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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:22 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:28 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:...because for that to occur would basically require fraud be involved.


Losing the popular vote by almost 10 million and still managing an EC win is actually a realistic possibility. It's not tremendously likely, so you don't have to worry about anyone taking out some sweet, sweet bets, but it's hardly some kind of slam dunk that would trigger legal proceedings that would...somehow dismantle the EC, I guess?

(What is more scarily realistic is that he loses the PV by 3-5 million and still wins via the EC).

A 60/40 split would be a difference of around 25 million votes. 55/45 would be about 13 million. What kind of odds are you talking about when you say "realistic possibility?"


Losing the popular vote by almost 10 million and still managing an EC win is actually a realistic possibility.


I thought it was clear I was pointing out that there IS a significantly larger PV deficit he could pull off despite protestations that it shouldn't happen. The main point is that there is no inherent mechanism in place that would trigger the kind of legal oversight that would "break the whole system" you're very casually hand-waving. Granted, I took that to mean you were saying such a thing would be the tipping point that would effectively somehow do away with the EC because of the extreme results.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:30 pm

javy knows my name wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
javy knows my name wrote:
I don't think one can be too paranoid/careful about this. The Republicans are able to permit threats to our national security as long as it benefits them, and you know the Russians aren't gonna try the same horsefeathers they tried last time - they'll be smarter about it. At my doom-boneriest, I could conceive a 60/40 popular vote in favor of the dems and still have Trump winning the EC

If a 60/40 popular vote for the Dem candidate actually resulted in a Trump EC win, I think that would literally break the whole system. A large majority of the country would consider the election and the President illegitimate. The election would be decided by the courts. Even a 55/45 national total would do the trick.


I agree with every bit of this except for the implication that its illegitimacy would be enough to prevent a second Trump term. And it goes without saying that leaving it up to the courts is not the counter-balance on the executive that it used to be.

Well, in the scenario that a 60/40 resulted in a Trump win, it would be very very (very) likely that voting irregularities were involved. Painfully obvious ones. And I think those court cases would take place at the state level, which won't be stacked with Trump appointees, but point taken. I don't think anyone would have a good guess at what would ensue if something that bonkers happened, apart from the outcome also being bonkers.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:34 pm

It seems more likely that javy knows my name just didn't realize the actual numbers of a 60/40 split, and was just spitballing seeing Trump winning re-election despite a pretty damn big PV deficit. I doubt he honestly thought Trump could end up with 20-25 million fewer popular votes.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:35 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Losing the popular vote by almost 10 million and still managing an EC win is actually a realistic possibility. It's not tremendously likely, so you don't have to worry about anyone taking out some sweet, sweet bets, but it's hardly some kind of slam dunk that would trigger legal proceedings that would...somehow dismantle the EC, I guess?

(What is more scarily realistic is that he loses the PV by 3-5 million and still wins via the EC).

A 60/40 split would be a difference of around 25 million votes. 55/45 would be about 13 million. What kind of odds are you talking about when you say "realistic possibility?"


Losing the popular vote by almost 10 million and still managing an EC win is actually a realistic possibility.


I thought it was clear I was pointing out that there IS a significantly larger PV deficit he could pull off despite protestations that it shouldn't happen. The main point is that there is no inherent mechanism in place that would trigger the kind of legal oversight that would "break the whole system" you're very casually hand-waving. Granted, I took that to mean you were saying such a thing would be the tipping point that would effectively somehow do away with the EC because of the extreme results.

There is no inherant mechanism to deal with voter fraud? Please, pretty please, give me a number for the likelihood that Trump loses the national race by 10 million and still wins the electoral college. Then compare that probability with the chances that the results have been tampered with. Someone is hand waiving here, and it ain't me.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby javy knows my name » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:46 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:It seems more likely that javy knows my name just didn't realize the actual numbers of a 60/40 split, and was just spitballing seeing Trump winning re-election despite a pretty damn big PV deficit. I doubt he honestly thought Trump could end up with 20-25 million fewer popular votes.


Correct, I wasn't really considering what that would mean in terms of scale of voters. Just an exaggerated scenario where targeted election interference could GREATLY sway EC results instead of only sorta sway them like in 2016
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 25, 2019 7:51 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:There is no inherant mechanism to deal with voter fraud?


