JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:WrigleyField 22 wrote:minnesotacubsfan wrote:How so? What demographics in Minnesota suggest its open to Trump out of curiosity?
High white population. I think it skews older too, but I'd have to check. Higher than average educational attainment does help offset these. And these things are obviously by no means precursors, there's a lot of noise, but if I had to chose some other surprise GOP flips it would be older, white D states that might be under polled as well (NH, ME I think would both fit here).
Colorado is pretty damn white, and it keeps getting more and more blue by the month. I don't think race demo is the right way to go about things. Education and religious affiliation tell the tale.
I mean race definitely means something. And CO looks like it's at the very least staying flat whereas it looks like MN is somehow getting slightly whiter. I'm sure the positive net migration is helpful for CO as well.
I haven't looked too much at religious affiliation. I had focused before on median age and education since those were big turnout groups for 2018. Also the lower a state for turnout historically, the more potential they had. So thats where Kansas came in. But it's also 6 EC votes so it's not like it's a particularly good ROI to actually invest in either.