Cales, Zach Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Casey Harman, Tony Zych, A.J. Morris, Scott Weismann, Kevin Rhoderick

A+ (15):

Starters: Michael Jensen, Marcelo Carreno, Zach Cates, Hayden Simpson, Ben Wells
Unknown: Brett Wallach, Kyler Burke, Yao-Lin Wang
Relievers: Jeffrey Lorick, Hunter Cervenka, Matt Iannazzo, Joseph Zeller, Andrew McKirahan, Sheldon McDonald, Dayan Diaz

A (14):

Starters: Jose Rosario, Gerardo Concepcion, Juan Paniagua, Pierce Johnson, Tayler Scott, Jose Arias
Unknown: Austin Reed, Luis Liria, Brian Smith
Relievers: Nathan Dorris, Larry Suarez, Matthew Spencer, Michael Heesch, Eduardo Orozco

A-/RK Depth (31):

Starters: Ian Dickson, James Pugliese, Dillon Maples, Duane Underwood, Paul Blackburn, Felix Pena
Unknown: Su-Min Jung, Steve Perakslis, Hunter Ackerman, Trey Lang, Amaury Paulino, Jin-Young Kim, Loiger Padron
Relievers: Rafael Diplan, Jasvir Rakkar, Carlos Martinez-Pumarino, Tyler Bremer, Michael Hamann

Starters: Justin Amlung, Austin Urban, Joshua Conway, Ryan McNeil, Anthony Prieto
Unknown: Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Ryan Hartman, Daniel Adrian, Corbin Hoffner, Ethan Elias, Chad Martin, David Henrie, Anthony York

What do you guys think of the accuracy of the placements by level/category (starter, unknown, reliever)? Who do you think the primary starters at each level will be? Who do you think will be cut in the spring? I'd like it if you guys would critique the level placements realistically, rather than how I did it (ie don't have 25 pitchers at AAA). I don't know if the cubs are just going to make mass cuts or push people down that seem to have had plenty of success at that level.

EDIT: realized I missed 5 players: Esmailin Caridad, Anthony York, Frank Batista, Kevin Rhoderick, Loiger Padron


Last edited by teddy on Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:16 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 10:36 am 
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Not saying you're not correct. But if Suarez is in Low A again this year, we might as well release him. That would be 3 straight years primarily in Low A, with stints at A+ and AA.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Sun Jan 27, 2013 11:14 pm 
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teddy wrote:
Assuming the MLB roster has: Garza, Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Villanueva, Baker, Wood, Marmol, Russell, Fujikawa, Camp, Bowden, Rondon

AAA (25 pitchers):

Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Dallas Beeler
Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle Willis
Relievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley

I think there is a likelihood that Scott Baker will start the year on the DL and one of Takahashi, Rusin or Raley will be in the pen to start the year. I think Casey Coleman has been released but hasn't signed with anyone yet. Beeler will probably start in AA, and Loux will start in AAA. Chang Yong-Lim will start on the DL but when he's ready will do most of his relieving for Iowa. I wouldn't put Dontrelle in the unknown column, he's going to be coming out of the pen. And keep in mind that a lot of the invitees to camp like Carpenter, Wade, Lewis may choose not to go to AAA and will be released opening up roster spots for some of these other guys.

teddy wrote:
AA (20):

Starters: Barret Loux, Robert Whitenack, Eric Jokisch, Austin Kirk, Dae-Eun Rhee, Frank Del Valle, Matt Loosen, P.J. Francescon, Kyle Hendricks
Unknown: Ryan Searle, Eduardo Figueroa, Jeffry Antigua
Relievers: Lendy Castillo, David Cales, Zach Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Casey Harman, Tony Zych, A.J. Morris, Scott Weismann

Loux will likely start in AAA as will Jokisch. Castillo was just DFA'd. We'll see if he makes it through waivers. There's a good shot Schlitter starts the year in AAA.

teddy wrote:
A+ (15):

Starters: Michael Jensen, Marcelo Carreno, Zach Cates, Hayden Simpson, Ben Wells
Unknown: Brett Wallach, Kyler Burke, Yao-Lin Wang
Relievers: Jeffrey Lorick, Hunter Cervenka, Matt Iannazzo, Joseph Zeller, Andrew McKirahan, Sheldon McDonald, Dayan Diaz

