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Vote for #10 Prospect
Poll ended at Sat Dec 15, 2012 7:37 pm
Arismendy Alcantara 3%  3%  [ 3 ]
Gisokar Amaya 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Paul Blackburn 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Alberto Cabrera 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Jeimer Candelario 11%  11%  [ 13 ]
Marco Hernandez 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Pierce Johnson 23%  23%  [ 28 ]
Junior Lake 12%  12%  [ 14 ]
Barrett Loux 3%  3%  [ 3 ]
Trey McNutt 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Hector Rondon 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Matt Szczur 9%  9%  [ 11 ]
Ronald Torreyes 3%  3%  [ 4 ]
Duane Underwood 13%  13%  [ 15 ]
Josh Vitters 21%  21%  [ 25 ]
Logan Watkins 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Ben Wells 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 120
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 Post subject: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:37 pm 
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Just like last time, with a close vote, we settled both the #8 & 9 positions.

So, please vote for the Cubs #10 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below.

If someone convinces you that someone else should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Monday.

For this vote, you should select the players you feel should be #10, #11 and #12. If we end up with multiple players having similar vote totals at the end of the voting period, there will be a run-off with just those players.

Results so far:

#1: Javier Baez
#2: Jorge Soler
#3: Albert Almora
#4: Arodys Vizcaino
#5: Dan Vogelbach
#6: Brett Jackson
#7: Juan Paniagua
#8: Christian Villanueva
#9: Dillon Maples


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:42 pm 
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Can only select one right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 7:59 pm 
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I'm really not a fan of the pick 3, but since we've been doing that, might as well go back to it.

I also think we need to set some boundary on what justifies a player being placed on automatically. That said, may be a bit too late. But Maples had below 20% of the vote. Paniagua had more votes in his cycle than Villanueva did. There was enough to suspect that Paniagua would go on automatically. All we needed was a few votes swinging to Pierce Johnson or Josh Vitters, which seemed plausible since many factor in "readiness" as an aspect, to force a potential run-off at 9.

Anyhow, next 3 for me would be

1A) Arismendy Alcantara - I guess I'll be the lone guy pushing him here. I get that Underwood has better upside, but he's raw and ridiculously far away, the secondaries need work, and it seems like a bet on the fastball right now to put him here (granted I'd have him ahead of Maples). I can see the argument of Vitters, but I'm not sure I buy his bat as being above average at the next level, and his defense wears him down. I know there are concerns about Alcantara's defense, but I'm not sure he grows that much mroe, and as of now, the tools are there to play short. The bat is still a concern of mine as well, but it showed well. Again ... I wouldn't bet on him, but it's a damn enticing package here, a shortstop at his age, entering AA, coming off a heck of a season, albeit shortened.

1B) Pierce Johnson - I almost wonder if I'm selling him short here. He arguably could go higher. I just don't know how quality the breaking stuff is. If you buy the breaking stuff, as a polished college arm, he really should be higher than this. IIRC, prior to his injury, there was talk of mid-late first for him, so the pedigree, as viewed by scouts, was solid. I may end up thinking that Johnson should be ahead of Alcantara).

Then it gets a bit tougher. A ton of names to toss around, and I'm leaning 3 in particular, Szczur, Marco Hernandez, and Duane Underwood. If I felt comfortable with Ben Wells health, he'd be in the mix. For now, I'm leaning Szczur, as the other two are far away, and as is right now, Szczur looks like a solid 4th OF that could, in the right situation, be a starter, and he has a bit more potential upside.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:06 pm 
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I only vote for one guy at a time personally. Johnson is my pick at 9, would have been 8th for me, after the group voted 6 in that exact order and Villanueva. Upside of a 2, should move relatively quickly and we've got more info on him than we do Paniagua. Wouldn't shock me if he sees Tennessee towards the latter part of the season. Health is my concern or I'd have had him at 6 on my personal list.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 8:54 pm 
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I didn't vote yet since it's only set up for one vote instead of three, but my three are:
Candelario
Johnson
Vitters

I've commented on Candelario and Johnson in previous votes. I've always held out hope for Vitters longer than most for a few reasons. He's always been young for his level, he's got a great hitting stroke and he takes a bit of time to make adjustments, though this is most likely related to his age relative to competition. He's the type of player who I think you can't dictate a particular hitting style to very quickly and expect immediate results. I think you just let the guy hit, kind of like Castro, and then let him build on success instead of trying to change him before he makes it. He'll eventually be able to play a passable third. When he was up last year he made a bunch of nice plays but sort of choked on the routing plays. I chalk it up to being young, though he seems to have limited range, which isn't likely to improve. Bottom line is the guy will eventually hit, and if he can pass at third that's very valuable.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 9:04 pm 
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WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Can only select one right now.


Sorry - wasn't aware we could pick 3 previously. I had only been picking 1 at a time.

Anyways, the poll has been fixed.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:05 pm 
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I hope, if we are asking people to pick 3, that everyone picks 3, otherwise it could unnecessarily skew some results.

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Since voting should also be a forum for discussion ...

