Politics & Current Events

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 67793
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 4310
x 5525

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Jan 26, 2016 3:52 pm

Banedon wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Banedon wrote:But, I don't understand the goal of the commercial in the first place. These are primaries/caucuses...not a general election. Is the goal to get Hillary the nomination? I mean...presuming you think that ad "attacked" Bernie in any way.


I don't doubt for a second that the Republicans would much rather face Sanders in the general election than Clinton. They've seemingly been talking him up in a very reverse psychology-kinda way over the last week or so.


I think that's a mistake though. In a general election, I think Bernie is gonna seem ridiculously sane compared to ANY of the Republicans, and he doesn't have nearly the baggage that Clinton does other than "he's too librul!". I know, you're convinced that Bernie is gonna crushed in a general, but I'm very much not. I think Clinton is more of a hurdle than the general election.


Clinton is Clinton; they've been through this multiple times. Her opponents have already been trying for the last year to sideswipe her and it's done little to her; Clinton and co. have done more damaged to themselves in how they don't know how to fight back against in-party rivals. General election projections mean squat at this point.

Sanders is a good guy, and he's right a lot, but his momentum will evaporate when it's him vs. the GOP. Think on a superficial level; he's a disheveled, rambling grandpa who doesn't even bother to form any kind of defense against how they'll pound him into the ground as a socialist. Yeah, we can hear what he's actually saying, but he's a tough sell to undecided voters. Clinton has her baggage, but she is what she is.

Mainly I'm terrified of the idea of the Republicans being able to nominate the next three Supreme Court Justices. That said, Sanders still isn't going to get it. He still has little traction outside of young white voters and has almost no party support. This isn't Obama part 2.
0 x

User avatar
Banedon
Curse You!
Posts: 62916
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 9:36 pm
Location: Kidding Myself
x 2366
x 2571

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Tue Jan 26, 2016 4:46 pm

0 x
Image

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 67793
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 4310
x 5525

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:20 pm

Fingers crossed. Even 538 has been thrown off its game by how wonky this election season has been; they're to the point where basically every other article is essentially them throwing up their hands and saying "wait and see."
0 x

Ryne Ween
All-Star
Posts: 2215
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:43 pm
x 1
x 16

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Ryne Ween » Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:24 pm

Reflecting on trump and how we have gotten here. All these years prominent politicians have gone to great lengths to hide from their wealth. Like there was a self evidence that being wealthy made you unlike the common folk and thus less electable. Like Edwards being the son of a mill worker or Romney strapping his dog to the top of his station wagon and fighting to withhold his 1099s.

Seems like this was all a huge miscalculation and archaism.

Trump presents himself in a very authentic and genuine way. He's got this form of credibility by being a famous billionaire but he also looks like a doofus. I think these are the factors that are making his form of populism so much more effective than everybody else's.

Unlike these other people, despite his wealth and fame, he seems like a normal person compared to these other guys. I think this is going a long way.
0 x

User avatar
jersey cubs fan
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 55044
Joined: Mon Apr 09, 2007 6:38 pm
Location: Hoboken squat cobbler
x 1235
x 3788

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:26 pm

Ryne Ween wrote:Unlike these other people, despite his wealth and fame, he seems like a normal person compared to these other guys. I think this is going a long way.

only a crazy person would think Trump looks like a normal person compared to anybody.


The republicans have been pandering to the worst people in the country for a while now and those terrible humans now think republicans aren't republican enough. They realized that trying to hide their ignorance and racism didn't help them and now think that being openly ignorant and racist is the way to go.
0 x
longhotsummer wrote:I realize now, any opposing viewpoint, will not be tolerated.

User avatar
Banedon
Curse You!
Posts: 62916
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 9:36 pm
Location: Kidding Myself
x 2366
x 2571

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:31 pm

Ryne Ween wrote:Reflecting on trump and how we have gotten here. All these years prominent politicians have gone to great lengths to hide from their wealth. Like there was a self evidence that being wealthy made you unlike the common folk and thus less electable. Like Edwards being the son of a mill worker or Romney strapping his dog to the top of his station wagon and fighting to withhold his 1099s.

Seems like this was all a huge miscalculation and archaism.

