Politics & Current Events

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 33764
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man
x 1666
x 1581

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:09 am

Thrilho wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Thrilho wrote:You said it man. Nobody even wants to talk about it because it’s too damn depressing. I just hope that they come out to vote and that the vote hasn’t been fully rigged by November. Lose in November and people are really not gonna want to talk about it.


If the Democrats manage to lose in November despite winning something like 54% of the vote, it's game over. 100%. Republicans will realize they have complete power to continue to rewrite the rules in their favor and will never, ever give it up. It's only a question of how long people will accept it before the whole thing breaks down.

So damn dark but for once I believe your doom boner could be on the money. They have only just begun swinging around that big SCOTUS stick they stole. Never is a long time but I just listened to Dick Durbin on the radio. They were asking him whether he was going to vote against Kavanaugh and he would only say that he’s going to “ask some very tough questions.”

If the people can’t muster a large enough majority to overcome this rigging in these times we cannot count on these chickenhorsefeathers Democrats to take the system back for us at any point in the future.

The main thing I’m counting on this November and in the future is the youth. They’ve been consistently not coming through for us for decades but hopefully their feathers have been ruffled enough by this disgusting president and GOP that we’ll finally see a generation give a horsefeathers about politics before they’re old enough to be voting against higher taxes as their main concern.


I've been trying to avoid the doom-boner but you just start to realize how much they've normalized and how much people just accept it.

The President of the United States is a Russian intelligence asset, they're setting up an office specifically aimed at denaturalizing as many brown people as they can, and they're building concentration camps for children. But the economy hasn't tanked yet and most of it doesn't hurt middle-class white people, so even a big chunk of liberals are incentivized to convince themselves it isn't that bad and maybe Mueller will save us and maybe November will save us.

Once November passes, if they still control the house and senate, they are 100% in the clear. They'll have a Supreme Court that will rubber-stamp the most extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression measures they can come up with. With the level of data-mining and sophistication they've put behind these things, they can literally design the laws specifically to guarantee their victories each round. You can moan all you want about Hillary Clinton's campaign strategies, but Wisconsin would have stayed blue if not for a targeted voter ID law combined with coincidental DMV closures in areas where students or black voters tended to live. That's the playbook everywhere now.

The two things holding them back have been fear of electoral reprisal and fear of the court systems. They're about to have total control of the Supreme Court, something they've been jizzing in their sleep about for decades, and with that they can pass the electoral laws they want without anyone to stop them.

What we've seen so far is a drop in the bucket. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they settle for just deporting 10 million illegal immigrants (lol @ exceptions for dreamers), stripping the social safety net to virtually nothing, reversing gay marriage, and outlawing abortion nationwide (lol @ the idea they'd leave it up to the states once Roe v. Wade is reversed). I'm expecting a full 21st century fascist oligarchy, which includes less mass-murder but plenty of suppression of opposition party, massive corruption, and for-profit prison camps run wild.

In theory, we'd probably eventually see a revolt and the breakdown of the country itself after some number of decades, but global warming will probably kill us all by then anyway.
1 x

User avatar
CubInOK
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6703
Joined: Wed May 07, 2003 1:08 am
Location: Oklahoma City, OK
x 1425
x 425

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CubInOK » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:01 am

I have a hunch that the Electoral College gets bribed in 2020. Like, the Dem gets the 2016 map + MI, WI, PA, FL, IA, but Trump gets 275 EC votes because reasons.
0 x

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 67985
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 984
x 1878

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:02 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Thrilho wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
If the Democrats manage to lose in November despite winning something like 54% of the vote, it's game over. 100%. Republicans will realize they have complete power to continue to rewrite the rules in their favor and will never, ever give it up. It's only a question of how long people will accept it before the whole thing breaks down.

So damn dark but for once I believe your doom boner could be on the money. They have only just begun swinging around that big SCOTUS stick they stole. Never is a long time but I just listened to Dick Durbin on the radio. They were asking him whether he was going to vote against Kavanaugh and he would only say that he’s going to “ask some very tough questions.”

If the people can’t muster a large enough majority to overcome this rigging in these times we cannot count on these chickenhorsefeathers Democrats to take the system back for us at any point in the future.

