The Politics Thread

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby squally1313 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:21 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:32 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Honestly, rereading your replies, I'm not exactly sure what point your trying to make other than "horsefeathers all Trump supporting chuds" which is definitely a sentiment I can get behind.

Mainly though my fear in very general terms revolves around how many Trump chuds are essentially radicalized in the next several months, to the point they cause severe civil unrest. I don't believe that's all 60m today (but all 60m definitely have that potential!). But the potential number will be impacted by the environment around them (like say a results process that flips a narrow Trump lead to a narrow Biden victory over a couple days, and God forbid if any actual protracted legal battle takes place over any of it).


This all came out of a discussion where people, yourself included, were vaguely talking about how there was somehow going to be motivation/incentive for people who are, presumably, opposed to the idea of Trump winning a second term, to end the election as quickly as possible regardless of the true outcome. If your actual point was, "I'm worried about more Trump fanatics turning violent because of a close election," that's a different thing.

Like, if the election stretches out a week, and some dude shoots a place up demanding that Trump be named the winner, everyone's not going to suddenly go, "my god, that angry lunatic is right! Stop everything!"

Well I did try to clarify right away that I wasn't agreeing with Derwoods media part of his angle. But I do think even if they report it by the book that there are many people who lack the nuance to understand the scenario where majority democratic mail-in votes carry Biden across the finish line. And there may even be some Trump-Biden voters who fall into that category who end up believing some sort of false equivalence scenario where they felt the election was rigged and immediately heel turn back. Its a bit of a deeper, "what if even less public faith in our democratic institution exists in 6 months. It's already at a historical low I believe, but I fear if it tanks even more because we have a bit of an unprecedented election in the middle of a pandemic that people aren't used to.

Going all the way to just shooting up random people is the extreme that im not really worried about. I'm not thinking some full scale civil war. But our world obviously already exists in a somewhat fragile state of civil unrest and the likely outcome could actually be that people upset about some perceived election fraud utilize the BLM protest movement to unleash their unrest and broad support tanks against BLM as that new civil unrest just becomes associated with that movement.


Guys, you've been alive for the last 20+ years. There's no scenario where the Republicans do anything but try to undermine and delegitimize a Democratic WH. It was flat out their stated objective the last time the Democrats won. How the election plays out will do nothing to soften their bull horsefeathers.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubinNY » Wed Sep 02, 2020 4:52 pm

squally1313 wrote:
CubinNY wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:https://twitter.com/natashabertrand/status/1301115418627788800?s=21

Every department in the executive branch is pretty much operating as a Trump protection rocket at this point.

If Biden does win, there is going to be quite a reckoning.


Image

Maybe so, but I think (*hope) that the GOP realizes what could happen if a megalomaniac like Trump has a D behind his name rather than an R. The Russians don't like Trump becuase he has an R behind his name. They like him becuase he is a maniac who did more than they could ever do to tear us apart.

I think (*hope) that legislative branch can come together and reign in the power of the executive branch. The last four years have demonstated that custom is not enough to stop someone like Trump from flauting violating customs/rules. They should all want to get this togheter for the betterment of the country.

If the Democrats don't do anything about the agressive lawlessness of Trump when they have power, then they don't deserve to be in power.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:06 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
This all came out of a discussion where people, yourself included, were vaguely talking about how there was somehow going to be motivation/incentive for people who are, presumably, opposed to the idea of Trump winning a second term, to end the election as quickly as possible regardless of the true outcome. If your actual point was, "I'm worried about more Trump fanatics turning violent because of a close election," that's a different thing.

Like, if the election stretches out a week, and some dude shoots a place up demanding that Trump be named the winner, everyone's not going to suddenly go, "my god, that angry lunatic is right! Stop everything!"

Well I did try to clarify right away that I wasn't agreeing with Derwoods media part of his angle. But I do think even if they report it by the book that there are many people who lack the nuance to understand the scenario where majority democratic mail-in votes carry Biden across the finish line. And there may even be some Trump-Biden voters who fall into that category who end up believing some sort of false equivalence scenario where they felt the election was rigged and immediately heel turn back. Its a bit of a deeper, "what if even less public faith in our democratic institution exists in 6 months. It's already at a historical low I believe, but I fear if it tanks even more because we have a bit of an unprecedented election in the middle of a pandemic that people aren't used to.

