The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:12 pm

Brian wrote:


Needs 70.8%, which is just less than 3 points below 2.8:1
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby SouthSideRyan » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:13 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
David wrote:https://twitter.com/AlexDiPrato/status/1324044709812199425?s=20


71.8% needed


AKA the *exact* percentage that Fulton county has had so far.


All ballots or mail-in only?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:14 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
71.8% needed


AKA the *exact* percentage that Fulton county has had so far.


All ballots or mail-in only?


All, I presume: https://apps.npr.org/elections20-intera ... tates/GA/P
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:14 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
That's what scares me. It doesn’t even have to be Trump after this. Just teach Tom Cotton to tell the do-nothing Socialists to horsefeathers off and people will ooh and aah at hos tough he is.

Well to me its clear they shouldn't go for a Tom Cotton type. Those generic ass folks are great for carrying Trump's water, but they will probably do better with another celebrity honestly.


Nope. This election should have shattered the myth that there are any kind of real differences in the Republican voting bloc. The tribalism has been driven so deep that they'll vote for anyone with an R. Just toss out some little Deep State warnings and swear and the average GOPer is all things to all Republicans.


is it possible that people's frustrations with lockdowns and associating that with democrats might have motivated a flukish turnout/stubborn digging-in-heels of a lot of republicans who might have otherwise sat this one out?
Last edited by David on Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:28 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Brian » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:14 pm

Brian wrote:


I thought this was not great news, but a comment to this said if the rest are 2.8-1, it would be Biden +50k... and 2.8-1 seems pretty safe right?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:16 pm

Brian wrote:
Brian wrote:


I thought this was not great news, but a comment to this said if the rest are 2.8-1, it would be Biden +50k... and 2.8-1 seems pretty safe right?

I also assume that is before any late-arriving ballots are counted, which we hopefully don't have to rely on.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:20 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
That's what scares me. It doesn’t even have to be Trump after this. Just teach Tom Cotton to tell the do-nothing Socialists to horsefeathers off and people will ooh and aah at hos tough he is.

Well to me its clear they shouldn't go for a Tom Cotton type. Those generic ass folks are great for carrying Trump's water, but they will probably do better with another celebrity honestly.


Nope. This election should have shattered the myth that there are any kind of real differences in the Republican voting bloc. The tribalism has been driven so deep that they'll vote for anyone with an R. Just toss out some little Deep State warnings and swear and the average GOPer is all things to all Republicans.

I mean the idea that partisan tribalism is strong as hell isn't a controversial take. And it's largely true on the D side, especially if they're drawn out with enthusiasm against the Republican.

Now if they don't recruit an outsider, yea maybe Cotton and Hawley and whoever will have a battle to see who does the best Trump impression, but a outsider who's comfortable in front of the camera will destroy them like when Trump did it to Rubio when he fought back.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:26 pm

David wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:Well to me its clear they shouldn't go for a Tom Cotton type. Those generic ass folks are great for carrying Trump's water, but they will probably do better with another celebrity honestly.


Nope. This election should have shattered the myth that there are any kind of real differences in the Republican voting bloc. The tribalism has been driven so deep that they'll vote for anyone with an R. Just toss out some little Deep State warnings and swear and the average GOPer is all things to all Republicans.


it it possible that peoples frustrations with lockdowns and associating that with democrats might have motivated a flukish turnout/stubborn digging in heels of a lot of republicans who might have otherwise sat this one out?


100%. That and the pearl clutching about BLM motivated many Republicans IMO. I feel fairly sourced on this since I live amongst these people. Many in my peer group are Republicans who are professionally educated and aren’t fans at all of Trump’s lack of decorum and horrid rhetoric.

So in a solidly Republican state like Mississippi it would be quite easy to sit this one out, but a lot of them seemed to get pissy about Covid and the unrest in the streets. So if the misinformation on those topics motivated educated Republicans then I can only imagine how much it inspired the mouth breathers.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:28 pm

I don't see anything that is going to swing Wisconsin or Michigan back to Trump. Assuming a win in Nevada, that means we are down to holding onto the lead in Arizona, winning Pennsylvania, or making up the deficit in Georgia. With Georgia still a toss-up at best, what is more likely at this point - winning Arizona or winning Pennsylvania?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Soul » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:30 pm

soccer10k wrote:
David wrote:


Is this good news for getting the other Senate race there into a runoff also? If Purdue goes under 50% that goes to a runoff, right?


I tend to think so, yes.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby abuck1220 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:31 pm

OleMissCub wrote: Republicans who are professionally educated and aren’t fans at all of Trump’s lack of decorum and horrid rhetoric.


yeah, i hear that a lot in my upper middle class white bubble, and i think it's BS. always goes something like "i don't like trump's demeanor, BUT we can't have a socialist communist deep state radical left president." of course the person they're "scared" of is a 78 year old white guy from delaware that has been a moderate politician for 40 years. so they either a) actually DO like trump (and his demeanor or whatever) or b) they're stupid (which probably also means they like trump).