The main thing I’m counting on this November and in the future is the youth. They’ve been consistently not coming through for us for decades but hopefully their feathers have been ruffled enough by this disgusting president and GOP that we’ll finally see a generation give a horsefeathers about politics before they’re old enough to be voting against higher taxes as their main concern.


I've been trying to avoid the doom-boner but you just start to realize how much they've normalized and how much people just accept it.

The President of the United States is a Russian intelligence asset, they're setting up an office specifically aimed at denaturalizing as many brown people as they can, and they're building concentration camps for children. But the economy hasn't tanked yet and most of it doesn't hurt middle-class white people, so even a big chunk of liberals are incentivized to convince themselves it isn't that bad and maybe Mueller will save us and maybe November will save us.

Once November passes, if they still control the house and senate, they are 100% in the clear. They'll have a Supreme Court that will rubber-stamp the most extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression measures they can come up with. With the level of data-mining and sophistication they've put behind these things, they can literally design the laws specifically to guarantee their victories each round. You can moan all you want about Hillary Clinton's campaign strategies, but Wisconsin would have stayed blue if not for a targeted voter ID law combined with coincidental DMV closures in areas where students or black voters tended to live. That's the playbook everywhere now.

The two things holding them back have been fear of electoral reprisal and fear of the court systems. They're about to have total control of the Supreme Court, something they've been jizzing in their sleep about for decades, and with that they can pass the electoral laws they want without anyone to stop them.

What we've seen so far is a drop in the bucket. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they settle for just deporting 10 million illegal immigrants (lol @ exceptions for dreamers), stripping the social safety net to virtually nothing, reversing gay marriage, and outlawing abortion nationwide (lol @ the idea they'd leave it up to the states once Roe v. Wade is reversed). I'm expecting a full 21st century fascist oligarchy, which includes less mass-murder but plenty of suppression of opposition party, massive corruption, and for-profit prison camps run wild.

In theory, we'd probably eventually see a revolt and the breakdown of the country itself after some number of decades, but global warming will probably kill us all by then anyway.


That's some quality doom-bonering
0 x

User avatar
Thrilho
Starter
Posts: 777
Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 3:48 am
Location: Logan Square
x 320
x 193

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Thrilho » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:24 am

Again, so dark and so believable. But I am by nature very optimistic and don't like defeatism, so I'll try and list some potential reasons for long term optimism even if they somehow don't take back the House (whether that's through real full on rigging, gerrymander/suppression rigging or pure old fashion American stupidity and laziness).

In no specific order:
1. If the GOP has indefinite power they will eventually get the blame for all the horrible stuff they cause
- If nothing changes the tax cut bill and many of these other moves are going to help tank the economy. Or at least that's what Ben Bernanke thinks
- There are a lot of people with pre-existing conditions that are going to realize how important their protections are when they go away
- There are a lot of other people who will lose insurance soon. They will remember having insurance and will eventually figure out who took it away

2. The GOP is going after the rights of some pretty large groups
http://www.people-press.org/2018/03/20/ ... ic-groups/
- Women like their reproductive rights. That battle seems destined to be refought and I'm guessing it's going to lose the GOP some women votes. But they're already trending dem
- Minorities of all kind are under attack and it's like only going to get worse
- Youth do not like the GOP. According to the Pew article, only 17% of Millenials identify as Republicans (35% Dem, 44% Ind). But limit to Millenial women? Those smart people are 70% Dem. We don't have numbers on Gen Z, but I'd guess they don't look better than Millenials. Which leads me to my next point:

3. The shifting demographics of the country
http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/20 ... lectorate/
- Millenials are at 62 million, Gen X at 57, Boomers at 70, Silent/Greatest at 28 mil and losing about 2 per year. Gen Z is something like 70 million according to wikipedia
- So we may see continued apathy from the voting age youth, but if not it will tip the scales. 17% support is not much support and if the government goes full totalitarian and slashes the safety net (which the youth often use and need) their revolution will be showing up to the polls
- White people are dropping as a percentage of the country. They're a key GOP vote

4. The Senate and Presidency cannot be gerrymandered in the same way as the House. The electoral college is BS but if the Dems can find a way to consistently flip the state of TX blue that would completely change the electoral calculous. The immigration and youth movement down there could do it

5. The states, the intelligence community, what remains of the independent court system. If there is something criminal happening with the GOP at the federal level, it is possible that some of these other groups will put up a good enough fight to win. Their ace in the hole is that they can leak tapes and documents to the American public that the American public can't unhear.