I don't think Hayden Simpson is a starter anymore. He may come out of the pen at this level though. You can put Jose Rosario in his place in the rotation. Wallach is on the bubble big time. He needs a good spring to stick around. Wang could still compete for the rotation despite his good showing out of the pen late last season. It's dependent on how he performs this spring, as it is with a lot of these guys, but I think Cervenka's got a good shot at starting at AA, and given that Lorick and Burke are/will be 25 and logged decent innings at Daytona last year, it's probable that they begin in AA, too.

teddy wrote:
A (14):

Starters: Jose Rosario, Gerardo Concepcion, Juan Paniagua, Pierce Johnson, Tayler Scott, Jose Arias
Unknown: Austin Reed, Luis Liria, Brian Smith
Relievers: Nathan Dorris, Larry Suarez, Matthew Spencer, Michael Heesch, Eduardo Orozco

At this level, it starts to become tricky. So much depends on how they perform during spring training. I see Rosario starting in A+. Paniagua and Johnson each have a chance to start there, too, with strong springs. Also with a strong spring, I put Dillon Maples in the Cougars rotation. Suarez will likely start in the A+ bullpen. Pugliese has got pretty good stuff and could break with Kane County as well.

teddy wrote:
A-/RK Depth (29):

Starters: Ian Dickson, James Pugliese, Dillon Maples, Duane Underwood, Paul Blackburn, Felix Pena
Unknown: Su-Min Jung, Steve Perakslis, Hunter Ackerman, Trey Lang, Amaury Paulino, Jin-Young Kim
Relievers: Rafael Diplan, Jasvir Rakkar, Carlos Martinez-Pumarino, Tyler Bremer, Michael Hamann

Starters: Justin Amlung, Austin Urban, Joshua Conway, Ryan McNeil, Anthony Prieto
Unknown: Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Ryan Hartman, Daniel Adrian, Corbin Hoffner, Ethan Elias, Chad Martin, David Henrie

Keep your eye on Josh Conway from this group. If he returns from surgery well, he could move up quickly. I'm hoping one of Underwood, Blackburn, McNeil and Lang will start the year in A ball. My guess is Lang or Blackburn.

teddy wrote:
What do you guys think of the accuracy of the placements by level/category (starter, unknown, reliever)? Who do you think the primary starters at each level will be? Who do you think will be cut in the spring? I'd like it if you guys would critique the level placements realistically, rather than how I did it (ie don't have 25 pitchers at AAA). I don't know if the cubs are just going to make mass cuts or push people down that seem to have had plenty of success at that level.

Again, it's nearly impossible to predict who will be cut in spring training because that's why they have it. The levels players start out at is also predicated on how well they play in the spring especially guys at A+ and up. One thing is clear, though, there will be guys released and others who start the year in extended spring training due to injury or to work on a specific part of their game that would otherwise be at one of the higher levels. It's so difficult to predict who and where that the fun for me is to sit back, read the reports, scour the stats and see who emerges. I'm as excited for this year's crop of minor leaguers as I've ever been. This should be fun.

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 3:52 am 
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CubsWin wrote:
Again, it's nearly impossible to predict who will be cut in spring training because that's why they have it. The levels players start out at is also predicated on how well they play in the spring especially guys at A+ and up. One thing is clear, though, there will be guys released and others who start the year in extended spring training due to injury or to work on a specific part of their game that would otherwise be at one of the higher levels. It's so difficult to predict who and where that the fun for me is to sit back, read the reports, scour the stats and see who emerges. I'm as excited for this year's crop of minor leaguers as I've ever been. This should be fun.


When I started this post the position players felt much easier to place by level than the pitchers.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Mon Jan 28, 2013 7:45 am 
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CubsWin wrote:
...Again, it's nearly impossible to predict who will be cut in spring training because that's why they have it. The levels players start out at is also predicated on how well they play in the spring especially guys at A+ and up. ....


That said, and given the unpredictabilities of who is and isn't injured, minor league spring training is pretty short and is a questionable window in which to make evaluations. The minor league season starts within a week of the majors, but isn't it true that whereas big-league pitchers are starting in mid-February, and most players come early, that minor-leaguers don't show up until like March 10th or so? My details may be wrong, anybody know? I'm just thinking that we all know how limited the sample size is and how misleading big-league spring performances can be. But the minor-league camp may be barely half as long, so that the impressions there should be even less reliable.

I suspect it might be wise to have the assignments for actual prospects largely pre-planned, and only slightly adjusted based on injuries or spring performance. Back-of-roster roster-fillers, maybe some of them can go up higher or lower, or make a roster on basis of injury. But I don't think a hot small sample in camp should often be used to skip a guy ahead of where he'd been preplanned to go. If he looks hot in camp, but then stays that way in spring, bump him up in May or sooner.

