The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby abuck1220 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:14 pm

my concerns are:

1) cheating
...
...
...
17) pennsylvania
18) biden having a stroke or something during a debate
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:17 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I keep feeling like all of the battling of the post office and voting by mail/absentee ballots has created this horsefeathers up perfect storm nightmare where too many key Democratic voters are going to vote that way instead of in person, and therefore will be most vulnerable to their votes getting horsefeathers with.

I totally get that for a ton of people getting to a polling place is difficult or too risky right now....but if that doesn't apply to you, for the love of god, show up and vote. If you have the sick or vacation time available if that's what is needed to show up, show up and vote. Don't vote by mail unless you all but have to.

Also, just utilize old fashion early voting if you can. Usually shorter lines and less social interaction.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:17 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:I keep feeling like all of the battling of the post office and voting by mail/absentee ballots has created this horsefeathers up perfect storm nightmare where too many key Democratic voters are going to vote that way instead of in person, and therefore will be most vulnerable to their votes getting horsefeathers with.

I totally get that for a ton of people getting to a polling place is difficult or too risky right now....but if that doesn't apply to you, for the love of god, show up and vote. If you have the sick or vacation time available if that's what is needed to show up, show up and vote. Don't vote by mail unless you all but have to.



its standard practice in WA state. I'm not going anywhere to vote, I'll do it comfortably in my skivvies and with two fingers of scotch
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:19 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:I am definitely not an optimist. I just don't see Trump's route to victory anymore.

Something like his route in 2016.

I'd say Pennsylvania looking weaker than expected is the most nerve racking sign right now. That's a big state from the 2016 map if the Dems can't expand into a state like AZ, NC, or FL.

For instance,
https://www.270towin.com/maps/47ZzB

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... nsylvania/

And all of this is happening while Trump's national approval numbers are inexplicably RISING nationally. He's back up to 43%, more or less, and that obviously still sucks. This actually looks like his high water mark to me, and he's losing his ass everywhere. He also seems to be out of money. Not only is that bad for his campaign's effectiveness, but there are predictive signals included when campaigns are failing to raise money.

Massive ballot hyjinx/cheating seems like his only route.

Yea 75/25 which i think where 538s overall prediction odds are.

Obviously 75/25 is great, but I also felt pretty great when the odds were at 70/30 in 2016 until he won and I realized, horsefeathers 30% pretty good odds when "tyrannical maniac" is in the ballot.

So yea, Pennsylvania is a great bellwether right now. I wish the odds were better!
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:21 pm

abuck1220 wrote:my concerns are:

1) cheating
...
...
...
17) pennsylvania
18) biden having a stroke or something during a debate

Same, excpet for I also worry about what is going to happen if he does lose.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:22 pm

I put it at like a 3% chance that Trump realizes he’s going to lose badly, declares Antifa has messed with the election and the only fair thing to do is send in DHS agents to seize ballot boxes in key states.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:24 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I put it at like a 3% chance that Trump realizes he’s going to lose badly, declares Antifa has messed with the election and the only fair thing to do is send in DHS agents to seize ballot boxes in key states.

3% seems high. But it's also like 3% higher than we should be talking about.

How many crazy right wingers theorized about Obama doing the same type of thing, do you think? (not trying to create anequivalence, genuinely just curious).
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:30 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:How many crazy right wingers theorized about Obama doing the same type of thing, do you think? (not trying to create anequivalence, genuinely just curious).


It's not an equivalency; these horse [expletive] project literally all of their worst fears, paranoia and rage fantasies about the opposition into reality as the horsefeathers they do/endorse.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:38 pm

I used to think the people I work with out here were off their rockers when they would talk about "Cascadia" - their made up country comprised of (south to north) Medford Oregon to Vancouver BC and (east to west) the Cascades to the Pacific ocean. Now I'm ready to fight for succession if Trump wins again...its too easy to justify
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:41 pm

A small bit of good news: a judge struck down the Ohio GOP’s attempt to limit one drop-in ballot box per county. Franklin county (where I live) has 1.2 million residents and would have had a single drop-off location.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:43 pm

Derwood wrote:A small bit of good news: a judge struck down the Ohio GOP’s attempt to limit one drop-in ballot box per county. Franklin county (where I live) has 1.2 million residents and would have had a single drop-off location.

How could they even horsefeathering argue for that? What was the justification?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:47 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Derwood wrote:A small bit of good news: a judge struck down the Ohio GOP’s attempt to limit one drop-in ballot box per county. Franklin county (where I live) has 1.2 million residents and would have had a single drop-off location.

How could they even horsefeathering argue for that? What was the justification?


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... hiAqE9WkpI

Article doesn’t really say
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:50 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Derwood wrote:A small bit of good news: a judge struck down the Ohio GOP’s attempt to limit one drop-in ballot box per county. Franklin county (where I live) has 1.2 million residents and would have had a single drop-off location.

How could they even horsefeathering argue for that? What was the justification?

Their formal justification or the actual one?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:53 pm

Derwood wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Derwood wrote:A small bit of good news: a judge struck down the Ohio GOP’s attempt to limit one drop-in ballot box per county. Franklin county (where I live) has 1.2 million residents and would have had a single drop-off location.

