The Politics Thread

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:05 am

big ball chunky time wrote:He has a 90 percent approval rating among Rs and after three years of nonstop corruption, republican voters view HIM as the victim.



Honestly, this sentiment is extremely real.


The Rs want the end of the admin state, end to abortion. Thats not the popular vote, however, and my other fear here is that somehow someway, Trump gets voted out but refuses to leave office. Could he declare a state of emergency, martial law backed by a red senate. I don’t know the constitutional flow for that, but Trump is gonna Trump
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Tue Nov 26, 2019 1:55 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:



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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:18 pm

Lol, my congressman is tweeting out a Impeachment Thanksgiving guide for "the inevitable argument with your crazy uncle".



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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Tue Nov 26, 2019 2:44 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Derwood wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Everyone keeps bringing up 2016 (and ignoring anything that happened in the last 3 years). What do you all think happened in that election?


And you (still) fail to realize that any groundswell of anti-Trumpism over the past few years is completely erased by a few thousand votes in 3 or 4 states.

No.


Yes
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubinNY » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:17 pm

Derwood wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Derwood wrote:
And you (still) fail to realize that any groundswell of anti-Trumpism over the past few years is completely erased by a few thousand votes in 3 or 4 states.

No.


Yes

Your position is that these few thousand voters come down from outer space to vote and pop back up? The single deciding factor in November will be voter turnout. Trump has lost suburban women, college graduates, and basically anyone who made to an associate's degree in most of the nation. In the last election in Kentucky, the suburbs of Cincinnati are what doomed Bevin. That use to be Trump Country. If people come to the polls Trump will lose badly and so will the GOP.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/us/p ... ction.html
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:34 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Derwood wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:No.


Yes

Your position is that these few thousand voters come down from outer space to vote and pop back up? The single deciding factor in November will be voter turnout. Trump has lost suburban women, college graduates, and basically anyone who made to an associate's degree in most of the nation. In the last election in Kentucky, the suburbs of Cincinnati are what doomed Bevin. That use to be Trump Country. If people come to the polls Trump will lose badly and so will the GOP.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/11/06/us/p ... ction.html


Yes, voter turnout will be key. The question is, do the people show up to get rid of Trump if they're being fickle (again) about who ends up being the Dem candidate?

Also, I hope you're not insinuating that Kentucky voting for a Dem governor is in any way forecasting Kentucky going blue in 2020
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Nov 26, 2019 3:35 pm

I think the big X factor here is the possible disconnect between relative lack of enthusiasm for Generic GOP Candidate A-Z, even if endorsed by Trump or being a Trump buttlicker, and then the wholly singular and bizarre political entity that is Donald Trump: Inexplicable Line in the Sand for Republicans himself.

Ideally this isn't actually a thing, but I talked about before about how much it depresses me how Trump himself seems to be this insane "YOU SHALL NOT CROSS" figure for all walks of Republican politicians and voters. Like, they have zero problem ditching or not going nuts for seemingly any other Republican candidate, but Trump himself (or maybe just the presidency itself?) is seemingly seen as this thing that they're willing to back no matter what. Even the Republicans who don't like him, or claim to not like him, look at him as the best defense against the Democrats/the Left because they hate/fear the latter SO much more than they could ever dislike the former.
Last edited by Sammy Sofa on Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby The_Achiever » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:17 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:He has a 90 percent approval rating among Rs and after three years of nonstop corruption, republican voters view HIM as the victim.



Honestly, this sentiment is extremely real.


The Rs want the end of the admin state, end to abortion. Thats not the popular vote, however, and my other fear here is that somehow someway, Trump gets voted out but refuses to leave office. Could he declare a state of emergency, martial law backed by a red senate. I don’t know the constitutional flow for that, but Trump is gonna Trump


I think he'll try to do whatever he can to leave office but there are only so many levers to pull. Hell I think the Senate might decide he's not worth the trouble anyway and bounce his ass after impeachment. He's really putting them in a bad spot with their states' electorate anyway.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:24 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I think the big X factor here is the possibly disconnect between relative lack of enthusiasm for Generic GOP Candidate A-Z, even if endorsed by Trump or being a Trump buttlicker, and then the wholly singular and bizarre political entity that is Donald Trump: Inexplicable Line in the Sand for Republicans himself.

