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Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
Poll ended at Thu Jan 03, 2013 11:12 pm
Gioskar Amaya 48%  48%  [ 19 ]
Marco Hernandez 53%  53%  [ 21 ]
Total votes : 40
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 Post subject: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:12 pm 
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This is a tie-breaking run-off vote between Gioskar Amaya and Marco Hernandez for the Cubs #18 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below. The loser of the run-off vote will be the #19 prospect.

If someone convinces you that the other player should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Friday.

Results so far:

#1: Javier Baez
#2: Jorge Soler
#3: Albert Almora
#4: Arodys Vizcaino
#5: Dan Vogelbach
#6: Brett Jackson
#7: Juan Paniagua
#8: Christian Villanueva
#9: Dillon Maples
#10: Josh Vitters
#11: Pierce Johnson
#12: Junior Lake
#13: Jeimer Candelario
#14: Duane Underwood
#15: Matt Szczur
#16: Arismendy Alcantara
#17: Ronald Torreyes

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:20 pm 
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I have to lean towards Amaya, I mean he did put up a 3.000 OPS in Iowa. Seriously though, I like the walk rate and the pop. His Ks are a little too high. Overall though, even at 2B I still prefer Amaya's talent. The only thing I like more about Marco is his glove.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:38 pm 
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Close to a coin toss for me, but sticking with Amaya.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:41 pm 
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When in doubt, pick the SS.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:44 pm 
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Rob wrote:
When in doubt, pick the SS.


Exactly.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 02, 2013 11:52 pm 
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Marco Hernandez. He's the guy that has a chance to be considered a top shelf prospect (that is, a potential top 50 type prospect down the line if there's positive development). Before people jump on me and point out that I've been bigger on Marco than most, ask yourself this - how big is the difference between Jurickson Profar's ceiling and Marco Hernandez's ceiling (again, only talking about ceiling, not anything to do with how developed they are). The difference in ceiling between Lindor and Hernandez is minimal as well, and while Hak-ju Lee's defense is superior to Marco's, his offensive ceiling isn't (again ... ceiling is the only thing I'm discussing here). Shortstops with some power potential, solid defensive ability, and bat speed to potentially hit for average aren't exactly everywhere. Yes, the approach is a concern, but he showed development in that regards at both stops. Considering age and level, that's enough to hope on the tools.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:42 am 
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I went with Amaya. I have enough added confidence in Amaya's bat to overcome the position difference.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:03 am 
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toonsterwu wrote:
Marco Hernandez. He's the guy that has a chance to be considered a top shelf prospect (that is, a potential top 50 type prospect down the line if there's positive development). Before people jump on me and point out that I've been bigger on Marco than most, ask yourself this - how big is the difference between Jurickson Profar's ceiling and Marco Hernandez's ceiling (again, only talking about ceiling, not anything to do with how developed they are). The difference in ceiling between Lindor and Hernandez is minimal as well, and while Hak-ju Lee's defense is superior to Marco's, his offensive ceiling isn't (again ... ceiling is the only thing I'm discussing here). Shortstops with some power potential, solid defensive ability, and bat speed to potentially hit for average aren't exactly everywhere. Yes, the approach is a concern, but he showed development in that regards at both stops. Considering age and level, that's enough to hope on the tools.


This post makes WSR's love for Golden look justified.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:07 am 
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Amaya.
Sure, when in doubt, pick the SS.

But slugging, HR's, getting on base, and scoring runs is part of baseball. I'm not doubting in taking:
.502 slugging versus .373
.885 OPS versus .660
.383 OBP versus .287
8HR/272 AB versus 7HR/426 AB. (80% higher HR rate for Amaya)
33BB/272 AB versus 19BB/426 AB. (172% higher walk rate for Amaya)
1.103 OPS versus .487 OPS versus LHP. (Amaya's OPS versus RHP was also higher.)

Amaya had 9 errors versus 32 for Hernandez.

