The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:21 am

I generally don't get too excited about early voting totals. It's a lot of tea-leaf-reading and it doesn't really tell you much unless the state gives you a lot of detailed information *and* the margin is huge.

But the fact that Texas has already reached 40% of its 2016 turnout through five days of early voting is insane.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby 17 Seconds » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:29 am

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby BigbadB » Sun Oct 18, 2020 4:55 am

Derwood wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/Forbes/status/1317090688572555270


I read this with a Dr. Evil voice.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:55 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I generally don't get too excited about early voting totals. It's a lot of tea-leaf-reading and it doesn't really tell you much unless the state gives you a lot of detailed information *and* the margin is huge.

But the fact that Texas has already reached 40% of its 2016 turnout through five days of early voting is insane.

It is insane, but I suppose we just have to wait and see if/when some of these totals level off. But yea, at a certain point these figures could be a clear sign of historic turnout, perhaps higher than 2008. But more than a few days is needed because it could just be the enthusiasm problem. Really enthusiastic voters (who may line up day 1 like it's Black Friday), still only get 1 vote.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:58 pm

Derwood wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:I'm starting to think Trump & GOP'ers have zero concern for the health and well-being of their supporters any other humans.


On the one hand, yes, his need to be publicly praised is absolutely more important to him than the well-being of his supporters

On the other hand, every person at that rally has all the information they need to make a smart choice about attending

The information is available but they are being told by the president and several other leaders it is not an issue. If you’re dumb enough to have ever considered supporting him you’re susceptible to that disinformation.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby The Logan » Sun Oct 18, 2020 1:55 pm

The Logan wrote:All-female group within the Steelworkers Union did this early this morning apparently

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:47 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I generally don't get too excited about early voting totals. It's a lot of tea-leaf-reading and it doesn't really tell you much unless the state gives you a lot of detailed information *and* the margin is huge.

But the fact that Texas has already reached 40% of its 2016 turnout through five days of early voting is insane.

It is insane, but I suppose we just have to wait and see if/when some of these totals level off. But yea, at a certain point these figures could be a clear sign of historic turnout, perhaps higher than 2008. But more than a few days is needed because it could just be the enthusiasm problem. Really enthusiastic voters (who may line up day 1 like it's Black Friday), still only get 1 vote.

It's a leading indicator, and not nothing.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Sun Oct 18, 2020 2:54 pm

CubinNY wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I generally don't get too excited about early voting totals. It's a lot of tea-leaf-reading and it doesn't really tell you much unless the state gives you a lot of detailed information *and* the margin is huge.

But the fact that Texas has already reached 40% of its 2016 turnout through five days of early voting is insane.

It is insane, but I suppose we just have to wait and see if/when some of these totals level off. But yea, at a certain point these figures could be a clear sign of historic turnout, perhaps higher than 2008. But more than a few days is needed because it could just be the enthusiasm problem. Really enthusiastic voters (who may line up day 1 like it's Black Friday), still only get 1 vote.

It's a leading indicator, and not nothing.

It could be a leading indicator of enthusiasm and turnout efforts, but so much about this election cycle is unprecedented and unusual. Basically until the point where it becomes so clear that it represents an overall turnout increase from 2016, I think there's some unknown as to what it really means. So to be at 40% of 2016 in week 1... I think you'd need to see what overall turnout is after week 2, if it levels off a ton.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby The Logan » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:14 pm

These are pretty good. https://twitter.com/AbeAndTrump

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:29 pm

Every time I start to feel better, I look at the 2016 Pennsylvania polling with two weeks to go:

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Oct 18, 2020 5:56 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Every time I start to feel better, I look at the 2016 Pennsylvania polling with two weeks to go:

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So many less undecideds, dude.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:08 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Every time I start to feel better, I look at the 2016 Pennsylvania polling with two weeks to go:

Image


So many less undecideds, dude.

James Comey isn’t walking through that door.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:31 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:45 pm

Honestly, making like he's enough a of a [expletive] to lose *THREE* laptops would actually be the most effective criticism at this point.

And I know we joke about how the GOP is all projection all the time, but the Trump campaign trying to scream, "OUR OPPONENT IS NOT QUALIFIED BECAUSE HIS KID IS AN UNRELIABLE MONSTER!" is maybe the peak.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bertz » Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:59 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Every time I start to feel better, I look at the 2016 Pennsylvania polling with two weeks to go:

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So many less undecideds, dude.


Yup. That looks to be about a 47 average, Biden's currently a hair under 51
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Sun Oct 18, 2020 8:36 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:31 pm

So, the GOP strategy with just over two weeks before Election Day is to go full Q-anon. Sounds smart.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:27 pm

Obviously none of it means anything until Democrats actually take power, but the way that Republicans have pissed away McCain's senate seat is truly breathtaking.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:29 pm

NOLA wrote:So, the GOP strategy with just over two weeks before Election Day is to go full Q-anon. Sounds smart.


So Ron Johnson is suggesting that Rudy Giuliani has been in possession of child pornography and hasn't reported it until today?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:37 pm

It’s a cliche because it’s true: everything Trump touches dies.

Outside of his family, the only people who have come out better off for allying with him are Pence, ACB, Kavanaugh and maybe some weasels like Gaetz.

Dozens of other high-profile people have had their careers and lives destroyed just by being in his orbit. Herman Cain died for him and Christie almost did. It’s the trampoline scene from the Simpsons.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:52 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:12 am

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:22 am

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Banedon » Mon Oct 19, 2020 4:34 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Banedon » Mon Oct 19, 2020 5:10 pm

Lol it's nice for him to announce when he's dumping fake scandals...

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