BP top 101

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BP top 101

Postby davell » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:53 pm

6 Cubs make the list.....Torres at 41, Contreras at 57, Happ at 67, McKinney at 74, Almora at 83, and Eddy Julio Martinez at 97.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby davell » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:56 pm

Double
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Re: BP top 101

Postby David » Mon Jan 25, 2016 7:58 pm

i remember when having a bunch of top 100 guys seemed pretty awesome

now i'm like nobody in the top 25? MEH
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Re: BP top 101

Postby davell » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:05 pm

David wrote:i remember when having a bunch of top 100 guys seemed pretty awesome

now i'm like nobody in the top 25? MEH


Its pretty awesome considering the graduations we've had.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:06 pm

6 guys in the top 100 and 4 in the top 75 is pretty amazing considering the graduations, how many other teams even have that many on the list?
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Re: BP top 101

Postby David » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:11 pm

i predict:

almora is back in the top 50 by the time midseason lists roll around

contreras into the top 50 of all lists

EJM off all lists
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Re: BP top 101

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:12 pm

David wrote:i predict:

almora is back in the top 50 by the time midseason lists roll around

contreras into the top 50 of all lists

EJM off all lists

I like that prediction, also I think 1 of Eloy, Jeimer or the pitchers gets into the top 100-75, Happ inside top 40 and Torres is top 25.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:25 pm

I lol'd:

2. Byron Buxton, OF, Minnesota Twins It may be an exercise in hyperbole to refer to our no. 2 prospect as a “post-hype sleeper” (especially since he’s been our no. 1 prospect the last two years), but in an industry always on the lookout for the next new hotness, Buxton qualifies as old news.


Can't wait for the wind to blow again this year!
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Re: BP top 101

Postby davell » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:32 pm

Considering the amount of guys who made it, I'm surprised Underwood wasn't on it. I'm surprised that both of Almora/McKinney made it. I'll take a wait and see approach on EJM. Its basically Badler vs Kiley and Law as to who's right on him. And I tend to side with the guys who saw him after he defected over the guy who hasn't.(Badler)

Remember, he was offered around 10 mill by the Yankees, but pushed his eligibility into the next period, thinking they'd get the Giants and Dodgers in a bidding war. The Giants signed Fox for less and didn't have it in their budget to still give EJM 10. The Dodgers dropped their bid accordingly, then fired their entire IFA department. Which is when we grabbed him, as he had had enough and wanted to be signed. Kiley and Law both thought we stole him.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:33 pm

David wrote:i remember when having a bunch of top 100 guys seemed pretty awesome

now i'm like nobody in the top 25? MEH


Same. Probably a factor into why any big trades as buyers hasn't happened yet.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jan 25, 2016 8:41 pm

davell wrote:Considering the amount of guys who made it, I'm surprised Underwood wasn't on it. I'm surprised that both of Almora/McKinney made it. I'll take a wait and see approach on EJM. Its basically Badler vs Kiley and Law as to who's right on him. And I tend to side with the guys who saw him after he defected over the guy who hasn't.(Badler)

Remember, he was offered around 10 mill by the Yankees, but pushed his eligibility into the next period, thinking they'd get the Giants and Dodgers in a bidding war. The Giants signed Fox for less and didn't have it in their budget to still give EJM 10. The Dodgers dropped their bid accordingly, then fired their entire IFA department. Which is when we grabbed him, as he had had enough and wanted to be signed. Kiley and Law both thought we stole him.


I can't get the fascination with this guy these days, but beyond that it's easy to see why he didn't make it. He missed a big chunk of the season to an elbow injury, only got 73 innings in, and his periphs aren't really dominant besides a strong H/9. This in what was, by far, his best pro season. He's got arm strength and put up a nice ERA, sure. In 2016 it's probably harder to find the guys who don't throw hard than do and ERA is ERA.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Jan 25, 2016 9:59 pm

Nice.

