The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby NOLA » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:29 pm

Everybody just breathe....

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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 7:38 pm

NOLA wrote:Everybody just breathe....


That's fair, and any axienty about this election should be put into its proper statistical context, but Minn, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn total 56 electoral votes to Texas's 38.
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby Brian707 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:10 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
NOLA wrote:Everybody just breathe....


That's fair, and any axienty about this election should be put into its proper statistical context, but Minn, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn total 56 electoral votes to Texas's 38.



But Texas is to Republicans what California is to Democrats. Trump, to win again has to win every single state he won last time or flip a state like Minnesota if he loses Wisconsin for example to Biden
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby NOLA » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:11 pm

Time for "where are they now?"

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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby The Logan » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:12 pm

I'm beyond disgusted with this administration at this point, but this is next level disgust.

https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/li ... on-center/

Multiple women came forward to tell Project South about what they perceived to be the inordinate rate at which women in ICDC were subjected to hysterectomies – a surgical operation in which all or part of the uterus is removed. Additionally, many of the immigrant women who underwent the procedure were reportedly “confused” when asked to explain why they had the surgery, with one detainee likening their treatment to prisoners in concentration camps.

“Recently, a detained immigrant told Project South that she talked to five different women detained at ICDC between October and December 2019 who had a hysterectomy done,” the complaint stated. “When she talked to them about the surgery, the women ‘reacted confused when explaining why they had one done.’ The woman told Project South that it was as though the women were ‘trying to tell themselves it’s going to be OK.’”

“When I met all these women who had had surgeries, I thought this was like an experimental concentration camp. It was like they’re experimenting with our bodies,” the detainee said.

According to Wooten, ICDC consistently used a particular gynecologist – outside the facility – who almost always opted to remove all or part of the uterus of his female detainee patients.

“Everybody he sees has a hysterectomy—just about everybody,” Wooten said, adding that, “everybody’s uterus cannot be that bad.”

“We’ve questioned among ourselves like goodness he’s taking everybody’s stuff out…That’s his specialty, he’s the uterus collector. I know that’s ugly…is he collecting these things or something…Everybody he sees, he’s taking all their uteruses out or he’s taken their tubes out. What in the world.”


It's like they know they can't get away with straight up murdering them so they just remove their ability to reproduce. I just can not withstand another 4 years of this horsefeathering fascist horsefeathers.
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:19 pm

Yikes

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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby gflore34 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:19 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:


Must have been completely hammered.
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby The_Achiever » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:22 pm

I don’t have a lot of faith in the powers that be to allow Texas to turn blue. Not this time anyway.
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby gflore34 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:33 pm

The Logan wrote:I'm beyond disgusted with this administration at this point, but this is next level disgust.

https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/li ... on-center/

Multiple women came forward to tell Project South about what they perceived to be the inordinate rate at which women in ICDC were subjected to hysterectomies – a surgical operation in which all or part of the uterus is removed. Additionally, many of the immigrant women who underwent the procedure were reportedly “confused” when asked to explain why they had the surgery, with one detainee likening their treatment to prisoners in concentration camps.

“Recently, a detained immigrant told Project South that she talked to five different women detained at ICDC between October and December 2019 who had a hysterectomy done,” the complaint stated. “When she talked to them about the surgery, the women ‘reacted confused when explaining why they had one done.’ The woman told Project South that it was as though the women were ‘trying to tell themselves it’s going to be OK.’”

“When I met all these women who had had surgeries, I thought this was like an experimental concentration camp. It was like they’re experimenting with our bodies,” the detainee said.

According to Wooten, ICDC consistently used a particular gynecologist – outside the facility – who almost always opted to remove all or part of the uterus of his female detainee patients.

“Everybody he sees has a hysterectomy—just about everybody,” Wooten said, adding that, “everybody’s uterus cannot be that bad.”

“We’ve questioned among ourselves like goodness he’s taking everybody’s stuff out…That’s his specialty, he’s the uterus collector. I know that’s ugly…is he collecting these things or something…Everybody he sees, he’s taking all their uteruses out or he’s taken their tubes out. What in the world.”


It's like they know they can't get away with straight up murdering them so they just remove their ability to reproduce. I just can not withstand another 4 years of this horsefeathering fascist horsefeathers.


