CyHawk_Cub wrote:
The Politics Thread
Re: The Politics Thread
Ro Khanna better be one of the two. I also like Xavier Becerra.
CyHawk_Cub wrote:
Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).
Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.
The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.
If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.
On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.
CubinNY wrote:A Republican Senator not named Romney (James Lankford) said if Biden doesn't get access to intelligence briefings by Friday he is going to step in and give them to Biden.
CyHawk_Cub wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:It would be super on-brand for life in general if the Democrats managed to actually flip the Senate in 2022, but lose the House at the same time:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/re ... -for-2022/Although we don’t yet know the winners of some House races, we can already look ahead to the 2022 midterms and see a fairly straightforward path for the GOP to capture the House. Midterm elections historically go well for the party that’s not in the White House, and the out-of-power party is especially likely to do well in the House, since every seat is up for election (the Senate is a more complicated story).
Since the end of World War II, the presidential party has lost an average of 27 House seats in midterm elections, as the chart below shows. No matter how many seats Democrats end up with after 2020’s election — at this point, they will probably end up somewhere in the low 220s — a loss of that magnitude would easily be enough for Republicans to retake the House.The recent history of midterms in a Democratic president’s first term seems especially promising for the GOP, too. Following Bill Clinton’s election in 1992, Democrats lost more than 50 seats in 1994, and after Barack Obama won the presidency in 2008, Democrats lost more than 60 seats.
If Democrats had added five to 10 seats this year, they could have survived a 20-seat loss in the midterms. Instead, Republicans will probably need to win fewer than 10 seats to gain a slender majority in 2022.
On top of this, Republicans could very well benefit from the new district lines that will be drawn ahead of the 2022 midterm elections. The GOP is set to fully control redistricting for about two-fifths of all House seats, while Democrats will only hold sway over one-tenth of them, with the remaining seats are in states with divided governments or where redistricting is done by a commission system. The Republican line-drawing advantage should help the party draw favorable maps that could help the GOP win more seats than we might otherwise expect.
Soul wrote:profisme wrote:Soul wrote:She's not that dumb. Nobody could be. That's purely a daughter wanting to please daddy. Because she has to live with him long after this is over.
You've seen him right? President 8-Piece Crispy Chicken Combo? Saying "long after this is over" might be a stretch.
Hahah.
The easiest way to get him out of the White House is put a Big Mac on the front porch, then lock the door behind him.
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:horsefeathers the GOP. The whole damn GOP.
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:horsefeathers the GOP. The whole damn GOP.
A postal worker whose allegation of ballot-tampering was at the center of Republican efforts to challenge the outcome of the presidential election has admitted to investigators that Project Veritas actually penned the affidavit laying out his claims.
Hopkins told investigators not only that his affidavit was written by Project Veritas but that he wasn’t even entirely sure of what the group had included in it because he was in “so much shock I wasn’t paying that much attention to what they were telling me.”
The Logan wrote:Oh, you don't horsefeathering say...
https://www.thedailybeast.com/usps-staf ... m?ref=homeA postal worker whose allegation of ballot-tampering was at the center of Republican efforts to challenge the outcome of the presidential election has admitted to investigators that Project Veritas actually penned the affidavit laying out his claims.Hopkins told investigators not only that his affidavit was written by Project Veritas but that he wasn’t even entirely sure of what the group had included in it because he was in “so much shock I wasn’t paying that much attention to what they were telling me.”
Derwood wrote:Trump's new claim is that Dominion (data firm??) deleted 2.1 million Trump votes, and switched 210,000 in PA from Trump to Biden
All with zero proof, of course
Tim wrote:Derwood wrote:Trump's new claim is that Dominion (data firm??) deleted 2.1 million Trump votes, and switched 210,000 in PA from Trump to Biden
All with zero proof, of course
Right. Debunked.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/11/tech ... e=Homepage
David wrote:is today finally like republicans break rank day?
Derwood wrote:David wrote:is today finally like republicans break rank day?
That day is never.
Even after Trump goes, his influence over Republican politics will stretch on until he's cold in the ground. They will stick with him forever
The Logan wrote:
It's a long shot, but I really hope the Democrats are able to reintroduce the Fairness Doctrine, or something similar.
Ding Dong Johnson wrote:horsefeathers the GOP. The whole damn GOP.
He has spent much of his days on the phone, describing his strong view the election had been stolen from him and his disbelief at losing to Biden. But throughout his conversations this week, Trump has appeared cognizant that his legal efforts aren't likely to reverse the results of the contest and that he will depart the White House in January.
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