The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:04 am

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:24 am

NOLA wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:

Yeah, but he could give a more savvy answer, like “I hope the GOP doesn’t force us to consider all options” or something. It doesn’t matter. He’s winning this.

Eh to the extent it matters, I think there's an argument for not putting it so explicitly in retaliatory terms (even if it's easy to read through the lines as such). The way Biden is answering it is ignoring it and putting the focus on why the GOP is forcing through ACB. Don't let them distract from ACB. If GOP wants to bring it up they're just bringing up an easy opportunity to turn it back on their wildly unpopular move. Don't let them off the hook by trying to be forthcoming and reasonable or whatever.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:29 am



Yep. Let’s end this horsefeathers.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:17 am

Before he was jacked up on steroids I believe Trump knew Biden is going to be elected hence, his numerous there's "no way we're going to lose this election" statements at the RNC and this or that rally. It's the same dynamic with Trump, when he insists one thing is going to happen or true it's always the opposite. I suspect he's got a horsefeathers ton of physical aliments, we know he's mentally ill, but, his insistence of his physical well being, etc., quite probably means otherwise. Not including COVID.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun Oct 11, 2020 3:41 am

getting yourself arrested because someone petted a dog

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:16 am



Come on men.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:14 am

With 23 days to go in 2016, the RCP average was Clinton +5 with 15% undecided.

Today it is Biden +10 with just 6% undecided.


Trump won from here in 2016 by making a 2-point comeback in the polls, having his actual total be 1 point better than the polls, and getting a 2.5-point advantage in the electoral college thanks to his demographic strength in the upper Midwest.

So between polling error, comeback and EC advantage, Trump needs a swing roughly double the size of the one he got last time.

My doom boner can totally come up with situations where that is plausible
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby UK » Sun Oct 11, 2020 11:37 am

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/10/1 ... ace-428541

Regardless of outcome, this is an amazing haul.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:17 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:With 23 days to go in 2016, the RCP average was Clinton +5 with 15% undecided.

Today it is Biden +10 with just 6% undecided.


Trump won from here in 2016 by making a 2-point comeback in the polls, having his actual total be 1 point better than the polls, and getting a 2.5-point advantage in the electoral college thanks to his demographic strength in the upper Midwest.

So between polling error, comeback and EC advantage, Trump needs a swing roughly double the size of the one he got last time.

My doom boner can totally come up with situations where that is plausible

Or the polling errors go the other direction and Biden wins SC, AK, MT, MO, KS.

Okay sorry for the positivity.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:25 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Banedon » Sun Oct 11, 2020 12:59 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:With 23 days to go in 2016, the RCP average was Clinton +5 with 15% undecided.

Today it is Biden +10 with just 6% undecided.


Trump won from here in 2016 by making a 2-point comeback in the polls, having his actual total be 1 point better than the polls, and getting a 2.5-point advantage in the electoral college thanks to his demographic strength in the upper Midwest.

So between polling error, comeback and EC advantage, Trump needs a swing roughly double the size of the one he got last time.

My doom boner can totally come up with situations where that is plausible


There's a lot of natural skepticism in this thread....but if there's one thing we *all* believe in....it's the capability of your doom boner.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:13 pm

Banedon wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:With 23 days to go in 2016, the RCP average was Clinton +5 with 15% undecided.

Today it is Biden +10 with just 6% undecided.


Trump won from here in 2016 by making a 2-point comeback in the polls, having his actual total be 1 point better than the polls, and getting a 2.5-point advantage in the electoral college thanks to his demographic strength in the upper Midwest.

So between polling error, comeback and EC advantage, Trump needs a swing roughly double the size of the one he got last time.

My doom boner can totally come up with situations where that is plausible


There's a lot of natural skepticism in this thread....but if there's one thing we *all* believe in....it's the capability of your doom boner.