That'll come if Trump' re-elected, this, along with open season on people of color. If a person of color so much as looks at the dirt they're going to be gunned down.
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby David » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:35 pm

The_Achiever wrote:I don’t have a lot of faith in the powers that be to allow Texas to turn blue. Not this time anyway.


not really the point
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:36 pm

Brian707 wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
NOLA wrote:Everybody just breathe....


That's fair, and any axienty about this election should be put into its proper statistical context, but Minn, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn total 56 electoral votes to Texas's 38.



But Texas is to Republicans what California is to Democrats. Trump, to win again has to win every single state he won last time or flip a state like Minnesota if he loses Wisconsin for example to Biden

Perhaps by perceptions/emotion, but from a red/blue/purple split it isn't.

But let's just say. Winning Texas means outperforming well in several big media markets, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio/Austin, etc. How different is that to needing to perform well in the media markets of Minny/St Paul, Milwaukee, Detroit? Except 2/3 in the Midwest gets you somes split electoral votes whereas maybe in TX 2/3 is still winner take all to the GOP.

I mean obviously the appeal of TX going blue makes sense and I get it, but the "closer in TX than in MN" isn't absolute either. They're probably both on a spectrum where polling doesnt have to be off in every direction/demographic to go poorly for Dems (or awesome).
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Sep 14, 2020 8:58 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Brian707 wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:That's fair, and any axienty about this election should be put into its proper statistical context, but Minn, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Penn total 56 electoral votes to Texas's 38.



But Texas is to Republicans what California is to Democrats. Trump, to win again has to win every single state he won last time or flip a state like Minnesota if he loses Wisconsin for example to Biden

Perhaps by perceptions/emotion, but from a red/blue/purple split it isn't.

But let's just say. Winning Texas means outperforming well in several big media markets, Houston, Dallas, San Antonio/Austin, etc. How different is that to needing to perform well in the media markets of Minny/St Paul, Milwaukee, Detroit? Except 2/3 in the Midwest gets you somes split electoral votes whereas maybe in TX 2/3 is still winner take all to the GOP.

I mean obviously the appeal of TX going blue makes sense and I get it, but the "closer in TX than in MN" isn't absolute either. They're probably both on a spectrum where polling doesnt have to be off in every direction/demographic to go poorly for Dems (or awesome).

Well..sure? But I think we can be pretty certain that if Biden wins Texas, he's winning the entire midwest as well.

I don't think Harry is pretending that Texas is a tipping point state. Both Texas and to a (not much) lesser extent for Republicans, Minnesota, are landslide states. It just goes to show how different things are becoming, electorally. I think Harry was trying to point out that Biden is doing well, and he obviously is, but that a state like Texas, with a huge population, might actually be close but ultimately still stay a red state could turn up the volume on the national vote/electoral result divide.
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:20 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:36 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Well..sure? But I think we can be pretty certain that if Biden wins Texas, he's winning the entire midwest as well.


I don't know?

Just using Texas and Minnesota as a comparison, and one demographic, white verse non white, Texas is closer to the country as a whole than Minnesota is. Obviously you can split out endless demographics to test and endless turnout scenarios to test, but I think the habit is to look at the prior election as a starting point when the reality is, the electoral map has historically shifted a lot and 2000-2012 represented relative stability. And while I appreciate Harry's point is rooted in the polls, since Texas and Minn aren't that similar overall, the *if polls are accurate* qualifier isn't necessarily binary.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CoolHandLuke » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:51 pm

Isn't he just trying to say that we shouldn't be worried about Minnesota based on polling, and if we are it is entirely based on emotion not data? I don't think he's trying to compare the two states or suggest that Texas is in play.

Maybe I'm wrong.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 9:57 pm

CoolHandLuke wrote:Isn't he just trying to say that we shouldn't be worried about Minnesota based on polling, and if we are it is entirely based on emotion not data? I don't think he's trying to compare the two states or suggest that Texas is in play.

Maybe I'm wrong.

I don't know, I took it as the GOP should be as worried about TX as Dems are about Minn, which is likely true, but also seems to implicitly suggest that the accuracy of polling in either is equivalent, which maybe isn't the case.

