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Vote for #16 Prospect
Poll ended at Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:20 pm
Arismendy Alcantara 29%  29%  [ 29 ]
Gioskar Amaya 12%  12%  [ 12 ]
Jose Arias 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Paul Blackburn 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Steve Bruno 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Alberto Cabrera 4%  4%  [ 4 ]
Reggie Golden 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Jae-Hoon Ha 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Marco Hernandez 15%  15%  [ 15 ]
Barrett Loux 6%  6%  [ 6 ]
Trey Martin 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Trey McNutt 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Hector Rondon 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Tayler Scott 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Nick Struck 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Ronald Torreyes 23%  23%  [ 23 ]
Logan Watkins 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Ben Wells 4%  4%  [ 4 ]
Rob Whitenack 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Tony Zych 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 101
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 Post subject: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 6:20 pm 
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There is a run-off for #14 and #15 between Duane Underwood and Matt Szczur.

So, please vote for the Cubs #16 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below.

If someone convinces you that someone else should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Saturday.

For this vote, you should select the players you feel should be #16, #17 and #18. If we end up with multiple players having similar vote totals at the end of the voting period, there will be a run-off with just those players.

Results so far:

#1: Javier Baez
#2: Jorge Soler
#3: Albert Almora
#4: Arodys Vizcaino
#5: Dan Vogelbach
#6: Brett Jackson
#7: Juan Paniagua
#8: Christian Villanueva
#9: Dillon Maples
#10: Josh Vitters
#11: Pierce Johnson
#12: Junior Lake
#13: Jeimer Candelario
#14/#15: Duane Underwood/Matt Szczur


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:26 pm 
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Alcantara. I think he belongs in the top 10.

Sorry, can't read. I'd go Alcantara/Torreyes/Wells


Last edited by Gilby on Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:34 pm 
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Up the middle time. Alcantara, Torreyes, and Amaya, with Hernandez close behind.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 7:48 pm 
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With Underwood finally getting picked:

Alcantara
Cabrera
Hernandez


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:07 pm 
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16) Amaya
17) Torreyes
18) Watkins

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:43 pm 
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davell wrote:
Up the middle time. Alcantara, Torreyes, and Amaya, with Hernandez close behind.

This was my vote.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:51 pm 
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torreyes/amaya/zych

I like Zych. In his first real pro year, at only age 21, he advanced to AA and pitched very well. 64K/19BB/1HR/61 innings are really good raw numbers. His ERA and hits-allowed were higher than I'd expect based on thepure K/BB/HR stuff. Throws fast, routinely 95+ on fast gun, and touches 100. Has a really effective slider, when it's on. His reputation is for having so-so control, so I assume his command in the zone and his command of offspeed stuff isn't great. But 19BB/61 innings isn't exactly a major problem. If his slider can get more consistent, and perhaps if his splitter develops, he's got a chance to be a very significant late-inning reliever.

Amaya and Torreyes seem like analogous 2B options. Amaya's defense gets good reports now, and Torreyes 2B defense gets positive reports. Both seem like good batsmen. Torreyes had a hand injury early that significantly influenced his season. But he's an exceptional contact guy, and has a little bit of power. His BB-rate improved and will improve somewhat more. Had a terrible BABIP, but I'm think that's a function of swinging with a bad wrist. If he's able to support a more typical BABIP, with his excellent K/HR ratio (29K/6 HR is very nice), he could be a high average hitter. Projects as a nice #2 or #7/8 type hitter.

Amaya scouts as a very nice contact hitter, and showed major improvement in walks and power. But his K's were problematic, seemingly too high for supposedly such a pure batsman. We'll see with him.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 8:58 pm 
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Hand injury for Torreyes? Did that get any pub? If so, I missed it somehow and makes me even more confident with him in AA.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 9:51 pm 
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davell wrote:
Hand injury for Torreyes? Did that get any pub? If so, I missed it somehow and makes me even more confident with him in AA.


I was told he hurt it within the first week or two, and it didn't get right until June, after they finally rested him for a while.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 10:18 pm 
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I remember him missing sometime midseason but was unaware it was an injury that had nagged him all season to that point. That's good news.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 10:31 pm 
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Well, Alcantara is in my top 10, so he's option 1.

