Politics & Current Events

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 71799
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 1392
x 2968

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:12 pm

If I remember correctly, Trump wasn’t ever the front runner until he actually won
0 x

User avatar
WrigleyField 22
Superstar
Posts: 13684
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:48 pm
Location: hnderstabxcwhsg
x 2165
x 1307

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:23 pm

I think it's fair to say Biden is the frontrunner and frontrunner status in April is fairly suspect as to its meaningfulness and predictive value for November.
0 x
Image

stitchface
Superstar
Posts: 12161
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 3:28 am
Location: On a levee somewhere
x 23
x 103

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby stitchface » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:28 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:I think it's fair to say Biden is the frontrunner and frontrunner status in April is fairly suspect as to its meaningfulness and predictive value for November.



frankly, it comes down to a handful of states. It's irrelevant how far ahead or behind a candidate is in many of the states that are not in play.
0 x

User avatar
WrigleyField 22
Superstar
Posts: 13684
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:48 pm
Location: hnderstabxcwhsg
x 2165
x 1307

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:33 pm

stitchface wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:I think it's fair to say Biden is the frontrunner and frontrunner status in April is fairly suspect as to its meaningfulness and predictive value for November.



frankly, it comes down to a handful of states. It's irrelevant how far ahead or behind a candidate is in many of the states that are not in play.

Yes, but lacking sufficient state level polling I think we can work with some broader demographic assumptions and allude to frontrunner status based on a 3+ average polling advantage.
0 x
Image

User avatar
CoolHandLuke
All-Star
Posts: 4242
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 8:48 pm
Location: Mount Prospect
x 56
x 193

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CoolHandLuke » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:39 pm

These national polls don't take into account where the votes are coming from, right? Hillary was up 2 points in 2016. I think statewide polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, etc, are a lot more important to look at when deciding on your confidence level.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

This state level approval data is pretty comforting. Michigan and Wisconsin look like pretty safe bets to flip back to dem. And then Biden would only need to win one of the close ones (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) to wrap up a victory.
0 x

User avatar
David
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 62191
Joined: Thu Nov 13, 2003 12:33 am
Location: Chicago
x 9692
x 5670

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:43 pm

CoolHandLuke wrote:These national polls don't take into account where the votes are coming from, right? Hillary was up 2 points in 2016. I think statewide polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, etc, are a lot more important to look at when deciding on your confidence level.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

This state level approval data is pretty comforting. Michigan and Wisconsin look like pretty safe bets to flip back to dem. And then Biden would only need to win one of the close ones (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) to wrap up a victory.


https://www.nbcnews.com/specials/road-to-270-2020/

https://www.270towin.com/maps/consensus ... p-forecast

i think these update states based on polling (because i've seen states shift throughout this whole thing) but i'm not entirely sure how or what it's based on when they do change
0 x

stitchface
Superstar
Posts: 12161
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 3:28 am
Location: On a levee somewhere
x 23
x 103

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby stitchface » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:45 pm

CoolHandLuke wrote:These national polls don't take into account where the votes are coming from, right? Hillary was up 2 points in 2016. I think statewide polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, etc, are a lot more important to look at when deciding on your confidence level.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

This state level approval data is pretty comforting. Michigan and Wisconsin look like pretty safe bets to flip back to dem. And then Biden would only need to win one of the close ones (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) to wrap up a victory.



sounds very much like where Hillary was . . .
0 x

User avatar
CoolHandLuke
All-Star
Posts: 4242
Joined: Tue Sep 28, 2004 8:48 pm
Location: Mount Prospect
x 56
x 193

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CoolHandLuke » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:49 pm

Please stop making me feel bad by pointing out things like that!
0 x

CubinNY
Hall of Fame
Posts: 23259
Joined: Fri Jul 09, 2004 5:52 pm
Location: Pike Road, Al
x 364
x 743

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubinNY » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:54 pm

Derwood wrote:If I remember correctly, Trump wasn’t ever the front runner until he actually won

You don't even do doom boner very well.
1 x

User avatar
sneakypower
Javy Baez Fanclub President
Posts: 12041
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:58 am
Location: behind the boathouse
x 724
x 1323

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby sneakypower » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:55 pm

Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

shoo-in

so uh who runs in '24? ...Andrew Cuomo vs. Pence?
0 x

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45671
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 5:02 pm
Location: Naperville, IL
x 82
x 2741
Contact:

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Tim » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:57 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

shoo-in

so uh who runs in '24? ...Andrew Cuomo vs. Pence?

AOC and Don Jr.
0 x
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 71799
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 1392
x 2968

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:59 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Derwood wrote:If I remember correctly, Trump wasn’t ever the front runner until he actually won

You don't even do doom boner very well.


Cool......what?
0 x

User avatar
sneakypower
Javy Baez Fanclub President
Posts: 12041
Joined: Tue Dec 04, 2007 12:58 am
Location: behind the boathouse
x 724
x 1323

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby sneakypower » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:01 pm

Tim wrote:
sneakypower wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

shoo-in

so uh who runs in '24? ...Andrew Cuomo vs. Pence?

AOC and Don Jr.

still too young and the party kinda hates her ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
0 x

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45671
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 5:02 pm
Location: Naperville, IL
x 82
x 2741
Contact:

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Tim » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:08 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Tim wrote:
sneakypower wrote:shoo-in

so uh who runs in '24? ...Andrew Cuomo vs. Pence?