How could they even horsefeathering argue for that? What was the justification?


https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2020-e ... hiAqE9WkpI

Article doesn’t really say

Yes it does

LaRose cited a state election law that says absentee ballots must be “delivered by mail or personally” to a voter’s county election director. He has said that he personally supports counties adding more drop boxes, but that he lacks the legal authority to expand the number beyond the one established in law.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Sep 16, 2020 9:53 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Derwood wrote:A small bit of good news: a judge struck down the Ohio GOP’s attempt to limit one drop-in ballot box per county. Franklin county (where I live) has 1.2 million residents and would have had a single drop-off location.

How could they even horsefeathering argue for that? What was the justification?

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:06 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Something like his route in 2016.

I'd say Pennsylvania looking weaker than expected is the most nerve racking sign right now. That's a big state from the 2016 map if the Dems can't expand into a state like AZ, NC, or FL.

For instance,
https://www.270towin.com/maps/47ZzB

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... nsylvania/

And all of this is happening while Trump's national approval numbers are inexplicably RISING nationally. He's back up to 43%, more or less, and that obviously still sucks. This actually looks like his high water mark to me, and he's losing his ass everywhere. He also seems to be out of money. Not only is that bad for his campaign's effectiveness, but there are predictive signals included when campaigns are failing to raise money.

Massive ballot hyjinx/cheating seems like his only route.

Yea 75/25 which i think where 538s overall prediction odds are.

Obviously 75/25 is great, but I also felt pretty great when the odds were at 70/30 in 2016 until he won and I realized, horsefeathers 30% pretty good odds when "tyrannical maniac" is in the ballot.

So yea, Pennsylvania is a great bellwether right now. I wish the odds were better!

There is another slant that I've been thinking about that I haven't seen talked about. Feel free to call me dumb.

So, there were multiple states that Trump won that no one really gave him a shot at winning, and they wound up being tipping point states. Wisconsin and Michigan and the like. For obvious reasons, those states are being polled like crazy this time around. Biden is winning handily there. But no one is polling in states where Democrats have made obvious inroads recently (2018) and in polling. Arkansas most especially, but Kansas and Alaska are also examples.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... /arkansas/

Now, I'm not saying its at all likely, but no models are giving any chance whatsoever at these kinds of states being being in play, and recent results (not necessarily biased) are the only reason we consider Michigan in play.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/20 ... /michigan/

I think Trump's electoral advantage is a little overestimated because of this. It wasn't but 8 years ago when it was presumed Democrats enjoyed an electoral college advantage, and it was largely because the state-by-state polling frequency baked an assumption in without anyone noticing.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:15 pm

Kansas is my favorite for surprise states to flip becuase of its demographics lining up well with the 2018 blue wave and increased turnout demographic. I definitely threw out a map with it in this very thread.

So no I don't think it's dumb, but it's also more "I'd throw $10 at a betting market for it" type thing.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:31 pm

That's said if you're going demographic heavy on these type of analysis, it necessitates pessimism about somewhere like Minnesota.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:46 pm



I’ve been wondering if the national polls getting closer is a product of red states going redder, sort of like Hillary running up numbers in 2016. Except, she got more votes, of course.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 10:51 pm

NOLA wrote:https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1306289407671119873?s=21

I’ve been wondering if the national polls getting closer is a product of red states going redder, sort of like Hillary running up numbers in 2016. Except, she got more votes, of course.

Its possible. Any negative uncertainty about 2020 should be countered with some equal Biden EC blowout optimism.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:07 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
NOLA wrote:https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1306289407671119873?s=21

I’ve been wondering if the national polls getting closer is a product of red states going redder, sort of like Hillary running up numbers in 2016. Except, she got more votes, of course.

Its possible. Any negative uncertainty about 2020 should be countered with some equal Biden EC blowout optimism.

Like Judas, I just don’t see a path for Trump to win. Biden just has to hope the polling is even somewhat accurate, with very few undecideds out there. Trump has to get an upset in multiple states. It ain’t happening.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:13 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:That's said if you're going demographic heavy on these type of analysis, it necessitates pessimism about somewhere like Minnesota.

How so? What demographics in Minnesota suggest its open to Trump out of curiosity?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:51 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:That's said if you're going demographic heavy on these type of analysis, it necessitates pessimism about somewhere like Minnesota.

How so? What demographics in Minnesota suggest its open to Trump out of curiosity?

High white population. I think it skews older too, but I'd have to check. Higher than average educational attainment does help offset these. And these things are obviously by no means precursors, there's a lot of noise, but if I had to chose some other surprise GOP flips it would be older, white D states that might be under polled as well (NH, ME I think would both fit here).
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Sep 16, 2020 11:56 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:That's said if you're going demographic heavy on these type of analysis, it necessitates pessimism about somewhere like Minnesota.

How so? What demographics in Minnesota suggest its open to Trump out of curiosity?

High white population. I think it skews older too, but I'd have to check. Higher than average educational attainment does help offset these. And these things are obviously by no means precursors, there's a lot of noise, but if I had to chose some other surprise GOP flips it would be older, white D states that might be under polled as well (NH, ME I think would both fit here).

Colorado is pretty damn white, and it keeps getting more and more blue by the month. I don't think race demo is the right way to go about things. Education and religious affiliation tell the tale.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby TruffleShuffle » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:29 am

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