Trump presents himself in a very authentic and genuine way. He's got this form of credibility by being a famous billionaire but he also looks like a doofus. I think these are the factors that are making his form of populism so much more effective than everybody else's.

Unlike these other people, despite his wealth and fame, he seems like a normal person compared to these other guys. I think this is going a long way.


Edwards was trying to appeal to the left, not the right. And he failed because he cheated on his wife, not because he didn't embrace his wealth. And Romney failed because of his 47% comment...which if anything was him embracing his wealth.

Trump isn't some model for others to follow. He's purposely aiming to appeal to the dumbest, most racist, jingoistic, ass-backwards people in the country. And it turns out, that there's a whole lot of those people in the Republican party. Those people aren't voting for him because he's rich (or because he's so genuine and authentic).

The only way his richness matters is that it's helping him to not have to rely on the GOP establishment to back his campaign.
0 x
Image

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 67793
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 4310
x 5525

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:40 pm

It's a LOT of chickens coming home to roost for the Republicans. Ryne did touch on something right when he said Trump is willfully a doofus and popular because of it; this is the end result of years and years of anti-intellectualism and "ivory tower" nonsense fearmongering. There this genuine fear among many Americans that someone who appears or sounds "too smart" is hiding something or trying to get away with something. Trump is an idiot, but it's clear even he's playing that up a lot more to appeal to a certain segment of voters.
0 x

Ryne Ween
All-Star
Posts: 2215
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:43 pm
x 1
x 16

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Ryne Ween » Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:45 pm

There have been plenty of islamophobic and racist republican presidential candidates, trump is not unique in that regard. He's unique in that he is captivating the political world unlike anybody I've ever seen despite an overwhelming amount of reasons that he would be a terrible general election candidate and disastrous president.
0 x

Ryne Ween
All-Star
Posts: 2215
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:43 pm
x 1
x 16

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Ryne Ween » Tue Jan 26, 2016 5:48 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:It's a LOT of chickens coming home to roost for the Republicans. Ryne did touch on something right when he said Trump is willfully a doofus and popular because of it; this is the end result of years and years of anti-intellectualism and "ivory tower" nonsense fearmongering. There this genuine fear among many Americans that someone who appears or sounds "too smart" is hiding something or trying to get away with something. Trump is an idiot, but it's clear even he's playing that up a lot more to appeal to a certain segment of voters.


I guess that the credibility of the
0 x

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 67793
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 4310
x 5525

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:10 pm

Ryne Ween wrote:There have been plenty of islamophobic and racist republican presidential candidates, trump is not unique in that regard. He's unique in that he is captivating the political world unlike anybody I've ever seen despite an overwhelming amount of reasons that he would be a terrible general election candidate and disastrous president.


Well, yeah, because this is the end result of the type of rhetoric the Republicans have been trafficking in for about 25 years.
0 x

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 63950
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 305
x 967

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:12 pm

Cruz and Trump are the two-headed Frankenstein's Monster of the Tea Party. Reap, sow, etc.
0 x
Image

User avatar
seanimal
stats enthousiast
Posts: 9073
Joined: Thu Apr 20, 2006 12:56 am
Location: the final frontier
x 230
x 183

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby seanimal » Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:20 pm

Derwood wrote:Reap, sow, etc.


*not necessarily in that order
0 x

biittner77
Superstar
Posts: 10074
Joined: Wed Mar 05, 2003 12:10 am
Location: Maryland's Eastern Shore
x 5
x 110

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby biittner77 » Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:41 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Ryne Ween wrote:Unlike these other people, despite his wealth and fame, he seems like a normal person compared to these other guys. I think this is going a long way.

only a crazy person would think Trump looks like a normal person compared to anybody.


How about Sarah Palin? After her "performance" the other day, you could make the argument that they sent her up there, possibly drunk, to make Trump look less insane.
0 x
snoodmonger wrote:Schwarber dong was as swaggy a dong as you're gonna see, fellas. If he'd dropped the bat cleanly, it would've jumped up and flipped itself.

