The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:07 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:I don't think many/any here are a fan of the guy, but that silence is golden.


I mean, for whatever policy positions many on here don't like him for, the guy is actually a pretty skilled communicator and politician. That much should be obvious.


The stunned look on their collective faces was awesome, caught them with an uppercut. I'd like to see him as cabinet member in the next administration. It's too bad he's not the nominee for President, I know, regardless, of his skill, intelligence, youth and energy, he'd currently wouldn't have a chance. But, can imagine what he would have done to Trump in the debate?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby sneakypower » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:34 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby sneakypower » Thu Oct 08, 2020 1:34 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
TruffleShuffle wrote:https://twitter.com/Subhah/status/1314027862102470657

Did this get removed?! Is twitter trying to pretend flies aren't black or something?!

some got mad at her for comparing black people to bugs (stretch) and she nuked it
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:03 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:17 pm

Was the format of the next Presidential debate going to an virtual town hall? If so, as many have said, a town hall is the worst format for Trump that notwithstanding, I wonder if true deterrent was the moderator having the ability to mute? Being so, that might have forced Trump to talk actual policy and plan, which of course, he has none, well, besides grifting. Really, what's the use? All we have heard from Trump are same two items he always speaks of - 1. Ban on China 2. We built the greatest economy. It's truly pathetic those are enough for some people because, they're empty meaningless statements.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:52 pm

While a town hall debate with mouth-breathing methroid Trump would have been amazing and good for the cause, this is the next best thing. He backs out, looks weak in more ways than one, and everyone gets to remember him for his last disasterous debate preformance while Biden enjoys a double digit lead nationally.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 2:57 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:While a town hall debate with mouth-breathing methroid Trump would have been amazing and good for the cause, this is the next best thing. He backs out, looks weak in more ways than one, and everyone gets to remember him for his last disasterous debate preformance while Biden enjoys a double digit lead nationally.

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Yeah honestly, while clearly he could and probably would make things worse by appearing in this debate, any scenario where he gets less screen time on non-Fox News outlets to turn around his situation is probably a good thing overall.

That said, I have a feeling that he still ends up participating the debate, assuming he doesnt croak from COVID in the next few days.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby BigbadB » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:05 pm

Biden should plan on using that tv time to his advantage even if Trump won't attend. Turn it into a prime time town hall Q & A.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CoolHandLuke » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:06 pm

If trump backs out does Biden get an hour and half of national tv time to himself or would the debate be cancelled?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:11 pm

CoolHandLuke wrote:If trump backs out does Biden get an hour and half of national tv time to himself or would the debate be cancelled?


I'm sure someone could answer more definitively but I would assume no, since I'm assuming the TV time is bought by this Commission on Presidential Debates which I would guess is a bipartisan commission.

His campaign could certainly buy the airtime, at least one one of the networks, to take advantage of the window.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:23 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby sneakypower » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:35 pm

that's pretty clumsily worded i think; it's obviously more likely he'll receive less than 400 EV, but the single most likely scenario there has him winning with that 400+ EV firgure
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:44 pm

sneakypower wrote:that's pretty clumsily worded i think; it's obviously more likely he'll receive less than 400 EV, but the single most likely scenario there has him winning with that 400+ EV firgure

Its still surprising that the mode of the Monte Carlo is in the 400s. I suppose its just that a lot of electoral votes are clumped together with Texas and similar demo states.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:47 pm

sneakypower wrote:that's pretty clumsily worded i think; it's obviously more likely he'll receive less than 400 EV, but the single most likely scenario there has him winning with that 400+ EV firgure


i don't really think it's poorly worded. that's exactly what he said. most likely outcome. if you want to split hairs, yeah, adding single would be more clear, but that's how i read it right away fwiw.

also it looks to me like the two most single most likely scenarios are 400+ EC votes, unless i'm an idiot, which is entirely true.

either way, 538 is currently projecting 344 electoral votes for biden.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:50 pm

sneakypower wrote:that's pretty clumsily worded i think; it's obviously more likely he'll receive less than 400 EV, but the single most likely scenario there has him winning with that 400+ EV firgure

Yea, means, medians, modes, all mean different things basically.

