CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Tue Mar 03, 2020 10:31 pm

David wrote:
Derwood wrote:Heard an interview with an expert on the 1918 flu pandemic that killed 50 million people. He said the first mistake of that outbreak was the government downplaying the severity of the strain to paint a more positive picture than the reality.

In other words, we’re all horsefeathers


I mean, I'm not at all attempting to downplay this situation but...also it was 1918.


I’m not saying that many people will die, just saying that Trump isn’t learning from history
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Mar 04, 2020 2:19 am

Derwood wrote:just saying that Trump isn’t learning from history

You don’t say?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby NOLA » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:17 am

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:36 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Derwood wrote:just saying that Trump isn’t learning from history

You don’t say?


I know, it's very surprising
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:32 am

Denver don't horsefeathers around.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Mar 04, 2020 3:55 pm

The CEO of my company (not huge but over $1b in size) has been updating the company on coronavirus and he mentioned that the mortality rate outside of Hubei provence is only 0.2% which is only slightly higher than 0.1% from normal flu. But I can't find anywhere else that says that. I believe it based on what else I've heard but I'd like to show this to my wife, who is buying into all the panic and is stockpiling food and making me promise I won't leave the house for weeks if there is a breakout in our area.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:04 pm

I think I saw something quoting a 3.something mortality rate... that may have been the U.S. numbers, either way the theory was that number is skewed by the under reporting/not testing horsefeathers show going on here.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:05 pm

Brian wrote:I think I saw something quoting a 3.something mortality rate... that may have been the U.S. numbers, either way the theory was that number is skewed by the under reporting/not testing horsefeathers show going on here.


This.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sank888 » Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:17 pm

David wrote:
Brian wrote:I think I saw something quoting a 3.something mortality rate... that may have been the U.S. numbers, either way the theory was that number is skewed by the under reporting/not testing horsefeathers show going on here.


This.


Wouldn’t the mortality rate be skewed up by under reporting. Unless you think that actual deaths are not being reported. It’s more likely that the total cases number is enormously understating the number of cases but the deaths are more accurately reported.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Wed Mar 04, 2020 4:18 pm

Sank888 wrote:
David wrote:
Brian wrote:I think I saw something quoting a 3.something mortality rate... that may have been the U.S. numbers, either way the theory was that number is skewed by the under reporting/not testing horsefeathers show going on here.


This.


Wouldn’t the mortality rate be skewed up by under reporting. Unless you think that actual deaths are not being reported. It’s more likely that the total cases number is enormously understating the number of cases but the deaths are more accurately reported.


Who said it was being skewed down?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:00 pm

Sank888 wrote:
David wrote:
Brian wrote:I think I saw something quoting a 3.something mortality rate... that may have been the U.S. numbers, either way the theory was that number is skewed by the under reporting/not testing horsefeathers show going on here.


This.


Wouldn’t the mortality rate be skewed up by under reporting. Unless you think that actual deaths are not being reported. It’s more likely that the total cases number is enormously understating the number of cases but the deaths are more accurately reported.


that happened here in Seattle, an elderly woman died last week at Harborview (I think ?) and was tested for the virus after she died....and had the virus. They didn't know. There is real concern in the area that the virus has spread much farther then what they currently know.

Hell, I could have it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:06 pm

Sank888 wrote:
David wrote:
Brian wrote:I think I saw something quoting a 3.something mortality rate... that may have been the U.S. numbers, either way the theory was that number is skewed by the under reporting/not testing horsefeathers show going on here.


This.


Wouldn’t the mortality rate be skewed up by under reporting. Unless you think that actual deaths are not being reported. It’s more likely that the total cases number is enormously understating the number of cases but the deaths are more accurately reported.


Yes, that's what I was saying.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:31 pm

New Bond movie moved from opening in April to November due to coronavirus
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Mar 04, 2020 5:47 pm

My trip to NYC in June is going to be completely horsefeathers over, isn't it
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:11 pm

UMFan83 wrote:The CEO of my company (not huge but over $1b in size) has been updating the company on coronavirus and he mentioned that the mortality rate outside of Hubei provence is only 0.2% which is only slightly higher than 0.1% from normal flu. But I can't find anywhere else that says that. I believe it based on what else I've heard but I'd like to show this to my wife, who is buying into all the panic and is stockpiling food and making me promise I won't leave the house for weeks if there is a breakout in our area.