AOC and Don Jr.

still too young and the party kinda hates her ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Google it. She'll qualify.

Unlike Bernie, she is actually working to make nice in the party.
2 x
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Tim
Hall of Fame
Posts: 45671
Joined: Fri Feb 28, 2003 5:02 pm
Location: Naperville, IL
x 82
x 2741
Contact:

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Tim » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:09 pm

Unless you mean that she won't get votes because she's too young. In which case, yeah.
0 x
Spoiler: show

Image

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 71799
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 1392
x 2968

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:11 pm

She’s a young non-white woman with opinions, so you’d best believe that the country will rally to make sure she never sniffs the White House
0 x

stitchface
Superstar
Posts: 12161
Joined: Thu Jun 26, 2003 3:28 am
Location: On a levee somewhere
x 23
x 103

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby stitchface » Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:49 pm

sneakypower wrote:
Brian707 wrote:Trump as of now is better than a coin flip to win the election. I wish i shared some of your optimism

shoo-in

so uh who runs in '24? ...Andrew Cuomo vs. Pence?



Gavin Newsom?
0 x

User avatar
CyHawk_Cub
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9099
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2007 9:24 pm
x 380
x 3453

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Apr 09, 2020 8:09 pm

0 x

User avatar
snoodmonger
Superstar
Posts: 12059
Joined: Thu Jul 15, 2004 4:53 am
Location: LA
x 258
x 365
Contact:

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby snoodmonger » Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:26 pm

CoolHandLuke wrote:These national polls don't take into account where the votes are coming from, right? Hillary was up 2 points in 2016. I think statewide polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, etc, are a lot more important to look at when deciding on your confidence level.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

This state level approval data is pretty comforting. Michigan and Wisconsin look like pretty safe bets to flip back to dem. And then Biden would only need to win one of the close ones (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) to wrap up a victory.


I think Republicans could be in a lot of trouble in Florida if the unemployment thing down there is not fixed. They've worked hard for a long time to make it difficult to apply for and qualify for unemployment, and you get a pittance even if you do. (I think the max weekly amount is sub-$300.) This was a pet project of Republicans and Rick Scott. A lot of people didn't care because it didn't affect them. Now, of course, lots of people suddenly need it. And they either can't get it because of enrollment fiascos or they're finding out that the benefits are barely useful. In a normal world, all that might doom Republicans in Nov. But it's Florida, so who knows.
0 x

User avatar
CyHawk_Cub
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 9099
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2007 9:24 pm
x 380
x 3453

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:59 pm

^^ Unfortunately, I think it'll serve to feed the right wing feedback loop: SEE WE ALWAYS KNEW GOVERNMENT SUCKS CAN'T EVEN DO THIS RIGHT!!
0 x

NOLA
All-Star
Posts: 4650
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 3:17 am
Location: Bywater, New Orleans
x 1077
x 800
Contact:

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:37 am

snoodmonger wrote:
CoolHandLuke wrote:These national polls don't take into account where the votes are coming from, right? Hillary was up 2 points in 2016. I think statewide polls in Wisconsin, Michigan, etc, are a lot more important to look at when deciding on your confidence level.

https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

This state level approval data is pretty comforting. Michigan and Wisconsin look like pretty safe bets to flip back to dem. And then Biden would only need to win one of the close ones (Pennsylvania, Ohio, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina) to wrap up a victory.


I think Republicans could be in a lot of trouble in Florida if the unemployment thing down there is not fixed. They've worked hard for a long time to make it difficult to apply for and qualify for unemployment, and you get a pittance even if you do. (I think the max weekly amount is sub-$300.) This was a pet project of Republicans and Rick Scott. A lot of people didn't care because it didn't affect them. Now, of course, lots of people suddenly need it. And they either can't get it because of enrollment fiascos or they're finding out that the benefits are barely useful. In a normal world, all that might doom Republicans in Nov. But it's Florida, so who knows.

Agree 100% that they’re handling of this in FLA is going to effect the election. Shocking that MAGA shills whose only qualification is that they kiss Trump’s ass cannot govern after all.
0 x

User avatar
minnesotacubsfan
Superstar
Posts: 18409
Joined: Sat Jul 19, 2003 2:27 pm
Location: THE HONORABLE JUDGE PRICK
x 2109
x 913

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:25 am

So, we’re printing $2.x trillion now? Hello inflation?
0 x
Image

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 71799
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 1392
x 2968

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Fri Apr 10, 2020 1:39 am

minnesotacubsfan wrote:So, we’re printing $2.x trillion now? Hello inflation?


Borrowing at basically 0% interest
0 x

User avatar
gflore34
All-Star
Posts: 4084
Joined: Wed Sep 01, 2004 5:32 pm
Location: Lansing, MI.
x 4
x 47

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby gflore34 » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:27 am

minnesotacubsfan wrote:So, we’re printing $2.x trillion now? Hello inflation?


Does it matter? Very little, if any, of it is going to get in the hands of the people who need it the most.
0 x

User avatar
Regular Show
All-Star
Posts: 3328
Joined: Mon May 16, 2016 10:16 am
Location: Chicago, IL
x 2433
x 1248

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Regular Show » Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:33 am

0 x
"It was met with, basically, he didn't want to talk about that. He didn't want me to tell him that. I just basically said, 'Well that's why we want an electronic strike zone.'" -- Ben Zobrist


Return to “Social”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Brian707, Google [Bot] and 3 guests