But otherwise I think you get a little hot in Mesa where it's warm, you can lose that pretty quick with several days of moving, sometimes to colder weather, and the brief hot spell in camp can have no carryover.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:40 pm 
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teddy wrote:
I tried to compile a list of all the cubs minor leaguers just to get some familiarity with names and thought I'd give this a go, with pitchers for now. I mostly categorized players based on prior experience/results at the different levels, and sprinkled in whatever general knowledge I had about them (which is far less than the regular posters on this board). Also, if I felt a player should be at a certain level, I didn't give much attention to roster limits, which leads to things like having 28 pitchers in my AAA list. I separated the pitchers into 3 groups for each level: starters are primarily pitchers that started a good chunk of their appearances, not necessarily what they project to be in the majors (though they should have at least a tiny shot to be starters in the majors, assuming they make it there); unknowns are prospects who have a mixed history (like Trey McNutt, who is is projected to be a reliever, but does have past success as a starter) or who I just don't know enough about/don't have much data on (like a lot of young 2012 HS draftees); relievers are the pitchers that have been, and project to be, relievers, to my knowledge. I'm not entirely sure which of these pitchers are/will be on the DL either.

Assuming the MLB roster has: Garza, Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Villanueva, Baker, Wood, Marmol, Russell, Fujikawa, Camp, Bowden, Rondon

AAA (25 pitchers):

Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Dallas Beeler
Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle WillisRelievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley



-I really can't imagine Willis in AAA, not for long anyway. Unless he somehow manages to crack the big league roster, I'd imagine that he'll move on in a mutual parting of ways.

-Weathers is 27 and had yet to findh the strike zone. I'm thinking he'll be given until the end up spring training to do so. He was 27 in AA last and had 53/29 BB/K over 34 IP last year. He'd be eaten alive in the PCL.

-There are simply too many options with varying degrees of a chance to be a part of the future to waste any more time or roster space on Coleman and Berken.

-Beeler could easily start in AA. He's only 23, and Whitenack could be better off srarting out at A+, for a short time anyway.

-And I'm still betting on at least 1 of Garza or Marmol to be traded by opening day.

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:41 pm 
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Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Dallas Beeler
Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle Willis
Relievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley

Looking at my AAA list specifically, do you guys see any guys other than Beeler actually moving down? Or do you think it will be pretty much all cuts at that level?

Personally, I can't see anyone else getting demoted. Cabrera, Raley, Rusin, Vizcaino, Struck, McNutt, Dolis, and Hatley all seem like locks to not get cut due to age and upside. With 12 pitchers opening the season, that's 4 left for the roster.

There's 7 NRIs in my list: Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, and Cory Wade.
At most, I think 2 of these guys will make it (in lieu of Bowden and Rondon), but I think it's much more likely 0 make it. Obviously, some of these guys will be cut, but it's hard to say how many. I think they'll want to hang on to Takahashi, who also has the highest chance to make it, because he's a lefty. Other than that, they all have ups and downs in terms of age, K/BB peripherals, past MLB success, and I don't know much about their upside/former prospect status. In practice, how many of these NRI guys typically stay after the spring when there is a logjam like there is with the Cubs? I haven't really paid attention in the past to these kinds of things.

The other relievers appear to be Mateo, Weathers, Harris, Gutierrez, Jackson, and Willis.
Weathers seems like an easy cut. I don't know how Mateo's doing, but he was injured last year, so maybe he'll be DL'd to start? I don't know anything about Harris or Gutierrez, nor much about Willis' current status. Is Jackson a likely cut candidate, or does his former status give him a bigger cushion even if he's not impressive this spring?

In starting candidates, we have Coleman, Berken, Negrin, and Beeler.
Coleman is an easy cut, and I'd assume Berken too, though I don't know much about him. Negrin too, though maybe he's loaned to the Mexican leagues again? I only added Beeler over Loux/Jokisch because he is on the current Iowa roster FWIW. Anyway, Beeler's most likely dropping to AA, but that just brings Loux up, and neither is likely to be cut.

So let's say Coleman, Berken, Negrin, Mateo, and Weathers don't appear on any of the cubs 4 milb rosters to start the season, and add Takahashi and Loux to the guys that make it, Beeler down to AA.

Then 10 pitchers--Harris, Gutierrez, Jackson, Willis, Carpenter, Chapman, Lewis, Parker, Putnam, and Wade--are fighting for 2 spots. Obviously it'll depend on the spring, but right now, I'll take Jackson and Chapman based on age and upside/peripherals.

