Politics & Current Events

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby David » Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:33 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:If you guys are mad now, wait until you find out that Trump comes out of the entire pandemic with a political tie at worst because the worst-case scenarios that needed to be broadcast to force him to react also give him an extremely easy bar to pass under and declare victory.


Yup.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby gflore34 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:46 pm

The Logan wrote:I'm at a loss for words at just how brazen he's been with being so open and obvious about how he literally doesn't give a horsefeathers about anything or anyone.


The flip side to this is likewise, no one gives a horsefeathers about him, thus far, his support is product of self-serving interests. When day comes that supporting him is no longer beneficial, no one's going to lift a finger to save him, he's done. Hopefully, that day comes soon, before he can inflict more damage.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubinNY » Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:31 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:If you guys are mad now, wait until you find out that Trump comes out of the entire pandemic with a political tie at worst because the worst-case scenarios that needed to be broadcast to force him to react also give him an extremely easy bar to pass under and declare victory.

It's going to be very bad in rural America due to the simple fact that they have listened to him are just now being visited by the virus. With lower population densities the numbers won't be huge but the fractional numbers in smaller communities will be. A small church in Auburn who continued to have services had over half the congregation come down with the virus. I expect that will be a trend as we move forward.

I honestly do not see any way he can win. He's already lost the suburbs.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby gflore34 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:50 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:If you guys are mad now, wait until you find out that Trump comes out of the entire pandemic with a political tie at worst because the worst-case scenarios that needed to be broadcast to force him to react also give him an extremely easy bar to pass under and declare victory.

It's going to be very bad in rural America due to the simple fact that they have listened to him are just now being visited by the virus. With lower population densities the numbers won't be huge but the fractional numbers in smaller communities will be. A small church in Auburn who continued to have services had over half the congregation come down with the virus. I expect that will be a trend as we move forward.

I honestly do not see any way he can win. He's already lost the suburbs.


The numbers do not lie, just looked at COVID-19 site, US accounts for nearly 30% of cases world wide whereas, India with a population 4 times that of the US and much less square mileage has 5749, how can one not say this Administration completely and wholly horsefeathers it ip?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby David » Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:58 pm

gflore34 wrote:
CubinNY wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:If you guys are mad now, wait until you find out that Trump comes out of the entire pandemic with a political tie at worst because the worst-case scenarios that needed to be broadcast to force him to react also give him an extremely easy bar to pass under and declare victory.

It's going to be very bad in rural America due to the simple fact that they have listened to him are just now being visited by the virus. With lower population densities the numbers won't be huge but the fractional numbers in smaller communities will be. A small church in Auburn who continued to have services had over half the congregation come down with the virus. I expect that will be a trend as we move forward.

I honestly do not see any way he can win. He's already lost the suburbs.


The numbers do not lie, just looked at COVID-19 site, US accounts for nearly 30% of cases world wide whereas, India with a population 4 times that of the US and much less square mileage has 5749, how can one not say this Administration completely and wholly horsefeathers it ip?


The US has run 5.8 tests per 1000 people, 3rd highest in the world on a per capita basis, after Italy and South Korea.

India has run .07 per 1000 people.


https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing



https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... di/608896/ - This piece is about a week and a half old



Health workers complain they do not have sufficient protective gear, forcing them to make do with raincoats and motorbike helmets. #DoctorsNeedGear has been one of the trending topics on Twitter in India. Hospitals have been under strain even though the number of cases in India—5,000 so far and increasing rapidly—is still low for a country of its size. (The low figure is likely a reflection of India’s inability to test more people. As of Mar. 30, it was testing 26 people in a million compared with Taiwan’s 1,273 and South Korea’s 7,638.)


https://time.com/5816029/coronavirus-co ... odi-india/
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby gflore34 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:06 pm

David wrote:
gflore34 wrote:
CubinNY wrote:It's going to be very bad in rural America due to the simple fact that they have listened to him are just now being visited by the virus. With lower population densities the numbers won't be huge but the fractional numbers in smaller communities will be. A small church in Auburn who continued to have services had over half the congregation come down with the virus. I expect that will be a trend as we move forward.

I honestly do not see any way he can win. He's already lost the suburbs.


The numbers do not lie, just looked at COVID-19 site, US accounts for nearly 30% of cases world wide whereas, India with a population 4 times that of the US and much less square mileage has 5749, how can one not say this Administration completely and wholly horsefeathers it ip?


The US has run 5.8 tests per 1000 people, 3rd highest in the world on a per capita basis, after Italy and South Korea.

