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Vote for #14 Prospect
Poll ended at Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:25 pm
Arismendy Alcantara 17%  17%  [ 21 ]
Gioskar Amaya 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Paul Blackburn 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Steve Bruno 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Alberto Cabrera 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Jae-Hoon Ha 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Marco Hernandez 5%  5%  [ 6 ]
Barrett Loux 7%  7%  [ 8 ]
Trey Martin 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Trey McNutt 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Hector Rondon 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Tayler Scott 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Matt Szczur 20%  20%  [ 24 ]
Ronald Torreyes 17%  17%  [ 21 ]
Duane Underwood 21%  21%  [ 26 ]
Logan Watkins 2%  2%  [ 3 ]
Ben Wells 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Rob Whitenack 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Tony Zych 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 121
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 Post subject: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:25 pm 
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Please vote for the Cubs #14 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below.

If someone convinces you that someone else should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Monday.

For this vote, you should select the players you feel should be #14, #15 and #16. If we end up with multiple players having similar vote totals at the end of the voting period, there will be a run-off with just those players.

Results so far:

#1: Javier Baez
#2: Jorge Soler
#3: Albert Almora
#4: Arodys Vizcaino
#5: Dan Vogelbach
#6: Brett Jackson
#7: Juan Paniagua
#8: Christian Villanueva
#9: Dillon Maples
#10: Josh Vitters
#11: Pierce Johnson
#12: Junior Lake
#13: Jeimer Candelario

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:49 pm 
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It's only set up for 1 vote right now. When it does get fixed, I'll be voting

Torreyes
Underwood
Szczur


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 10:52 pm 
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My bad - fixed.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:03 pm 
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Alcantara, Torreyes, and Szczur.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Fri Dec 21, 2012 11:05 pm 
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Same top 3 as before, so I won't bother with my retyping my reasonings. My top 4 remains the same (Alcantara, Underwood, Szczur, Hernandez). I'm not too certain who my 5th is (Candelario was after those 4 for me). For now, since I've been putting 5, I'll go with Amaya, but Watkins/Torreyes/Cabrera/Wells/Whitenack and a few others are all in the mix for me.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 7:11 am 
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Not in order necessarily, but
Szczur
Loux
Alcantara


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 7:48 am 
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Loux
Underwood
Alcantra
Two pitchers and then the rest of the infield talent block begins. Amaya, Hernandez, Torreyes, Bruno.

Bill


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 8:09 am 
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Underwood
Loux
Whitenack: difficulty with 3rd choice. Whitenack showed some great stuff in 2011. Wells looked promising as well before not undergoing TJS. Amaya, Szczcur, Torreyes, and the forgotten Golden also get consideration.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 8:40 am 
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Slide Castro Slide wrote:
Underwood
Loux
Whitenack: difficulty with 3rd choice. Whitenack showed some great stuff in 2011. Wells looked promising as well before not undergoing TJS. Amaya, Szczcur, Torreyes, and the forgotten Golden also get consideration.

Why?

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:02 am 
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Eh, he just likes Golden. There's tools, but Shawon Dunston Jr. also has tools.

To be honest, I'm mildly surprised (well, with a lot of things) but with the Loux votes here. I like Loux, am happy we got a guy with a better chance to be a starter than Brigham (IMO). But ... baseballamerica had this to say in their trade central

"Loux reached Double-A in 2012 and made all his starts without incident, showing a simple, repeatable delivery and an idea of how to pitch. He works downhill, sits 90-92 mph and commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, though neither his velocity nor his secondary pitches separate him from the pack. His average slider and curveball blend together, but most scouts like his changeup best and think he knows how and when to use it. He profiles as an innings-eating No. 5 type on a good team."

You know who that sounds like? Nick Struck. There's some slight differences here and there - Loux is taller and gets a few more groundballs, Struck has probably a tick better velocity, and well, he's 6 months younger. He's also had some success in AAA. The profile of their stuff is fairly similar, and no one has beat down the door to get Struck even on the list to discuss (to be honest, been thinking he should probably become a voting consideration soon because he is a close to ready arm in the upper levels with a solid performance track record).


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:43 am 
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CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
Slide Castro Slide wrote:
Underwood
Loux
Whitenack: difficulty with 3rd choice. Whitenack showed some great stuff in 2011. Wells looked promising as well before not undergoing TJS. Amaya, Szczcur, Torreyes, and the forgotten Golden also get consideration.

Why?


As I said before, I'm still going off of 3 year old scouting reports, but they made him sound pretty impressive. He's only 21, and his 2012 was lost to injury, so despite the rough start, which I believe was 8 games, there's no reason to write him off.

While he's far from a sure thing to make it anywhere, but I'd take a guy who's a long shot at being a difference maker over guys like Bruno, Martin, and Watkins who are safer bets with far lower ceilings.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:53 am 
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Martin's ceiling is higher than Golden's.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:58 am 
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toonsterwu wrote:
Eh, he just likes Golden. There's tools, but Shawon Dunston Jr. also has tools.

To be honest, I'm mildly surprised (well, with a lot of things) but with the Loux votes here. I like Loux, am happy we got a guy with a better chance to be a starter than Brigham (IMO). But ... baseballamerica had this to say in their trade central

"Loux reached Double-A in 2012 and made all his starts without incident, showing a simple, repeatable delivery and an idea of how to pitch. He works downhill, sits 90-92 mph and commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, though neither his velocity nor his secondary pitches separate him from the pack. His average slider and curveball blend together, but most scouts like his changeup best and think he knows how and when to use it. He profiles as an innings-eating No. 5 type on a good team."