Discounting the main epidemic center in China, the overall rate is approx. 1.5-ish%. So not as bad as the 3-4% often thrown around (overall, it's at about 3.4% right now), but significantly more deadly than the flu...though not as contagious as the flu, so at least there's that.

The NYT had a helpful summary today:

We spoke with Donald McNeil, a Times health reporter, about what it’s like to contract the coronavirus, based on what we’ve learned from China.

What does this illness look like? Some people compare it to the flu.

"No, it’s different from the flu. It’s a lung disease. Ninety percent of people get a fever, 80 percent get a dry cough and then it drops down to 30 percent get shortness of breath and malaise — you know, being tired.
A runny nose shows up in only 4 percent, and that may be people who also happen to have a cold or a flu."

We’ve been told that 80 percent of cases are “mild.” But you said that could include pneumonia?

"Yes. Chinese health officials define “mild” as a positive test — that’s fever, shortness of breath and possibly pneumonia, but not so bad that you need to be hospitalized. Once you need oxygen, you go into the severe category."

What are we learning about asymptomatic cases?

"The good news is that a large study from China suggests that less than 1 percent of cases are asymptomatic. Almost all people get sick."


The idea that people can be running around as superspreaders or something without any idea that they're sick really isn't the case; you get it, you almost certainly are going to feel sick somehow. The one consistent thing that keeps coming up is how relative few of the people who have it get a runny nose; the main tells are a persistent dry cough and a persistent fever.

But still, you're right in that prepping and isolation is something too many people are going overboard with. Outside of how mostly wasteful it is to get masks, pointlessly stocking up on mountains of water is the other one that's pretty morbidly funny.

You just have to be smart with it; it's not a bad idea to have roughly a week or two's worth of food handy so you can minimize having to go out to eat. It's a good idea to have at least 30 days' worth of any prescription. Avoiding unnecessary flying on Amtrak or bus travel isn't a bad idea for the time being, and not going to concerts/festivals/conventions/etc.., too. You don't have to become a shut-in, but it's not smart to basically live like nothing hs to change.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:17 pm

And the idea that it could be curbed by warm weather is still in play; Singapore is still very tough to figure out, but it's noticeable how areas like Thailand, Vietnam and basically all of Africa have had so few cases, despite heavy travel to and from China. Granted, this could just be endemic of bad testing/tracking/reporting, but it's hopefully indicative of how there could be a break after a couple of months.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:19 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote: Avoiding unnecessary flying on Amtrak or bus travel isn't a bad idea for the time being, .

you can take away my spring break over my cold dead hands

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:26 pm

Road trip it, baby.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:33 pm

I will definitely avoid any unnecessary amtrak flights.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:34 pm

Red line twice a day in rush hour, i'm basically playing Russian roulette twice a day for the foreseeable future. In the best of times there's always at least one person hacking up a lung each time.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:51 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Mar 04, 2020 6:53 pm

Brian wrote:Red line twice a day in rush hour, i'm basically playing Russian roulette twice a day for the foreseeable future. In the best of times there's always at least one person hacking up a lung each time.


The key with public transit is that's usually short term, and you can avoid sitting more easily. Unless someone is coughing or sneezing right onto your face, the odds are way in your favor so long as you're washing your hands ASAP and not touching your face.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:06 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I will definitely avoid any unnecessary amtrak flights.


i feel like an idiot for laughing at this as hard as i am
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:08 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I will definitely avoid any unnecessary amtrak flights.


i feel like an idiot for laughing at this as hard as i am


YOU'LL ALL SEE, DAMMIT.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sank888 » Wed Mar 04, 2020 7:18 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:New Bond movie moved from opening in April to November due to coronavirus


probably silly because this would be worse (at least in the US) in november.
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