EDIT: have to add Esmailin Caridad/Frank Batista to the list of probables. I'd guess Caridad has a good chance to be cut, but Batista complicates things.

What do you guys think?


Last edited by teddy on Wed Jan 30, 2013 1:18 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 4:48 pm 
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Slide Castro Slide wrote:
-I really can't imagine Willis in AAA, not for long anyway. Unless he somehow manages to crack the big league roster, I'd imagine that he'll move on in a mutual parting of ways.

-Weathers is 27 and had yet to findh the strike zone. I'm thinking he'll be given until the end up spring training to do so. He was 27 in AA last and had 53/29 BB/K over 34 IP last year. He'd be eaten alive in the PCL.

-There are simply too many options with varying degrees of a chance to be a part of the future to waste any more time or roster space on Coleman and Berken.

-Beeler could easily start in AA. He's only 23, and Whitenack could be better off srarting out at A+, for a short time anyway.

-And I'm still betting on at least 1 of Garza or Marmol to be traded by opening day.


heh, you must be psychic. Just finished a long post about the AAA roster. And yeah I already moved Whitenack down and dropped Hayden Simpson to the unknown section. What are the chances Simpson starts the year in mesa?


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Mon Feb 04, 2013 9:11 am 
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craig wrote:
The minor league season starts within a week of the majors, but isn't it true that whereas big-league pitchers are starting in mid-February, and most players come early, that minor-leaguers don't show up until like March 10th or so? My details may be wrong, anybody know?


Craig, I was at Fitch all week last week and the place is loaded with minor leaguers who have arrived early. I think it's extremely common for a pretty good fraction of the organization's minor leaguers to report before February.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 1:24 am 
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Ok so I've made some adjustments, this time trying to fit players within roster limits (12-12-13-13). Keepers are the ones I feel have a strong chance of making it at that level. Cuts are the set of players who I think are anywhere from a lot to somewhat more likely to be cut out of the non-keepers.

Here's a list of pitchers I found that were in the upper 4 levels of the minors and on the DL sometime last year, and didn't return to pitch during the milb season: Mateo, Cales, McKirahan, Rosario, Cates. If you guys have anyone I missed or know that one of these players will be ready by the end of spring that's great, but for now I'll assume they will start on the DL.

Assuming the MLB roster has: Garza, Samardzija, Jackson, Feldman, Villanueva, Baker, Wood, Marmol, Russell, Fujikawa, Camp, Bowden, Rondon

AAA (27 pitchers):

Starters: Alberto Cabrera, Brooks Raley, Chris Rusin, Arodys Vizcaino, Casey Coleman, Jason Berken, Nick Struck, Yoanner Negrin, Barret Loux
Unknown: Trey McNutt, Jay Jackson, Dontrelle Willis
Relievers: Rafael Dolis, Marcos Mateo, Drew Carpenter, Jaye Chapman, Jensen Lewis, Blake Parker, Zach Putnam, Hisanori Takahashi, Cory Wade, Casey Weathers, Ty'Relle Harris, Carlos Gutierrez, Marcus Hatley, Esmailin Caridad, Frank Batista

DL (1): Mateo
Keepers (10): Cabrera, Raley, Rusin, Vizcaino, Struck, Loux, McNutt, Dolis, Hatley, Batista
Cuts (9): Coleman, Berken, Negrin, Carpenter, Putnam, Weathers, Harris, Caridad, Willis
Remaining (7): Jackson, Chapman, Lewis, Parker, Takahashi, Wade, Gutierrez

Final Projection:
Starters (6): Cabrera, Raley, Rusin, Vizcaino, Struck, Loux
Relievers (6): Dolis, Hatley, Batista, McNutt, Jackson, Gutierrez

Some pretty hard choices between the NRIs and some of the younger arms. I ended up going with youth in Jackson and Gutierrez since I can't see us DFAing our prospects and making room for any of the NRIs on the 40 man if they don't make it out of spring training. We have plenty of upper level lefties with at least middle relief potential, so I don;'t think Takashi is that necessary anymore. Still, it'd be nice to maybe have 1 or 2 veteran AAAA guys in case of a bunch of early trades or emergencies. I also feel like the NRI guys we have are overall slightly more intriguing than the typical group of NRIs. Nonetheless, it's doubtful any of the choices actually matter much, so in that sense the choices aren't that hard.

