The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:07 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:That's really strange for the model to give Biden a better chance of winning with a NC win and FL AZ loss, compared to a FL win and NC AZ loss. I would think just the electoral vote difference would make the FL win override any demographic foreshadowing that a NC win might hint at. Nate must have made Florida's results REALLY uncoupled from other outcomes.


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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Brian » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:09 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:That's really strange for the model to give Biden a better chance of winning with a NC win and FL AZ loss, compared to a FL win and NC AZ loss. I would think just the electoral vote difference would make the FL win override any demographic foreshadowing that a NC win might hint at. Nate must have made Florida's results REALLY uncoupled from other outcomes.


Yeah his next tweet says it's because of the demographics, a NC win would predict a PA win

- edit - TT beat me with the actual tweet
Last edited by Brian on Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:09 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:That's really strange for the model to give Biden a better chance of winning with a NC win and FL AZ loss, compared to a FL win and NC AZ loss. I would think just the electoral vote difference would make the FL win override any demographic foreshadowing that a NC win might hint at. Nate must have made Florida's results REALLY uncoupled from other outcomes.


He mentioned it later in that thread, but it's because NC is demographically similar to the Midwest, so if he wins NC it's very unlikely he lost PA and Michigan.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:22 pm

He's letting his reptilian form show too much.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:33 pm

UMFan83 wrote:He's letting his reptilian form show too much.



Rescued puppies from a burning building, probably
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby cl smooth » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:36 pm

UMFan83 wrote:He's letting his reptilian form show too much.



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tx_CaXqp9U
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:43 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:44 pm

ZOMBIE MITCH
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:44 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:47 pm

So, Rudy... ah...
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:50 pm

CubinNY wrote:So, Rudy... ah...

Its a thing over on the movie thread.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Oct 21, 2020 7:53 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:15 pm

I want to hear more about Hunter Biden's laptop.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby abuck1220 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:12 pm

can’t believe those fascist extreme left wing joe biden apologist social media platforms wanted to stop the spread of that totally true bombshell story from this completely reliable and not at all dupable source.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:58 pm

After all the votes have been legally counted, they're all legitimate, and Biden has been elected by a significant margin popular and EC, Trump' going to resort to saying only those that were cast for him count, isn't he? Of course, it won't mean anything but, that's all he'll have, his last play.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:14 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:27 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1319019866989395970?s=19

I really hope that any increased turnout is overwhelming toward Dems, regardless of if its a "blue" or "red' county. Because its awfully scary to think that there could be a significant amount of non-voters from 2016 who watched 4 years of this horsefeathers show and said, "you know I'm not a regular voter, but sign me up for 4 years of that!
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby abuck1220 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 10:36 pm

yeah the idea that someone who didn’t vote in 2016 has been so wowed by trump’s spectacular performance the last four years that they are finally motivated to vote is just wild to me.

I also cannot for the life of me figure out the 2016 Clinton voter turned 2020 trump voter. who is that person? 2016 trump voter turned 2020 biden voter makes sense because of [broad gesture toward the universe]. you would think sexism alone would turn enough “not hillary” 2016 votes into “i’m ok with a white male/biden” 2020 votes to flip WI/PA/MI.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:05 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:17 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1319019866989395970?s=19

I really hope that any increased turnout is overwhelming toward Dems, regardless of if its a "blue" or "red' county. Because its awfully scary to think that there could be a significant amount of non-voters from 2016 who watched 4 years of this horsefeathers show and said, "you know I'm not a regular voter, but sign me up for 4 years of that!


I think that is probably more true than not, especially because of Clinton. She was so thoroughly trashed for so long.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:24 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1319019866989395970?s=19

I really hope that any increased turnout is overwhelming toward Dems, regardless of if its a "blue" or "red' county. Because its awfully scary to think that there could be a significant amount of non-voters from 2016 who watched 4 years of this horsefeathers show and said, "you know I'm not a regular voter, but sign me up for 4 years of that!


Its not applicable 2020 is whole hoist of vastly different and unique circumstances from 2016, had this been a somewhat normal Presidential election cycle those statistics would apply. i also believe a good number of those earlier voters are Republicans voting for Biden.
Last edited by gflore34 on Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:50 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Oct 21, 2020 11:48 pm

Trump will definitely pull in a decent chunk of people who didn’t vote in 2016. Never Trump was a real thing back then
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:12 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Trump will definitely pull in a decent chunk of people who didn’t vote in 2016. Never Trump was a real thing back then


4 years of Fox News brain washing. People who don’t usually follow politics are hearing about trump constantly on tv, in other media forms, at family gatherings, etc. If they are influenced by the right source and go down that conservative rabbit hole I can see it happening but not in particularly significant numbers.

That Social Dilemma movie really reinforced this, how someone who shows the slightest presence one way or another can be bombarded with like minded posts/tweets from their favorite social media platform to the point where they start to believe they are the good guys and the other side are the bad guys.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:01 am

Maybe the most encouraging graphic yet.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Forgotmyoldlogin » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:39 am

UMFan83 wrote:He's letting his reptilian form show too much.


Definitely some Dr. Curt Conners stuff going on here
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