User avatar
WrigleyField 22
Superstar
Posts: 10666
Joined: Tue Nov 25, 2003 10:48 pm
Location: hnderstabxcwhsg
x 884
x 282

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Tue Jan 26, 2016 6:58 pm

I still do the believe Trump actually wants to be President or has any shot. Some establishment candidate will emerge.
0 x
Image

User avatar
Banedon
Curse You!
Posts: 62916
Joined: Wed Jun 18, 2003 9:36 pm
Location: Kidding Myself
x 2366
x 2571

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Banedon » Tue Jan 26, 2016 7:48 pm

John Rocker has endorsed Donald Trump.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/01/26/john- ... president/
0 x
Image

User avatar
kujay
Superstar
Posts: 19553
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2005 1:46 pm
Location: Kansas City
x 3
x 16

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby kujay » Tue Jan 26, 2016 7:55 pm

I love that The Daily Caller is hyping this as "exclusive." What a grab by those guys.

Rocker and Falwell today -- big day for Trump.
0 x
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. No more, no less.

Ryne Ween
All-Star
Posts: 2215
Joined: Wed Aug 12, 2009 8:43 pm
x 1
x 16

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Ryne Ween » Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:17 pm

Ryne Ween wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:It's a LOT of chickens coming home to roost for the Republicans. Ryne did touch on something right when he said Trump is willfully a doofus and popular because of it; this is the end result of years and years of anti-intellectualism and "ivory tower" nonsense fearmongering. There this genuine fear among many Americans that someone who appears or sounds "too smart" is hiding something or trying to get away with something. Trump is an idiot, but it's clear even he's playing that up a lot more to appeal to a certain segment of voters.


I guess that the credibility of the


I was trying to say that trump can look and act stupid but then contrive intelligence and success at the same time via his long, sustained run as a real estate developer and wildly successful show business career. He's got a dichotomy that previous Larry the cable guy politician routines have not enjoyed.

I don't know how the hell he is pulling in any of the evangelicals. He's basically the human personification of the bad guys from the Jesus at the Temple scene. Literally the only time Jesus got pissed in his whole life was at trump.
0 x

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 67793
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 4310
x 5525

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Jan 26, 2016 8:30 pm

Ryne Ween wrote:I was trying to say that trump can look and act stupid but then contrive intelligence and success at the same time via his long, sustained run as a real estate developer and wildly successful show business career. He's got a dichotomy that previous Larry the cable guy politician routines have not enjoyed


You just described the false perception Trump supporters have of him, not what he actually is. His supporters are hinged mostly on how he "says it like it is" and how it is shaking up "the establishment."

I don't know how the hell he is pulling in any of the evangelicals. He's basically the human personification of the bad guys from the Jesus at the Temple scene. Literally the only time Jesus got pissed in his whole life was at trump.


Only in the last week; he's seeing a bump right now due to Falwell's endorsement. As with pretty much every Republican demographic, he's leading mostly because so many supporters are spread out over the remaining candidates. Get it down to him vs. one other candidate and it looks a lot different.
0 x

User avatar
kujay
Superstar
Posts: 19553
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2005 1:46 pm
Location: Kansas City
x 3
x 16

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby kujay » Tue Jan 26, 2016 9:43 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Ryne Ween wrote:I was trying to say that trump can look and act stupid but then contrive intelligence and success at the same time via his long, sustained run as a real estate developer and wildly successful show business career. He's got a dichotomy that previous Larry the cable guy politician routines have not enjoyed


You just described the false perception Trump supporters have of him, not what he actually is. His supporters are hinged mostly on how he "says it like it is" and how it is shaking up "the establishment."

I don't know how the hell he is pulling in any of the evangelicals. He's basically the human personification of the bad guys from the Jesus at the Temple scene. Literally the only time Jesus got pissed in his whole life was at trump.


Only in the last week; he's seeing a bump right now due to Falwell's endorsement. As with pretty much every Republican demographic, he's leading mostly because so many supporters are spread out over the remaining candidates. Get it down to him vs. one other candidate and it looks a lot different.


Right but it's very unlikely to get to that point for a long time -- after a large number of the primaries. So as it stands, especially if he wins Iowa, Trump is on track to get a plurality of delegates. Cruz won't drop out because he thinks Trump isn't for real. Rubio and Bush won't drop out because they have a lot of money and backing. Kasich won't drop out because he can't believe there's no room for a semi-reasonable candidate. So what you're suggesting is months and months away. By then it's too late.
0 x
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. No more, no less.

