The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby UK » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:56 am

Even this stupidity amazes me with this administration...

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:22 am

This is being rightfully ratio’d to hell on Twitter:



How dumb are these people to think that this will somehow harm Biden and help the person who has made repeated sexually suggestive comments about his daughter as far back as when she was a teenager
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NonProfitCow » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:46 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Trump will definitely pull in a decent chunk of people who didn’t vote in 2016. Never Trump was a real thing back then

I call bull horsefeathers on that notion.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Oct 22, 2020 7:05 am

NonProfitCow wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Trump will definitely pull in a decent chunk of people who didn’t vote in 2016. Never Trump was a real thing back then

I call bull horsefeathers on that notion.


He got 63 million last time. Let's see how many he gets this time.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:48 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
NonProfitCow wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Trump will definitely pull in a decent chunk of people who didn’t vote in 2016. Never Trump was a real thing back then

I call bull horsefeathers on that notion.


He got 63 million last time. Let's see how many he gets this time.

Voting eligible population is about 239m. 63% would be a historic turnout. If he got 45% of voters that's 67.7m. He got 46% of voters last time, so as you can deduce, voting eligible population has increased a bit, about 8m (3.5%). So in "real terms" he should be at 65m with flat turnout and flat support. To turn this into a real horserace, in a high turnout environment, he probably needs to get about 72m voters (48%). To stay flat at 62.9m, his vote share needs to drop to about 42% in a high turnout environment.

His current polling average at 538 is 42%, with 6% still undecideds. So 44% would be consistent with the 9.5-10 point average margin 538 currently has. The one big variable remaining is ballot spoilage due to increased mail in voting.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Oct 22, 2020 12:59 pm

NonProfitCow wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Trump will definitely pull in a decent chunk of people who didn’t vote in 2016. Never Trump was a real thing back then

I call bull horsefeathers on that notion.

I'm in on that too. There is not a large proportion of people who didn't vote in 2016 and are inexplicably going to vote for Trump after 4 years of a horsefeathers show and 200,000 deaths from COVID.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:28 pm

CubinNY wrote:
NonProfitCow wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Trump will definitely pull in a decent chunk of people who didn’t vote in 2016. Never Trump was a real thing back then

I call bull horsefeathers on that notion.

I'm in on that too. There is not a large proportion of people who didn't vote in 2016 and are inexplicably going to vote for Trump after 4 years of a horsefeathers show and 200,000 deaths from COVID.


Yep. I don’t see it. If anything you’re going to see 2016 Trump voters not vote for him this time. Several people I know have expressed buyers remorse about voting for him in 2016. Considering that most people don’t like to publicly admit they are wrong, I imagine there are many more people like that who just won’t admit to it.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:55 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
CubinNY wrote:
NonProfitCow wrote:I call bull horsefeathers on that notion.

I'm in on that too. There is not a large proportion of people who didn't vote in 2016 and are inexplicably going to vote for Trump after 4 years of a horsefeathers show and 200,000 deaths from COVID.


Yep. I don’t see it. If anything you’re going to see 2016 Trump voters not vote for him this time. Several people I know have expressed buyers remorse about voting for him in 2016. Considering that most people don’t like to publicly admit they are wrong, I imagine there are many more people like that who just won’t admit to it.


Same here, just don't see why experts,etc.keep trying to temper the increased turnout, things are horsefeathers up, most people understand they are and know why they are and, know voting can help remove the element that lead to this horsefeathers show.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Thu Oct 22, 2020 1:57 pm

Perhaps this belongs in the music thread because it is a catchy tune. Nick is one of my favorite treasures I found at the landfill that is twitter.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby sneakypower » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:13 pm

gflore34 wrote:After all the votes have been legally counted, they're all legitimate, and Biden has been elected by a significant margin popular and EC, Trump' going to resort to saying only those that were cast for him count, isn't he? Of course, it won't mean anything but, that's all he'll have, his last play.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 2:38 pm

gflore34 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
CubinNY wrote:I'm in on that too. There is not a large proportion of people who didn't vote in 2016 and are inexplicably going to vote for Trump after 4 years of a horsefeathers show and 200,000 deaths from COVID.


