Politics & Current Events

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:13 pm

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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:16 pm

I wasn’t super familiar with it either, but there was enough uproar about it that after a quick google search, it seemed worth posting
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:23 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:


It's not something I'd rule out happening. Especially if/when Democrats take control of Congress and GOP is relieved of their uncomfortable position of having to be in power without someone to rail against.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:25 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:


Good thing all of those shoes have been dropping, I guess.

Image
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubinNY » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:25 pm

The sleepy-eyed Jew characterization is not just from the Stormfront.

It was part of German propaganda from the 1920s and 1930s. There was a famous story of how to spot a Jew in a German Children's book written by Julius Streicher that was widely read. Streicher was executed for crimes against humanity after WW2 although he never took part in any killings that I know of. He was one of the most prominent propagandists.

So, in summary, just because we don't hear about it normally, doesn't mean the people to whom Trump was talking don't know what he was saying. Trump being openly antiemetic is one of the weirdest twists in this terrible, terrible reality show that we are all living.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Apr 23, 2018 10:37 pm

Still seems like a stretch unless you're thinking someone like Miller was pushing him to post it. Trump doesn't exactly strike me as the type to have the patience to go digging around in Nazi children's books for some forgotten dog whistles. And this is apparently the passage from the book:

“The eyelids are mostly thicker and more fleshy than ours. The Jewish look is wary and piercing. One can tell from his eyes that he is a deceitful person,” it states.


And this has apparently been the patented petty Trump nickname for Todd for years now:



This Israeli paper has a breakdown of how long he's been calling Todd that and generally how this hasn't been a tremendously common insult/stereotype, and why they don't think it was some kind of Nazi code:

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premiu ... -1.6026628

I dunno; I hate for it to sound like I'm defending the guy, since it's a stupid, ugly tweet regardless, but this seems like looking for something that isn't there. Its "just" him being a bullying clod.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby MWV » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:25 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:

George H.W. Bush was at 58% approval at the 1990 midterms. There’s not a lot of predictive power in midterm polls. Also, I think context is important. In 2010, Obama was presiding over a country just beginning to pull out of recession. The economy has performed much better during Trump’s first 2 years, and still he sits at 37%.
I’m not saying he won’t win again. It’s possible. But if those numbers show anything, it’s that he’s done little to broaden his appeal, despite a strong economy and a bunch of tax cuts.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:29 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Still seems like a stretch unless you're thinking someone like Miller was pushing him to post it. Trump doesn't exactly strike me as the type to have the patience to go digging around in Nazi children's books for some forgotten dog whistles. And this is apparently the passage from the book:

“The eyelids are mostly thicker and more fleshy than ours. The Jewish look is wary and piercing. One can tell from his eyes that he is a deceitful person,” it states.


And this has apparently been the patented petty Trump nickname for Todd for years now:



This Israeli paper has a breakdown of how long he's been calling Todd that and generally how this hasn't been a tremendously common insult/stereotype, and why they don't think it was some kind of Nazi code:

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premiu ... -1.6026628

I dunno; I hate for it to sound like I'm defending the guy, since it's a stupid, ugly tweet regardless, but this seems like looking for something that isn't there. Its "just" him being a bullying clod.

I wouldn't trust an Israeli paper I know nothing about to give me an honest assessment on a Republican's perceived bigotry.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:32 pm

MWV wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:

George H.W. Bush was at 58% approval at the 1990 midterms. There’s not a lot of predictive power in midterm polls. Also, I think context is important. In 2010, Obama was presiding over a country just beginning to pull out of recession. The economy has performed much better during Trump’s first 2 years, and still he sits at 38%.
I’m not saying he won’t win again. It’s possible. But if those numbers show anything, it’s that he’s done little to broaden his appeal, despite a strong economy and a bunch of tax cuts.

100% agree with all this, plus consider that 37%-40% is more or less Trump’s ceiling (as you sorta alluded to). 538 would call this a bad use of polling.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:48 pm

DiceMan4221 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:Still seems like a stretch unless you're thinking someone like Miller was pushing him to post it. Trump doesn't exactly strike me as the type to have the patience to go digging around in Nazi children's books for some forgotten dog whistles. And this is apparently the passage from the book:

“The eyelids are mostly thicker and more fleshy than ours. The Jewish look is wary and piercing. One can tell from his eyes that he is a deceitful person,” it states.


