The Politics Thread

[Banedon]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/politics ... index.html

President Donald Trump made a prediction about the GOP's control of the Senate at a fundraiser this week, privately telling donors that it will be "very tough" for Republicans to keep control of the chamber in the upcoming election, namely because Trump refuses to support some senators, The Washington Post reported on Saturday.

"I think the Senate is tough actually. The Senate is very tough," Trump said, according to an attendee who shared the President's comments on condition of anonymity with the Post. "There are a couple senators I can't really get involved in. I just can't do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can't help some of them. I don't want to help some of them."

Trump's comments were made at a closed-door gathering held in Nashville, Tennessee, before the last presidential debate, according to the Post, where he said that he thinks the GOP will "take back the House."

Oh yeah, that's the problem. That Trump won't help them.

And LOL @ taking back the House.

[BigbadB]

A fourth Pence aide has the Covid.

[OleMissCub]

“ At the moment, if the polls in every state were wrong in the exact same way as they were in 2016 — Biden still wins the presidency with over 300 electoral votes.“

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics ... right-now/

[bukie]

I would argue that it's more likely the polls are off in the other direction this cycle, as most are building in 2016 "protections" and/or treating this like a normal election with projected normal turnout per age bracket. This wouldn't account for higher youth turnout and voter motivation to get Trump out, which has been, anecdotally, the experience I've seen in my sphere of reality.

EDIT: District level polling is showing a larger lead nationally than national polling:

[Omar]

More fun to play with than 270towin.com

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/tr ... id=abcnews

[WrigleyField 22]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/24/politics/trump-republicans-senate/index.html

President Donald Trump made a prediction about the GOP's control of the Senate at a fundraiser this week, privately telling donors that it will be "very tough" for Republicans to keep control of the chamber in the upcoming election, namely because Trump refuses to support some senators, The Washington Post reported on Saturday.

"I think the Senate is tough actually. The Senate is very tough," Trump said, according to an attendee who shared the President's comments on condition of anonymity with the Post. "There are a couple senators I can't really get involved in. I just can't do it. You lose your soul if you do. I can't help some of them. I don't want to help some of them."

Trump's comments were made at a closed-door gathering held in Nashville, Tennessee, before the last presidential debate, according to the Post, where he said that he thinks the GOP will "take back the House."

Oh yeah, that's the problem. That Trump won't help them.

And LOL @ taking back the House.

Obviously the presidency is no sure bet due to the EC, but if Dems somehow lost the house, I'm sure they'd also lose the senate too. And I'd start looking seriously as what it would take to leave this country. Full stop.

[CyHawk_Cub]

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

[Brian]

in less than 24 hours the President's chief of staff has tried to hide an outbreak in the Vice President's office, condoned and defended the Vice President's traveling all over the country, and admitted that the official policy of the US is horsefeathers it we give up.

[cl smooth]

early voting started in nyc today. in and out of our brooklyn voting location in 10 minutes. never bothered to register in 2000 when i was 18 (pure laziness on my end) but voted a straight democratic ticket from 2004 to present.

aaaaaaaand then this happened at my voting station in red hook:

[UK]

Just when we recover from the 4yr hangover. If this country was so dumb, I'd hope one of them runs.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/andrewsole ... -dire/amp/

[Hairyducked Idiot]

I’m sitting here worried about edge-case scenarios where the polls miss in Trump’s favor *and* he gets a two-point swing this week *and* he managed to luck and cheat his way into winning every single close state.

Meanwhile the numbers keep saying Biden is going to win Texas

[NOLA]

[Brian]

I'm not sure if you're aware but nobody has done more for African Americans than Donald Trump, except maybe Lincoln, so I'm guessing they're all voting for him.

[big ball chunky time]

https://twitter.com/astoraaron/status/1320462272439832576?s=21

ehh I remember hearing similar things about hispanics in florida in 2016. none of this horsefeathers means anything until the votes are all in.

[JudasIscariotTheBird]

https://twitter.com/astoraaron/status/1320462272439832576?s=21

ehh I remember hearing similar things about hispanics in florida in 2016. none of this horsefeathers means anything until the votes are all in.

It doesn't mean everything. It also doesn't mean nothing.

If things were going the opposite way, everyone here would be flipping tf out.

[CyHawk_Cub]

[big ball chunky time]

https://twitter.com/astoraaron/status/1320462272439832576?s=21

ehh I remember hearing similar things about hispanics in florida in 2016. none of this horsefeathers means anything until the votes are all in.

It doesn't mean everything. It also doesn't mean nothing.

If things were going the opposite way, everyone here would be flipping tf out.

Yes and no. It doesn't mean "nothing" nothing, but it's one piece of info out of dozens in one of a dozen or so important states. As a single fact it's as close to meaningless as you can get.

[David]

https://twitter.com/astoraaron/status/1320462272439832576?s=21

ehh I remember hearing similar things about hispanics in florida in 2016. none of this horsefeathers means anything until the votes are all in.

whoever was reporting that probably should've realized that a ton of cubans vote republican up and down and there are a ton of cubans in florida. just saying.

[The Logan]

Trump also has a surprising amount of Hispanic support. Listened to an NPR report discussing this and apparently a lot of Hispanics view Trump as a symbol of the American dream they came here to chase, or something to that effect. And as for him making derogatory comments about them, like his most ardent supporters say, they like how he tells it straight.

But African Americans, especially in Georgia, coming out in troves to vote is big, especially considering how suppressed their vote is there.

[Derwood]

https://twitter.com/astoraaron/status/1320462272439832576?s=21

ehh I remember hearing similar things about hispanics in florida in 2016. none of this horsefeathers means anything until the votes are all in.

whoever was reporting that probably should've realized that a ton of cubans vote republican up and down and there are a ton of cubans in florida. just saying.

Yuuuup. I have a great many in-laws who are hardcore Republicans. They don't vocally support Trump, but they have a knee jerk reaction to anything that even remotely resembles "socialism" (which they equate with Castro)

[big ball chunky time]

https://twitter.com/astoraaron/status/1320462272439832576?s=21

ehh I remember hearing similar things about hispanics in florida in 2016. none of this horsefeathers means anything until the votes are all in.

whoever was reporting that probably should've realized that a ton of cubans vote republican up and down and there are a ton of cubans in florida. just saying.

I believe you mean a ton of typical Cuban Americans

[Cubfanintheknow]

It cannot be understated how many Republican voters are that way for life because of how much they despise the idea of legal abortion. The party is more than happy to play like they're on the verge of overturning RvW to string them along.

I'm quite certain someone has said this before, but Roe v. Wade is the carrot republicans would be more than happy to dangle forever in front of their constituents. There's enough single issue conservative voters that would be at risk of being lost if it were ever overturned.

ETA: need to read a little more closely. That's exactly what you said, Sofa.

Same with guns. And the vague, handwave-y talk of "less government/taxes." Those are the Holy Triumvirate for diehard conservatives.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-has-sparked-a-shift-in-how-some-conservatives-talk-and-think-about-abortion-161835258.html

Maybe an "aha moment" for a handful of them. But most can't or won't want to acknowledge they're being played.

[David]

ehh I remember hearing similar things about hispanics in florida in 2016. none of this horsefeathers means anything until the votes are all in.

whoever was reporting that probably should've realized that a ton of cubans vote republican up and down and there are a ton of cubans in florida. just saying.

I believe you mean a ton of typical Cuban Americans

yes.

typical cuban americans.

[NOLA]

How can anyone argue that massive turnout from the Dems’ most reliable voting bloc is nothing? It’s extremely encouraging.