User avatar
SouthSideRyan
is ELL
Posts: 48626
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:08 am
Location: Chicago Loop
x 224
x 649

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby SouthSideRyan » Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:33 pm

Sheriff Joe is apparently still a thing, and he's endorsing Trump.
0 x
Exile on Waveland wrote: IU smells like poop.

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 67793
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 4310
x 5525

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:45 pm

Too late for what? There's nothing legally binding about the primaries, and no promises a la the asinine "Republican pledge" have been made guaranteeing that the voting results of the primaries will result in the candidate. Yes, obviously the symbolic nature of the primaries has changed over the last 35 years, but it's still the GOP's out; the convention is where, legally, the candidate has to be voted for. I guarantee you right now they're waiting for this play out, hoping that Trump's ground game in the primary states is as sloppy and atrocious as it seems; you only have to look to the last two presidential elections to see GOP candidates who won early while the eventual candidate performed terribly.

And the candidates don't have to actually withdraw for the field to shrink; primary votes are routinely swayed by undecided voters and people who change their mind when actually casting their vote. Take Carson, for example; it's VERY unlikely that he gets anywhere near even the lousy numbers hes getting now out of any of those polled for him who show up to vote. He's a paper tiger when it comes his numbers. Kasich is a non-factor. Bush or Rubio (likely Bush, barring a last minute miracle) will be persuaded by the party to withdraw after the first 2-3 states once they have an idea which of them is actually doing better. Then they throw their weight behind whichever of them emerges and that's likely all she wrote. Even if the preferred GOP candidate doesn't win a majority of primary states, they just have to win some for a case to be made that it'll come down to the convention if necessary.

Bottom line, the Republicans are fighting for their lives, and they're not going to just sit back and go "OH WELL!" if Trump wins several of the early primaries. That would mean they're done.
0 x

User avatar
SouthSideRyan
is ELL
Posts: 48626
Joined: Wed Sep 24, 2003 6:08 am
Location: Chicago Loop
x 224
x 649

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby SouthSideRyan » Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:54 pm

Isn't the safer play for the Rubio/Bush/Kasich group to stick around forever bleeding votes ensuring neither of the king doofuses get enough delegates to "win" in a classic primary?
0 x
Exile on Waveland wrote: IU smells like poop.

User avatar
kujay
Superstar
Posts: 19553
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2005 1:46 pm
Location: Kansas City
x 3
x 16

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby kujay » Tue Jan 26, 2016 10:57 pm

It would be scandalous for the party to turn away from Trump if he wins the requisite delegates. I would understand if they did, but you act like it's a given. That would tear down the party too -- nothing says "power to the people" like ignoring their votes.

And yes, voters can change their minds as the process goes on. But the biggest driver of those changes will be consolidating behind the person who is winning. People like to be on the winning side. The momentum Trump will have if he wins Iowa will be huge because the next few states (NH, SC) will be a walk for him.
0 x
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. No more, no less.

User avatar
kujay
Superstar
Posts: 19553
Joined: Sun Dec 04, 2005 1:46 pm
Location: Kansas City
x 3
x 16

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby kujay » Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:01 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:Isn't the safer play for the Rubio/Bush/Kasich group to stick around forever bleeding votes ensuring neither of the king doofuses get enough delegates to "win" in a classic primary?


Yes, if the party wants to boot Trump at the convention and save face, they need to keep Trump from getting that majority of delegates, whatever that is.
0 x
Just an average guy with exceptional hair. No more, no less.

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 67793
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 4310
x 5525

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Jan 26, 2016 11:06 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:Isn't the safer play for the Rubio/Bush/Kasich group to stick around forever bleeding votes ensuring neither of the king doofuses get enough delegates to "win" in a classic primary?


Nah; that just keeps it muddled. I have no doubt the party is working to make deals behind the scenes to get some of the dead weight to drop off. Kasich, Christie and Huckabee (and probably Fiorina) will bow out soon. Carson's probably too much an oblivious idiot for them to even bother, and he's honestly probably just drawing from potential Trump voters.
0 x


Return to “Social”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Derwood, soccer10k, TBS Playoffs Insider, WrigleyField 22 and 7 guests