I'm sure there is more but I'll stop there because I'm sure nobody is reading anymore anyway. I hate the idea that America could fall into a dark future like the one you describe where there is no return. Because if America flips into something that sinister I don't know what power is out there that will keep the dark at bay. We already saw Britain get flipped with the greatest of ease. We just have to hope that the votes actually get counted because if that future comes to pass I can't believe that the majority of the country that is against those policies would still skip voting.
2 x

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 33764
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man
x 1666
x 1581

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:35 am

The Senate and the presidency were the original gerrymanders, basically to protect slave states. Republicans have controlled one or both while receiving a lower vote total for most of the current century.
0 x

User avatar
Hairyducked Idiot
Kyle in disguise
Posts: 33764
Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2004 2:42 pm
Location: Friendly Neighborhood Spider-Man
x 1666
x 1581

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:38 am

Basically I am pretty sure we are the American version of the generation of Romans born around 70 bc. The Republic can’t be going anywhere no matter how fast norms and institutions are stripped away, right?

The only reason our fascist takeover will be less murder-y is because it’s more corrupt and for-profit prisons are way more grift-friendly than executions.
0 x

User avatar
Thrilho
Starter
Posts: 777
Joined: Thu May 26, 2011 3:48 am
Location: Logan Square
x 320
x 193

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Thrilho » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:48 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:The Senate and the presidency were the original gerrymanders, basically to protect slave states. Republicans have controlled one or both while receiving a lower vote total for most of the current century.

Yeah but there’s nothing new they’re going to throw at you with the courts making new laws and algorithms redistributing away an advantage. If WV starts feeling the burn of the slashed safety net and turns against the GOP who has been in power for 8 years there isn’t a lot the anyone can do to keep them from electing a dem senator or voting for the pres. You can suppress but there’s not House gerrymander type solution for systematically lumping their votes together so they don’t count.

Or again, the easiest example is that TX flips and turns the whole electoral college strategy on its ear. Maybe there’s some way around this all, but ultimately if the youth are as disdainful of the GOP as that Pee article suggests then eventually it’s got to come home to roost.

Edit: again, this all assumes that they are still actually counting the votes that get cast. Without that then yes they can do whatever they want.
0 x

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 53539
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 2:47 pm
Location: Perth, W.A.
x 1192
x 1808
Contact:

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:30 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:I know, I know, this will read like wish fulfillment to some. Just some light reading to cleanse the palate of the images of children being ripped away from their parents.



tom nichols - a moderate republican and expert on US-Russia relations who nobody would ever accuse of being a conspiracy theorist - had some interesting thoughts on this, which you can read in tweet thread or article form:

article: https://www.politico.com/magazine/story ... ait-218966

tweet:


tl; dr: he thinks it's unlikely that trump is acting on orders from moscow (i.e., technically not an "asset"), but he does think that the kremlin invested in trump a long time ago because (a) he had significant financial and political ties in NYC, and (b) has basically no floor when it comes to ethics. and he says that there is way too much smoke (with trump's ties to russia) to be explained away by "well trump is an international businessman, of course he knows some people in russian finance," and thinks that the kremlin almost certainly has damaging information about trump's finances and/or personal conduct. nichols' opinion is that trump is acting in a manner to please putin and the russian government because he's afraid of what they could reveal about him.