India has run .07 per 1000 people.


https://ourworldindata.org/covid-testing



https://www.theatlantic.com/internation ... di/608896/ - This piece is about a week and a half old



Health workers complain they do not have sufficient protective gear, forcing them to make do with raincoats and motorbike helmets. #DoctorsNeedGear has been one of the trending topics on Twitter in India. Hospitals have been under strain even though the number of cases in India—5,000 so far and increasing rapidly—is still low for a country of its size. (The low figure is likely a reflection of India’s inability to test more people. As of Mar. 30, it was testing 26 people in a million compared with Taiwan’s 1,273 and South Korea’s 7,638.)


https://time.com/5816029/coronavirus-co ... odi-india/


I knew it'd be a function of the tests wonder if there's a way to extrapolate infection rate? Very simplistic and not so exact interpretation of the numbers on my part.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:10 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:If you guys are mad now, wait until you find out that Trump comes out of the entire pandemic with a political tie at worst because the worst-case scenarios that needed to be broadcast to force him to react also give him an extremely easy bar to pass under and declare victory.

It's going to be very bad in rural America due to the simple fact that they have listened to him are just now being visited by the virus. With lower population densities the numbers won't be huge but the fractional numbers in smaller communities will be. A small church in Auburn who continued to have services had over half the congregation come down with the virus. I expect that will be a trend as we move forward.

I honestly do not see any way he can win. He's already lost the suburbs.


Just wait to see how many cases there will be when 'Bama decides to squeeze 100,000 people into Bryant-Denny in September
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:48 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:If you guys are mad now, wait until you find out that Trump comes out of the entire pandemic with a political tie at worst because the worst-case scenarios that needed to be broadcast to force him to react also give him an extremely easy bar to pass under and declare victory.

It's going to be very bad in rural America due to the simple fact that they have listened to him are just now being visited by the virus. With lower population densities the numbers won't be huge but the fractional numbers in smaller communities will be. A small church in Auburn who continued to have services had over half the congregation come down with the virus. I expect that will be a trend as we move forward.

I honestly do not see any way he can win. He's already lost the suburbs.


Trump supporters have a warped mind that can only look at things through Trump colored lenses. The logic they will follow is:

-The outbreak was inevitable
-Trump stopped travel from China early proving he was taking steps to prevent the outbreak
-When the outbreak occurred, Trump was doing things like trying to push untested drugs through all the red tape to make it available to the people, among various other things that he did.
-Trump understood the balance of fighting this pandemic and the economy, pushed for a stimulus, tried to be cautiously aggressive in reopening the country
-The outbreak is over, he saved us! (in November when hopefully the numbers have dropped dramatically)

They will ignore all the evidence you throw at them that prove Trump did an awful job and caused thousands of unnecessary deaths with his reckless rhetoric and inaction.

I think you underestimate how wrapped around Trump's finger these people are. They will distort truth however they want to fit into the narrative they choose to believe. Almost anything that's negative about Trump is 'fake news', etc. He's crafted a well oiled machine of supporters, probably by accident, but powerful none-the-less.

Now I agree there are swing voters who see through Trump's BS and those swing voters may decide the election. Hopefully enough of them can see the light before November. But it's not going to be because a strong Democratic candidate won them over, it will only be because they believe Trump failed them.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:58 pm

And now we have an incoherent, babbling old man as the candidate who needs to lay out Trump's faults through this crisis
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubinNY » Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:39 pm

UMFan83 wrote:
CubinNY wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:If you guys are mad now, wait until you find out that Trump comes out of the entire pandemic with a political tie at worst because the worst-case scenarios that needed to be broadcast to force him to react also give him an extremely easy bar to pass under and declare victory.

It's going to be very bad in rural America due to the simple fact that they have listened to him are just now being visited by the virus. With lower population densities the numbers won't be huge but the fractional numbers in smaller communities will be. A small church in Auburn who continued to have services had over half the congregation come down with the virus. I expect that will be a trend as we move forward.

I honestly do not see any way he can win. He's already lost the suburbs.


Trump supporters have a warped mind that can only look at things through Trump colored lenses. The logic they will follow is:

-The outbreak was inevitable
-Trump stopped travel from China early proving he was taking steps to prevent the outbreak
-When the outbreak occurred, Trump was doing things like trying to push untested drugs through all the red tape to make it available to the people, among various other things that he did.
-Trump understood the balance of fighting this pandemic and the economy, pushed for a stimulus, tried to be cautiously aggressive in reopening the country
-The outbreak is over, he saved us! (in November when hopefully the numbers have dropped dramatically)

They will ignore all the evidence you throw at them that prove Trump did an awful job and caused thousands of unnecessary deaths with his reckless rhetoric and inaction.

I think you underestimate how wrapped around Trump's finger these people are. They will distort truth however they want to fit into the narrative they choose to believe. Almost anything that's negative about Trump is 'fake news', etc. He's crafted a well oiled machine of supporters, probably by accident, but powerful none-the-less.

Now I agree there are swing voters who see through Trump's BS and those swing voters may decide the election. Hopefully enough of them can see the light before November. But it's not going to be because a strong Democratic candidate won them over, it will only be because they believe Trump failed them.

Agree, but that is not a majority of the electorate. He has 62% of the White non-college educated population. That is it. That is not enough people to get him elected. He isn't running against Clinton and he won last time by the slimmest of margins.