Eta: let's just say polls underestimate white Trump support by a little and also underestimate the acceptance rate of mail in ballots for Hispanic voters. I'll let the data people say what that actually means, but right away intuitively I wouldnt necessarily expect Minn and TX to move similarly towards the respective poles.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Brian » Mon Sep 14, 2020 10:47 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:27 pm

very importantly, who changed the thread title?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:27 pm

Brian wrote:

He is such a horsefeathers. I mean stone cold [expletive].
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:42 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Brian wrote:

He is such a horsefeathers. I mean stone cold [expletive].

I mean the hasshat was talking about exploding trees like they are a real thing.
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Re: The Politics Thread - No marine life allowed!

Postby TruffleShuffle » Mon Sep 14, 2020 11:47 pm

The Logan wrote:I'm beyond disgusted with this administration at this point, but this is next level disgust.

https://lawandcrime.com/high-profile/li ... on-center/

Multiple women came forward to tell Project South about what they perceived to be the inordinate rate at which women in ICDC were subjected to hysterectomies – a surgical operation in which all or part of the uterus is removed. Additionally, many of the immigrant women who underwent the procedure were reportedly “confused” when asked to explain why they had the surgery, with one detainee likening their treatment to prisoners in concentration camps.

“Recently, a detained immigrant told Project South that she talked to five different women detained at ICDC between October and December 2019 who had a hysterectomy done,” the complaint stated. “When she talked to them about the surgery, the women ‘reacted confused when explaining why they had one done.’ The woman told Project South that it was as though the women were ‘trying to tell themselves it’s going to be OK.’”

“When I met all these women who had had surgeries, I thought this was like an experimental concentration camp. It was like they’re experimenting with our bodies,” the detainee said.

According to Wooten, ICDC consistently used a particular gynecologist – outside the facility – who almost always opted to remove all or part of the uterus of his female detainee patients.

“Everybody he sees has a hysterectomy—just about everybody,” Wooten said, adding that, “everybody’s uterus cannot be that bad.”

“We’ve questioned among ourselves like goodness he’s taking everybody’s stuff out…That’s his specialty, he’s the uterus collector. I know that’s ugly…is he collecting these things or something…Everybody he sees, he’s taking all their uteruses out or he’s taken their tubes out. What in the world.”


It's like they know they can't get away with straight up murdering them so they just remove their ability to reproduce. I just can not withstand another 4 years of this horsefeathering fascist horsefeathers.


Make Eugenics Great Again
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:07 am

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Omar » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:17 am

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... -forecast/
Iowa - 51.1 Trump, 47.5 Biden
Texas - 51.3 Trump, 47.7 Biden

insane how Texas is a bit more of a swing state than Iowa right now.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:22 am

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
CoolHandLuke wrote:Isn't he just trying to say that we shouldn't be worried about Minnesota based on polling, and if we are it is entirely based on emotion not data? I don't think he's trying to compare the two states or suggest that Texas is in play.

Maybe I'm wrong.

I don't know, I took it as the GOP should be as worried about TX as Dems are about Minn, which is likely true, but also seems to implicitly suggest that the accuracy of polling in either is equivalent, which maybe isn't the case.

Eta: let's just say polls underestimate white Trump support by a little and also underestimate the acceptance rate of mail in ballots for Hispanic voters. I'll let the data people say what that actually means, but right away intuitively I wouldnt necessarily expect Minn and TX to move similarly towards the respective poles.

If Minnesota votes for Trump, prepare to either move to another galaxy or fight to the death to stay here.


It ain't happening
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:24 am

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
CoolHandLuke wrote:Isn't he just trying to say that we shouldn't be worried about Minnesota based on polling, and if we are it is entirely based on emotion not data? I don't think he's trying to compare the two states or suggest that Texas is in play.

Maybe I'm wrong.

I don't know, I took it as the GOP should be as worried about TX as Dems are about Minn, which is likely true, but also seems to implicitly suggest that the accuracy of polling in either is equivalent, which maybe isn't the case.

Eta: let's just say polls underestimate white Trump support by a little and also underestimate the acceptance rate of mail in ballots for Hispanic voters. I'll let the data people say what that actually means, but right away intuitively I wouldnt necessarily expect Minn and TX to move similarly towards the respective poles.

If Minnesota votes for Trump, prepare to either move to another galaxy or fight to the death to stay here.


It ain't happening

I'm not counting on it, but I'm very certain the same thing was said about the "Blue Wall" in 2016
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