The Politics Thread

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:31 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:How so? What demographics in Minnesota suggest its open to Trump out of curiosity?

High white population. I think it skews older too, but I'd have to check. Higher than average educational attainment does help offset these. And these things are obviously by no means precursors, there's a lot of noise, but if I had to chose some other surprise GOP flips it would be older, white D states that might be under polled as well (NH, ME I think would both fit here).

Colorado is pretty damn white, and it keeps getting more and more blue by the month. I don't think race demo is the right way to go about things. Education and religious affiliation tell the tale.

I mean race definitely means something. And CO looks like it's at the very least staying flat whereas it looks like MN is somehow getting slightly whiter. I'm sure the positive net migration is helpful for CO as well.

I haven't looked too much at religious affiliation. I had focused before on median age and education since those were big turnout groups for 2018. Also the lower a state for turnout historically, the more potential they had. So thats where Kansas came in. But it's also 6 EC votes so it's not like it's a particularly good ROI to actually invest in either.
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The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Sep 17, 2020 12:33 am

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:How so? What demographics in Minnesota suggest its open to Trump out of curiosity?

High white population. I think it skews older too, but I'd have to check. Higher than average educational attainment does help offset these. And these things are obviously by no means precursors, there's a lot of noise, but if I had to chose some other surprise GOP flips it would be older, white D states that might be under polled as well (NH, ME I think would both fit here).

Colorado is pretty damn white, and it keeps getting more and more blue by the month. I don't think race demo is the right way to go about things. Education and religious affiliation tell the tale.

For white people, that makes some sense. In Minnesota, you have mostly Lutheran and Catholic, very little Baptist. Pretty liberal overall

ETA: there are mega churches however, those people are the ones who got Michelle Bachman elected
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby sneakypower » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:38 pm

ABC/WaPo poll yesterday had Biden +16 in MN
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:50 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:High white population. I think it skews older too, but I'd have to check. Higher than average educational attainment does help offset these. And these things are obviously by no means precursors, there's a lot of noise, but if I had to chose some other surprise GOP flips it would be older, white D states that might be under polled as well (NH, ME I think would both fit here).

Colorado is pretty damn white, and it keeps getting more and more blue by the month. I don't think race demo is the right way to go about things. Education and religious affiliation tell the tale.

For white people, that makes some sense. In Minnesota, you have mostly Lutheran and Catholic, very little Baptist. Pretty liberal overall

ETA: there are mega churches however, those people are the ones who got Michelle Bachman elected

So browsing through some demographics last night, and yea, religious affiliate looks really strongly correlated state by state.

Coincidentally 538 came out with a good article today on religious affiliation.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... se-voters/

If 2018 was a strong youth/college educated turnout year as suspected, the "non-religious affiliation" may already be baked into the current numbers by a large degree, so I wonder if religious affiliation is a big potential turnout area from 18 to 20. But may really help out the map from 16 to 20, as well as protect a place like ME or NH from becoming a "WTF" GOP flip.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby bukie » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:11 pm



There are no words. The USPS had a realistic and smart plan to deal with the virus on a national level and the White House blocked it because they'd rather promote ignorance than life.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:14 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Sep 17, 2020 4:39 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Colorado is pretty damn white, and it keeps getting more and more blue by the month. I don't think race demo is the right way to go about things. Education and religious affiliation tell the tale.

For white people, that makes some sense. In Minnesota, you have mostly Lutheran and Catholic, very little Baptist. Pretty liberal overall

ETA: there are mega churches however, those people are the ones who got Michelle Bachman elected

So browsing through some demographics last night, and yea, religious affiliate looks really strongly correlated state by state.

Coincidentally 538 came out with a good article today on religious affiliation.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... se-voters/

If 2018 was a strong youth/college educated turnout year as suspected, the "non-religious affiliation" may already be baked into the current numbers by a large degree, so I wonder if religious affiliation is a big potential turnout area from 18 to 20. But may really help out the map from 16 to 20, as well as protect a place like ME or NH from becoming a "WTF" GOP flip.


I don't really get the premise of the 538 piece. Why are Dems ignoring these voters? 1. There's no unifying message to all nonreligious(which include satheists, agnostics and nothing in particular) 2. Republicans catering to the evangelicals does the work for the Dems for those that are anti-religious.