Ideally this isn't actually a thing, but I talked about before about how much it depresses me how Trump himself seems to be this insane "YOU SHALL NOT CROSS" figure for all walks of Republican politicians and voters. Like, they have zero problem ditching or not going nuts for seemingly any other Republican candidate, but Trump himself (or maybe just the presidency itself?) is seemingly seen as this thing that they're willing to back no matter what. Even the Republicans who don't like him, or claim to not like him, look at him as the best defense against the Democrats/the Left because they hate/fear the latter SO much more than they could ever dislike the former.

I think the X factor is which if any of the D candidates end up being some false equivalency "just as bad" choice for people again, like Hilary was. Obviously the GOP will try to demonize whoever wins the D nomination, I'm just not sure if any of the 4 frontrunners are more susceptible or not.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:36 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I think the big X factor here is the possibly disconnect between relative lack of enthusiasm for Generic GOP Candidate A-Z, even if endorsed by Trump or being a Trump buttlicker, and then the wholly singular and bizarre political entity that is Donald Trump: Inexplicable Line in the Sand for Republicans himself.

Ideally this isn't actually a thing, but I talked about before about how much it depresses me how Trump himself seems to be this insane "YOU SHALL NOT CROSS" figure for all walks of Republican politicians and voters. Like, they have zero problem ditching or not going nuts for seemingly any other Republican candidate, but Trump himself (or maybe just the presidency itself?) is seemingly seen as this thing that they're willing to back no matter what. Even the Republicans who don't like him, or claim to not like him, look at him as the best defense against the Democrats/the Left because they hate/fear the latter SO much more than they could ever dislike the former.

I think the X factor is which if any of the D candidates end up being some false equivalency "just as bad" choice for people again, like Hilary was. Obviously the GOP will try to demonize whoever wins the D nomination, I'm just not sure if any of the 4 frontrunners are more susceptible or not.


I was talking in terms of Republicans voting for/supporting Trump through the lens of assuming that Republican losses speak to how poorly he'll do in 2020. Other Republican politicians are generally pretty unpopular even among Republican voters; Trump is the outlier in how he has maintained a ridiculously high level of support on the Right. They seem to look at him as some kind of Last Stand against the Left.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby big ball chunky time » Tue Nov 26, 2019 4:42 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I think the big X factor here is the possibly disconnect between relative lack of enthusiasm for Generic GOP Candidate A-Z, even if endorsed by Trump or being a Trump buttlicker, and then the wholly singular and bizarre political entity that is Donald Trump: Inexplicable Line in the Sand for Republicans himself.

Ideally this isn't actually a thing, but I talked about before about how much it depresses me how Trump himself seems to be this insane "YOU SHALL NOT CROSS" figure for all walks of Republican politicians and voters. Like, they have zero problem ditching or not going nuts for seemingly any other Republican candidate, but Trump himself (or maybe just the presidency itself?) is seemingly seen as this thing that they're willing to back no matter what. Even the Republicans who don't like him, or claim to not like him, look at him as the best defense against the Democrats/the Left because they hate/fear the latter SO much more than they could ever dislike the former.

I think the X factor is which if any of the D candidates end up being some false equivalency "just as bad" choice for people again, like Hilary was. Obviously the GOP will try to demonize whoever wins the D nomination, I'm just not sure if any of the 4 frontrunners are more susceptible or not.


I don't see "the left" uniting behind any of the democratic candidates. Obama takes a lot of earned gruff but the one thing he got right was that he was able to mold his image to bring different groups of liberals together. It was really only after he left office and Trump moved in that liberals started to splinter on their opinions of him.

