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UK
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby UK » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:54 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Well, yes. But is that hill steeper than the hill in the other direction?
How likely is he to serve his full term? 70% 80%? If you say 80, then I can expect to lose 800 dollars on average.
And the house bet? If you think Nate Silver is a decent handicapper, then that's also 80%. I can expect to make 400 on average.
And Trump being relected? I mean...I can't see it being at all likely. 10% is generous, imo. So I can expect to make 450 on that.
Use a calculator to add all that up, and I have 50 doll hairs in the doll house at present.


I don't think 80% is accurate for the house, and I think he's got a much higher chance than 10% to win again.

Let's just say the Dems do win the house, then Trump will have 1.5 years of bitching about a democratic congress not letting him do anything, and this will actually be true. Conservatives will rally heavily against letting a Democrat take the White House while controlling congress. It's a long shot, but it's much higher than 10% chance.

So what numbers would you put on each event?


33% he wins in 2020.
60% democrats take back the House.
40% democrats take back the Senate.

You're counting on democrats to be organized and the votersto actually vote. Recent history is working against that.
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1) Make election day a federal holiday.
2) Enact National Popular Vote.

https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Sep 20, 2018 4:56 pm

UK wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
I don't think 80% is accurate for the house, and I think he's got a much higher chance than 10% to win again.

Let's just say the Dems do win the house, then Trump will have 1.5 years of bitching about a democratic congress not letting him do anything, and this will actually be true. Conservatives will rally heavily against letting a Democrat take the White House while controlling congress. It's a long shot, but it's much higher than 10% chance.

So what numbers would you put on each event?


33% he wins in 2020.
60% democrats take back the House.
40% democrats take back the Senate.

You're counting on democrats to be organized and the votersto actually vote. Recent history is working against that.

The Senate has nothing to do with my bets (apart from it having an effect on the liklihood Trump finishes his term) but thinking the house is only 60% and the senate is 40% is straight up bonkers.
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby cl smooth » Thu Sep 20, 2018 5:00 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
UK wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:So what numbers would you put on each event?


33% he wins in 2020.
60% democrats take back the House.
40% democrats take back the Senate.

You're counting on democrats to be organized and the votersto actually vote. Recent history is working against that.

The Senate has nothing to do with my bets (apart from it having an effect on the liklihood Trump finishes his term) but thinking the house is only 60% and the senate is 40% is straight up bonkers.


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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby UK » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:42 am

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/09/why-didnt-someone-call-the-fbi-36-years-ago-trump-insults-sexual-assault-survivor-dr-christine-blasey-ford-at-vegas-rally/

You knew he couldn't keep his mouth shut...

“I think is a sad situation, he is an outstanding person,” Trump said.



Trump continued, “Frankly, Sean, to see what is going on is very, very sad. Why didn’t somebody call the FBI 36 years ago? You could also say when did this all happen, what is going on? To take a man like this — with that being said, let her have her say and let’s see how it all works out.”
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1) Make election day a federal holiday.
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https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:09 am

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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby Regular Show » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:52 am

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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby wvcbxl » Fri Sep 21, 2018 9:04 am

UK wrote:BUILD THAT WALL!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/19/donald-trump-urged-spain-to-build-the-wall-across-the-sahara

Donald Trump suggested the Spanish government tackled the Mediterranean migration crisis by emulating one of his most famous policies and building a wall across the Sahara desert, the country’s foreign minister has revealed.

According to Josep Borrell, the US president brushed off the scepticism of Spanish diplomats – who pointed out that the Sahara stretched for 3,000 miles – saying: “The Sahara border can’t be bigger than our border with Mexico.”

Trump wooed voters in the 2016 election with his promise to build a “big, beautiful wall” across the US/Mexico border, which is roughly 2,000 miles long.


Technically, Spain only has about 20 miles of border on the African continent, around the enclaves of Cueta and Melilla. Both enclaves have a double, 4 meter high fence to protect that border.
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby TruffleShuffle » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:42 pm

it was just a matter of time, really.


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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby Derwood » Fri Sep 21, 2018 1:44 pm

Spoken truly like a man who does everything he can to hush his accusers when things happen so that he can use the excuse of "it's been a lot of years" to shame them later
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:25 pm

wvcbxl wrote:
UK wrote:BUILD THAT WALL!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/19/donald-trump-urged-spain-to-build-the-wall-across-the-sahara

Donald Trump suggested the Spanish government tackled the Mediterranean migration crisis by emulating one of his most famous policies and building a wall across the Sahara desert, the country’s foreign minister has revealed.