It's a bit tougher for the next two. I still think I'm leaning Marco Hernandez/Gioskar Amaya (in that order). Alberto Cabrera is close in that mix. and Logan Watkins is probably 5th for me.

Reasons (skipping Alcantara since I've done that one enough):

Hernandez - There aren't many shortstop with his complete set of tools. He's average to good in most areas, with excellent bat speed. That potential at shortstop is enough for me to overlook, this low in the list, his wart - his approach/discipline. To be fair to Marco, his approach and discipline did improve at both Peoria and Boise as he got more time.

Amaya - I sort of wonder if his power ceiling is ... under-sold? Here's a guy who makes excellent contact, shows a solid approach, has some pop, and is capable at 2nd. The fact that it's 2nd pushes him down my list, but that's a very nice skillset to look forward to if he develops at 2nd base.

Cabrera - I've always liked him the last few years, and I believe he has excellent closer potential. There's areas to work on. I'm not sure I buy him as a starter, but his readiness in the pen gives a slight bump over starting arms with health question marks (Wells/Whitenack/Loux).

Watkins - The 5th spot is tough. Watkins all-around game, plus being in AAA and close to ready, gets a nod. To be honest, if we judged him solely on his summer months the last 2 years, he should be much, much higher on the list. The inconsistency makes me wonder if he's a starter, which in turn, pushes him down a bit for me, but I'll acknowledge that one could make a case for him much higher, as a potential, close to ready starting caliber 2nd baseman who has some speed and can get on base.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 10:48 pm 
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I went Loux, Alcantara, Hernandez. Amaya, Torreyes, Watkins are also worthy.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Wed Dec 26, 2012 11:23 pm 
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Time for one of these:

Code:
Mystery SS A:  5.3 BB%, 17.0 K%, 24 SB, 86 SB%, .145 ISO
Mystery SS B:  4.2 BB%, 16.7 K%, 10 SB, 71 SB%, .115 ISO


Spoiler: show
Mystery SS A: Arismendy Alcantara - .347 BABIP
Mystery SS B: Marco Hernandez - .287 BABIP


Code:
Mystery 2B A: 12.9 BB%, 16.5 K%, 28 SB, 80 SB%, .141 ISO
Mystery 2B B: 10.9 BB%, 20.5 K%, 15 SB, 75 SB%, .199 ISO
Mystery 2B C:  6.8 BB%,  6.1 K%, 13 SB, 76 SB%, .121 ISO


Spoiler: show
Mystery 2B A: Logan Watkins - .332 BABIP
Mystery 2B B: Gioskar Amaya - .360 BABIP
Mystery 2B C: Ronald Torreyes - .268 BABIP


The SS's are pretty tough to differentiate. Given the ages and levels, it's reasonable to go either way depending on the scouting reports you trust more.

The 2B you have a much better chance of guessing. I just sometimes like to put all the ratios up there without the slash lines so people don't focus on what may be an artificially boosted BABIP.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 8:25 am 
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Torryes: I still like him, especially with a lot of experts still being high on him despite a rough 2012, even though he did pick it up in the 2nd half.
Golden: I'm aone in this, and again, I' still going off 3 year old drft reports but I like the ceiling.
Loux: A lot of guys bunched together here, but I guess Loux based off of his top 10 pick status.
All and all, it's very nice still having this many intriguing prospects this far down.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 11:39 am 
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Loux was a signability pick. He was considered a top 30-40 talent that year.


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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 1:58 pm 
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CaliforniaRaisin wrote:
With Underwood finally getting picked:

Alcantara
Cabrera
Hernandez

These easily were my 3. Flip the 1st and last though for my picks.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 3:07 pm 
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Alcantara
Torreyes
Hernandez

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:36 pm 
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Amaya, Alcantara, Scott

I may regret this choice, but I liked what I saw of Scott last year. Besides I find myself almost always leaning towards the younger prospect. I hope Scott justifies my confidence in him this year.

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 9:28 am 
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Do Jensen and McNeil rate anywhere on this list?

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 Post subject: Re: Vote for #16 Prospect
PostPosted: Sat Dec 29, 2012 12:16 pm 
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I'd say both get serious consideration outdide the top 25. Both are in my top 35 or so. We ready for 17, at this point?


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