The present offensive profile for the two guys is not really close. Marco is an excellent prospect, but there's quite a bit of projection/imagination required to transform a .287OBP/.373 slugger with .487OPS-vs-LHP into a top-50 prospect. As a good-fielding 2B with who can hit, I'm going with Amaya. My understanding is that Amaya also scouts really favorably as a hitter, and that he is viewed as being really good as a bat-handler.

It will be great if hernandez breaks out as a hitter this year, and starts to show some hint that he'll be able to do at least a little something versus LHP.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:12 am 
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When looking at rate stats, it's probably best to remember that Amaya's are buoyed by a BABIP 73 points higher than Hernandez (.360 to .287).

Given that it's WAY too early to make any statements about Amaya's ability to sustain BABIPs like that, the gap probably isn't nearly as large as it first appears.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:35 am 
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craig wrote:
8HR/272 AB versus 7HR/426 AB. (80% higher HR rate for Amaya)
33BB/272 AB versus 19BB/426 AB. (172% higher walk rate for Amaya)


It's kind of ridiculous to talk about the percentage difference between percents like that.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 9:47 am 
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jersey cubs fan wrote:
craig wrote:
8HR/272 AB versus 7HR/426 AB. (80% higher HR rate for Amaya)
33BB/272 AB versus 19BB/426 AB. (172% higher walk rate for Amaya)


It's kind of ridiculous to talk about the percentage difference between percents like that.

Out of curiosity, why do you think that's the case?

The difference between rates very meaningful. Expressing it as a ratio itself seems to be fine.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 10:01 am 
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Tim wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
craig wrote:
8HR/272 AB versus 7HR/426 AB. (80% higher HR rate for Amaya)
33BB/272 AB versus 19BB/426 AB. (172% higher walk rate for Amaya)


It's kind of ridiculous to talk about the percentage difference between percents like that.

Out of curiosity, why do you think that's the case?

The difference between rates very meaningful. Expressing it as a ratio itself seems to be fine.


A 1.6% rate increasing to a 2.9% rate being called "80% higher" is purposefully done to make it seem much more extreme than it is. In that example above, you are talking about a guy hitting 17 HR vs a guy who hit 10 over the course of a full season. A difference, but not that huge of a difference in real terms. It's just unnecessary and purposefully misleading to describe the percentage change between those percentages.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 10:31 am 
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since my favorite thing to look at is always 650 PA paces...

Marco: 85 R, 34 2B, 9 3B, 7 HR, 76 RBI, 27 SB, 38:88 (.284/.326/.404)
Amaya: 103 R, 20 2B, 18 3B, 7 HR, 77 RBI, 36 SB, 58:107 (.316/.389/.455)

Marco Hernandez looks like he could be Orlando Cabrera if all goes well, albeit with a slightly less superlative glove; that adds up to average-ish type starter upside

i could almost see Amaya being Ray Durham in a perfect, just world where the heavens shine down brightly on the Cubs

i voted Amaya

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 11:35 am 
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Castro's Spray Chart wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:
Marco Hernandez. He's the guy that has a chance to be considered a top shelf prospect (that is, a potential top 50 type prospect down the line if there's positive development). Before people jump on me and point out that I've been bigger on Marco than most, ask yourself this - how big is the difference between Jurickson Profar's ceiling and Marco Hernandez's ceiling (again, only talking about ceiling, not anything to do with how developed they are). The difference in ceiling between Lindor and Hernandez is minimal as well, and while Hak-ju Lee's defense is superior to Marco's, his offensive ceiling isn't (again ... ceiling is the only thing I'm discussing here). Shortstops with some power potential, solid defensive ability, and bat speed to potentially hit for average aren't exactly everywhere. Yes, the approach is a concern, but he showed development in that regards at both stops. Considering age and level, that's enough to hope on the tools.


This post makes WSR's love for Golden look justified.