AA (16):

Starters: Dallas Beeler, Eric Jokisch, Austin Kirk, Dae-Eun Rhee, Frank Del Valle, Matt Loosen, Kyle Hendricks
Unknown: Jeffry Antigua, Ryan Searle
Relievers: , David Cales, Zach Rosscup, Brian Schlitter, Casey Harman, Tony Zych, A.J. Morris, Kevin Rhoderick

DL (1): Cales
Keepers (12): Beeler, Jokisch, Kirk, Rhee, Del Valle, Loosen, Hendricks, Antigua, Searle, Rosscup, Zych, Rhoderick
Cuts (3): Schlitter, Harman, Morris
Remaining (0):

Final Projection:
Starters (7): Beeler, Jokisch, Kirk, Rhee, Del Valle, Loosen, Hendricks
Relievers (5): Antigua, Rosscup, Zych, Rhoderick, Searle

There were probably about 8 guys I'd like to have up here based on last year's performance, but were moved down/cut for room. Schlitter and Morris both had nice years but are also fairly old. Harman is a bit redundant given the other upper level lefties with higher ceilings (I think). I probably have too many starters too, but maybe it can work? Overall at AA and AAA, I feel like there's a good amount of depth. Only a couple of real impact prospects, but I think every single one of these upper level guys have realistic potential to be at least decent middle relievers/5th starters. Not too exciting overall, but it's still nice to know we probably won't have any Seth Mclung/Rodrigo Lopez/etc. types making tons of appearances in our system.

A+ (18):

Starters: Michael Jensen, Marcelo Carreno, Ben Wells, P.J. Francescon, Robert Whitenack, Yeiper Castillo
Unknown: Brett Wallach, Kyler Burke, Yao-Lin Wang, Eduardo Figueroa
Relievers: Jeffrey Lorick, Hunter Cervenka, Joseph Zeller, Andrew McKirahan, Sheldon McDonald, Dayan Diaz, Scott Weismann, Lendy Castillo

DL (1): McKirahan
Keepers (10): Jensen, Carreno, Wells, Francescon, Whitenack, Burke, Wang, Searle, Figueroa, Cervenka, L Castillo
Cuts (2): Lorick, Wallach
Remaining (5): Y Castillo, Zeller, McDonald, Diaz, Weismann

Final Projection:
Starters (6): Jensen, Carreno, Wells, Francescon, Whitenack, Y Castillo
Relievers (7): Burke, Wang, L Castillo, Figueroa, Cervenka, Diaz, Weismann

Mostly came down to Weismann, Zeller, and McDonald for the last cuts, and I really have no info on them (anyone know if they have any upside at all?). Weismann's the youngest and reached AA (for like 2 games), but had worse numbers. Obviously a pretty inconsequential choice, though. Francescon, Searle, and Figueroa are guys I'd most rather have at AA. I'm guessing Burke gets some starts too based on last year, and Wang could be looked at again too. Edit: changed lendy and searle

A (16):

Starters: Jose Rosario, Gerardo Concepcion, Juan Paniagua, Pierce Johnson, Tayler Scott, Jose Arias, Zach Cates
Unknown: Austin Reed, Luis Liria, Brian Smith
Relievers: Nathan Dorris, Larry Suarez, Matthew Spencer, Michael Heesch, Eduardo Orozco, Matt Iannazzo

DL (2): Rosario, Cates
Keepers (6): Concepcion, Paniagua, Johnson, Scott, Arias, Reed
Cuts (1): Suarez
Remaining (7): Smith, Dorris, Spencer, Heesch, Orozco, Iannazzo, Liria

Final Projection:
Starters (6): Concepcion, Paniagua, Johnson, Scott, Arias, Reed
Relievers (7): Liria, Smith, Dorris, Spencer, Heesch, Orozco, Iannazzo

There's a bit of a roster crunch at higher levels, but here it's pretty fluid. There's plenty of possibilities here for cuts/promotion/demotions. Spencer is probably an easy cut in reality. I could even see Liria cut, depending on how many guys they plan to carry in EXT and how interesting the lower round 2012 players are. Maples or Blackburn could be easy replacements, or the two guys on the DL. Paniagua and Johnson could definitely move quickly, but I'll put them here to start.