Very obviously not what I said:

The main point is that there is no inherent mechanism in place that would trigger the kind of legal oversight that would "break the whole system" you're very casually hand-waving. Granted, I took that to mean you were saying such a thing would be the tipping point that would effectively somehow do away with the EC because of the extreme results.


A legal challenge for voter fraud isn't going to somehow also be the process that also gets rid of the EC, which, again, correct me if I'm wrong, but that seemed to be what you were saying would happen if he won despite an insane, essentially impossible PV deficit.

Please, pretty please, give me a number for the likelihood that Trump loses the national race by 10 million and still wins the electoral college. Then compare that probability with the chances that the results have been tampered with. Someone is hand waiving here, and it ain't me.


I was, quite obviously, never arguing that it was likely to happen that he wins despite having 10 million less votes. You seemingly get hung up on the idea that people bringing these things up are expecting or wanting(?) them to happen. I was just pointing out that repeatedly scenarios have been shown where Trump could realistically lose the PV by as much as 5-10 million and still sneak out an EC win. My point, again, is that a large PV deficit doesn't automatically trigger some kind of legal challenge, and that Trump, unfortunately, could still win (and it's not the crazy fantasy you keep insisting it is) despite such a deficit.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:17 pm

FWIW, if any 2016 Trump states swing blue, it won't be Ohio. Doesn't feel like we participated in the blue wave of 2018, and the swing back from Obama to deep red state was swift. This state somehow prides itself on electing absolutely reprehensible people
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:23 pm

Derwood wrote:FWIW, if any 2016 Trump states swing blue, it won't be Ohio. Doesn't feel like we participated in the blue wave of 2018, and the swing back from Obama to deep red state was swift. This state somehow prides itself on electing absolutely reprehensible people


thats because its full of absolutely reprehensible people
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:36 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:There is no inherant mechanism to deal with voter fraud?


Very obviously not what I said:

The main point is that there is no inherent mechanism in place that would trigger the kind of legal oversight that would "break the whole system" you're very casually hand-waving. Granted, I took that to mean you were saying such a thing would be the tipping point that would effectively somehow do away with the EC because of the extreme results.


A legal challenge for voter fraud isn't going to somehow also be the process that also gets rid of the EC, which, again, correct me if I'm wrong, but that seemed to be what you were saying would happen if he won despite an insane, essentially impossible PV deficit.

Please, pretty please, give me a number for the likelihood that Trump loses the national race by 10 million and still wins the electoral college. Then compare that probability with the chances that the results have been tampered with. Someone is hand waiving here, and it ain't me.


I was, quite obviously, never arguing that it was likely to happen that he wins despite having 10 million less votes. You seemingly get hung up on the idea that people bringing these things up are expecting or wanting(?) them to happen. I was just pointing out that repeatedly scenarios have been shown where Trump could realistically lose the PV by as much as 5-10 million and still sneak out an EC win. My point, again, is that a large PV deficit doesn't automatically trigger some kind of legal challenge, and that Trump, unfortunately, could still win (and it's not the crazy fantasy you keep insisting it is) despite such a deficit.

Well yeah, if something insane were to happen that would cause elections to be questioned, then I think that would spur some major changes in the system not far down the road. Are you claiming otherwise? I'm well aware of the fact that there are no automatic triggers in the constitution that are set off by abundant absurdity. I never once claimed that the EC would automatically be done away with if Trump won by a literally unbelieveable inversion. You decided to make that what I said. In that crazy 60-40 inversion victory scenario, the legal argument wouldn't be "the EC sucks," it would be "dood, this election is fraudulent."
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:49 pm

Based on how he kicked off the discussion and your reply, it sounded like you were talking about how it would be the end of the EC system somehow. My bad if that wasn't your intention.

And no, I honestly don't think a fraud investigation would result in the state by state votes needed to overturn the EC, unfortunately. Republicans are too damn well aware of how well it works for them.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Nov 25, 2019 8:53 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
And no, I honestly don't think a fraud investigation would result in the state by state votes needed to overturn the EC, unfortunately. Republicans are too damn well aware of how well it works for them.