Like what's the message to nonreligious that doesn't turn off religious Dems?(including the largely religious black/hispanic bloc)
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:09 pm

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Thu Sep 17, 2020 5:15 pm

bukie wrote:

There are no words. The USPS had a realistic and smart plan to deal with the virus on a national level and the White House blocked it because they'd rather promote ignorance than life.

My sister in law is the mayor of a smallish city in Colorado. She found a company that was willing to donate a mask for every citizen in the city. The rest of her council nixed the whole plan because neighboring cities don't have the same resources, and they didn't want to look like they were showing off. Makes absolutely no horsefeathers sense. There are stupid people in power everywhere.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:17 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:For white people, that makes some sense. In Minnesota, you have mostly Lutheran and Catholic, very little Baptist. Pretty liberal overall

ETA: there are mega churches however, those people are the ones who got Michelle Bachman elected

So browsing through some demographics last night, and yea, religious affiliate looks really strongly correlated state by state.

Coincidentally 538 came out with a good article today on religious affiliation.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... se-voters/

If 2018 was a strong youth/college educated turnout year as suspected, the "non-religious affiliation" may already be baked into the current numbers by a large degree, so I wonder if religious affiliation is a big potential turnout area from 18 to 20. But may really help out the map from 16 to 20, as well as protect a place like ME or NH from becoming a "WTF" GOP flip.


I don't really get the premise of the 538 piece. Why are Dems ignoring these voters? 1. There's no unifying message to all nonreligious(which include satheists, agnostics and nothing in particular) 2. Republicans catering to the evangelicals does the work for the Dems for those that are anti-religious.

Like what's the message to nonreligious that doesn't turn off religious Dems?(including the largely religious black/hispanic bloc)

I mean the article kind of discusses that nuance that you're talking about.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:29 pm

William Barr has gone full Himmler.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Sep 17, 2020 6:51 pm

CubinNY wrote:William Barr has gone full Himmler.



yuuuup. He's ready to jail Durkan and throw away the keys.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby SouthSideRyan » Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:37 pm

WrigleyField 22 wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:So browsing through some demographics last night, and yea, religious affiliate looks really strongly correlated state by state.

Coincidentally 538 came out with a good article today on religious affiliation.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/mo ... se-voters/

If 2018 was a strong youth/college educated turnout year as suspected, the "non-religious affiliation" may already be baked into the current numbers by a large degree, so I wonder if religious affiliation is a big potential turnout area from 18 to 20. But may really help out the map from 16 to 20, as well as protect a place like ME or NH from becoming a "WTF" GOP flip.


I don't really get the premise of the 538 piece. Why are Dems ignoring these voters? 1. There's no unifying message to all nonreligious(which include satheists, agnostics and nothing in particular) 2. Republicans catering to the evangelicals does the work for the Dems for those that are anti-religious.

Like what's the message to nonreligious that doesn't turn off religious Dems?(including the largely religious black/hispanic bloc)

I mean the article kind of discusses that nuance that you're talking about.


Levin said there are ways to make appeals to secular voters that can also speak to religious Democrats — for example, emphasizing the importance of protecting religious minorities and nonreligious people through the separation of church and state, or focusing on science-based issues like climate change. That kind of big-tent strategy isn’t without risk, though. “The last thing Democrats want is to be portrayed as the godless party, because that would probably turn off a lot of voters,” Campbell said. But he added that Democrats may be missing a big political opportunity if they don’t start thinking about ways to engage with nonreligious voters as a group.

“Until parties and politicians start talking to secular voters as a bloc, voters won’t see themselves that way either,” he said. “What you have on the right with white evangelical Protestants is a distinct group that can be courted and discussed. The left hasn’t figured out how to do that with nonreligious voters. But we could see more efforts in that direction going forward.”


Democrats are already the party of science between the two. They're already the party of inclusiveness between the two. Other than the militant athiest types you find on reddit, I get the impression that most nonreligious really don't care. Annoyed by constant Christian references maybe, but it's not what defines them like you see with so many religious. Add to that this is a group that already votes overwhelmingly Democrat with numbers trending in the right direction.

What is a winning policy Biden can pitch to nonreligious that isn't already part of the party platform?
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby mias_tisg » Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:48 pm

CubinNY wrote:
abuck1220 wrote:my concerns are:

1) cheating
...
...
...
17) pennsylvania
18) biden having a stroke or something during a debate

Same, excpet for I also worry about what is going to happen if he does lose.