[T]here is no way to read Chait’s story—or to do any judicious review of Donald Trump’s dealings with the Russians over years—and reach any other conclusion but that the Kremlin has damaging and deeply compromising knowledge about the president. Whether they are using such materials, and how, is a matter of legitimate argument. That such things exist, however, and that they seem to be preoccupying the president, should be obvious.
1 x

User avatar
JudasIscariotTheBird
All-Star
Posts: 3216
Joined: Wed Oct 01, 2003 6:05 am
Location: Denver, CO
x 2945
x 1270

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:53 am

Let's hear what noted minority activist and socialist Joe Rogan has to say about the state of things:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OeKoh2zHg1o
1 x
"None of these signal alarm bells to me"-Boris
"Sublime was driven by their frontman, who was, quite probably, a musical savant." -RIP Stannis
(Formerly Diceman4221)

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 53539
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 2:47 pm
Location: Perth, W.A.
x 1192
x 1808
Contact:

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:02 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:


kennedy is evaluated as left of center? lol.

he was basically a boilerplate modern-day republican except for not hating gays and being kind of okay with abortion.
0 x
Fred Hornkohl wrote:Go CUBS !!

User avatar
TruffleShuffle
Inner-Circle HOF
Posts: 53539
Joined: Thu Jul 01, 2004 2:47 pm
Location: Perth, W.A.
x 1192
x 1808
Contact:

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Jul 11, 2018 6:04 am

Derwood wrote:Trump pardons the Bundy ranchers because of course he does


if those people were black or hispanic trump would have demanded that they be given the death penalty.
0 x
Fred Hornkohl wrote:Go CUBS !!

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 67985
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 984
x 1878

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:27 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:


kennedy is evaluated as left of center? lol.

he was basically a boilerplate modern-day republican except for not hating gays and being kind of okay with abortion.


As the GOP keeps pushing farther and farther right, the definition of a "moderate" changes with it. It's why the Tea Party crazies and Trumpsters think Obama and Clinton are Marxist Commies instead of centrists
0 x

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 77148
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9501
x 12632

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:54 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Thrilho wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
If the Democrats manage to lose in November despite winning something like 54% of the vote, it's game over. 100%. Republicans will realize they have complete power to continue to rewrite the rules in their favor and will never, ever give it up. It's only a question of how long people will accept it before the whole thing breaks down.

So damn dark but for once I believe your doom boner could be on the money. They have only just begun swinging around that big SCOTUS stick they stole. Never is a long time but I just listened to Dick Durbin on the radio. They were asking him whether he was going to vote against Kavanaugh and he would only say that he’s going to “ask some very tough questions.”

If the people can’t muster a large enough majority to overcome this rigging in these times we cannot count on these chickenhorsefeathers Democrats to take the system back for us at any point in the future.

The main thing I’m counting on this November and in the future is the youth. They’ve been consistently not coming through for us for decades but hopefully their feathers have been ruffled enough by this disgusting president and GOP that we’ll finally see a generation give a horsefeathers about politics before they’re old enough to be voting against higher taxes as their main concern.


I've been trying to avoid the doom-boner but you just start to realize how much they've normalized and how much people just accept it.

The President of the United States is a Russian intelligence asset, they're setting up an office specifically aimed at denaturalizing as many brown people as they can, and they're building concentration camps for children. But the economy hasn't tanked yet and most of it doesn't hurt middle-class white people, so even a big chunk of liberals are incentivized to convince themselves it isn't that bad and maybe Mueller will save us and maybe November will save us.

Once November passes, if they still control the house and senate, they are 100% in the clear. They'll have a Supreme Court that will rubber-stamp the most extreme gerrymandering and voter suppression measures they can come up with. With the level of data-mining and sophistication they've put behind these things, they can literally design the laws specifically to guarantee their victories each round. You can moan all you want about Hillary Clinton's campaign strategies, but Wisconsin would have stayed blue if not for a targeted voter ID law combined with coincidental DMV closures in areas where students or black voters tended to live. That's the playbook everywhere now.

The two things holding them back have been fear of electoral reprisal and fear of the court systems. They're about to have total control of the Supreme Court, something they've been jizzing in their sleep about for decades, and with that they can pass the electoral laws they want without anyone to stop them.

What we've seen so far is a drop in the bucket. I'll be pleasantly surprised if they settle for just deporting 10 million illegal immigrants (lol @ exceptions for dreamers), stripping the social safety net to virtually nothing, reversing gay marriage, and outlawing abortion nationwide (lol @ the idea they'd leave it up to the states once Roe v. Wade is reversed). I'm expecting a full 21st century fascist oligarchy, which includes less mass-murder but plenty of suppression of opposition party, massive corruption, and for-profit prison camps run wild.