A-/RK Depth (33):

Starters: Ian Dickson, James Pugliese, Dillon Maples, Duane Underwood, Paul Blackburn, Felix Pena
Unknown: Su-Min Jung, Steve Perakslis, Hunter Ackerman, Trey Lang, Amaury Paulino, Jin-Young Kim, Loiger Padron, Hayden Simpson
Relievers: Rafael Diplan, Jasvir Rakkar, Carlos Martinez-Pumarino, Tyler Bremer, Michael Hamann

Starters: Justin Amlung, Austin Urban, Joshua Conway, Ryan McNeil, Anthony Prieto
Unknown: Arturo Maltos-Garcia, Ryan Hartman, Daniel Adrian, Corbin Hoffner, Ethan Elias, Chad Martin, David Henrie, Anthony York

Hayden Simpson might be out of place, but I feel he could use some individual instruction or something.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Fri Feb 22, 2013 11:21 am 
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In case it needed to be said at this point, it looks like Soler will be starting at Daytona with Baez.

Quote:
The Northwest Herald ‏@InsideTheCubs
Spoke w/#Cubs Sr. VP/scouting & develop. Jason McLeod who said right now, Soler & Baez prob start at Class-A Daytona; Lake at Triple-A Iowa.

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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:32 pm 
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Arizona Phil with the initial pitcher and catcher assignments for Iowa and Tennessee: http://www.thecubreporter.com/comment/2 ... ent-210688

Quote:
IOWA (AAA)

PITCHERS (26)
Frank Batista
Dallas Beeler
Jason Berken
Esmailin Caridad
David Cales
Lendy Castillo
Carlos Gutierrez
Ty'Relle Harris
Marcus Hatley
Jay Jackson
Pierce Johnson
* Casey Harman
Kyle Hendricks
* Austin Kirk
* Eric Jokisch
Chang-Yong Lim (Limited Activity Only - TJS Rehab)
Matt Loosen
Marcos Mateo (Limited Activity Only - TJS Rehab)
Yoannis Negrin (ABSENT - WBC)
Dae-Eun Rhee
Kevin Rhoderick
* Zac Rosscup
Brian Schlitter
Ryan Searle (ABSENT - WBC)
Casey Weathers
Tony Zych

CATCHERS (4)
Taylor Davis
Jair Fernandez
# Micah Gibbs
Chad Noble

TENNESSEE (AA)

PITCHERS: (26)
* Jeffry Antigua
* Kyler Burke
Marcelo Carreno (Limited Activity Only)
Yeiper Castillo
Zach Cates
* Hunter Cervenka (Limited Activity Only)
* Gerardo Concepcion
* Frank del Valle
Dayan Diaz (Limited Activity Only)
Eduardo Figueroa
P. J. Francescon
* Matt Iannazzo
Michael Jensen
Luis Liria
* Jeff Lorick
* Andrew McKirahan (Limited Activity Only)
A. J. Morris
Austin Reed
Armando Rivero
* Matt Spencer
Larry Suarez
Brett Wallach (Limited Activity Only)
Yao-Lin Wang (ABSENT - WBC)
Scott Weismann
Ben Wells
Joe Zeller

CATCHERS (4):
* Sergio Burruel
Wilson Contreras
Luis Flores
Chadd Krist


Quote:
Probably one of the most interesting initial assignments is RHP Pierce Johnson (one of the players selected with a compensation draft pick in last year's First-Year Player Draft) with the Iowa squad, although he will almost certainly will move downward as cuta are made froim big league camp.


Obviously many of these guys will move down one level as the spring progresses.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:40 pm 
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Looks like AZPhil broke some news there, by the way. We evidently signed Armando Rivero, a 23 year old RHP out of Cuba. I don't remember a ton about the guy, but I think Badler had him 4th on a list of 5 Cubans that had defected last year. Likely a reliever, but throws up to 98. My guess is we likely spent a couple mill to get him.


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Wed Mar 06, 2013 11:51 pm 
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davell wrote:
Looks like AZPhil broke some news there, by the way. We evidently signed Armando Rivero, a 23 year old RHP out of Cuba. I don't remember a ton about the guy, but I think Badler had him 4th on a list of 5 Cubans that had defected last year. Likely a reliever, but throws up to 98. My guess is we likely spent a couple mill to get him.


That sounds like a really intriguing guy:

http://orioles-nation.com/2012/01/05/ta ... do-rivero/

How does that get missed?


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 Post subject: Re: Organization Roster Projections
PostPosted: Thu Mar 07, 2013 12:00 am 
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No clue. I had asked Badler about him months ago and he said teams had put him on the backburner. Maybe his workouts lacked? No idea, but I'm very surprised it hasn't been broken by anyone, unless it just happened while Badler's been doing the WBC thing.


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