And this has apparently been the patented petty Trump nickname for Todd for years now:



This Israeli paper has a breakdown of how long he's been calling Todd that and generally how this hasn't been a tremendously common insult/stereotype, and why they don't think it was some kind of Nazi code:

https://www.haaretz.com/us-news/.premiu ... -1.6026628

I dunno; I hate for it to sound like I'm defending the guy, since it's a stupid, ugly tweet regardless, but this seems like looking for something that isn't there. Its "just" him being a bullying clod.

I wouldn't trust an Israeli paper I know nothing about to give me an honest assessment on a Republican's perceived bigotry.


Haaretz is a very Left-leaning paper that Netanyahu very vocally hates, if your thinking is that it might be a conservative paper who would support the Right.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Apr 23, 2018 11:56 pm

NOLA wrote:100% agree with all this, plus consider that 37%-40% is more or less Trump’s ceiling (as you sorta alluded to). 538 would call this a bad use of polling.


Nate Silver himself has also repeatedly pointed out how Trump's pretty steady hovering around 41% leaves him just barely outside the polling window that incumbent presidents have shown in recent elections where they were re-elected, so it's not something that can just be dismissed. Poll after poll shows that vast majority of Republicans back Trump, so we're somewhat worryingly more and more hinging on hoping the economy turns south to torpedo him (which unfortunately might also kick the Democrats in the dick very quickly if they swing control of the legislative and then the downturn occurs far enough into 2019 or 2020). We just keep seeing that him saying dumb/offensive things and sex scandals and money scandals don't move the needle much at this point, if at all, and the Mueller investigation is seemingly becoming yet another bizarre Trump era thing that is normalized. Barring that moving forward dramatically and all the way up to Trump and/or the economy tanking, he's worryingly got a shot.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:02 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
NOLA wrote:100% agree with all this, plus consider that 37%-40% is more or less Trump’s ceiling (as you sorta alluded to). 538 would call this a bad use of polling.


Nate Silver himself has also repeatedly pointed out how Trump's pretty steady hovering around 41% leaves him just barely outside the polling window that incumbent presidents have shown in recent elections where they were re-elected, so it's not something that can just be dismissed. Poll after poll shows that vast majority of Republicans back Trump, so we're somewhat worryingly more and more hinging on hoping the economy turns south to torpedo him (which unfortunately might also kick the Democrats in the dick very quickly if they swing control of the legislative and then the downturn occurs far enough into 2019 or 2020). We just keep seeing that him saying dumb things and sex scandals and money scandals don't move the needle much, at all, and the Mueller investigation is seemingly becoming yet another bizarre Trump era thing that is normalized. Barring that moving forward dramatically and all the way up to Trump and/or the economy tanking, he's worryingly got a shot.

Also have to factor in the Democrats electing the wrong person and the party not unifying after primaries where there’s sure to be some hurt feelings.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:10 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
NOLA wrote:100% agree with all this, plus consider that 37%-40% is more or less Trump’s ceiling (as you sorta alluded to). 538 would call this a bad use of polling.


Nate Silver himself has also repeatedly pointed out how Trump's pretty steady hovering around 41% leaves him just barely outside the polling window that incumbent presidents have shown in recent elections where they were re-elected, so it's not something that can just be dismissed. Poll after poll shows that vast majority of Republicans back Trump, so we're somewhat worryingly more and more hinging on hoping the economy turns south to torpedo him (which unfortunately might also kick the Democrats in the dick very quickly if they swing control of the legislative and then the downturn occurs far enough into 2019 or 2020). We just keep seeing that him saying dumb things and sex scandals and money scandals don't move the needle much, at all, and the Mueller investigation is seemingly becoming yet another bizarre Trump era thing that is normalized. Barring that moving forward dramatically and all the way up to Trump and/or the economy tanking, he's worryingly got a shot.

Also have to factor in the Democrats electing the wrong person and the party not unifying after primaries where there’s sure to be some hurt feelings.

To Sofa’s point, I agree, but polling is different than voting, and the enthusiasm gap ain’t getting better anytime soon. The atmosphere is basically perfect for Trump to poll well right now. War, a weaker economy, a direct link in the Mueller investigation and he has nowhere to go but down, polling or turnout in an election.

