CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:16 pm

We have the benefits of lower population density and being relatively isolated geographically right?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:17 pm

OH NO

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:18 pm

All the old caveats about comparing case totals across countries applies. Everyone has different standards for deciding who to test, which directly impacts how many cases you find.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:18 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:We have the benefits of lower population density and being relatively isolated geographically right?


Given how slow to respond we were and how much our population travels large distances(domestic & international), I'm guessing we pretty much gave away the latter advantage.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:20 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:We have the benefits of lower population density and being relatively isolated geographically right?


Given how slow to respond we were and how much our population travels large distances(domestic & international), I'm guessing we pretty much gave away the latter advantage.


and nearly half of our cases right now are from NY/NJ, and population density is definitely an issue there
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:01 pm

OleMissCub wrote:I'm interested to see how population effects the fact that we will soon have the most cases.

US population: 331 million - 454,615 Covid Cases - 1,373 cases per million
UK, Italy, Germany, France, Spain: 323 million - 590,077 Covid cases - 1,942 cases per million

Edit: Just saw that David was simultaneously doing the same thing I was doing.


All of which doesn't bode well for India.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:15 pm



=D>
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:12 pm

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyh ... stockholm/

This one's in Swedish.

2.5% of nasal swab tests in Stockholm, self-administered in a random sample from March 27-April 3.

Now account for the fact that self-administered swabs only catch 50%-70% of cases. And that you're only testing for currently active cases and that extremely mild cases may only be detectable for a couple of days, so you're missing anyone who already had it and most mild cases. And it's had a week to spread since then.

So probably *at least* 10% of Sweden has it or did have it at this point.

The data points keep rolling in that this is *way* more widespread than official case numbers can account for. We need to be willing to seriously rethink our models and approaches over the next few weeks, because the first wave of the reaction was built on bad assumptions (which couldn't be helped, we had to go with what we had).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:36 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/nyheter-och-press/nyhetsarkiv/2020/april/resultat-fran-undersokning-av-forekomsten-av-covid-19-i-region-stockholm/

This one's in Swedish.

2.5% of nasal swab tests in Stockholm, self-administered in a random sample from March 27-April 3.

Now account for the fact that self-administered swabs only catch 50%-70% of cases. And that you're only testing for currently active cases and that extremely mild cases may only be detectable for a couple of days, so you're missing anyone who already had it and most mild cases. And it's had a week to spread since then.

So probably *at least* 10% of Sweden has it or did have it at this point.

The data points keep rolling in that this is *way* more widespread than official case numbers can account for. We need to be willing to seriously rethink our models and approaches over the next few weeks, because the first wave of the reaction was built on bad assumptions (which couldn't be helped, we had to go with what we had).

If the spread really has been that pervasive, and we are around 30% exposed already, what changes in our approach? Stay in lockdown until local death rates are clearly headed downward and start to get back to business as almost usual, slowly?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Guancous » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:01 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:06 pm

I dunno exactly. It basically changes all the assumptions we used to make our first round of decisions, so we have to be prepared to think on a completely different axis for the next round. Wider spread implies a much lower death rate (that's good) and much more difficult containment (that's bad). The froyo is also cursed.

I could see it going a lot of ways. If we're undercounting at the highest imaginable end, we might already be a significant fraction of the way to herd immunity and it's just a matter of waiting a few months and then moving on with our lives. Like if 20-30% of the population already has had it. We would see deaths 3-4x what we've already seen, which is tragic, but certainly not as bad as we feared. This would be the best scenario.

If our undercounting factor is on the low end, we might still only have like 1-3% of the population infected. That would put us in an awkward situation. We'd have to decide if we want to shoot for herd immunity and accept a lot more deaths (10-30x what we've seen to date) or try to suppress and mitigate, which would be even more costly and might not even be possible. The high R0 would mean that our lockdowns won't be as effective as hoped and we might be stuck at new case and death levels like we are seeing today for months and month. This would be the worst scenario.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:09 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Rob » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:10 pm

I posted something about this in the general chit chat thread, but I guess it's applicable here too.

My 72 year old father-in-law took a nasty fall yesterday out of a second story window. And despite being 5-6 minutes away from both the hospital and the ambulance depot, it took them 40 minutes to get anybody there. And this was after they had to keep redialing 911 because we couldn't even connect to it.

Thankfully it looks like he's going to survive this. But COVID-19 has hospitals so messed up that now is really not the time to be having any sort of medical emergency -- even if it's totally unrelated to COVID-19.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:12 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
If our undercounting factor is on the low end, we might still only have like 1-3% of the population infected. That would put us in an awkward situation.

That all makes sense. At this point, I think its pretty damn unlikely that only 1-3% of Americans have been infected. Testing now, gdi. And not just for the sick. Large random samples should have been done a MONTH ago.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:15 pm

Rob wrote:I posted something about this in the general chit chat thread, but I guess it's applicable here too.

My 72 year old father-in-law took a nasty fall yesterday out of a second story window. And despite being 5-6 minutes away from both the hospital and the ambulance depot, it took them 40 minutes to get anybody there. And this was after they had to keep redialing 911 because we couldn't even connect to it.

Thankfully it looks like he's going to survive this. But COVID-19 has hospitals so messed up that now is really not the time to be having any sort of medical emergency -- even if it's totally unrelated to COVID-19.


A - holy crap. i'm glad he is apparently relatively ok.

B - where do you live? it is hard to imagine not even getting an answer on 911.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:19 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
If our undercounting factor is on the low end, we might still only have like 1-3% of the population infected. That would put us in an awkward situation.

