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Vote for #12 Prospect
Poll ended at Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:07 pm
Arismendy Alcantara 8%  8%  [ 10 ]
Gioskar Amaya 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Paul Blackburn 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Steve Bruno 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Alberto Cabrera 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Jeimer Candelario 19%  19%  [ 25 ]
Jae-Hoon Ha 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Marco Hernandez 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Junior Lake 21%  21%  [ 28 ]
Barrett Loux 5%  5%  [ 6 ]
Trey McNutt 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Hector Rondon 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Matt Szczur 14%  14%  [ 18 ]
Ronald Torreyes 9%  9%  [ 12 ]
Duane Underwood 17%  17%  [ 22 ]
Logan Watkins 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Ben Wells 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Tony Zych 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Total votes : 132
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 Post subject: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:07 pm 
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There is a run-off for #10 and #11 between Josh Vitters and Pierce Johnson.

So, please vote for the Cubs #12 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below.

If someone convinces you that someone else should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Tuesday.

For this vote, you should select the players you feel should be #12, #13 and #14. If we end up with multiple players having similar vote totals at the end of the voting period, there will be a run-off with just those players.

Results so far:

#1: Javier Baez
#2: Jorge Soler
#3: Albert Almora
#4: Arodys Vizcaino
#5: Dan Vogelbach
#6: Brett Jackson
#7: Juan Paniagua
#8: Christian Villanueva
#9: Dillon Maples
#10/#11: Pierce Johnson/Josh Vitters (run-off)

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:26 pm 
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Underwood
Candelerio
Loux

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:35 pm 
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Lake
Underwood
Candelario

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:36 pm 
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I've had an about face, in a way. I wouldn't have had either of Vitters or Maples in my top 10 and would have had the other 9 and one of Candelario or Torreyes to round out my top 10. That said, my vote goes to Alcantara. If Didi freaking Gregorius can basically net Trevor Bauer, a guy like Alcantara could easily surprise and become that type of value himself. He was having a breakout year offensively and supposedly has the tools defensively as well. I'll take that, because I guess SS just have that much trade value, the higher they move up.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:41 pm 
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Lake - I'm kind of surprised Lake didn't make the top ten. I think he should go as soon as possible outside of it. I like him better than Vitters by a good margin, as I think he has the floor of an excellent supersub, while Vitters' is out of baseball in 3 years. And he's really close, assuming we can find a spot for him this year.

Candelario - Mad love for Candelario. The power/approach combination is evident at low levels, and these are skills that don't really leave as you move up. There's been talk of him being moved to 1st, but I think he'll hit well enough to be a 1B, yet he'll stick at 3B. That makes him really exciting to me.

Amaya - I've always liked his bat, and my love for him went through the roof when it was reported that he was a good defender at 2nd. I predicted around this time last year that he'd be better thought-of than Marco Hernandez now. I'm pretty sure that's the case, though I haven't done extensive homework on the subject.

I really like that all of these guys who were top-ten are being pushed out of it to make way for the elite tier that Theo and Jed have cultivated (with credit for Baez going to Wilken/Hendry, of course). I think our 12-20 depth is really exciting, and these guys' upsides is a big reason why.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 9:55 pm 
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Underwood
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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 10:45 pm 
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Lake
Szczur
Alcantara

Arismendy doesn't get nearly enough love for the steps he took at Daytona this year. What's interesting to me is that his patience was spiking right before he got injured. In 42 July PA, he walked 7 times. In winter ball he hasn't gotten many looks at the plate, but has walked 4 times in 15 PA (and homered and doubled). SSS and all, but encouraging.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 10:47 pm 
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btw - I'll also be voting for Jeimer and Amaya before I cast another vote for a pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 10:49 pm 
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Underwood
Alcantara
Lake

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 16, 2012 10:50 pm 
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Tim wrote:
Lake
Szczur
Alcantara

Arismendy doesn't get nearly enough love for the steps he took at Daytona this year. What's interesting to me is that his patience was spiking right before he got injured. In 42 July PA, he walked 7 times. In winter ball he hasn't gotten many looks at the plate, but has walked 4 times in 15 PA (and homered and doubled). SSS and all, but encouraging.