To CW11’s point, I can’t help but agree. Republicans fall in line, Democrats fall in love. Never underestimate the Dem’s ability to horsefeathers up an election.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:18 am

He's a Republican; he doesn't need enthusiasm on his side. If he's their guy, they'll show up. All we've seen is that Republicans will stick with the guy with the (R) no matter what; the time where some of them where making bull horsefeathers overtures about not being sure about him are dead and buried. Like you said, it comes down more to how motivated Democratic voters are to show up. And it horsefeathering sucks that we have too root for things like a horsefeathers economy to try and ensure someone this horrific isn't re-elected.

And, hell, I don't see a war getting started hurting him at all barring it going disastrously for the US right away. If anything, a relatively new ongoing, large scale military engagement close enough to the election would be the kind of thing that just emboldens Republican voters even more.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby NOLA » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:30 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:He's a Republican; he doesn't need enthusiasm on his side. If he's their guy, they'll show up. All we've seen is that Republicans will stick with the guy with the (R) no matter what; the time where some of them where making bull horsefeathers overtures about not being sure about him are dead and buried. Like you said, it comes down more to how motivated Democratic voters are to show up. And it horsefeathering sucks that we have too root for things like a horsefeathers economy to try and ensure someone this horrific isn't re-elected.

And, hell, I don't see a war getting started hurting him at all barring it going disastrously for the US right away. If anything, a relatively new ongoing, large scale military engagement close enough to the election would be the kind of thing that just emboldens Republican voters even more.

I just disagree with all of this. Hillary was a uniquely terrible nominee for the Dems in 2016 or it would not have been close. Republicans aren’t showing up this Fall and unless something unforeseen happens they won’t in 2020. You and I have argued about the existence of the undecided voter in the past, but in the absence of Hillary, those people are not voting for Trump.

As for war, this country has no appetite for that right now. The WTC got destroyed and America’s willingness to follow the Prez lasted a couple of years. Strong disagree.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby TBS Playoffs Insider » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:32 am

Sammy Sofa wrote:
TBS Playoffs Insider wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:I kinda feel like a place like Stormfront would list literally everything that could possibly be construed as an insult in that context.

Like, I'm all for calling Trump out as a hateful horsefeathers, but this seems like a reach. This is right is his dumb wheelhouse of being the less effective version of the guy from Seinfeld who says Elaine has a big head when she dumps him.


Huh? This is a pretty well-known slur


Then I just gotta plead complete ignorance, because I've been lucky enough to never come across it.

And to keep the Seinfeld thing going, am I the only one that pictures Jerry using that fake voice on the phone when his girlfriend is telling the tractor story whenever I hear about Trump calling people up and pretending to be "John Barron?"


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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:41 am

NOLA wrote:I just disagree with all of this. Hillary was a uniquely terrible nominee for the Dems in 2016 or it would not have been close. Republicans aren’t showing up this Fall and unless something unforeseen happens they won’t in 2020. You and I have argued about the existence of the undecided voter in the past, but in the absence of Hillary, those people are not voting for Trump.


This won't be 2016; he's now definitely Their Guy. The only way Republicans don't vote for him is he's not on the ballot or there's some kind of popular dark horse traditional Republican running against him.

As for war, this country has no appetite for that right now. The WTC got destroyed and America’s willingness to follow the Prez lasted a couple of years. Strong disagree.


Strongly disagree that Republicans won't at least initially back a Republican war. That said, however, I didn't bring up war in the first place because as dumb as he is, I don't see it as something he'd end up doing barring the US actually being attacked; there's no obvious "easy" target that wouldn't almost immediately turn into a debacle.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:42 am

It’s hard for me to see the electoral reaction to Trump’s presidency thus far as anything but a sign he’s going to be emphatically voted out in 2020, but maybe there’s a turnaround or some other reason to think that things will change from Democrats flipping senate seats in Alabama to Trump threading the needle again in the rust belt.

Edit: that last part reads sarcastic but it’s not
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:46 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It’s hard for me to see the electoral reaction to Trump’s presidency thus far as anything but a sign he’s going to be emphatically voted out in 2020, but maybe there’s a turnaround or some other reason to think that things will change from Democrats flipping senate seats in Alabama to Trump threading the needle again in the rust belt.