I really like Jeimer Candelario. On pure offensive upside, he's arguably top 5 in the system. That said, there's so much of it that is projection. The power isn't there yet. Add in his struggles down the stretch, and the expected move to a corner role, and while it shouldn't be a knock on him for struggling in Boise at his age, I also don't know how high I can go with him. On pure upside, Underwood probably is at, or near the top, but like Candelario, both have a lot of question marks.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if both of these guys were top 100-150 players after this year, and that both guys made a case to be top 5 in the Cubs system next year. Just think they are a bit too raw for me here, but you could make a case for both of these guys as high as 6.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 10:39 pm 
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Johnson
Vitters
Underwood


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:03 pm 
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Underwood
Loux
Candelerio

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 14, 2012 11:40 pm 
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Johnson
Underwood
Alcantara - his position rates him ahead of others who might be closer to the bigs like Lake, Vitters and Szczur.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:39 am 
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10)Vitters
11)Johnson
12)Torreyes (I didn't realize I was so much higher on him then pretty much everyone else)


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:13 am 
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Johnson
Vitters
Lake

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:21 am 
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toonsterwu wrote:
I hope, if we are asking people to pick 3, that everyone picks 3, otherwise it could unnecessarily skew some results.

_____

Since voting should also be a forum for discussion ...

I really like Jeimer Candelario. On pure offensive upside, he's arguably top 5 in the system. That said, there's so much of it that is projection. The power isn't there yet. Add in his struggles down the stretch, and the expected move to a corner role, and while it shouldn't be a knock on him for struggling in Boise at his age, I also don't know how high I can go with him. On pure upside, Underwood probably is at, or near the top, but like Candelario, both have a lot of question marks.

It wouldn't surprise me in the least if both of these guys were top 100-150 players after this year, and that both guys made a case to be top 5 in the Cubs system next year. Just think they are a bit too raw for me here, but you could make a case for both of these guys as high as 6.


Candelario is absolutely an upside pick. I never tried to comp him, but I could see him being an Aramis type 3B - solid hitter with discipline and 30 HR power, defensive limitations that he can improve on over time. Yes, he is far away and all the risks are there, but the Cubs system is loaded with average type players, so he stands out a bit to me on his immense ceiling.

As an aside, I looked up Aramis on BR while typing this and never realized that he skipped AA. He had 47 games in AAA and then went to the Pirates at 20. Interesting how reckless that seems today, and how amazing it was for the Cubs to pick him up before he had six straight 900 OPS seasons.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:30 am 
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Tryptamine wrote:
10)Vitters
11)Johnson
12)Torreyes (I didn't realize I was so much higher on him then pretty much everyone else)


I was pretty high on Torreyes when we got him. I looked up some of his stats and compared them to Castro and he obviously has an incredible hit tool. Of course he'll need more than that, but he's still got a chance due to how good that tool is. I don't think he'll manage to repeat his heroics from the rookie league and A ball next season at AA, but if he bounces back this season he should post at least a line of 280/320/400 and at best a line of 300/360/440. Really just guessing here, maybe somebody else has a better take on it


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 6:45 am 
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Johnson
Underwood
Lake

Johnson will have the best season of the unproven starters, IMO.
Underwood has the high upside.
Lake will be in the majors at some point this year and I wouldn't be surprised if he hits some, probably even hit as much as we expect from Vitters.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 7:33 am 
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Lake - He should be up with the big club sometime in 2013. Hope he can harness those tools.
Vitters - he has had his first go around. If he adjusts like he has at each previous level, his next call-up should be more impressive.
Loux - I think this guy might be ready for the bigs soon. Back end starter?

Bill


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 10:06 am 
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Maples hasn't done much. I honestly don't understand why people see him above guys like Szczur, Vitters, Johnson.... I get the projection for him but his mechanics are poor and he has a history of injuries. I just don't understand what people see in this kid.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:35 pm 
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Vitters
Lake
Johnson

What was Wells' injury again? Just TJS?

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:45 pm 
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Cubswin11 wrote:
Vitters
Lake
Johnson

What was Wells' injury again? Just TJS?


From what I understand he had all the signs of needing TJS, but just rested it and never had the surgery. He came back to pitch last year toward the end of the season.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:47 pm 
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Cubswin11 wrote:
Vitters
Lake
Johnson

What was Wells' injury again? Just TJS?

Thats what he was supposed to have, but he tried waiting and seeing if his elbow healed on its own. He came back at the tail end of the year, so its basically "wait and see" time, to see if it was the right thing to do or not. If healthy, he likely would be in the 12-15 range for me, but I'll dock him 7-10 spots, in case this backfires and he loses a second season in a row to injury.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 12:47 pm 
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Cubswin11 wrote:
Vitters
Lake
Johnson

What was Wells' injury again? Just TJS?

Elbow injury. Opted out of TJS and returned at the end of the season.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:13 pm 
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I don't really get why it's been a pick 3 this entire time, but I want my voice heard so I kept doing it. In response to toonster, Maples had less than 20% of the total vote, but since you can vote for 3, it's likely more than half the people voted for him in some way. Anyway,

Vitters
Candelario
Szczur

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 3:04 pm 
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This one seems to have two clear top vote getters. How close determines a run-off?

When will Bruno be added to the list?

Bill


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 8:00 pm 
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10) Johnson
11) Vitters
12) Szczur


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #10 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 15, 2012 8:03 pm 
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10) J. Candelario
11) P. Johnson
12) G. Amaya

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