Kyle's got to step it up; I've already moved on from "Trump's going to win a second term" to "when Supreme Chancellor Tom Cotton is granted emergency powers after the 2024 election we're REALLY horsefeathers."
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby BigbadB » Sun Oct 11, 2020 2:33 pm

John Oliver posted a clip of a young black gentleman standing in line in Georgia for more than 7 hours to vote. What impressed me that was not said in that clip is that for him to wait that long to vote also means everyone else in front of him stayed there to vote, also.

I think this is the difference between now and 2016. People just assumed Hilary was going to win, so didn't bother voting. This year, they aren't taking that chance.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Rob » Sun Oct 11, 2020 4:03 pm

I hadn't wanted to stress the post-office with a mail-in ballot, but was starting to get worried a COVID outbreak might make me quarantine on election day. So I decided to go ahead and vote about a week ago. Pretty long lines especially considering early voting had already been open for a couple weeks or so. I can usually walk right in, but it took me a half-hour or so this time.

I'm so sick of the GOP. I really hope the Dems just wipe the floor with them, pack the courts, uncap the House, give statehood to DC, PR, Guam, etc... and set themselves up such that the GOP will have to start being sane to attract enough voters to win.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby stitchface » Sun Oct 11, 2020 5:55 pm

I dropped my ballot off last night while doing my grocery shopping. It is only complicated to allow people to vote if you want it to be.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:50 pm


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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 11, 2020 8:58 pm

My favorite is the "don't make SCt picks political !!" shtick as if the process wasn't designed to be, and hasn't always been, horsefeathering political. Give me a horsefeathering break.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:08 pm

SCOTUS picks haven't always been political like they are now. RBG was confirmed something like 96-3.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:14 pm

Lack of closeness in the vote doesn't mean it's not a inherently political process.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:29 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:Lack of closeness in the vote doesn't mean it's not a inherently political process.


Yeah, plus RBG's nomination was largely an outlier in how especially political this process typically has been for almost 40 years now.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:47 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:Lack of closeness in the vote doesn't mean it's not a inherently political process.


Yeah, plus RBG's nomination was largely an outlier in how especially political this process typically has been for almost 40 years now.


It's kinda been all over the place

O'Connor ('81): 99-0
Rehnquist ('86): 65-33
Scalia ('86): 98-0
Kennedy ('88): 97-0
Souter ('90): 90-9
Thomas ('91): 52-48
Ginsberg ('93): 96-3
Breyer ('94): 87-9
Roberts ('05): 78-22
Alito ('06): 58-42
Sotomayor ('09): 68-31
Kagan ('10): 63-37
Gorsuch ('17): 54-45
Kavanaugh ('19): 50-48
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 11, 2020 9:58 pm

Derwood wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:Lack of closeness in the vote doesn't mean it's not a inherently political process.


Yeah, plus RBG's nomination was largely an outlier in how especially political this process typically has been for almost 40 years now.


It's kinda been all over the place

O'Connor ('81): 99-0
Rehnquist ('86): 65-33
Scalia ('86): 98-0
Kennedy ('88): 97-0
Souter ('90): 90-9
Thomas ('91): 52-48
Ginsberg ('93): 96-3
Breyer ('94): 87-9
Roberts ('05): 78-22
Alito ('06): 58-42
Sotomayor ('09): 68-31
Kagan ('10): 63-37
Gorsuch ('17): 54-45
Kavanaugh ('19): 50-48

And before Nixon, it was common for the nominations to be voice votes within basically days. It was occassionally political although I think it wasn't so partisanly so (like if the nominee was Catholic or something, those from both sides of the aisle came together to voice their disproval).
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:02 pm

I mean Antonin horsefeathering Scalia was unanimously approved. It's impossible to imagine
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:51 pm

Scalia's vote was so bloodless because of how contested Rehnquist's was that same year, and because Reagan's only other choice was the walking controversy that was Robert Bork.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:53 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Scalia's vote was so bloodless because of how contested Rehnquist's was that same year, and because Reagan's only other choice was the walking controversy that was Robert Bork.


Even Rehnquist had 2/3’s approval. We may not see anything but straight part line votes for the next decade
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