UMFan83 wrote:The CEO of my company (not huge but over $1b in size) has been updating the company on coronavirus and he mentioned that the mortality rate outside of Hubei provence is only 0.2% which is only slightly higher than 0.1% from normal flu. But I can't find anywhere else that says that. I believe it based on what else I've heard but I'd like to show this to my wife, who is buying into all the panic and is stockpiling food and making me promise I won't leave the house for weeks if there is a breakout in our area.
Discounting the main epidemic center in China, the overall rate is approx. 1.5-ish%. So not as bad as the 3-4% often thrown around (overall, it's at about 3.4% right now), but significantly more deadly than the flu...though not as contagious as the flu, so at least there's that.
The NYT had a helpful summary today:
We spoke with Donald McNeil, a Times health reporter, about what it’s like to contract the coronavirus, based on what we’ve learned from China.
What does this illness look like? Some people compare it to the flu.
"No, it’s different from the flu. It’s a lung disease. Ninety percent of people get a fever, 80 percent get a dry cough and then it drops down to 30 percent get shortness of breath and malaise — you know, being tired.
A runny nose shows up in only 4 percent, and that may be people who also happen to have a cold or a flu."
We’ve been told that 80 percent of cases are “mild.” But you said that could include pneumonia?
"Yes. Chinese health officials define “mild” as a positive test — that’s fever, shortness of breath and possibly pneumonia, but not so bad that you need to be hospitalized. Once you need oxygen, you go into the severe category."
What are we learning about asymptomatic cases?
"The good news is that a large study from China suggests that less than 1 percent of cases are asymptomatic. Almost all people get sick."
The idea that people can be running around as superspreaders or something without any idea that they're sick really isn't the case; you get it, you almost certainly are going to feel sick somehow. The one consistent thing that keeps coming up is how relative few of the people who have it get a runny nose; the main tells are a persistent dry cough and a persistent fever.
But still, you're right in that prepping and isolation is something too many people are going overboard with. Outside of how mostly wasteful it is to get masks, pointlessly stocking up on mountains of water is the other one that's pretty morbidly funny.
You just have to be smart with it; it's not a bad idea to have roughly a week or two's worth of food handy so you can minimize having to go out to eat. It's a good idea to have at least 30 days' worth of any prescription. Avoiding unnecessary flying on Amtrak or bus travel isn't a bad idea for the time being, and not going to concerts/festivals/conventions/etc.., too. You don't have to become a shut-in, but it's not smart to basically live like nothing hs to change.