Politics & Current Events

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubColtPacer » Mon Sep 26, 2016 8:59 pm

The biggest key as far as undecideds is more the two major parties trying to convince the third party vote to come back to their camp. That's where the much bigger uncertainty in this election comes compared to prior ones. As Silver said in the article yesterday, four years ago the two major parties had around 94 percent of the vote committed at this point in the polls. This year it's 82 percent. And when there's only 1.4 points between the camps as the current 538 model shows, it won't take much of that vote to shift the odds by quite a bit.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby jersey cubs fan » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:00 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:03 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:The biggest key as far as undecideds is more the two major parties trying to convince the third party vote to come back to their camp. That's where the much bigger uncertainty in this election comes compared to prior ones. As Silver said in the article yesterday, four years ago the two major parties had around 94 percent of the vote committed at this point in the polls. This year it's 82 percent. And when there's only 1.4 points between the camps as the current 538 model shows, it won't take much of that vote to shift the odds by quite a bit.


Voting third party isn't being undecided.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:39 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
CubColtPacer wrote:The biggest key as far as undecideds is more the two major parties trying to convince the third party vote to come back to their camp. That's where the much bigger uncertainty in this election comes compared to prior ones. As Silver said in the article yesterday, four years ago the two major parties had around 94 percent of the vote committed at this point in the polls. This year it's 82 percent. And when there's only 1.4 points between the camps as the current 538 model shows, it won't take much of that vote to shift the odds by quite a bit.


Voting third party isn't being undecided.

Well sure, but probably as a rule actual third party votes underperform polls, so with more third party polling, the impact of late breaking deciders (or whatever the cause of that difference) will be a much larger portion of the difference than normal.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Mon Sep 26, 2016 9:49 pm

I'm blacked out from the Cubs game, and I already hate-watched the primary debates, so I'm definitely watching tonight
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:03 pm

Pretty sure I'm the only one here that'll be watching the Saints lose instead of watching the debates
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby badger » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:07 pm

Pretty sure there's no need for me to watch tonight, as it's only going to make me MORE angry at the idiots voting for Drumpf. I'll watch Cubs baseball.

He has such a low bar that if he doesn't trip on his face, the stupid ass media will say he "came off as presidential".
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Smack » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:20 pm

I can't wait, I hope it's glorious. I'll be sad if it's a normal boring debate.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:22 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Pretty sure I'm the only one here that'll be watching the Saints lose instead of watching the debates

What's up?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubInOK » Mon Sep 26, 2016 10:58 pm

I've been looking for this scene all day.

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Mon Sep 26, 2016 11:46 pm

Trump v Hillary

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Tue Sep 27, 2016 12:05 am

OleMissCub wrote:Pretty sure I'm the only one here that'll be watching the Saints lose instead of watching the debates

Nah, I'll be watching that too
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:26 am

Smack wrote:I can't wait, I hope it's glorious. I'll be sad if it's a normal boring debate.

I think that you are safe there. This is a riot.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby UK » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:26 am

Lester Holt is terrible at this.
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1) Make election day a federal holiday.
2) Enact National Popular Vote.

https://www.nationalpopularvote.com/

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby SouthSideRyan » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:26 am

Fighting ISIS your entire adult life?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Omar » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:27 am

SouthSideRyan wrote:Fighting ISIS your entire adult life?


"go to the please fact checkers get to work"

actual quote
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Omar » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:29 am

Hillary Clinton is actually cool, calm, and collected. Trump is going insane.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:32 am

Omar wrote:Hillary Clinton is actually cool, calm, and collected. Trump is going insane.


Yeah but that only panders to his likely voters IMO.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:36 am

This tax speech she's giving is getting WAY under his skin.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:38 am

His bullying routine isn't working tonight like it did in the GOP debates. He's really panicking
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby weis21 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:39 am

did he really just call the US a "third world country"?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby badger » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:41 am

Twitter said he bragged about not paying taxes? For real?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby USSoccer » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:42 am

Did Lester Holt disapparate at some point?
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby weis21 » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:43 am

badger wrote:Twitter said he bragged about not paying taxes? For real?

yep. said it made him "smart"
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby USSoccer » Tue Sep 27, 2016 1:45 am

Btw I love that he used "bigly" like it was a real word
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