Going all the way to just shooting up random people is the extreme that im not really worried about. I'm not thinking some full scale civil war. But our world obviously already exists in a somewhat fragile state of civil unrest and the likely outcome could actually be that people upset about some perceived election fraud utilize the BLM protest movement to unleash their unrest and broad support tanks against BLM as that new civil unrest just becomes associated with that movement.


Guys, you've been alive for the last 20+ years. There's no scenario where the Republicans do anything but try to undermine and delegitimize a Democratic WH. It was flat out their stated objective the last time the Democrats won. How the election plays out will do nothing to soften their bull horsefeathers.

But people aren't mindless zombies who's only stimuli is GOP hack talking points. The world around them plays a role in the effectiveness of that message. 2016 was apparently a great environment for that message. 2020 probably won't be as much, but there will probably be some level of rebound between 2020 and 2022, but it's depth isn't some certain outcome and the Dems probably need a good 4 years to carry out some legitimate change.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby gflore34 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:06 pm

CubinNY wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
CubinNY wrote:If Biden does win, there is going to be quite a reckoning.


Image

Maybe so, but I think (*hope) that the GOP realizes what could happen if a megalomaniac like Trump has a D behind his name rather than an R. The Russians don't like Trump becuase he has an R behind his name. They like him becuase he is a maniac who did more than they could ever do to tear us apart.

I think (*hope) that legislative branch can come together and reign in the power of the executive branch. The last four years have demonstated that custom is not enough to stop someone like Trump from flauting violating customs/rules. They should all want to get this togheter for the betterment of the country.

If the Democrats don't do anything about the agressive lawlessness of Trump when they have power, then they don't deserve to be in power.


I believe they will, on the back burner, there are immediately problems which must be worked on as soon as Biden gets in office. I cannot wait for Trump being kicked to curb until he's investigated. Its going to fun to see him trying to defend himself and play the martyr card.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:08 pm

CubinNY wrote:Unless things change dramatically and swiftly (and there is no history that they will), Trump is going to lose the EC. It will be on election night. The only way it won't happen is if the Russians have manged to hack the system. However, I do not believe in consipricy theories and that would take the complicity of literally millions of people in local, state, and federal government to accomplish.

Well yea, definitely. The closer we get to election day and Biden polling at 8+ nationally and 4+ in swing states, this concern definitely vaporizes. If he's down to like +5 and +1 respectively, it's within a pretty damn uncomfortable margin of error.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby squally1313 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 5:53 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
This all came out of a discussion where people, yourself included, were vaguely talking about how there was somehow going to be motivation/incentive for people who are, presumably, opposed to the idea of Trump winning a second term, to end the election as quickly as possible regardless of the true outcome. If your actual point was, "I'm worried about more Trump fanatics turning violent because of a close election," that's a different thing.

Like, if the election stretches out a week, and some dude shoots a place up demanding that Trump be named the winner, everyone's not going to suddenly go, "my god, that angry lunatic is right! Stop everything!"

Well I did try to clarify right away that I wasn't agreeing with Derwoods media part of his angle. But I do think even if they report it by the book that there are many people who lack the nuance to understand the scenario where majority democratic mail-in votes carry Biden across the finish line. And there may even be some Trump-Biden voters who fall into that category who end up believing some sort of false equivalence scenario where they felt the election was rigged and immediately heel turn back. Its a bit of a deeper, "what if even less public faith in our democratic institution exists in 6 months. It's already at a historical low I believe, but I fear if it tanks even more because we have a bit of an unprecedented election in the middle of a pandemic that people aren't used to.

Going all the way to just shooting up random people is the extreme that im not really worried about. I'm not thinking some full scale civil war. But our world obviously already exists in a somewhat fragile state of civil unrest and the likely outcome could actually be that people upset about some perceived election fraud utilize the BLM protest movement to unleash their unrest and broad support tanks against BLM as that new civil unrest just becomes associated with that movement.


Guys, you've been alive for the last 20+ years. There's no scenario where the Republicans do anything but try to undermine and delegitimize a Democratic WH. It was flat out their stated objective the last time the Democrats won. How the election plays out will do nothing to soften their bull horsefeathers.