You know who that sounds like? Nick Struck. There's some slight differences here and there - Loux is taller and gets a few more groundballs, Struck has probably a tick better velocity, and well, he's 6 months younger. He's also had some success in AAA. The profile of their stuff is fairly similar, and no one has beat down the door to get Struck even on the list to discuss (to be honest, been thinking he should probably become a voting consideration soon because he is a close to ready arm in the upper levels with a solid performance track record).


I voted for Loux, but also agree that Struck is similar. I guess I don't value far away potential in pitching as much as I value Loux neared term promise. While I'm not a scout I did read Sickels on Minor League Ball (I think) put Loux at 20. Plus I am an Aggie alum so that may have colored my pick here I suppose.

Bill


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 11:07 am 
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Right or wrong, the fact Struck was left off the 40 man, then was passed over by every team in the Rule 5, affects my thinking on him. Loux? He's somewhere in the 20-25 range for me. But that speaks to the depth of our system. I look at it like this: Sickels averages about 20 guys per team that he gives C+ or higher grades. Making a top 600, in a roundabout way. We had 29 and if Peralta gets returned, it'd give us 30.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:36 pm 
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Can someone tell me the biggest difference between Blackburn and Underwood? Why is Underwood considered a better prospect even though he was drafted later?

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:43 pm 
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pitchcs wrote:
Can someone tell me the biggest difference between Blackburn and Underwood? Why is Underwood considered a better prospect even though he was drafted later?

Much higher upside for Underwood. Blackburn is more polished, upside of a mid rotation type. Higher chance of success. Underwood has TOR upside, but is much more volatile of a prospect. Control issues, velo inconsistency, due to lack of consistent delivery. Both are good makeup guys and are very coachable.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:48 pm 
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toonsterwu wrote:
Eh, he just likes Golden. There's tools, but Shawon Dunston Jr. also has tools.

To be honest, I'm mildly surprised (well, with a lot of things) but with the Loux votes here. I like Loux, am happy we got a guy with a better chance to be a starter than Brigham (IMO). But ... baseballamerica had this to say in their trade central

"Loux reached Double-A in 2012 and made all his starts without incident, showing a simple, repeatable delivery and an idea of how to pitch. He works downhill, sits 90-92 mph and commands his fastball to both sides of the plate, though neither his velocity nor his secondary pitches separate him from the pack. His average slider and curveball blend together, but most scouts like his changeup best and think he knows how and when to use it. He profiles as an innings-eating No. 5 type on a good team."

You know who that sounds like? Nick Struck. There's some slight differences here and there - Loux is taller and gets a few more groundballs, Struck has probably a tick better velocity, and well, he's 6 months younger. He's also had some success in AAA. The profile of their stuff is fairly similar, and no one has beat down the door to get Struck even on the list to discuss (to be honest, been thinking he should probably become a voting consideration soon because he is a close to ready arm in the upper levels with a solid performance track record).


I think SNTS and his pedigree as a top 10 pick are helping Loux.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:49 pm 
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Still the same three for me:

Underwood
Alcantara
Cabrera

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:52 pm 
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FYI, I have this poll closing on Monday. I figured three days is warranted rather than two because of the holiday.

SCS, I'll add Golden in the next round. Martin and he have similarly high ceilings (though they're different types of players) but Martin has had actual minor league success unlike Golden.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 1:57 pm 
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No order here, but I definitely have Szczur, Alcantara, Amaya, Hernandez, Torreyes, Cabrera, Blackburn, and Underwood ahead of Loux. A few others, like Wells, Martin, and Watkins are possible too.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:24 pm 
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Underwood
Alcantara
Torreyes

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:38 pm 
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I feel like the "vote 3" system may be resulting in people feeling compelled to put a pitcher in their group of three. I think that's moving the quality arms a few spots higher than they actually deserve.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 22, 2012 3:53 pm 
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CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
I think SNTS and his pedigree as a top 10 pick are helping Loux.


Not gonna lie. That is a part of it for me. That, and adding someone with what were at draft time, a good/great fastball and change with our pitching development, he could add that third pitch and be a good starter. He'll suffer a fall faster than McNutt, if he doesn't come out of the gate strong though. If I recall there were rumors of torn labrum, and an elbow that forecast a TJ surgery in his near future. Has either of those been dealt with? If not, why not TJ now?


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:03 am 
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I really should add that I think Loux should be ahead of Struck. His changeup is probably better than any secondary that Struck has.

That said, I do wonder about Struck in the pen. The fact that he's a close to ready arm with good velocity on the fastball and 3 pitches will keep him a starter, but ... I really wonder about him in the pen. I wonder if he could kick it up to the mid-90's consistently and sharpen up the breaking ball.

I don't mind adding Golden.

One other note on Loux - he doesn't really compare all that well to Whitenack or Wells, who have better velocity and arguably, movement, on their fastballs. All three have some levels of arm concern. I still wonder if Wells is being under-valued by ... everyone ... this winter. It's understandable, with arm concerns and that odd, he'll have surgery ... no he won't ... situation. Assuming he's healthy, he's a big young horse who was showing quite well in Low A earlier in the year.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #14 Prospect
PostPosted: Sun Dec 23, 2012 12:23 am 
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I know I'm docking him 10 spots or so because of the injury. If not for that concern, I'd have him higher than any pitcher in our system not named Vizcaino, Paniagua, or Johnson.


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