Hairyducked Idiot wrote:JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It's fascinating to me how much the map has changed so quickly. Largely because the Republican Party has completely remade itself into an openly white nationalist fascist party, gaining a lot of uneducated white voters and throwing away a lot of suburban voters.
Four years ago, Colorado was considered a swing state. The reason I was so sure Clinton would win on election night was that early voting looked like it had already sealed Colorado for her (correct) and there was no way that the blue wall in the rust belt would be redder than Colorado (very incorrect).
Now both sides have basically written off Colorado. Georgia is slightly blue-er than Ohio. New Mexico is safer than Pennsylvania.
But god bless it, Florida remains determined to be a toss-up no matter what.
Just an FYI, the Pennsylvania early voting looks like it did in Colorado's 2016. ...and Colorado's 2020 early voting is...well, I can see why both parties have ceased funding Colorado campaigns. Michigan remains the state that worries me most.
Not yet. With Colorado in 2016, there was a point before election day where a huge percentage of the expected total had already voted because Colorado lets everyone vote by mail.
Right now, Pennsylvania reports about 800k early ballots received. The 2016 total was just under 6 million. We need a lot more early ballots in PA before we can be sure if there's an actual surge or just a shifting of votes that would have happened anyway.
I suppose that's correct. I haven't been looking at total votes cast as much as rate of mail ballot returned. That's what reminds me of Colorado back then. And the national early vote totals are what I'm hanging my hat on.