Undermine and delegitimize are two pretty different things though. Undermine is using whatever power that they still have to impede Democratic policy through mostly legitimate ways, in terms of legality. An entire party believing a president is not legitimate isn't that far off from 'well we don't have to follow the laws of the government, since they didn't actually win'
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:00 pm

squally1313 wrote:Undermine and delegitimize are two pretty different things though. Undermine is using whatever power that they still have to impede Democratic policy through mostly legitimate ways, in terms of legality. An entire party believing a president is not legitimate isn't that far off from 'well we don't have to follow the laws of the government, since they didn't actually win'


Maybe I'm naive, but I don't think that level of destabilization is in the interests of the people who the Republican party serves, even compared to a progressive government(and especially compared to a Biden presidency).
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:37 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Well I did try to clarify right away that I wasn't agreeing with Derwoods media part of his angle. But I do think even if they report it by the book that there are many people who lack the nuance to understand the scenario where majority democratic mail-in votes carry Biden across the finish line. And there may even be some Trump-Biden voters who fall into that category who end up believing some sort of false equivalence scenario where they felt the election was rigged and immediately heel turn back. Its a bit of a deeper, "what if even less public faith in our democratic institution exists in 6 months. It's already at a historical low I believe, but I fear if it tanks even more because we have a bit of an unprecedented election in the middle of a pandemic that people aren't used to.

Going all the way to just shooting up random people is the extreme that im not really worried about. I'm not thinking some full scale civil war. But our world obviously already exists in a somewhat fragile state of civil unrest and the likely outcome could actually be that people upset about some perceived election fraud utilize the BLM protest movement to unleash their unrest and broad support tanks against BLM as that new civil unrest just becomes associated with that movement.


Guys, you've been alive for the last 20+ years. There's no scenario where the Republicans do anything but try to undermine and delegitimize a Democratic WH. It was flat out their stated objective the last time the Democrats won. How the election plays out will do nothing to soften their bull horsefeathers.


Undermine and delegitimize are two pretty different things though. Undermine is using whatever power that they still have to impede Democratic policy through mostly legitimate ways, in terms of legality. An entire party believing a president is not legitimate isn't that far off from 'well we don't have to follow the laws of the government, since they didn't actually win'


The GOP willfully tolerated and all but openly encouraged everything that called into question Obama's legitimacy as a president and citizen. And the claims that Democrats use votes from illegal immigrants have been around well before him, too. Their stated intention if Hillary won was to bury her under investigations with the goal of impeaching her.

Some of you seem to be in denial about how far horsefeathering gone the Republicans have been for a long, long time now. There is zero chance Biden can win this election where everyone on the Right doesn't horsefeathers all over that he won, how he won, and everything afterwards.
Last edited by Sammy Sofa on Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby David » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:40 pm

i admittedly don't know a lot about this, but why do we look at national polling so much and try to extrapolate a likelihood of winning the EC based off of that instead of just looking at statewide polling in swing states?

isn't biden holding pretty comfortable margins in most and at least close to slim in a couple others? seems to me that's as good a sign as any of how uphill of a battle trump needs to climb given how he badly needed those razor thin wins in said states last time (and got pretty much all he needed).
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:55 pm


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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:55 pm

David wrote:i admittedly don't know a lot about this, but why do we look at national polling so much and try to extrapolate a likelihood of winning the EC based off of that instead of just looking at statewide polling in swing states?

isn't biden holding pretty comfortable margins in most and at least close to slim in a couple others? seems to me that's as good a sign as any of how uphill of a battle trump needs to climb given how he badly needed those razor thin wins in said states last time (and got pretty much all he needed).


This is mostly guesswork on my part, but the reasons that jump out to me are:

- Simplicity. It's easier to do a national poll than a state poll because you have a zillion more people to pick from.
- Tradition/inertia. The popular vote used to be a more ironclad barometer of winning the electoral college.
- Comparisons. State polls trade more statistical rigor(b/c of samples/demographics) for a localized result, so knowing how different a state is from the the national average and how consistent that difference is can help us understand likely outcomes better.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 6:57 pm

David wrote:i admittedly don't know a lot about this, but why do we look at national polling so much and try to extrapolate a likelihood of winning the EC based off of that instead of just looking at statewide polling in swing states?

isn't biden holding pretty comfortable margins in most and at least close to slim in a couple others? seems to me that's as good a sign as any of how uphill of a battle trump needs to climb given how he badly needed those razor thin wins in said states last time (and got pretty much all he needed).