Yep. I don’t see it. If anything you’re going to see 2016 Trump voters not vote for him this time. Several people I know have expressed buyers remorse about voting for him in 2016. Considering that most people don’t like to publicly admit they are wrong, I imagine there are many more people like that who just won’t admit to it.


Same here, just don't see why experts,etc.keep trying to temper the increased turnout, things are horsefeathers up, most people understand they are and know why they are and, know voting can help remove the element that lead to this horsefeathers show.

I think its tempered because in the last 4 elections we're already at a near high point of voter turnout over the past century+. The 30 years preceding the past 16 were a historic low point in voter turnout. So any turnout is very likely to be working on the margins. For instance, maybe 60% to 62 or 63%.

http://www.electproject.org/national-1789-present
When you look at the chart, the most interesting part is that midterm elections lagged behind participation in presidential elections. Our midterm election participation rate the past 20 years lagged even as our presidential participation rate went from low-mid 50%s to the low 60%s, it never returned to a level like the mid 20th century rates... until 2018. So perhaps the outstanding question is if that midterm participation rate represents a increase in overall participation, which will cause a historically huge voter turnout number, or it just represents an increase for those who are already likely presidential voters who finally took interest in the midterms. I could see why the experts would temper the latter and assume its the former.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Oct 22, 2020 3:25 pm

Again, for emphasis because of the crybaby right wing horsefeathers.

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby bukie » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:20 pm

Trump is a toddler.


And because in real life, there is no such thing as satire anymore:
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Brian » Thu Oct 22, 2020 4:33 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 5:44 pm

UK wrote:Even this stupidity amazes me with this administration...



My wife suggested looking at page 46 probably says - I hope Biden wins. Does his campaign want him to lose? Can't imagine any one thinking this was a good idea. On the other hand, if he's reelected, it's spot on.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby stitchface » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:13 pm

I'm so tired of people who vote Republican claiming to be Christian. You're just a hypocrite.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:25 pm

stitchface wrote:I'm so tired of people who vote Republican claiming to be Christian. You're just a hypocrite.

Yes, the pro-life mantra is what burns me the most. They don't want to fund public education, healthcare, or other social programs. And most of all they don't want anyone asking them how they can be prolife and hold those opinions. It's also uniquely an American perspective.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby SeldomSeen » Thu Oct 22, 2020 6:45 pm

I don't know a thing about Steve Schmidt, and it's likely I'd hate him in real life, but he's damned good at the twitter takedown.

(For the little to nothing it's worth)


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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:19 pm

I continue to ponder the GOP messaging I grew up on lauding "personal responsibility" and "victimhood and grievance are diseases" while reading more whining from GOP'ers how they were forced to do things they otherwise would not have done (turned to white nationalism and religious extremism) and being discriminated against (....by being under the same rules as everyone else).

I continue to await with baited breath the promised Conservative screeds (yep, also from #nevertrump'ers) laying the blame for hyper partisanship at the feet of liberals for daring to demand things like the end of racism and health care.

Also, a message to any self-identifying centrists who claim to despise Trump, but can't get themselves to vote for Biden because you just can't bear his policy proposals: horsefeathers YOU

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:49 pm

SeldomSeen wrote:I don't know a thing about Steve Schmidt, and it's likely I'd hate him in real life, but he's damned good at the twitter takedown.

(For the little to nothing it's worth)



You have to click on the thread to see the best parts
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:45 pm

I don’t know, Steve Schmidt often sounds like he’s had several bourbons and goes on these Twitter rages. I guess if you have that much evil in your heart it’s bound to show itself in social media meltdowns.

There was a guy last week who made a harmless joke on Twitter, something like “Great work! I can go back to hating you after the election”. Him and Rick Wilson pile on the guy in a tirade for like half an hour. Awful people can do good things, but at the end of the day they’re still awful.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:06 pm

Re: earlier discussion on voter turnout


Read tge whole thread. He mentions the turnout project is a "side project" that doesn't directly impact the forecasting model.

Also this:
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby abuck1220 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:32 am

as an incumbent, you know you’ve had a wildly successful first term when your closing argument is “BUT HIS SON’S EMAILS.”
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:18 am

Muting the mics has fixed 90% of the problems from the first debate. This is actually almost watchable
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby UMFan83 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:43 am

I don’t like how this is going
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