Because the national election isn't a state election, and there's all the EC garbage. And the Democrats doing really well this year could scare Republicans to cling even harder to Trump just because he's a Republican President.

Basically a lot weirder things have already happened than Trump being re-elected. He's already done the hard part, unfortunately.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:49 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It’s hard for me to see the electoral reaction to Trump’s presidency thus far as anything but a sign he’s going to be emphatically voted out in 2020, but maybe there’s a turnaround or some other reason to think that things will change from Democrats flipping senate seats in Alabama to Trump threading the needle again in the rust belt.

Oh I agree he’s almost certainly getting voted out. But there’s some things you can see making it close or him sneaking back in. The things Sofa mentioned, the Dems horsefeathering up the nominee with a horsefeathers candidate and/or infighting/not unifying. Things like the Bernie Bros being all pissed off again when he eventually runs and doesn’t get nominated and then not showing up to vote for the candidate, etc.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:50 am

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It’s hard for me to see the electoral reaction to Trump’s presidency thus far as anything but a sign he’s going to be emphatically voted out in 2020, but maybe there’s a turnaround or some other reason to think that things will change from Democrats flipping senate seats in Alabama to Trump threading the needle again in the rust belt.

Edit: that last part reads sarcastic but it’s not


It's the ebb and flow. 2018 is the counter-wave to 2016, but what if 2020 is the counter-counter wave to that? Right now, liberal voters are fired up as heck and conservatives are disinterested and beaten down. A liberal Congress is exactly what conservatives need to rally against, they need an enemy and a boogeyman.

In 2010, Republicans gained 63 House seats, 6 Senate seats and a record 680 seats in state legislatures.

By 2012, Obama was dunking on Romney.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Tue Apr 24, 2018 12:52 am

The fact that he’s childishly insulting his detractors should be cause enough for concern, but the White House has normalized it such that no one even cares
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby UK » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:18 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It’s hard for me to see the electoral reaction to Trump’s presidency thus far as anything but a sign he’s going to be emphatically voted out in 2020, but maybe there’s a turnaround or some other reason to think that things will change from Democrats flipping senate seats in Alabama to Trump threading the needle again in the rust belt.

Edit: that last part reads sarcastic but it’s not


It's the ebb and flow. 2018 is the counter-wave to 2016, but what if 2020 is the counter-counter wave to that? Right now, liberal voters are fired up as heck and conservatives are disinterested and beaten down. A liberal Congress is exactly what conservatives need to rally against, they need an enemy and a boogeyman.

In 2010, Republicans gained 63 House seats, 6 Senate seats and a record 680 seats in state legislatures.

By 2012, Obama was dunking on Romney.


I don't think the Dems controlling the House is the boogeyman the right is looking for. If it's a woman or a socialist that wins the DNC nomination, that's their boogeyman.

The Democrats more than likely have this in 2020, it's not about who they select who will energize the right, it's about who will maintain the current energy for the left that will determine the winner.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:20 am

UK wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Transmogrified Tiger wrote:It’s hard for me to see the electoral reaction to Trump’s presidency thus far as anything but a sign he’s going to be emphatically voted out in 2020, but maybe there’s a turnaround or some other reason to think that things will change from Democrats flipping senate seats in Alabama to Trump threading the needle again in the rust belt.

Edit: that last part reads sarcastic but it’s not


It's the ebb and flow. 2018 is the counter-wave to 2016, but what if 2020 is the counter-counter wave to that? Right now, liberal voters are fired up as heck and conservatives are disinterested and beaten down. A liberal Congress is exactly what conservatives need to rally against, they need an enemy and a boogeyman.

In 2010, Republicans gained 63 House seats, 6 Senate seats and a record 680 seats in state legislatures.

By 2012, Obama was dunking on Romney.


I don't think the Dems controlling the House is the boogeyman the right is looking for. If it's a woman or a socialist that wins the DNC nomination, that's their boogeyman.

The Democrats more than likely have this in 2020, it's not about who they select who will energize the right, it's about who will maintain the current energy for the left that will determine the winner.


Probably. But I've learned not to take anything for granted.
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Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Tue Apr 24, 2018 1:39 am

Smug denials of Trump being re-elected go in one ear & out the other for me. I'll believe the wave happens when it actually does, not a moment before.
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