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Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
Poll ended at Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:34 pm
Jose Arias 5%  5%  [ 4 ]
Steve Bruno 20%  20%  [ 16 ]
Marcelo Carreno 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Willson Contreras 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Shawon Dunston Jr. 4%  4%  [ 3 ]
Reggie Golden 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Marcus Hatley 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Michael Jensen 20%  20%  [ 16 ]
Eric Jokisch 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Austin Kirk 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Matt Loosen 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Justin Marra 1%  1%  [ 1 ]
Trey Martin 17%  17%  [ 14 ]
Ryan McNeil 4%  4%  [ 3 ]
Carlos Penalver 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
James Pugliese 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Jose Rosario 2%  2%  [ 2 ]
Tayler Scott 6%  6%  [ 5 ]
Nick Struck 11%  11%  [ 9 ]
Total votes : 81
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 Post subject: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:34 pm 
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Please vote for the Cubs #30 prospect (serious votes only, please!). Please post your rationale below.

If someone convinces you that someone else should be higher, please feel free to change your vote anytime between now and Thursday.

For this vote, you should select the players you feel should be #30, #31 and #32. If we end up with multiple players having similar vote totals at the end of the voting period, there will be a run-off with just those players.

Results so far:

#1: Javier Baez
#2: Jorge Soler
#3: Albert Almora
#4: Arodys Vizcaino
#5: Dan Vogelbach
#6: Brett Jackson
#7: Juan Paniagua
#8: Christian Villanueva
#9: Dillon Maples
#10: Josh Vitters
#11: Pierce Johnson
#12: Junior Lake
#13: Jeimer Candelario
#14: Duane Underwood
#15: Matt Szczur
#16: Arismendy Alcantara
#17: Ronald Torreyes
#18: Marco Hernandez
#19: Gioskar Amaya
#20: Alberto Cabrera
#21: Logan Watkins
#22: Rob Whitenack
#23: Barrett Loux
#24: Ben Wells
#25: Paul Blackburn
#26: Hector Rondon
#27: Tony Zych
#28: Jae-Hoon Ha
#29: Trey McNutt

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 9:59 am 
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Jensen
Bruno
Martin

Same as last time. Maybe I'll be in sync this time.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:07 am 
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Bilbo161 wrote:
Jensen
Bruno
Martin

Same as last time. Maybe I'll be in sync this time.


I've got the same three.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 12:16 pm 
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Jensen, Martin, Struck. I really do like Jensen more than the rest, but I think you could make a decent case for several guys. I mean, Penalver might be the best defensive shortstop in the system.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 2:24 pm 
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I went with Martin, Jensen and Arias.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:52 pm 
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Jensen
Martin
McNeil


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 9:00 pm 
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Jensen
Bruno
Scott


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 10:45 am 
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It's pretty amazing to me that Jensen threw 140 innings in A ball this year and had a 2.6BB/9 and 0.4HR/9... and he could be our 30th best prospect.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 11:34 am 
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I really think Jensen should be a tick higher. Not a lot, but a tick. If he was put in the pen, like Rondon/Zych/McNutt, is he that much below them? If not, his mid-rotation ceiling potential should put him on par, if not higher, than those guys (and I recognize I voted for Rondon ahead of Jensen, but I sort of regret that now). I guess, the flip side is that one could argue that Rondon/McNutt could still perhaps be given a look in the rotation in the near future (I still wonder if McNutt gets one last rotation look ... Rondon probably wouldn't get a look this year barring a trade with the Indians to allow them to put him in the minors).

Not that any organization's future is made off of it's 30-50 guys in any given year, but this is as strong as a post-30 crop as I can recall in the past few years.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:02 pm 
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toonsterwu wrote:
I really think Jensen should be a tick higher. Not a lot, but a tick. If he was put in the pen, like Rondon/Zych/McNutt, is he that much below them? If not, his mid-rotation ceiling potential should put him on par, if not higher, than those guys (and I recognize I voted for Rondon ahead of Jensen, but I sort of regret that now). I guess, the flip side is that one could argue that Rondon/McNutt could still perhaps be given a look in the rotation in the near future (I still wonder if McNutt gets one last rotation look ... Rondon probably wouldn't get a look this year barring a trade with the Indians to allow them to put him in the minors).

Not that any organization's future is made off of it's 30-50 guys in any given year, but this is as strong as a post-30 crop as I can recall in the past few years.

I kind of agree, but Jensen is 22 and just finished A ball. Rondon was in AAA at 21 and put up decent numbers 74IP, 7.7K/9, 1.6BB/9, 1HR/9, next season he appears to have gotten hurt, under 40 IP and numbers sucked. Mcnutt was in A at about 2 years younger than Jensen and put up even better numbers than him there, 59IP, 0HR, 10.6K/9, 3.6BB/9, Zych was in A+/AA at 21, year younger than Jensen, this past year and put up better numbers as well 9.4k/9, 2.8bb/9, .1hr/9. So I think his ranking is right, all those have had success at higher levels while being younger than Jensen.