I don't know what to make of this year's rankings. There were so many elite prospects that graduated last year, and this year is just meh. I think that we might have a better understanding at mid-season. I think there is a lot of room to go up and down on this list, even without factoring in possible call-ups. I am hoping to see Contreras and Almora make a leap up. I would also be thrilled to see Cease and De La Cruz pop up on there.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby davell » Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:13 pm

Yeah, the system is a nice blend of role players at the high levels and some serious upside at the lower ones. EJM, Cease, Jimenez, Delacruz, maybe Sands or Steele, maybe even DJ Wilson, could all take massive leaps next year. Obviously, they all won't. But if just 1 or 2 does, the system begins to look better on paper again. And I think I'd take that bet quickly myself.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:24 pm

davell wrote:Yeah, the system is a nice blend of role players at the high levels and some serious upside at the lower ones. EJM, Cease, Jimenez, Delacruz, maybe Sands or Steele, maybe even DJ Wilson, could all take massive leaps next year. Obviously, they all won't. But if just 1 or 2 does, the system begins to look better on paper again. And I think I'd take that bet quickly myself.


Yep. That's why I am holding out my hopes most for big years from Contreras and Almora. (Candelario, too, to a much lesser extent.) They both have a nice floor, mainly because of their contact abilities and defensive value. But, they don't really wow you. Also, they are close to the majors and could fill a couple of spots where we could conceivably use them.

After them, there isn't anyone exciting that is close to ready. But, I know a guy or two in the lower levels will eventually blossom -- there is just so much depth there. So I am just gonna patiently wait to see who that is and not get too worked up about any of them struggling.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby TomtheBombadil » Mon Jan 25, 2016 10:37 pm

I wonder who becomes the 2016 Contreras in the system - a guy noooobody is talking about that flies up to top prospect.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby davell » Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:03 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I wonder who becomes the 2016 Contreras in the system - a guy noooobody is talking about that flies up to top prospect.


I'll go with Markey. I don't think Clifton is far enough off the radar to meet where Contreras was last year. I'm not even sure Markey qualifies, as he'd make my top 30.

I'll say Penalver. He's got the defensive ability to play SS in the majors, a .675-.700 OPS showing in Tennessee(remote at best) would put him on some radars. Hard to pick from what's outside our top 30 currently.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby Cubswin11 » Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:07 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I wonder who becomes the 2016 Contreras in the system - a guy noooobody is talking about that flies up to top prospect.

Zagunis would be my pick if that's not to obvious/highly touted of a guy
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Re: BP top 101

Postby Duke Silver » Mon Jan 25, 2016 11:08 pm

TomtheBombadil wrote:I wonder who becomes the 2016 Contreras in the system - a guy noooobody is talking about that flies up to top prospect.


I love Brad Markey, but as davell said, he's not really completely off-the-radar, or at least I don't think he should be. He's definitely in my top 30. So, how about Jeffrey Baez.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jan 26, 2016 12:38 am

I can't imagine any of Markey, Baez, or Penalver emerge as top 75 or better prospects in the game. I don't think we need to dig *so* deep, Contreras was still a top 20 system guy last year and just nobody talked about him much.

I just don't see anything standout enough about any of those guys. I like Markey in a Zach Godley kind of way, but hard to imagine a shorter 24 YO RH making that kind of leap into the mainstream as a prospect. Penalver's too punchless, though he's on a solid track to float around the big leagues for some time as a Ronny Cedeno type. Baez is barely a prospect to me at this point, and I say this as one of the first to notice him in the system back when he was one of their top DSL performers at 17.

Zagunis has a shot. At 23 this year he's in some meat years for power, and as AA isn't the majors he just might show some. Throw in his now mainstream popular org, his eye and contact skills, contact especially riding a little high as a skill, and you have a guy who could do well in these published prospect lists.

I'm full Kellogg this year...I'd give Clifton a shot, but that kind of breakout and/or attention might be another year off. Staying healthy and racking up 130-140 innings with his career periphs would be fine, but probably wouldn't get him a ton of national attention in the form of a top 75 or better ranking. Kellogg is someone I can go on and on about as a player, and I am excited to see this season play out. I've never seen that guy not improve as a player, somehow, and don't expect that to stop in his first full season a pro with such a good organization. I'm basically expecting a LH Hendricks in many ways, but stronger and more durable.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby davell » Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:07 am

Contreras wasn't a top 30 guy last year by most accounts.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby Duke Silver » Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:14 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:I can't imagine any of Markey, Baez, or Penalver emerge as top 75 or better prospects in the game. I don't think we need to dig *so* deep, Contreras was still a top 20 system guy last year and just nobody talked about him much.