I really like him. He will be #15 for me, but definitely could wind up being a top 10 guy for me next year. He made some nice adjustments/developments this past year.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:04 am 
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underwood
candelario
alcantra

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 12:10 am 
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Lake
Szczur
Cabrera

Lake's proximity to the majors is being quite underrated here. I could easily be convinced to dump Szczur another 10 spots or so. Cabrera's got the arm and started to put it together last year in AAA. I just hope that if the starting experiment fails as badly as I expect, they put him back in the pen quickly.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:16 am 
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We're getting to the "depth" of the system now, where a lot of guys really are lumped close together and it'll be a beauty is in the eye of the beholder type situation, IMO, so I'll be curious how these vote totals play out compared to some of the earlier votes (granted, a few guys in the top 11 came in lower for me). But

1. Arismendy Alcantara - I've been beating this horse for a few picks now. I've said it here and other places - I don't necessarily "buy" Alcantara in terms of, I'm going to the bank with this guy as a bet for becoming a good major leaguer. But ... 2013 will be his age 21 season. A 21 year old shortstop, entering AA, coming off a good season offensively in A+ is an intriguing asset. He doesn't strike out a ton, although I'll be curious how his approach holds up in AA. I'm really not sure Christian Villanueva's offensive tools are that much better than Alcantara's. Everyone looks at Alcantara's power, or lack thereof in Peoria, but well, a lot of people struggle in MWL, particularly kids. There are shortstop tools. I know a poster has questioned whether he will outgrow shortstop. I just don't know if I see it based on raw body-point analysis (bad weight is a separate factor and something that I could not guess on). If he doesn't outgrow short, the tools for the position are there right now, and it would be a question of whether or not he could be more consistent.

2. Matt Szczur - The fact that he's "raw" to baseball shouldn't mean anything much anymore. He's had multiple professional seasons, and at a certain age, well, age is age, and he'll turn 24 next year. Thus, I can understand the concerns on him. A 23-24 year old CF who struggled in his first go-around in AA and hasn't shown much power isn't going to make anyone jump for excitement. That said, I don't buy yet that his ability to make contact was exposed in AA. It's interesting to see that it seemed like he was trying to lift the ball a bit more in AA. There's raw power there, but what he needs to do is strike a balance. At his best, he's taking advantage of his quickness and speed combination, slapping the ball around and getting on base, while occasionally driving one to keep pitchers honest. Can he fix his swing to achieve this? I don't know, but the way I look at it is, if I don't buy that his contact ability was exposed, then the dramatically improved discipline/approach still him a potentially good 4th/5th OF with speed/defense who can start in certain situations or when he has a hot year. If he fixes his swing to the point that he's getting on base and driving the ball a bit more, then the potential to be a solid starter is there. For now, that gets the edge over raw talent in the next two slots.

I'm still tossing over the next two in some fashion, but

3a. Duane Underwood - Others have a legitimate argument of Underwood to be much higher. The case can be made that his pitching ceiling is the highest in the entire system, and even though we're talking a pitcher, that potential could be enough justification to put him much higher. I'd just like to see him polish things up and show some consistency before I jump too high for him.

3b. Marco Hernandez - Since only 3 votes can be made, I went Underwood for now. What's somewhat lost in Marco's season is that almost all the positive comments about his tools were shown this year. He's not considered a threat to outgrow short. He has excellent bat speed. Marco looks to have a solid arm for short, and he shows the ability to drive the ball and could potentially be that 10-15 HR's hitter some have noted. The range, speed, and movement at short is fine, and he has the ability to be a solid base-runner. There's a lot to like, but the discipline was the most troubling aspect. That said ... the K rate dropped and the BB rate increased as he spent more time in Peoria and Boise. So he was making adjustments, and once the approach improved at both spots, the offense came around. It's almost forgotten that when he was demoted, he was showing a lot of positive signs in Peoria. I'm curious to see what his GB rate is like in Peoria next year, as it was noticeably lower than it was in Boise this past year. He won't hit 21 until late in 2013, so he's age appropriate. There aren't that many shortstop talents in the entire minors with his level of all-around potential.