We aren't TOO far off from the interstate-pact making the EC irrelevant. If something THAT crazy happened, I think the pact would gain the traction it needs, and quickly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:00 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
And no, I honestly don't think a fraud investigation would result in the state by state votes needed to overturn the EC, unfortunately. Republicans are too damn well aware of how well it works for them.

We aren't TOO far off from the interstate-pact making the EC irrelevant. If something THAT crazy happened, I think the pact would gain the traction it needs, and quickly.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Popular_Vote_Interstate_Compact


Which is...murky, unfortunately, and that's being generous, IMO. Basically it would be a massive headache in and of itself, legally/Constitutionally-seeking, which would mean it would end up in front of the SC, which....doesn't seem like a good thing any time soon.

Personally, I think the best shot is pushing for DC and the territories to get statehood and then looking to amend the EC out of the Constitution.

Either way is going to take a long time. Were stuck with this dumb thing for the foreseeable future.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby The_Achiever » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:02 pm

I think it's obvious Trump is cruising to a bad loss in 2020, short of some miraculous cheating. His base is as rabid as ever but he's turned everyone else against him. The GOP is totally bought and controlled by Putin and that is obvious to anyone not drinking the kool aid.

However he still has more than a year to do damage that a Biden or Buttigieg (LOL) presidency won't repair. I've basically become Bernie or bust. I think he offers the best chance to beat Trump and start unpacking the damage.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:06 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby squally1313 » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:21 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:

ELI5, he asks, knowing he will most likely hate the answer.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby big ball chunky time » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:27 pm

what exactly has happened in the last 3 years that would make someone think trump is going to get rolled in 2020?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Bote McBoteface » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:29 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Derwood wrote:FWIW, if any 2016 Trump states swing blue, it won't be Ohio. Doesn't feel like we participated in the blue wave of 2018, and the swing back from Obama to deep red state was swift. This state somehow prides itself on electing absolutely reprehensible people


thats because its full of absolutely reprehensible people



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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:38 pm

squally1313 wrote:ELI5, he asks, knowing he will most likely hate the answer.

Generically, it basically means delegable powers (from Congress to agencies) are construed very narrowly; agencies will be gutted, as they lack power to formulate and enforce administrative rules/regs (some would argue this is going too far in analysis, and it actually "merely"means agency action is simply subject to judicial review, but I personally don't get this take at all). At the right wing extreme, obviously, it means severe contraction of governing via agency. Steve Bannon's wet dream ("destruction of the administrative state").
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:51 pm

Bote McBoteface wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Derwood wrote:FWIW, if any 2016 Trump states swing blue, it won't be Ohio. Doesn't feel like we participated in the blue wave of 2018, and the swing back from Obama to deep red state was swift. This state somehow prides itself on electing absolutely reprehensible people


thats because its full of absolutely reprehensible people



HEY!

...none of the good people could find work so we left. But we WERE there! Not our fault that our main export is crippling depression.


I only know 2 people from Ohio and neither impressed me (not you). Therefor I'm judging the entire sate on that, sample size be damned

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:54 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:what exactly has happened in the last 3 years that would make someone think trump is going to get rolled in 2020?

...the news?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby big ball chunky time » Mon Nov 25, 2019 9:58 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:what exactly has happened in the last 3 years that would make someone think trump is going to get rolled in 2020?

...the news?


oh yeah have you been reading it
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:03 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:what exactly has happened in the last 3 years that would make someone think trump is going to get rolled in 2020?

...the news?


oh yeah have you been reading it

Are we just playing a game where we ask each other dumb questions?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby big ball chunky time » Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:08 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:...the news?


oh yeah have you been reading it

Are we just playing a game where we ask each other dumb questions?


i understand that's your default mode of conversation, but no, we are not.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Nov 25, 2019 10:28 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:
oh yeah have you been reading it

Are we just playing a game where we ask each other dumb questions?


i understand that's your default mode of conversation, but no, we are not.

So your stance is that nothing has occurred over the past 3 years might change one's opinion, negatively, about Trump? I mean, even if you don't think any opinions have changed, you can imagine why some people might think that, right?
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