In theory, we'd probably eventually see a revolt and the breakdown of the country itself after some number of decades, but global warming will probably kill us all by then anyway.


The depressing cherry on top is that between Trump becoming the Republican nominee and Election Night, the GOP were basically preparing to go even further into full-on defense/obstructionist mode for the next 4-8 years in anticipation of a Democratic WH and Supreme Court, and continuing pushback and awareness of things like gerrymandering and redistricting, etc., etc.. This nightmare scenario we're currently in was something they didn't even think was going happen barely more than 18 months ago. These idiots essentially Kramer-ed their way into controlling everything.
0 x

User avatar
OleMissCub
Hall of Fame
Posts: 36830
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:32 am
x 1037
x 1388

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:03 pm

TruffleShuffle wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:


kennedy is evaluated as left of center? lol.

he was basically a boilerplate modern-day republican except for not hating gays and being kind of okay with abortion.


Did you happen to read how that metric is calculated? The decisive calculation for that metric is not based on a judge’s rulings or even their own personal ideology but on the political ideology of that judge’s home state senators. That’s perhaps the most inane metric I’ve ever seen 538 use. It’s borderline intellectually dishonest of them to throw that out there as being dispositive of anything.

Kennedy is placed there because he hails from California and Thomas is where he is (albeit placed accurately) because he comes from Georgia.
0 x
Image

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 77148
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9501
x 12632

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:10 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Did you happen to read how that metric is calculated? The decisive calculation for that metric is not based on a judge’s rulings or even their own personal ideology but on the political ideology of that judge’s home state senators. That’s perhaps the most inane metric I’ve ever seen 538 use. It’s borderline intellectually dishonest of them to throw that out there as being dispositive of anything.


http://epstein.wustl.edu/research/JCS.pdf

Seems to be used pretty commonly:

https://www.google.com/search?q=judicia ... &oe=utf-8&
0 x

User avatar
OleMissCub
Hall of Fame
Posts: 36830
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:32 am
x 1037
x 1388

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:13 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Did you happen to read how that metric is calculated? The decisive calculation for that metric is not based on a judge’s rulings or even their own personal ideology but on the political ideology of that judge’s home state senators. That’s perhaps the most inane metric I’ve ever seen 538 use. It’s borderline intellectually dishonest of them to throw that out there as being dispositive of anything.


http://epstein.wustl.edu/research/JCS.pdf

Seems to be used pretty commonly:

https://www.google.com/search?q=judicia ... &oe=utf-8&


It’s still an odd way to calculate jurisprudence. I’d rather see a metric based on their rulings.
0 x
Image

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 77148
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9501
x 12632

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:17 pm

I mean, seems like there's more to it than how you're summing it up. I don't have the patience to read the first link, so I'll leave it up to someone who does to explain how this actually woks.
0 x

User avatar
Thurman Merman
Starter
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2006 8:43 pm
x 431
x 138

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Thurman Merman » Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:54 pm

Too lazy to look it up, but I think they only rely on that senator affiliation thing for certain judges that don't have specific data to run that assessment. So for Kennedy or the othe Supreme Court justices, their rating is actually based on their rulings, not their home state senator or whatever.
0 x

User avatar
Derwood
Stall Monitor
Posts: 67985
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 4:44 pm
Location: 375 Miles East of Wrigley
x 984
x 1878

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Derwood » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:15 pm

The important thing is that we get a 6th Catholic on the bench, right? And another white male.
0 x

User avatar
OleMissCub
Hall of Fame
Posts: 36830
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:32 am
x 1037
x 1388

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:20 pm

Thurman Merman wrote:Too lazy to look it up, but I think they only rely on that senator affiliation thing for certain judges that don't have specific data to run that assessment. So for Kennedy or the othe Supreme Court justices, their rating is actually based on their rulings, not their home state senator or whatever.