Last edited by Cubswin11 on Thu Jan 31, 2013 1:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:38 pm 
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Well, there is certainly a measure of ... we know what the other guys can't do (I guess you could call it SNTS). I guess it also comes down to how much one values starting potential. I tend to lean towards, for lack of a better way to phrase it right now, giving a starter a decent bump over a pen arm if they are viewed fairly close.

I get the arguments on Rondon and McNutt (think it's a bit unfair to judge numbers on Zych vs. Jensen due to different roles), and as noted, I wonder if they get one last rotation look (although the chances of Rondon getting said look this year is tough ... and therein lies why I have a hard time buying that he'll get a look ... because he'll be age 26 in 2014, assuming we even keep him, and sending him back to AAA to get stretched out at that point ... don't know ... this of course assumes we even keep him).

I guess my thinking is this - Jensen's fastball/breaking ball combination (I'm still assuming that in the pen he could consistently hit mid-90's, if not better, without losing much movement ... that velocity would only be a tick above what he can occasionally top out at now as a starter) would still give him late inning potential, putting him on par with the other three, but he seems to have a better chance, as of now, to get a look as a starter, and despite being lower, there's where I'd give a tiny bump to.

That said, just to be clear, it's not like I can't understand why those three are ahead (and I voted for Rondon first). I can definitely understand why.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 12:40 pm 
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Nick Struck is only a year older than Jensen and just put up very similar numbers in AAA.

I like Jensen a bit better than Struck on account of the scouting reports, but I have a hard time arguing to take him over guys with decent scouting reports like Rondon/Zych/McNutt. Age relative to league is a big factor working against Jensen right now.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:33 pm 
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Rob wrote:
Nick Struck is only a year older than Jensen and just put up very similar numbers in AAA.

I like Jensen a bit better than Struck on account of the scouting reports, but I have a hard time arguing to take him over guys with decent scouting reports like Rondon/Zych/McNutt. Age relative to league is a big factor working against Jensen right now.



I think I've been overlooking Stuck's numbers last year. Those are pretty damn impressive. I guess the aggressive promotions and mediocre numbers in 2011 put a damper on my opinion of him. I'm going to have to change my vote.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:44 pm 
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The fact the Cubs left him unprotected weighs on my mind when ranking him. The fact he then went unpicked weighs even more.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 4:57 pm 
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I went:

Arais
Martin
Bruno


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 5:03 pm 
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scarey wrote:
Rob wrote:
Nick Struck is only a year older than Jensen and just put up very similar numbers in AAA.

I like Jensen a bit better than Struck on account of the scouting reports, but I have a hard time arguing to take him over guys with decent scouting reports like Rondon/Zych/McNutt. Age relative to league is a big factor working against Jensen right now.



I think I've been overlooking Stuck's numbers last year. Those are pretty damn impressive. I guess the aggressive promotions and mediocre numbers in 2011 put a damper on my opinion of him. I'm going to have to change my vote.


There's a lot of things I like about Struck, but he really doesn't have a plus pitch. He does have some velocity on the fastball and decent enough secondaries to keep guys honest, to go along with his aggressive attack mode. I keep wondering if he might be better in the pen, where he can focus on one breaking ball (and perhaps kick up his fastball a notch), but if he's aggressive and throwing strikes with 3 pitches, as he can, he'll be kept as a starter for the near future, just for depth's sake.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is the #30 Prospect for the Cubs?
PostPosted: Mon Feb 11, 2013 6:12 pm 
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davell wrote:
The fact the Cubs left him unprotected weighs on my mind when ranking him. The fact he then went unpicked weighs even more.


Agree. And 14 HR allowed. It seems teams don't see a lot of buzz. But, he'll still pitch this whole season at age 23. As toonster notes, it's the lack of any above-average pitch that's an issue. You kind of need at least one good pitch in the majors, I think. But coaching and tinkering can sometimes change an average breaking ball into a good one. Hopefully that happens with him.

On the age thing, it means a ton, but I like to be a little careful with that too. Different guys start pro at different ages. If you sign as a young Latin, and you've got any potential, you better be hitting leagues at younger ages than a college pick, for example. But you might not have as much improvement left. Future improvement is partly a function of age, but also of experience and challenges/adjustments you haven't needed to make before, or coaching adjustments that you haven't had the coaching to receive before.

So a guy like Lake, for example, his being 22 now isn't as effectively "young" as a 22-year-old out of college.


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