The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:11 pm

BigbadB wrote:Another new poll out this am has Biden up 53-39. That's a bloody massacre. Trump better recruit some more Proud Boys.


Here’s the data:
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby BigbadB » Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:17 pm

NOLA wrote:
BigbadB wrote:Another new poll out this am has Biden up 53-39. That's a bloody massacre. Trump better recruit some more Proud Boys.


Here’s the data:


Yep. That's the one I saw. Thanks for posting that.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:47 pm

Was just coming to post that. Read the whole thread.

One of the more interesting is that in the prior poll, Trump had a 10 pt advantage in handling the economy. It's down to 7 now, but how insane is it when the economy to overall polling swings 21 points! On one hand I think it shows the huge structural disadvantage Ds will always have when it comes to the economy. On the other hand, holy horsefeathers what kind of raging idiot can fumble away a 7 point economic advantage as an incumbent (rhetorical question obviously).
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 04, 2020 1:50 pm

Edit nevermind I can't add before morning coffee
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 04, 2020 2:59 pm

Just for kicks, if the entire country moved about +12 from 2016 (+2 to +14)

https://www.270towin.com/maps/KPz0J

If Biden proportionally closed the gap amongst white working class more than the nation as a whole, I'd think MT, MO, IN, KS all go into toss-up territory.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:16 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:Just for kicks, if the entire country moved about +12 from 2016 (+2 to +14)

https://www.270towin.com/maps/KPz0J

If Biden proportionally closed the gap amongst white working class more than the nation as a whole, I'd think MT, MO, IN, KS all go into toss-up territory.

I can squint and maybe see the other states, but KANSAS?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby muntjack » Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:37 pm

Eh, Wichita, Lawrence and Topeka are all blue. We elected a democratic senator, etc.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 04, 2020 3:40 pm

NOLA wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Just for kicks, if the entire country moved about +12 from 2016 (+2 to +14)

https://www.270towin.com/maps/KPz0J

If Biden proportionally closed the gap amongst white working class more than the nation as a whole, I'd think MT, MO, IN, KS all go into toss-up territory.

I can squint and maybe see the other states, but KANSAS?

Well at +20 in 2016 there's several other states between +15-20, but it does have some demos working for it, with the biggest demo working against it being %evangelical.

I did have it jump some other 2016 states based on the "if Biden closed the gap more among white" qualifier. But I've long touted it as a obscure dark horse based on 2018 turnout.

As it relates to turnout though, it's another good thing to bring up. In a place like WI, turnout is already historically high. To get to +14 like numbers he may very well do so with increased turnout in historically low turnout states, many of which are historically red states too (though there are exceptions). So a proportional +12 movement won't be how it works, among other reasons.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:27 pm

I sometimes try to hold out hope that Missouri might be more in play than polls indicate, in the STL burbs I see as many Biden/anti-Trump signs as I do Trump, and that extends even out to my parents in the outermost burbs that are less diverse/more Stepfordian. But this weekend I had to drive across the state and the number of big Trump signs or unofficial billboards(including one with the old “National News = Fake News” chestnut) plus the disappointment of the Hawley/McCaskill election keep me from being too optimistic. I kinda think Kansas may be more likely.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:30 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
NOLA wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Just for kicks, if the entire country moved about +12 from 2016 (+2 to +14)

https://www.270towin.com/maps/KPz0J

If Biden proportionally closed the gap amongst white working class more than the nation as a whole, I'd think MT, MO, IN, KS all go into toss-up territory.

I can squint and maybe see the other states, but KANSAS?

Well at +20 in 2016 there's several other states between +15-20, but it does have some demos working for it, with the biggest demo working against it being %evangelical.

I did have it jump some other 2016 states based on the "if Biden closed the gap more among white" qualifier. But I've long touted it as a obscure dark horse based on 2018 turnout.

As it relates to turnout though, it's another good thing to bring up. In a place like WI, turnout is already historically high. To get to +14 like numbers he may very well do so with increased turnout in historically low turnout states, many of which are historically red states too (though there are exceptions). So a proportional +12 movement won't be how it works, among other reasons.

If Biden even has a snowball’s chance in MT or KS, we won’t have to worry about the ending the filibuster debate because there will be a Dem supermajority in the Senate.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:33 pm

NOLA wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
NOLA wrote:I can squint and maybe see the other states, but KANSAS?

Well at +20 in 2016 there's several other states between +15-20, but it does have some demos working for it, with the biggest demo working against it being %evangelical.

I did have it jump some other 2016 states based on the "if Biden closed the gap more among white" qualifier. But I've long touted it as a obscure dark horse based on 2018 turnout.

As it relates to turnout though, it's another good thing to bring up. In a place like WI, turnout is already historically high. To get to +14 like numbers he may very well do so with increased turnout in historically low turnout states, many of which are historically red states too (though there are exceptions). So a proportional +12 movement won't be how it works, among other reasons.