According to Josep Borrell, the US president brushed off the scepticism of Spanish diplomats – who pointed out that the Sahara stretched for 3,000 miles – saying: “The Sahara border can’t be bigger than our border with Mexico.”

Trump wooed voters in the 2016 election with his promise to build a “big, beautiful wall” across the US/Mexico border, which is roughly 2,000 miles long.


Technically, Spain only has about 20 miles of border on the African continent, around the enclaves of Cueta and Melilla. Both enclaves have a double, 4 meter high fence to protect that border.

what the horsefeathers is a meter?
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby jersey cubs fan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:27 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:
wvcbxl wrote:


Technically, Spain only has about 20 miles of border on the African continent, around the enclaves of Cueta and Melilla. Both enclaves have a double, 4 meter high fence to protect that border.

what the horsefeathers is a meter?

a character from the european version of cars?
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Sep 21, 2018 2:54 pm

wvcbxl wrote:
UK wrote:BUILD THAT WALL!

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/sep/19/donald-trump-urged-spain-to-build-the-wall-across-the-sahara

Donald Trump suggested the Spanish government tackled the Mediterranean migration crisis by emulating one of his most famous policies and building a wall across the Sahara desert, the country’s foreign minister has revealed.

According to Josep Borrell, the US president brushed off the scepticism of Spanish diplomats – who pointed out that the Sahara stretched for 3,000 miles – saying: “The Sahara border can’t be bigger than our border with Mexico.”

Trump wooed voters in the 2016 election with his promise to build a “big, beautiful wall” across the US/Mexico border, which is roughly 2,000 miles long.


Technically, Spain only has about 20 miles of border on the African continent, around the enclaves of Cueta and Melilla. Both enclaves have a double, 4 meter high fence to protect that border.


Congratulations; you have me THIS close to hating waffles.
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby CubinNY » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:44 pm

When is this nightmare going to end?
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:46 pm

When Tim stops outsourcing AMERICAN mod slots out to those dang foreigners. MAKE NSBB GREAT AGA-oh, wait; you were talking about something else.
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 3:53 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:When Tim stops outsourcing AMERICAN mod slots out to those dang foreigners. MAKE NSBB GREAT AGA-oh, wait; you were talking about something else.


This never would've happend under brinoch.
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:07 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
wvcbxl wrote:


Technically, Spain only has about 20 miles of border on the African continent, around the enclaves of Cueta and Melilla. Both enclaves have a double, 4 meter high fence to protect that border.


Congratulations; you have me THIS close to hating waffles.


leave waffles out of this you Philistine
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:20 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
wvcbxl wrote:
Technically, Spain only has about 20 miles of border on the African continent, around the enclaves of Cueta and Melilla. Both enclaves have a double, 4 meter high fence to protect that border.


Congratulations; you have me THIS close to hating waffles.


leave waffles out of this you Philistine


That, as they say, is the joke.
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:31 pm

what joke? I'm serious, leave delicious waffles out of it
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:37 pm

Joking about waffles is just a line you don't cross. Or as I like to say, "a wall in the Sahara you just don't cross"
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby Banedon » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:38 pm

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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby Brian707 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:39 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:it was just a matter of time, really.





horsefeathers YOU, Mr President*
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby squally1313 » Fri Sep 21, 2018 4:42 pm

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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby CubinNY » Fri Sep 21, 2018 5:08 pm

squally1313 wrote:Pretty much all of this, forever.

https://theconcourse.deadspin.com/brett ... 1829225731

Absorlutely
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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:08 pm

Just acknowledge that power has utterly corrupted the soft and willing target (a.k.a. Republican Party) & the vast majority of the power structure within it. No need to hew to the takes about how moral someone used to be.

As #nevertrump conservatives go, Schmidt has, IMO, been among the most consistent and least willing to play games of bothsidesism (sadly, unlike other #nevertrump'ers who simply cannot help but display their base partisanship), but when it's a friend who has been corrupted, kindly don't equivocate.


short thread:
Spoiler: show

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Re: Politics, but not weather or journalism or weather journalism

Postby CubinNY » Fri Sep 21, 2018 6:36 pm

A Trumper undoubtedly leaked a story to the NYT saying Rosenstein tried to envoke the 25th Amendment and offered to wear a wire when talking to Trump. The timing is uncanny. Rosenstein is, of course, denying the story. It's a pretext to fire him and a distraction from the stadium fire that is going on in DC meant to rile up the base.

Future historians are not going to be able to compare him to any other President. They will have to compare him to some of the late era Roman emperors like Nero or Caligula.
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