I would be curious as to why the mode is so much higher than the median and mean in this case though. Is it just an odd happenstance of the mathemics due to winner take all allocation of the EC?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:53 pm

David wrote:
sneakypower wrote:that's pretty clumsily worded i think; it's obviously more likely he'll receive less than 400 EV, but the single most likely scenario there has him winning with that 400+ EV firgure


i don't really think it's poorly worded. that's exactly what he said. most likely outcome. if you want to split hairs, yeah, adding single would be more clear, but that's how i read it right away fwiw.

also it looks to me like the two most single most likely scenarios are 400+ EC votes, unless i'm an idiot, which is entirely true.

either way, 538 is currently projecting 344 electoral votes for biden.

I think it's pretty poorly worded. As worded, I would take it to mean the cumulative odds of a 400+ result is greater than the cumulative results of less than 400. Which isn't the case.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:55 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Thu Oct 08, 2020 3:55 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
David wrote:
sneakypower wrote:that's pretty clumsily worded i think; it's obviously more likely he'll receive less than 400 EV, but the single most likely scenario there has him winning with that 400+ EV firgure


i don't really think it's poorly worded. that's exactly what he said. most likely outcome. if you want to split hairs, yeah, adding single would be more clear, but that's how i read it right away fwiw.

also it looks to me like the two most single most likely scenarios are 400+ EC votes, unless i'm an idiot, which is entirely true.

either way, 538 is currently projecting 344 electoral votes for biden.

I think it's pretty poorly worded. As worded, I would take it to mean the cumulative odds of a 400+ result is greater than the cumulative results of less than 400. Which isn't the case.


i mean it is literally the most likely outcome. those words don't mean or imply that it is more likely than not, as far as i'm concerned. this is ultimately simply the difference between a plurality and a majority.

but yeah, like i said, you could add single for more clarity, i suppose, but with the chart right there i don't really think it's all that unclear.

but who the hell cares?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:02 pm

eh on second thought i guess technically the "most likely outcome" is everything but that one, so w/e, i guess i'm wrong.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:02 pm

David wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
David wrote:
i don't really think it's poorly worded. that's exactly what he said. most likely outcome. if you want to split hairs, yeah, adding single would be more clear, but that's how i read it right away fwiw.

also it looks to me like the two most single most likely scenarios are 400+ EC votes, unless i'm an idiot, which is entirely true.

either way, 538 is currently projecting 344 electoral votes for biden.

I think it's pretty poorly worded. As worded, I would take it to mean the cumulative odds of a 400+ result is greater than the cumulative results of less than 400. Which isn't the case.


i mean it is literally the most likely outcome. those words don't mean or imply that it is more likely than not, as far as i'm concerned. this is ultimately simply the difference between a plurality and a majority.

but yeah, like i said, you could add single for more clarity, i suppose, but with the chart right there i don't really think it's all that unclear.

but who the hell cares?

Apparently we care? Lol

As far as most likely outcome, the one outcome presented is "over 400", which to me reads more like a two outcome analysis (over/under) . With the graph attached you can figure out that they mean some single number that is a number over 400, but it's still kind of a sloppy way to write it.

Also, how valuable is the mode in a thousand+ simulations where there must be thousands(?) of different possible results. I'd care much more about median, and perhaps mean.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:07 pm

CoolHandLuke wrote:If trump backs out does Biden get an hour and half of national tv time to himself or would the debate be cancelled?


CNN indicated that the debate commission would continue with the town hall as planned, even if Trump doesn't show up
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:09 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:12 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
sneakypower wrote:that's pretty clumsily worded i think; it's obviously more likely he'll receive less than 400 EV, but the single most likely scenario there has him winning with that 400+ EV firgure

Its still surprising that the mode of the Monte Carlo is in the 400s. I suppose its just that a lot of electoral votes are clumped together with Texas and similar demo states.

Its gotta be the case where a few really outlier and uncorrelated results just happen to add to the same electoral college number even though theres like 3-4 broadly different outcomes that get to that specific number. Whereas many broadly similar (and highly likely) outcomes in the 360-380 range just don't tend to add up to the same number.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:49 pm

Showing up and trying matters? What a weird concept.

Now, please Dems, do more Latino/Hispanic outreach. Stop apparently ceding the field to the Koch brothers network, especially in FL.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bertz » Thu Oct 08, 2020 4:53 pm



So it begins?
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