If Biden even has a snowball’s chance in MT or KS, we won’t have to worry about the ending the filibuster debate because there will be a Dem supermajority in the Senate.

I mean, MT and KS certainly look like competitive senate races, but if we see a Biden blowout I think you'll see a lot of moderately minded people go split ticket specifically for the purpose of wanting to temper a "far left agenda.". Even at the tail end of the bell curve I don't think there's a senate supermajority in 2020. Would need a strong year and then repeat in 2022.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby snoodmonger » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:49 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I sometimes try to hold out hope that Missouri might be more in play than polls indicate, in the STL burbs I see as many Biden/anti-Trump signs as I do Trump, and that extends even out to my parents in the outermost burbs that are less diverse/more Stepfordian. But this weekend I had to drive across the state and the number of big Trump signs or unofficial billboards(including one with the old “National News = Fake News” chestnut) plus the disappointment of the Hawley/McCaskill election keep me from being too optimistic. I kinda think Kansas may be more likely.


Kansas has the advantage (?) of having had its state totally destroyed by Brownback, which I think maybe made folks a tick more likely to consider super-centrist Dems.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Oct 04, 2020 4:55 pm

snoodmonger wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I sometimes try to hold out hope that Missouri might be more in play than polls indicate, in the STL burbs I see as many Biden/anti-Trump signs as I do Trump, and that extends even out to my parents in the outermost burbs that are less diverse/more Stepfordian. But this weekend I had to drive across the state and the number of big Trump signs or unofficial billboards(including one with the old “National News = Fake News” chestnut) plus the disappointment of the Hawley/McCaskill election keep me from being too optimistic. I kinda think Kansas may be more likely.


Kansas has the advantage (?) of having had its state totally destroyed by Brownback, which I think maybe made folks a tick more likely to consider super-centrist Dems.


Yep, I think there’s also a law of large numbers thing at play too. Switching Kansas 20 points requires a swing of around 150k votes with similar turnout, and Missouri would need twice as many. The population being roughly half the size means there’s more room for variance, which matters when we’re talking about hoping for a result on the margins.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:00 pm

Democrats need to win 27 of 35 senate races to get to 60. 538 has 8 of those races being 99+% odds for the republican candidate, and several more in red states(MS, KY, AL) being easily over 90. Montana(67% red) and Kansas(80% red) are comparatively in play, but there is zero chance of 60 even in a historic landslide.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:08 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CaliforniaRaisin » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:10 pm

Getting massive Dr. Spaceman vibes from Trump’s doctor.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:10 pm



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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:21 pm

I have heard from some doctors before all this that they were just throwing dexamwhatever at everyone who is admitted with covid, even though it’s not the official recommendation.

But overall, yeah, the concrete information we get out of the doctors imply a severe case of COVID-19. We have a high fever, multiple incidences of oxygen levels dropping, clear lung involvement and likely pneumonia.

He probably does feel well enough to walk around his suite in spurts, sign some papers, maybe even demand to go back to the White House in the next few days. Lots of people do at this stage. But he is on the razor’s edge of continuing to feel better slowly over weeks or collapsing and being intubated tomorrow, possibly never to wake up.

And with that much lung involvement, he’s going to have noticeably lowered conditioning levels and lower energy for many weeks. He can’t possibly run a normal campaign from here under the best case scenarios. And his big plan was to run against Biden’s health.

I’m so paranoid about being overconfident but it’s hard to imagine how this isn’t a knockout blow to his political career short of a literal coup.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:26 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:33 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 04, 2020 5:51 pm

To poorly paraphrase a tweet sent during the Women's March pro-GOP counter-protest: this support group could split a pizza pie.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby SouthSideRyan » Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:00 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:I sometimes try to hold out hope that Missouri might be more in play than polls indicate, in the STL burbs I see as many Biden/anti-Trump signs as I do Trump, and that extends even out to my parents in the outermost burbs that are less diverse/more Stepfordian. But this weekend I had to drive across the state and the number of big Trump signs or unofficial billboards(including one with the old “National News = Fake News” chestnut) plus the disappointment of the Hawley/McCaskill election keep me from being too optimistic. I kinda think Kansas may be more likely.


Yea, I think Kansas is bluer than Missouri or Indiana. Not that I think any of them will go for Biden.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 04, 2020 7:50 pm



Seriously, if he croaks this is going to be worth a ton.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby javy knows my name » Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:00 pm

NOLA wrote:https://twitter.com/christinawilkie/status/1312814290143977479?s=21

Seriously, if he croaks this is going to be worth a ton.


...like the way "2016 World Champion Cleveland Indians" hats are?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 04, 2020 8:04 pm

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