Well that explains why Kennedy is where he is because I was thinking that there is no way that Feinstein and Harris are that close to the middle.

Nevertheless, placing Kavanaugh on that chart only using his home-state senators is pointless.
0 x
Image

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 77148
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9501
x 12632

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:57 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
Thurman Merman wrote:Too lazy to look it up, but I think they only rely on that senator affiliation thing for certain judges that don't have specific data to run that assessment. So for Kennedy or the othe Supreme Court justices, their rating is actually based on their rulings, not their home state senator or whatever.


Well that explains why Kennedy is where he is because I was thinking that there is no way that Feinstein and Harris are that close to the middle.

Nevertheless, placing Kavanaugh on that chart only using his home-state senators is pointless.


I'm confused; isn't he saying that the data from that study isn't only based on state political affiliation? Why would there not be tracking of Kavanaugh's rulings?
0 x

User avatar
OleMissCub
Hall of Fame
Posts: 36830
Joined: Sun Jun 01, 2003 6:32 am
x 1037
x 1388

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:27 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
Thurman Merman wrote:Too lazy to look it up, but I think they only rely on that senator affiliation thing for certain judges that don't have specific data to run that assessment. So for Kennedy or the othe Supreme Court justices, their rating is actually based on their rulings, not their home state senator or whatever.


Well that explains why Kennedy is where he is because I was thinking that there is no way that Feinstein and Harris are that close to the middle.

Nevertheless, placing Kavanaugh on that chart only using his home-state senators is pointless.


I'm confused; isn't he saying that the data from that study isn't only based on state political affiliation? Why would there not be tracking of Kavanaugh's rulings?


The article says that with Kavanaugh they aren't basing it on his rulings. Hell, he's been on the bench for 13 years, so I'm sure there are metrics out there that could use his rulings as a guide. Thus, I'm not sure why 538 threw that chart out there at all.

That score is based not on Kavanaugh’s rulings but rather on the nomination and confirmation process. Typically, these scores are based in part on the ideology of a judge’s home-state senators, but because Kavanaugh served on the D.C. circuit and D.C. does not have any senators, his ideology score is based solely on the president who nominated him, George W. Bush.
0 x
Image

User avatar
Thurman Merman
Starter
Posts: 456
Joined: Wed Jun 28, 2006 8:43 pm
x 431
x 138

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Thurman Merman » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:34 pm

I think one of the previous articles they wrote explained it a bit better, but damned if I'm going to look for it.
0 x

User avatar
CyHawk_Cub
5-Time All-Star
Posts: 6713
Joined: Fri Jul 06, 2007 9:24 pm
x 108
x 1848

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:45 pm



What’s remarkable here is Stoltenberg’s active effort to get Trump to take credit for getting his own way at NATO. European officials badly want Trump to do this, because they are hoping it will mollify him. The Post reports that diplomats are worried that Trump’s commitment to the organization might weaken to a crisis point, which would “send the alliance into a tailspin, damaging security by opening the question of whether NATO’s most powerful member is still willing to defend its allies if one were attacked.” On top of that, they fear this will play into the hands of Vladimir Putin, with whom Trump is also set to meet.
0 x

User avatar
Sammy Sofa
Licks Butts
Posts: 77148
Joined: Sat Oct 22, 2005 3:45 am
Location: Washington DC
x 9501
x 12632

Re: Politics & Current Events

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:58 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:

What’s remarkable here is Stoltenberg’s active effort to get Trump to take credit for getting his own way at NATO. European officials badly want Trump to do this, because they are hoping it will mollify him. The Post reports that diplomats are worried that Trump’s commitment to the organization might weaken to a crisis point, which would “send the alliance into a tailspin, damaging security by opening the question of whether NATO’s most powerful member is still willing to defend its allies if one were attacked.” On top of that, they fear this will play into the hands of Vladimir Putin, with whom Trump is also set to meet.




Boy, that's certainly not a shamelessly transparent attempt to create a strawman scenario that the US can use as an excuse to throw NATO into a weakened state of chaotic in-fighting. SO WEIRD.
0 x


Return to “Social”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google Adsense [Bot], Majestic-12 [Bot], Senoryuletide and 11 guests