That all makes sense. At this point, I think its pretty damn unlikely that only 1-3% of Americans have been infected. Testing now, gdi. And not just for the sick. Large random samples should have been done a MONTH ago.


not sure if this was ever posted or not. a friend sent me a few days ago. very interested to see what comes of that one.

damn it i posted the wrong tweet and can't find it now but i swear i read something about antibody testing starting somewhere in the US, possibly minnesota/mayo clinic
Last edited by David on Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Rob » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:22 pm

David wrote:
Rob wrote:I posted something about this in the general chit chat thread, but I guess it's applicable here too.

My 72 year old father-in-law took a nasty fall yesterday out of a second story window. And despite being 5-6 minutes away from both the hospital and the ambulance depot, it took them 40 minutes to get anybody there. And this was after they had to keep redialing 911 because we couldn't even connect to it.

Thankfully it looks like he's going to survive this. But COVID-19 has hospitals so messed up that now is really not the time to be having any sort of medical emergency -- even if it's totally unrelated to COVID-19.


A - holy crap. i'm glad he is apparently relatively ok.

B - where do you live? it is hard to imagine not even getting an answer on 911.


A - Yeah, he's got a broken hip and more, and recovery is going to be measured in months. But it could have very easily killed him. There was internal bleeding and with these kinds of ambulance delays that's really scary.

B - They live in Decatur. It's a reasonably decent-sized city of ~75,000 or so. There's two hospitals and only 12 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the county -- about half of whom are sheltering at home. So I'm shocked at how hard it was to get him medical attention.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:26 pm

Rob wrote:
David wrote:
Rob wrote:I posted something about this in the general chit chat thread, but I guess it's applicable here too.

My 72 year old father-in-law took a nasty fall yesterday out of a second story window. And despite being 5-6 minutes away from both the hospital and the ambulance depot, it took them 40 minutes to get anybody there. And this was after they had to keep redialing 911 because we couldn't even connect to it.

Thankfully it looks like he's going to survive this. But COVID-19 has hospitals so messed up that now is really not the time to be having any sort of medical emergency -- even if it's totally unrelated to COVID-19.


A - holy crap. i'm glad he is apparently relatively ok.

B - where do you live? it is hard to imagine not even getting an answer on 911.


A - Yeah, he's got a broken hip and more, and recovery is going to be measured in months. But it could have very easily killed him. There was internal bleeding and with these kinds of ambulance delays that's really scary.

B - They live in Decatur. It's a reasonably decent-sized city of ~75,000 or so. There's two hospitals and only 12 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the county -- about half of whom are sheltering at home. So I'm shocked at how hard it was to get him medical attention.

That’s so weird/bad. Did the storm that came through somehow knock out power/communications and cause problems or were there other emergency calls/accidents coming through at the same time once it passed? Only guess as to why it would ever take that long and that’s still bad.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Rob » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:51 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
Rob wrote:
David wrote:
A - holy crap. i'm glad he is apparently relatively ok.

B - where do you live? it is hard to imagine not even getting an answer on 911.


A - Yeah, he's got a broken hip and more, and recovery is going to be measured in months. But it could have very easily killed him. There was internal bleeding and with these kinds of ambulance delays that's really scary.

B - They live in Decatur. It's a reasonably decent-sized city of ~75,000 or so. There's two hospitals and only 12 confirmed COVID-19 patients in the county -- about half of whom are sheltering at home. So I'm shocked at how hard it was to get him medical attention.

That’s so weird/bad. Did the storm that came through somehow knock out power/communications and cause problems or were there other emergency calls/accidents coming through at the same time once it passed? Only guess as to why it would ever take that long and that’s still bad.


The storm knocked out our power for about 4 seconds. I'm not sure about the rest of the county. But I haven't seen reports of too many incidents or accidents, so I'm really doubting that it did enough damage to warrant these response times.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:26 am

So scientists can determine how much Covid is in an area by testing wastewater.

https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-tr ... ed-1497141

During the study period, the authors of the pre-print say there were nearly 450 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the area served by the water treatment facility, but the latest results suggest that this figure could be an underestimate, although more research is needed to verify this. While the team currently lack the data to provide an accurate figure for the number of people infected in the area, they estimate that it could be anywhere between 2,300 and 115,000—far higher than the official figure in both cases.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Banedon » Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:46 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:27 pm

Banedon wrote:

That shop owner has no concept of distance. Trubisky misses by 10 YARDS not feet
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:56 pm

So these Germans have been studying hundreds how it is actually transmitted from person to person and they are finding out that even though Covid might be on an item, it is essentially dead and isn’t capable of transmitting for longer lengths of time. It’s spread through large droplets of the virus.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-ge ... t-hit-spot

“Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles.

However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. "This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of 'dead' viruses," Streeck said.

According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it.

"After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out.

Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:17 pm

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

Wastewater study in Massachusetts confirms virus significantly more widespread than official accounts. But with a really wide margin, depending on their assumptions they come up with anywhere from 4x to 400x the official estimate of 0.026% infected for the week they were studying (March 18-25).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby stitchface » Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:55 pm

OleMissCub wrote:So these Germans have been studying hundreds how it is actually transmitted from person to person and they are finding out that even though Covid might be on an item, it is essentially dead and isn’t capable of transmitting for longer lengths of time. It’s spread through large droplets of the virus.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-ge ... t-hit-spot

“Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles.

However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. "This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of 'dead' viruses," Streeck said.

According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it.

"After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out.

Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."


Is it possible we develop anti-bodies from dead virus? This is how some vaccines work, no?
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