Of the candidates, here's what we have

Booker and Buttigieg - phonies
Kamala - cop, woman
Bernie - old, socialist and bernie bros
Warren - woman, the native ancestry problem, socialist also old
Biden - Biden

No matter who out of that group makes it, the only hope that Dems as a whole will support them en masse is if Trump does something so egregious in the next 12 months (certainly a possibility) that everyone goes ok we gotta get this guy outta here above all else. And then what you're left with is a one-term president who gets replaced in 2024 with Ivanka or whatever Trump kid runs.

Trump unites the right because he gives every conservative something they want. There are an absurd amount of republicans who only care about abortion and eliminating it. Guess who just put them like one SC judge away from pulling that off? You think they're going to stay home and let Joe Biden be president just because Trump did a little quid pro quo? hell no.

"Sure I don't like the way he conducts himself, but he's building a wall and making mexico pay for it! He's not going to let us get horsefeathers free healthcare like canada or one of those other socialist nations like Venezuela! can't let a dem get in here and screw up that progress we've made."
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Nov 26, 2019 5:15 pm

Yeah, I would be equally unsurprised if Democratic voters are motivated to surge and kick ass in 2020...or if they fell back into their default splintered way because of the muddled, uninspiring crop of candidates, none of who have managed a comprehensive message beyond "replace Trump!" As much as that SHOULD be enough, it remains to be seen if it actually is.

The state and local elections rarely encounter the type of internal tribalism we see consume the Democrats on the national scope, so I think it's a mistake to assume those trends point to a slam dunk in the presidential election. The Democrats, for better or for worse, need to vote as lockstep as the GOP voters do when it comes to the president, and even under the current circumstances that's questionable as to how it will play out.

Look at it this way: the most reliable voting bloc the Democrats have are women of color, and right now the candidate that has the best shot of being the nominee that even remotely appeals to those groups is Joe horsefeathering Biden. Let that sink in.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby big ball chunky time » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:02 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
CubinNY wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:He has a 90 percent approval rating among Rs and after three years of nonstop corruption, republican voters view HIM as the victim.

On the other hand, the Rs are shrinking as a voting bloc and their hold on the suburbs is over. They have one path to victory, voter suppression/low turn out. I expect by November that path to victory will be so narrow as to be nonexistent. I worry tremendously that Trump will simply refuse to leave office.

Exactly. Anyone that still identifies as "Republican" at this point, well, I'd be surprised if they didn't view Trump as a victim. There are just fewer Republicans.


30 percent of americans ID as republicans today, up 3% from election day 2016
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:02 pm

The fact that none of the Dem candidates can even get to 25% in the polls should be very worrying. The tribalism within the democratic base is strong and kicking, and there is no guarantee that staunch centrists currently backing Biden/Pete will automatically vote for Sanders it Warren, regardless of how awful Trump is.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:32 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Nov 26, 2019 6:40 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:


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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:00 pm

Men are the worst.

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:04 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
CubinNY wrote:On the other hand, the Rs are shrinking as a voting bloc and their hold on the suburbs is over. They have one path to victory, voter suppression/low turn out. I expect by November that path to victory will be so narrow as to be nonexistent. I worry tremendously that Trump will simply refuse to leave office.

Exactly. Anyone that still identifies as "Republican" at this point, well, I'd be surprised if they didn't view Trump as a victim. There are just fewer Republicans.


30 percent of americans ID as republicans today, up 3% from election day 2016

As of September 2019, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 29% identified as Republican, and 38% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 49% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 44% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:05 pm

Derwood wrote:The fact that none of the Dem candidates can even get to 25% in the polls should be very worrying. The tribalism within the democratic base is strong and kicking, and there is no guarantee that staunch centrists currently backing Biden/Pete will automatically vote for Sanders it Warren, regardless of how awful Trump is.

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:23 pm

Derwood wrote:The fact that none of the Dem candidates can even get to 25% in the polls should be very worrying. The tribalism within the democratic base is strong and kicking, and there is no guarantee that staunch centrists currently backing Biden/Pete will automatically vote for Sanders it Warren, regardless of how awful Trump is.


Some of your concerns are valid. This one is not.

In November 2015...