"sure i don't like trump spouting insane conspiracy theories that damage the very fabric of democracy, but i also don't want my family murdered by antifa" is some horse horsefeathers that i am very sick of hearing from people that claim to be reasonable moderates or whatever. no, you're a right wing loon.
Last edited by abuck1220 on Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:32 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:I don't see anything that is going to swing Wisconsin or Michigan back to Trump. Assuming a win in Nevada, that means we are down to holding onto the lead in Arizona, winning Pennsylvania, or making up the deficit in Georgia. With Georgia still a toss-up at best, what is more likely at this point - winning Arizona or winning Pennsylvania?

Fox Dial seems pretty set on calling AZ still. So I'd say that's still the most likely path. Based on MI and WI margins, I think PA will likely be under a point.
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/ ... lity-dials
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Soul » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:35 pm

abuck1220 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote: Republicans who are professionally educated and aren’t fans at all of Trump’s lack of decorum and horrid rhetoric.


yeah, i hear that a lot in my upper middle class white bubble, and i think it's BS. always goes something like "i don't like trump's demeanor, BUT we can't have a socialist communist deep state radical left president." of course the person they're "scared" of is a 78 year old white guy from delaware that has been a moderate politician for 40 years. so they either a) actually DO like trump (and his demeanor or whatever) or b) they're stupid (which probably also means they like trump).

"sure i don't like trump spouting insane conspiracy theories that damage the very fabric of democracy, but i also don't want my family murdered by antifa" is some horse horsefeathers that i am very sick of hearing.


Reads like "yeah I went and got a degree but I routinely let my irrational fears overcome logic and reason."
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:35 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:I don't see anything that is going to swing Wisconsin or Michigan back to Trump. Assuming a win in Nevada, that means we are down to holding onto the lead in Arizona, winning Pennsylvania, or making up the deficit in Georgia. With Georgia still a toss-up at best, what is more likely at this point - winning Arizona or winning Pennsylvania?


Both are happening, so equally likely.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:36 pm



Kushner is on the case rather than a real lawyer, so I think we're good on the chicanery front
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Brian » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:36 pm

Poor Todd Ricketts wants money for lawyers

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Soul » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:37 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
Irrelevant Dude wrote:I don't see anything that is going to swing Wisconsin or Michigan back to Trump. Assuming a win in Nevada, that means we are down to holding onto the lead in Arizona, winning Pennsylvania, or making up the deficit in Georgia. With Georgia still a toss-up at best, what is more likely at this point - winning Arizona or winning Pennsylvania?

Fox Dial seems pretty set on calling AZ still. So I'd say that's still the most likely path. Based on MI and WI margins, I think PA will likely be under a point.
https://www.foxnews.com/elections/2020/ ... lity-dials


It's got to be AZ simply because PA is such a mystery right now.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Soul » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:40 pm

I wouldn't have thought it but maybe I should have: the rhetoric is trending decidedly towards the 1950's:

There's Chicanery happening, here.

I'm calling Shenanigans!

Oh what a bunch of Malarkey!
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Derwood » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:40 pm

What's the hold up in AZ? They came out of the gates with like 70% reporting immediately, but have been stuck ~80% for 15 hours now
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:42 pm

Bertz wrote:https://twitter.com/Santucci/status/1324055072670703616?s=19

Kushner is on the case rather than a real lawyer, so I think we're good on the chicanery front


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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bryant's Disco Ball » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:44 pm

Can people explain betting to me? Biden was -500 on Bovada 40 minutes ago and now is -300. If there is that much money coming in on the con man, am I supposed to be scared?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Bertz » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:45 pm

Derwood wrote:What's the hold up in AZ? They came out of the gates with like 70% reporting immediately, but have been stuck ~80% for 15 hours now


I saw something about more results coming at 9 pm tonight, not sure if that's EST or local. I'd assume that'll be the rest, and they decided to do that instead of counting piecemeal?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:46 pm

Bryant's Disco Ball wrote:Can people explain betting to me? Biden was -500 on Bovada 40 minutes ago and now is -300. If there is that much money coming in on the con man, am I supposed to be scared?

Just step away from the betting markets.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:55 pm

abuck1220 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote: Republicans who are professionally educated and aren’t fans at all of Trump’s lack of decorum and horrid rhetoric.


yeah, i hear that a lot in my upper middle class white bubble, and i think it's BS. always goes something like "i don't like trump's demeanor, BUT we can't have a socialist communist deep state radical left president." of course the person they're "scared" of is a 78 year old white guy from delaware that has been a moderate politician for 40 years. so they either a) actually DO like trump (and his demeanor or whatever) or b) they're stupid (which probably also means they like trump).

"sure i don't like trump spouting insane conspiracy theories that damage the very fabric of democracy, but i also don't want my family murdered by antifa" is some horse horsefeathers that i am very sick of hearing from people that claim to be reasonable moderates or whatever. no, you're a right wing loon.



I think it's inertia/risk aversion. If you have more to lose from your current way of life, you're willing to put up with more nonsense if it doesn't impact you in particular. Trump is so much of a chaos agent that people changed their mind on how much he keeps things 'normal' or 'stable', hence Trump's support falling off in the suburbs in particular. You can call that stupid and not really be wrong, but I think a lot of assumptions in this vein on the internet round to 'they actually just love Trump' and I don't think that's all that accurate.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby David » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:03 pm

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