I just don't see anything standout enough about any of those guys. I like Markey in a Zach Godley kind of way, but hard to imagine a shorter 24 YO RH making that kind of leap into the mainstream as a prospect. Penalver's too punchless, though he's on a solid track to float around the big leagues for some time as a Ronny Cedeno type. Baez is barely a prospect to me at this point, and I say this as one of the first to notice him in the system back when he was one of their top DSL performers at 17.

Zagunis has a shot. At 23 this year he's in some meat years for power, and as AA isn't the majors he just might show some. Throw in his now mainstream popular org, his eye and contact skills, contact especially riding a little high as a skill, and you have a guy who could do well in these published prospect lists.

I'm full Kellogg this year...I'd give Clifton a shot, but that kind of breakout and/or attention might be another year off. Staying healthy and racking up 130-140 innings with his career periphs would be fine, but probably wouldn't get him a ton of national attention in the form of a top 75 or better ranking. Kellogg is someone I can go on and on about as a player, and I am excited to see this season play out. I've never seen that guy not improve as a player, somehow, and don't expect that to stop in his first full season a pro with such a good organization. I'm basically expecting a LH Hendricks in many ways, but stronger and more durable.


First of all, Contreras was not a top-20 guy last year, at this time. I'm not even sure he was a top-40 guy. I mean, maybe in someone's list he was, but that person probably would have been labeled as crazy to think as such. He was coming off of a season with a .679 OPS as a 22-year-old in high-A and he wasn't viewed exactly as have a great pedigree. I've looked through a few lists from last year and don't see him anywhere near the top 20. He isn't even in the top 30, or in the honorable mention, for that matter. I don't think he was in NSBB's top 30, either.

So, that being said, what are you looking for with your question? I said Jeffrey Baez because, well, I don't think it is likely that he becomes a top prospect -- about as likely as I thought Willson Contreras becoming a top prospect was last year. Also, if you had given me the top-75 parameter originally, then I probably wouldn't have chosen him. However, there is a chance he becomes a top-75 guy. He would need to do something like hitting 25-30 homers, stealing 40 bases, and getting his walk rate up to 10% or so to do so. But, it's possible. It's possible in the sense that, horsefeathers, some guy not in our top 40 last year led the Southern League in batting.

I'm simply trying to name a person who fit your parameter of "a guy noooobody is talking about that flies up to top prospect." But, now it seems that you want to mention guys that a lot of people are talking about, which doesn't really fit with Contreras's profile of last year. Baez does fit that profile: Older prospect; unclaimed in the Rule 5; nobody mentions him; if you squint enough there might be something there. Anyway, I'll amend my answer: I don't think anyone will do what Contreras did last year and jump from out of our own top 40 into the top 50 in all of baseball. It's not gonna happen. That's not as fun, though. I thought the question was fun, but not if you want us to be realistic. If we have to be realistic, then there is no acceptable answer.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby TomtheBombadil » Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:17 am

davell wrote:Contreras wasn't a top 30 guy last year by most accounts.


Ugh you're right...That's so dramatic. I thought at least Sickels had him in there. Who goes from consensus not-a-system-top-30 to top 60 or potentially better overall prospect at 23, 7 years into a pro career? That's odd, but so is ranking prospects instead of talking about them.

In my defense, I had him safely in the top 30, IIRC even top 20, and assumed all the big ones did too. I'd still give the Markey/Penalver/Baez trio an exceptionally long shot at taking the kind of leap Contreras did.
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Re: BP top 101

Postby David » Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:17 am

davell wrote:Contreras wasn't a top 30 guy last year by most accounts.


Sickells doesn't mention him at all and lists like 46 guys total here

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2014/12/ ... s-for-2015
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Re: BP top 101

Postby David » Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:18 am

TomtheBombadil wrote:
davell wrote:Contreras wasn't a top 30 guy last year by most accounts.


Ugh you're right...That's so dramatic. I thought at least Sickels had him in there. Who goes from consensus not-a-system-top-30 to top 60 or potentially better prospect at 23, 7 years into a pro career? That's so odd.

In my defense, I had him safely in the top 30, IIRC even top 20, and assumed all the big ones did too. I'd still give the Markey/Penalver/Baez trio an exceptionally long shot at taking the kind of leap Contreras did.


suuuuuuuuure you did
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Re: BP top 101

Postby Tim » Tue Jan 26, 2016 1:19 am

I'm not sure Stinnett makes my top 30 at this point. He could be someone that makes a huge jump in one year.
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