Trump gets 24 percent of Republican votes, with Carson at 23 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 14 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 13 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 9 percent undecided, and 63 percent who might change their mind.


In November 2011...

Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain leads the Republican presidential primary field with 30 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 23 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 10 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 8 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. No other candidate tops 7 percent.


In November 2007...

Hillary Clinton 48%
Barack Obama 17%
John Edwards 10%

Rudy Giuliani 30%
John McCain 17%
Mitt Romney 13%


So Trump didn't have 25% in the polls at this point. The only person that did in 2011 was Herman freaking Cain, and the only people that did in 2007 lost the nomination.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby big ball chunky time » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:23 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Exactly. Anyone that still identifies as "Republican" at this point, well, I'd be surprised if they didn't view Trump as a victim. There are just fewer Republicans.


30 percent of americans ID as republicans today, up 3% from election day 2016

As of September 2019, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 29% identified as Republican, and 38% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 49% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 44% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states


what do you think this says? the majority of the country IDs as democrat for some very obvious reasons. The point remains that there are not "fewer republicans" now than there were were in 2016.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:33 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:43 pm

big ball chunky time wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:
30 percent of americans ID as republicans today, up 3% from election day 2016

As of September 2019, Gallup polling found that 31% of Americans identified as Democrat, 29% identified as Republican, and 38% as Independent.[3] Additionally, polling showed that 49% are either "Democrats or Democratic leaners" and 44% are either "Republicans or Republican leaners" when Independents are asked "do you lean more to the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?"[3]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_party_strength_in_U.S._states


what do you think this says? the majority of the country IDs as democrat for some very obvious reasons. The point remains that there are not "fewer republicans" now than there were were in 2016.

2016 is your chosen starting point.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/part ... ation.aspx

https://www.people-press.org/2019/03/14 ... hey-think/

There are less identifying Republicans over the last decade. And there are less Republican-leaners in the independents. The moderate Repub voters don't like the label. So of course Trump has a high approval among Republicans (which is actually only around 85%). All that are left are the rabid loons.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby big ball chunky time » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:49 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
big ball chunky time wrote:


what do you think this says? the majority of the country IDs as democrat for some very obvious reasons. The point remains that there are not "fewer republicans" now than there were were in 2016.

2016 is your chosen starting point.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/15370/part ... ation.aspx

https://www.people-press.org/2019/03/14 ... hey-think/

There are less identifying Republicans over the last decade. And there are less Republican-leaners in the independents. The moderate Repub voters don't like the label. So of course Trump has a high approval among Republicans (which is actually only around 85%). All that are left are the rabid loons.


that's absurdly wrong. you're literally just wishcasting.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Tue Nov 26, 2019 7:51 pm

Banedon wrote:
Derwood wrote:The fact that none of the Dem candidates can even get to 25% in the polls should be very worrying. The tribalism within the democratic base is strong and kicking, and there is no guarantee that staunch centrists currently backing Biden/Pete will automatically vote for Sanders it Warren, regardless of how awful Trump is.


Some of your concerns are valid. This one is not.

In November 2015...

Trump gets 24 percent of Republican votes, with Carson at 23 percent, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida at 14 percent, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas at 13 percent, and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 4 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll finds. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 9 percent undecided, and 63 percent who might change their mind.


In November 2011...

Former Godfather's Pizza CEO Herman Cain leads the Republican presidential primary field with 30 percent, followed by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney with 23 percent, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich with 10 percent and Texas Gov. Rick Perry with 8 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. No other candidate tops 7 percent.


In November 2007...

Hillary Clinton 48%
Barack Obama 17%
John Edwards 10%

Rudy Giuliani 30%
John McCain 17%
Mitt Romney 13%


So Trump didn't have 25% in the polls at this point. The only person that did in 2011 was Herman freaking Cain, and the only people that did in 2007 lost the nomination.


Correct, though the major difference here is that the GOP voter will always fall in line behind the eventual candidate, while Democrat voters will litmus test themselves to death and petulantly stay home when their favorite candidate isn't on the ticket
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