Trump's only shot is to somehow suppress the vote enough in enough "battleground" states to have a shot. It could happen, but it is very highly unlikely.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Cubfanintheknow » Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:50 am

Derwood wrote:And now we have an incoherent, babbling old man as the candidate who needs to lay out Trump's faults through this crisis


The quarantine is keeping Biden alive. He's not having to keep pace with a grueling travel schedule. And his handlers will be able to control him a little better with the lack of public appearances.

He'll get elected, but won't make it a full year into his presidency.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Brian707 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:35 am

Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:10 am

Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

I disagree. Hard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby MWV » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:00 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

I disagree. Hard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

Yep. Trump is on TV everyday declaring himself a "wartime president", saying essentially whatever he likes, mostly unchecked, to a national audience. Meanwhile, Biden is sitting at home playing Catan with his advisors, manifesting every few days to say something weird. And still Biden is up by 6-8 points.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:41 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

I disagree. Hard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/


At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:51 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

I disagree. Hard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/


At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.


I think the election will be embarrassingly close, but there are some mitigating factors here. Cruz and Kasich were still in the race while their supporters were still pretending they'd never vote for Trump. Trump has the incumbent advantage. Trump has a disaster going on at the moment which helps an incumbent no matter how much they horsefeathers it up.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:55 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:


At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.


I think the election will be embarrassingly close, but there are some mitigating factors here. Cruz and Kasich were still in the race while their supporters were still pretending they'd never vote for Trump. Trump has the incumbent advantage. Trump has a disaster going on at the moment which helps an incumbent no matter how much they horsefeathers it up.


i figure Republicans are gonna Republican no matter what and Trump is gonna get his 62 million votes. Whether or not that's a winner depends on Democratic enthusiasm and how much horsefeathers Republicans can get away with, which I expect to be a lot more than they even normally try.

A lot depends on Biden managing to coast on his reputation, because the man is a mess but people still see him as Obama's cool VP.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:00 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

I disagree. Hard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/


At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.

So that means Trump is likely to win? An unlikely thing happened last election. It doesn't mean that a similarly unlikely thing will happen again.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:04 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

I disagree. Hard.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/


At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.


and teams sometimes come back from down 3-1 in a playoff series, even the world series, in fact (people forget that), but that doesn't mean we should expect it more often just because we see it sometimes.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby gflore34 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:05 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.


I think the election will be embarrassingly close, but there are some mitigating factors here. Cruz and Kasich were still in the race while their supporters were still pretending they'd never vote for Trump. Trump has the incumbent advantage. Trump has a disaster going on at the moment which helps an incumbent no matter how much they horsefeathers it up.


i figure Republicans are gonna Republican no matter what and Trump is gonna get his 62 million votes. Whether or not that's a winner depends on Democratic enthusiasm and how much horsefeathers Republicans can get away with, which I expect to be a lot more than they even normally try.

A lot depends on Biden managing to coast on his reputation, because the man is a mess but people still see him as Obama's cool VP.


I believe there's a great motivation to vote in the upcoming election, people are not going to stay home ala 2016. If people do get out and vote he's done, the GOP knows this and will try to suppress voting in every manner. In a fair election Trump' going to get buried, we might see a victory margin of historical proportions.
Last edited by gflore34 on Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby gflore34 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:13 pm

Nice

Surprised? Shocked? Put this in front of those MAGA-Billies, they'll rationalize it as a good outcome.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:29 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:


At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.

So that means Trump is likely to win? An unlikely thing happened last election. It doesn't mean that a similarly unlikely thing will happen again.

I know some like to argue against this point, but Hillary was a uniquely unpopular candidate in 2016, which showed itself again in the 2020 primary race. Bernie's share of the vote actually shrank this cycle, which I'd argue shows that a portion of his support in 2016 was more anti-Hillary than pro-Bernie, and that showed itself again in the 2016 general election. Couple that with the feeling many had that Trump had no chance of winning last time so there wasn't the urgency for voters to have to show up at the polls, hold their noses and go vote Hillary.

Completely anecdotal, but I was listening to my neighbor talk politics on his porch the other night, a mid 40's white factory worker. He voted for Trump in 2016 because he hated Hillary and wanted someone "to go in there and horsefeathers things up" in Washington. He thinks Trump completely screwed up this crisis but really likes Gov. Cuomo. Many (or enough) of these voters weren't Republicans voting Republican, but they stupidly thought Trump was going to be the answer to the politics as usual BS. They're either not showing up or voting Biden this time around. I know it's one guy on my block but I have to think he is indicative of lots of voters our there.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:39 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:


At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.

So that means Trump is likely to win? An unlikely thing happened last election. It doesn't mean that a similarly unlikely thing will happen again.


I'm saying that the correlation between April polling leads and November results may not be strong enough to warrant confidence.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:33 pm

So, what’s the Vegas line on how many days before Sanders endorses Biden?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:04 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
At a comparable date in 2016, Clinton was pulling +10s routinely.

So that means Trump is likely to win? An unlikely thing happened last election. It doesn't mean that a similarly unlikely thing will happen again.


I'm saying that the correlation between April polling leads and November results may not be strong enough to warrant confidence.

Confidence is one thing, but saying that Trump is the favorite right now is another thing altogether.
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