JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:jersey cubs fan wrote:JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Well, yes. But is that hill steeper than the hill in the other direction?
How likely is he to serve his full term? 70% 80%? If you say 80, then I can expect to lose 800 dollars on average.
And the house bet? If you think Nate Silver is a decent handicapper, then that's also 80%. I can expect to make 400 on average.
And Trump being relected? I mean...I can't see it being at all likely. 10% is generous, imo. So I can expect to make 450 on that.
Use a calculator to add all that up, and I have 50 doll hairs in the doll house at present.
I don't think 80% is accurate for the house, and I think he's got a much higher chance than 10% to win again.
Let's just say the Dems do win the house, then Trump will have 1.5 years of bitching about a democratic congress not letting him do anything, and this will actually be true. Conservatives will rally heavily against letting a Democrat take the White House while controlling congress. It's a long shot, but it's much higher than 10% chance.
So what numbers would you put on each event?
33% he wins in 2020.
60% democrats take back the House.
40% democrats take back the Senate.
You're counting on democrats to be organized and the votersto actually vote. Recent history is working against that.