Really? How so? That's sort of a ridiculous and insulting comment, IMO. I really have no [expletive] idea how to respond to this. If you made the argument that craig made, fine. But no where in there did I say that he would be a top 50 prospect. Heck, you are saying that WSR arguing for Golden, a guy almost no one is putting in the top 20 right now, is the same as me advocating for Marco at 18 on this list, a guy almost everyone has top 20, and many have top 15. Golden isn't a guy that is considered a top 20 prospect by most, people, whereas Marco is. I didn't advocate for Marco in the top 10 - only around 12/13 (too lazy to check right now). If you wanted to argue that Profar's age being younger makes that comment ridiculous, fine. But Profar finished last year in A ball (with minor splits issues, IIRC ... albeit not like Marco's but that's an interesting side note ... his splits, IIRC, were actually pretty horrendous in the NWL), so development happened within a year. What did I say at the end? Enough to hope on tools? How is anything I said anywhere remotely as ridiculous as comparing my arguing for Marco at 18 to WSR arguing for Golden in the [expletive] top 20? I really don't [expletive] get jackass comments like that. If you made a legitimate argument, I could get that, but there's nothing legitimate ... it's just a bunch of [expletive] drivel. Craig's comment and argument I get (again, people forget how awful Profar's splits were in the NWL, so it's not like development can't occur). Heck, if craig is willing to share (and if I'm breaking confidences, I apologize), I would ask him to show the comment that he got on Marco Hernandez from his source as it pertains to Marco's potential.

What I simply argued is that, if all goes well with both players, Marco Hernandez has the higher ceiling than Amaya. I imagine you are reacting this way because of my comment on comparing Marco's ceiling to some of the top shortstops and the top 50 comment. If that top 50 comment is some sort of issue, then I don't know what to say [expletive] say because I said that is, a potential top 50 type prospect down the line if there's positive development. How is that a ridiculous comment, unless you don't think he has the tools?

Go compare reports of Profar/Lindor/Lee's ceiling to Hernandez and tell me how I'm wrong in a discussion on ceiling. I imagine, particularly, that the comparison to Profar is what's standing out. People act like Profar is going to be some ridiculous offensive stud. I think people forget that Profar's offensive ability being viewed as excellent is in the context of position. He's not likely to be Miguel Cabrera. He's going to be a very good offensive player overall, but an excellent offensive player for his position. Profar also doesn't have superb top of the line tools, but rather, very good tools and a lot of polish. Don't forget that there's legitimate debate on how much power Profar will have. He has average speed, maybe a tick above, but good range and lateral movement, along with instincts. So again, I ask, where I am wrong in saying where is the major difference between Marco's ceiling and Profar's ceiling? Where am I wrong in saying Marco is a shortstop that has some potential power, solid defensively ability, and bat speed. I can actually find public comments that note all three. No where in there am I discussing the probability yet of Marco to reach said ceiling, as I simply noted that's enough to hope on the tools.

And yes, I am sort of pissed at this type of ridiculous [expletive] comment.


Last edited by toonsterwu on Thu Jan 03, 2013 12:08 pm, edited 4 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 11:39 am 
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I may be wrong but I took the SS over the 2B prospect.
I can't wait to see them both in Kane County.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 3:52 pm 
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toonsterwu wrote:
Castro's Spray Chart wrote:
toonsterwu wrote:
Marco Hernandez. He's the guy that has a chance to be considered a top shelf prospect (that is, a potential top 50 type prospect down the line if there's positive development). Before people jump on me and point out that I've been bigger on Marco than most, ask yourself this - how big is the difference between Jurickson Profar's ceiling and Marco Hernandez's ceiling (again, only talking about ceiling, not anything to do with how developed they are). The difference in ceiling between Lindor and Hernandez is minimal as well, and while Hak-ju Lee's defense is superior to Marco's, his offensive ceiling isn't (again ... ceiling is the only thing I'm discussing here). Shortstops with some power potential, solid defensive ability, and bat speed to potentially hit for average aren't exactly everywhere. Yes, the approach is a concern, but he showed development in that regards at both stops. Considering age and level, that's enough to hope on the tools.


This post makes WSR's love for Golden look justified.