The next three would probably be Candelario, Amaya, and maybe Lake for me. Marco's position and Duane's ceiling is enough of an edge on those two for me, for now. I love Candelario's offensive ceiling, but there's a lot of projection there, and with the expectation that he might move to first eventually (granted, being on the same development level as Vogelbach will likely keep him at 3rd, or maybe move him to the OF), he needs to mash and I want to see that materialize. There's a lot to like about Amaya, but the offense is really going to have to carry him. It could, so he could deserve to much higher, and his ceiling as a potentially offensive minded 2nd baseman that can get on base and has some pop is arguably more fascinating than a lot of other options that are at 2nd, or could end up there. I actually wonder if his power is being a bit under-sold this offseason, by a tiny smidgen. Still ... Marco's on the same level, shows offensive potential that's close to Amaya's (Gioskar should hit for a better average if he develops), and is a shortstop. That gets the edge for now. Lake's a tough one to place for me. I think he could see the bigs next year. He's only 23 next year. If he ever put it together, he could be a monster offensive player. I'm just not sure how much I buy him putting it together, and I wonder how the approach holds as he faces smarter pitchers that don't try to simply blow it by you.

I really like Loux, and have always acknowledged my fascination with Wells, but health is too big a concern for me, for now, to push them ahead of the positional guys.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:19 am 
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Btw, I'd offer up that at some point, Rob Whitenack probably deserves a trial if only due to his 40 man status. I'm not so sure that I would necessarily put Loux ahead of him, as Whitenack's ceiling might be a tick better, and he's basically a more polished version of Wells (think Wells ceiling is a better). Furthermore, next year iss his 2nd year off TJ.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 8:14 am 
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12) Candelario
13) G. Amaya
14) Torreyes

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:02 am 
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Lake - Lake could be a surprise on the 25 man roster in 2013 if he shows well in spring training. If not, a good AAA showing could earn him a chance for a mid-to-late season call-up. Can't wait to see him try to put those tools to the test.
Loux - I think Loux may contribute at the MLB level this season if all goes well.
Candelario - At this point there is a lot of very young talent mixed with lots of lower ceiling AAA and AA players that may only have average MLB potential. If Candelario can stick at 3B he may actually belong here.

Bill


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:43 am 
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Lake with another HR and walk in winter ball yesterday, btw. :D


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:46 am 
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How likely is it that Lake is our RH utility and/or 3B/OF platoon option to start the year? You think they will want him to start in AAA to get some more seasoning/experience playing different positions?

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 9:48 am 
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Cubswin11 wrote:
How likely is it that Lake is our RH utility and/or 3B/OF platoon option to start the year? You think they will want him to start in AAA to get some more seasoning/experience playing different positions?

I'm pretty sure they'd want him to get extended reps at 3B before plugging him in there in the bigs.

Even beyond that, though, I think they really do value getting guys time at AAA before promoting them.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:20 am 
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Something tells me the Cubs FO is probably much higher on Szczur than we are. Good hit tool, showing a nice approach, plus defense and base running, maybe a touch of power hiding in there somewhere, and plus-plus makeup.

Yeah, he's old. But as long as he keeps progressing he seems to fit the mold of "The Cubs Way" perfectly.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:23 am 
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Rob wrote:
Good hit tool...maybe a touch of power hiding in there somewhere


No to both of these things.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:33 am 
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KyleJRM wrote:
Rob wrote:
Good hit tool...maybe a touch of power hiding in there somewhere


No to both of these things.


Scouting reports say that, not the stats. I tend to pay attention to that at the minor league level.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:43 am 
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Rob wrote:
KyleJRM wrote:
Rob wrote:
Good hit tool...maybe a touch of power hiding in there somewhere


No to both of these things.


Scouting reports say that, not the stats. I tend to pay attention to that at the minor league level.


My scouting report says that his swing makes babies and menstruating women burst into convulsing, sobbing tears.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:47 am 
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KyleJRM wrote:
Rob wrote:
KyleJRM wrote:
Rob wrote:
Good hit tool...maybe a touch of power hiding in there somewhere


No to both of these things.


Scouting reports say that, not the stats. I tend to pay attention to that at the minor league level.


My scouting report says that his swing makes babies and menstruating women burst into convulsing, sobbing tears.


Happy tears or sad ones?


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #12 Prospect
PostPosted: Mon Dec 17, 2012 11:50 am 
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