The Politics Thread

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JudasIscariotTheBird
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:16 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It's fascinating to me how much the map has changed so quickly. Largely because the Republican Party has completely remade itself into an openly white nationalist fascist party, gaining a lot of uneducated white voters and throwing away a lot of suburban voters.

Four years ago, Colorado was considered a swing state. The reason I was so sure Clinton would win on election night was that early voting looked like it had already sealed Colorado for her (correct) and there was no way that the blue wall in the rust belt would be redder than Colorado (very incorrect).
Now both sides have basically written off Colorado. Georgia is slightly blue-er than Ohio. New Mexico is safer than Pennsylvania.

But god bless it, Florida remains determined to be a toss-up no matter what.

Just an FYI, the Pennsylvania early voting looks like it did in Colorado's 2016. ...and Colorado's 2020 early voting is...well, I can see why both parties have ceased funding Colorado campaigns. Michigan remains the state that worries me most.


Not yet. With Colorado in 2016, there was a point before election day where a huge percentage of the expected total had already voted because Colorado lets everyone vote by mail.

Right now, Pennsylvania reports about 800k early ballots received. The 2016 total was just under 6 million. We need a lot more early ballots in PA before we can be sure if there's an actual surge or just a shifting of votes that would have happened anyway.

I suppose that's correct. I haven't been looking at total votes cast as much as rate of mail ballot returned. That's what reminds me of Colorado back then. And the national early vote totals are what I'm hanging my hat on.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:22 am

NOLA wrote:I’ll just leave this here.

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Hahahahaha
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:47 am

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:19 am

Whelp, with that loss of tax revenue, that means one less box of coffee stirrers a year in the WH press room.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:23 am

Jesus horsefeathers, please gtfo.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Cubfanintheknow » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:25 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:Whelp, with that loss of tax revenue, that means one less box of coffee stirrers a year in the WH press room.


Extradition from Brazil is a beeyotch.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby priorcruz » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:37 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
cl smooth wrote:Well, look who just awakened from their 4-year NSBB coma...

I wonder if he is from Colorado. I wish he had taken me up on my 10k offer back then. Offer still stands for this election, Prior.


Yes....I missed on Colorado. Thought we had a shot there....have pretty much written it off going forward.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CoolHandLuke » Sat Oct 17, 2020 5:48 am

It's so weird that this horsefeathering guy came back
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:10 pm

I expect frostywrm to show up any minute
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:14 pm

i wonder where that vinestal lunatic is
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sat Oct 17, 2020 12:17 pm

Did redflash or whatever get banned?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:25 pm

Cubfanintheknow wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:Whelp, with that loss of tax revenue, that means one less box of coffee stirrers a year in the WH press room.


Extradition from Brazil is a beeyotch.

Also, Jake Arrieta oughta tweet "Scram, beat it" at him
Last edited by CyHawk_Cub on Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:26 pm

David wrote:i wonder where that vinestal lunatic is

He threw a hissy fit in a baseball thread because of anti-Ricketts rhetoric, or something, and took his ball and went home months ago, if I recall correctly. Another overly sensitive snowflake MAGA chud, supposedly of the "horsefeathers your feelings" persuasion, not manly enough to handle negative heat thrown at his idols.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby weis21 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:47 pm

Voted yesterday. In and out in about 15 min. Didn’t get a sticker but got a pen to keep. If this turns out well I’m going to have my dad build (clearly I’m useless) a showcase for it and put it on the wall.

Dont let me down, NC.

ETA: could have been 10 min time but spent more time double checking my choices were all blue. I was that student that double checked their bubble form at the end.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bertz » Sat Oct 17, 2020 2:56 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sat Oct 17, 2020 3:32 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478026301657089?s=19

But this is a good thing. People have been fretting about Trump claiming victory over good early results. This would prevent that, assuming Trump chooses to base a victory claim on an actual event or count, which one should not assume.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:58 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:28 pm

I'm starting to think Trump & GOP'ers have zero concern for the health and well-being of their supporters any other humans.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:29 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:I'm starting to think Trump & GOP'ers have zero concern for the health and well-being of their supporters any other humans.


On the one hand, yes, his need to be publicly praised is absolutely more important to him than the well-being of his supporters

On the other hand, every person at that rally has all the information they need to make a smart choice about attending
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby abuck1220 » Sat Oct 17, 2020 10:54 pm

get the number of cases up super high, claim it’s not safe to have the election, push it back another year. maybe his best strategy at this point. smart.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby The Logan » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:02 pm

All-female group within the Steelworkers Union did this early this morning apparently

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David
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:20 pm

that's not just a photoshop?

how did/would they do that and what do steelworkers have to do with that building at this point?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby cl smooth » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:28 pm

David wrote:that's not just a photoshop?

how did/would they do that and what do steelworkers have to do with that building at this point?


https://www.reddit.com/r/chicago/commen ... ll_female/
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:32 pm

cl smooth wrote:
David wrote:that's not just a photoshop?

how did/would they do that and what do steelworkers have to do with that building at this point?


https://www.reddit.com/r/chicago/commen ... ll_female/


ahhh got it. thx. that's pretty cool.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:15 am

With 17 days to go in 2016, the RCP average was Clinton +2.6. Today it is Biden +9.0.

I’m still going to obsess over nightmare scenarios where somehow this all falls apart, but I’m having to wade pretty far into the doom boner fringes to get there.

There isn’t a doubt in my mind that some faction of Trump’s inner circle is still eyeing the “create chaos, count on the stacked court” method of outright stealing the election, although a lot of their schemes either never get attempted or get bungled.

But I finally feel comfortable enough to be looking at EC scenarios.

Obviously the primary path is Clinton + Rust Belt (MI/WI/PA). But there are some alternative ones.

North Carolina is a state that I keep coming back to. It’s been trending blue for awhile, the polling there is bad for Trump, and it’s demographically similar to neighboring states where he’s polling way below where he wants to be.

And of course, always, there is America’s big floppy hanging dong that always manages to turn every election into a poop show. I expect Trump to win Florida even if Biden wins all the way through Georgia and Texas because screw Florida, but by the numbers it’s a Biden-leaning tossup.

So Clinton + NC + Florida + Arizona still wins even if Trump magically sweeps the rust belt again.
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