Really? How so? That's sort of a ridiculous and insulting comment, IMO. I really have no [expletive] idea how to respond to this. If you made the argument that craig made, fine. But no where in there did I say that he would be a top 50 prospect. Heck, you are saying that WSR arguing for Golden, a guy almost no one is putting in the top 20 right now, is the same as me advocating for Marco at 18 on this list, a guy almost everyone has top 20, and many have top 15. Golden isn't a guy that is considered a top 20 prospect by most, people, whereas Marco is. I didn't advocate for Marco in the top 10 - only around 12/13 (too lazy to check right now). If you wanted to argue that Profar's age being younger makes that comment ridiculous, fine. But Profar finished last year in A ball (with minor splits issues, IIRC ... albeit not like Marco's but that's an interesting side note ... his splits, IIRC, were actually pretty horrendous in the NWL), so development happened within a year. What did I say at the end? Enough to hope on tools? How is anything I said anywhere remotely as ridiculous as comparing my arguing for Marco at 18 to WSR arguing for Golden in the [expletive] top 20? I really don't [expletive] get jackass comments like that. If you made a legitimate argument, I could get that, but there's nothing legitimate ... it's just a bunch of [expletive] drivel. Craig's comment and argument I get (again, people forget how awful Profar's splits were in the NWL, so it's not like development can't occur). Heck, if craig is willing to share (and if I'm breaking confidences, I apologize), I would ask him to show the comment that he got on Marco Hernandez from his source as it pertains to Marco's potential.

What I simply argued is that, if all goes well with both players, Marco Hernandez has the higher ceiling than Amaya. I imagine you are reacting this way because of my comment on comparing Marco's ceiling to some of the top shortstops and the top 50 comment. If that top 50 comment is some sort of issue, then I don't know what to say [expletive] say because I said that is, a potential top 50 type prospect down the line if there's positive development. How is that a ridiculous comment, unless you don't think he has the tools?

Go compare reports of Profar/Lindor/Lee's ceiling to Hernandez and tell me how I'm wrong in a discussion on ceiling. I imagine, particularly, that the comparison to Profar is what's standing out. People act like Profar is going to be some ridiculous offensive stud. I think people forget that Profar's offensive ability being viewed as excellent is in the context of position. He's not likely to be Miguel Cabrera. He's going to be a very good offensive player overall, but an excellent offensive player for his position. Profar also doesn't have superb top of the line tools, but rather, very good tools and a lot of polish. Don't forget that there's legitimate debate on how much power Profar will have. He has average speed, maybe a tick above, but good range and lateral movement, along with instincts. So again, I ask, where I am wrong in saying where is the major difference between Marco's ceiling and Profar's ceiling? Where am I wrong in saying Marco is a shortstop that has some potential power, solid defensively ability, and bat speed. I can actually find public comments that note all three. No where in there am I discussing the probability yet of Marco to reach said ceiling, as I simply noted that's enough to hope on the tools.

And yes, I am sort of pissed at this type of ridiculous [expletive] comment.


I can tell. Look, I know you take your prospects seriously, and I appreciate a lot of your insight. But you are the only one advocating for Hernandez in a landslide here, and the sentiment of that comment, though maybe not the veiled insult, was warranted.

You're approaching a very slippery slope with your "discussion on ceiling" qualifier. I agree he's got some tools, but he hasn't shown the contact ability to go with the bat speed tool or the power to go with the frame or any semblance of patience. I think you know your premise is flawed when it allows for a comparison between a guy straddling the back 20 of an organization ranked in the teens with a top-5 overall prospect.

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2008 his one big year
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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 5:36 pm 
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jersey cubs fan wrote:
Tim wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
craig wrote:
8HR/272 AB versus 7HR/426 AB. (80% higher HR rate for Amaya)
33BB/272 AB versus 19BB/426 AB. (172% higher walk rate for Amaya)


It's kind of ridiculous to talk about the percentage difference between percents like that.

Out of curiosity, why do you think that's the case?

The difference between rates very meaningful. Expressing it as a ratio itself seems to be fine.


A 1.6% rate increasing to a 2.9% rate being called "80% higher" is purposefully done to make it seem much more extreme than it is. In that example above, you are talking about a guy hitting 17 HR vs a guy who hit 10 over the course of a full season. A difference, but not that huge of a difference in real terms. It's just unnecessary and purposefully misleading to describe the percentage change between those percentages.