More availability I think is the biggest reason. States aren't as polled as heavily and you can use high quality national polls to still extrapolate demographic info that would help indicate state movements too.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:01 pm

Nate Silver has a bigger doom boner than Kyle.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby David » Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:03 pm

Banedon wrote:Nate Silver has a bigger doom boner than Kyle.


i feel like he's over-correcting after 2016
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby squally1313 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:12 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Guys, you've been alive for the last 20+ years. There's no scenario where the Republicans do anything but try to undermine and delegitimize a Democratic WH. It was flat out their stated objective the last time the Democrats won. How the election plays out will do nothing to soften their bull horsefeathers.


Undermine and delegitimize are two pretty different things though. Undermine is using whatever power that they still have to impede Democratic policy through mostly legitimate ways, in terms of legality. An entire party believing a president is not legitimate isn't that far off from 'well we don't have to follow the laws of the government, since they didn't actually win'


The GOP willfully tolerated and all but openly encouraged everything that called into question Obama's legitimacy as a president and citizen. And the claims that Democrats use votes from illegal immigrants have been around well before him, too. Their stated intention if Hillary won was to bury her under investigations with the goal of impeaching her.

Some of you seem to be in denial about how far horsefeathering gone the Republicans have been for a long, long time now. There is zero chance Biden can win this election where everyone on the Right doesn't horsefeathers all over that he won, how he won, and everything afterwards.


I still think there's a difference between being an illegitimate candidate (Obama) or potentially doing criminal activity (HRC, but also Trump), and having a widespread (in one party) belief that the sitting president actually lost the election. Obama's margins were decisive enough that there really wasn't an 'illegal immigrant voter' theory that really took off. At the government level, it's the difference between stalling/impeding/undermining and flat out refusing to follow the standard protocols under the guise of the president not being legitimate. At the average citizen level...who knows.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:21 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:

I believe 538 has written before the Obama actually had the EC advantage in either 2008 or 2012 (maybe both?), so just focusing on this group of states seems to be missing part of the story. Whatever happened in the most bellwether states has been pretty impactful to swinging th EC advantage to the GOP/Trump.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Wed Sep 02, 2020 7:44 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:

I believe 538 has written before the Obama actually had the EC advantage in either 2008 or 2012 (maybe both?), so just focusing on this group of states seems to be missing part of the story. Whatever happened in the most bellwether states has been pretty impactful to swinging th EC advantage to the GOP/Trump.

I think Nate may be overthinking this one and contradicting himself as he's said over and over that the polling to look at are the state polls, where Biden is ahead almost across the board in Hillary and Trump won battleground states. In the absence of good and current state polling, look to national polling.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:13 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:16 pm

No Chris, no they have not. Credulous peeps be credulous.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:27 pm

And as Fox News hits upon the QAnon theme even more going forward, that number will only go up.

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:28 pm

NOLA wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:

I believe 538 has written before the Obama actually had the EC advantage in either 2008 or 2012 (maybe both?), so just focusing on this group of states seems to be missing part of the story. Whatever happened in the most bellwether states has been pretty impactful to swinging th EC advantage to the GOP/Trump.

I think Nate may be overthinking this one and contradicting himself as he's said over and over that the polling to look at are the state polls, where Biden is ahead almost across the board in Hillary and Trump won battleground states. In the absence of good and current state polling, look to national polling.

Yeah, he's just concerned about the tightening that happened nationwide in 2016. If the same thing happens, then all of those states get tighter as well. I just don't know why you'd think tightening like that would happen again.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:31 pm

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This is how the question was posed.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby sneakypower » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:36 pm

PA looking likeliest tipping point state currently and polling avg. there is about +5 Biden - even NC here is presently a toss-up - so people probably should feel ok about public sentiment, it's more that voter suppression perhaps most worrying

elec-20.PNG
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 02, 2020 8:48 pm

sneakypower wrote:PA looking likeliest tipping point state currently and polling avg. there is about +5 Biden - even NC here is presently a toss-up - so people probably should feel ok about public sentiment, it's more that voter suppression perhaps most worrying

elec-20.PNG

Yea, but the election isn't today.

Maybe Trump cuts it down to within the margin for error. Maybe Biden busts open a 10 pt lead. There's probably less uncertainty strictly in the polls than in 2016 (less unsure/third party support), but probably equal amount of just societal uncertainty (what happens with economy/coronavirus/BML etc over the next 8 weeks)
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