Biden losing would be a bigger disaster than Trump winning just based on what will happen with the Democratic Party.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby Rob » Thu Sep 17, 2020 7:56 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
WrigleyField 22 wrote:
SouthSideRyan wrote:
I don't really get the premise of the 538 piece. Why are Dems ignoring these voters? 1. There's no unifying message to all nonreligious(which include satheists, agnostics and nothing in particular) 2. Republicans catering to the evangelicals does the work for the Dems for those that are anti-religious.

Like what's the message to nonreligious that doesn't turn off religious Dems?(including the largely religious black/hispanic bloc)

I mean the article kind of discusses that nuance that you're talking about.


Levin said there are ways to make appeals to secular voters that can also speak to religious Democrats — for example, emphasizing the importance of protecting religious minorities and nonreligious people through the separation of church and state, or focusing on science-based issues like climate change. That kind of big-tent strategy isn’t without risk, though. “The last thing Democrats want is to be portrayed as the godless party, because that would probably turn off a lot of voters,” Campbell said. But he added that Democrats may be missing a big political opportunity if they don’t start thinking about ways to engage with nonreligious voters as a group.

“Until parties and politicians start talking to secular voters as a bloc, voters won’t see themselves that way either,” he said. “What you have on the right with white evangelical Protestants is a distinct group that can be courted and discussed. The left hasn’t figured out how to do that with nonreligious voters. But we could see more efforts in that direction going forward.”


Democrats are already the party of science between the two. They're already the party of inclusiveness between the two. Other than the militant athiest types you find on reddit, I get the impression that most nonreligious really don't care. Annoyed by constant Christian references maybe, but it's not what defines them like you see with so many religious. Add to that this is a group that already votes overwhelmingly Democrat with numbers trending in the right direction.

What is a winning policy Biden can pitch to nonreligious that isn't already part of the party platform?


Taxing the heck out of churches.

ETA: that would be seen as a win for the nonreligious. It'd light half the country on fire. Cuz they real dumb.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Sep 17, 2020 8:09 pm

Something oft-discussed in this thread the past few years:
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CubinNY » Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:31 pm

They are all, all projection. They talk about indoctrination in schools and now Trump is proposing to indoctrinate children with Patriotic Education. You know what is patriotic, loving your country enough to try to make it a better place. horsefeathers these people.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Thu Sep 17, 2020 11:54 pm

Just more normal things happening
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:39 am

CubinNY wrote:They are all, all projection. They talk about indoctrination in schools and now Trump is proposing to indoctrinate children with Patriotic Education. You know what is patriotic, loving your country enough to try to make it a better place. horsefeathers these people.


Throw it right back in his face, whenever, he attempts to blame others for his bumbling of COVID, Biden' got to remind everyone Trump is President, he said it was hoax, he said it'll magically disappear with the arrival of Summer, he said to stick an X-Ray machine up your ass for treatment. Biden must be unrelenting, dirty, apply constant pressure, if he does so, Trump will crumble, he too feeble and weak minded. I'd call press conferences and play video clips of Trump saying it'll magically disappear every day until the election. Biden' got to do something along these lines unfortunately, this simple minded [expletive] works for some people.
Last edited by gflore34 on Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:54 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby NOLA » Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:51 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:Just more normal things happening

It’s terrifying how bad things could get in this country with four more years.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:54 am

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing ... ancisco-to

This sounds really cool. Pro Lifers should rejoice at this program too, but we know what will really happen.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Sep 18, 2020 2:50 am

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:35 am

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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 4:56 am

CyHawk_Cub wrote:

Were truly just "The States of America" now.
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Re: The Politics Thread

Postby gflore34 » Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:02 pm

Scary stuff - https://getpocket.com/explore/item/it-c ... ket-newtab

However, Trump in no way, shape or form compares to Hitler, not even remotely close, Trump has been enabled by the GOP. He's remained President because the GOP chose so. Trump' is not head from which everything flows, he is the foil. In Trump they have someone who'll accept, own and beam about all of the GOP' terrible legislation, etc., regardless of it's impact. I used to think he was a liability to the GOP when, in fact, he's an asset, he gets all the heat, while they continue to milk us dry and horsefeathers this country over behind the scenes.
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