I see your point, although it was not "purposely misleading." The raw numbers (8 HR to 7, 33 walks to 19) didn't seem to reflect how much better Amaya's rates had been, so I popped the rate ratios in for convenience. And of course I was just grabbing them from a stats page, which did not have them listed in rates (1.6% or 2.9%). So you did more rate work than I did to come up with those. (Or use a better site....) I guess partly a purpose of writing in a forum like this, at least for me, is to process ideas myself. (Not to mislead others or be disingenuous.)

Last year my take was that Marco had power potential, but Amaya had no ceiling because he was a barney (no-power/no-walks). This year he walked quite a bit, and showed power, so perhaps his "ceiling" is somewhat respectable. If he could be a good-fielding 2B who hit 10-15 HR's per year and takes walks, that would be a good starting 2B. I could live with a Todd Walker offensive player who could play defense and run the bases.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:39 pm 
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Castro's Spray Chart wrote:

I can tell. Look, I know you take your prospects seriously, and I appreciate a lot of your insight. But you are the only one advocating for Hernandez in a landslide here, and the sentiment of that comment, though maybe not the veiled insult, was warranted.

You're approaching a very slippery slope with your "discussion on ceiling" qualifier. I agree he's got some tools, but he hasn't shown the contact ability to go with the bat speed tool or the power to go with the frame or any semblance of patience. I think you know your premise is flawed when it allows for a comparison between a guy straddling the back 20 of an organization ranked in the teens with a top-5 overall prospect.


I think your original post referencing Golden was an ignorant and lazy response. I'm not surprised that it was received the way it was. It's like knocking over a kid's sand castle. Needlessly destructive and careless. But, this is, of course, the internet.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 7:52 pm 
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I like Amaya's bat.

I have enough faith in the other Cub's prospects to think that Marco is not going to play SS in the majors.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 8:22 pm 
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Quakers wrote:
I like Amaya's bat.

I have enough faith in the other Cub's prospects to think that Marco is not going to play SS in the majors.


If Marco plays in the majors, I think it will be at SS. I won't go as far as to say he'll make Castro move to 3B (and potentially Baez to the OF), but Marco's bat likely won't play well anywhere else but middle IF. And he's far too good defensively at SS to waste some of his ability at 2B.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 10:17 pm 
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Sounds like trade bait if he gets good.

We've rarely (ever?) had enough good young players for a good one to be blocked, such that trading a valuable young player would make sense. But perhaps that day will come. Could be Marco, if he gets good enough to be valuable. Could be Baez himself. Maybe Vogelbach. Perhaps some day an outfielder?


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 03, 2013 10:59 pm 
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jumbo wrote:
Castro's Spray Chart wrote:

I can tell. Look, I know you take your prospects seriously, and I appreciate a lot of your insight. But you are the only one advocating for Hernandez in a landslide here, and the sentiment of that comment, though maybe not the veiled insult, was warranted.

You're approaching a very slippery slope with your "discussion on ceiling" qualifier. I agree he's got some tools, but he hasn't shown the contact ability to go with the bat speed tool or the power to go with the frame or any semblance of patience. I think you know your premise is flawed when it allows for a comparison between a guy straddling the back 20 of an organization ranked in the teens with a top-5 overall prospect.


I think your original post referencing Golden was an ignorant and lazy response. I'm not surprised that it was received the way it was. It's like knocking over a kid's sand castle. Needlessly destructive and careless. But, this is, of course, the internet.


Completely agree, especially so since toonster's premise wasn't outlandish. Marco Hernandez does have a top-50 prospect ceiling and has shown something professionally, unlike Golden.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:18 am 
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craig wrote:
Sounds like trade bait if he gets good.

We've rarely (ever?) had enough good young players for a good one to be blocked, such that trading a valuable young player would make sense. But perhaps that day will come. Could be Marco, if he gets good enough to be valuable. Could be Baez himself. Maybe Vogelbach. Perhaps some day an outfielder?

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #18 prospect (Run-Off)?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 05, 2013 9:32 pm 
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Marco wins.

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