Tim wrote:Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It would also dovetail nicely with all those stories about mysterious pneumonia in Janurary and february that basically everyone knows someone who went through it.
But, I mean, I'm not remotely qualified to decide who is right when two groups of experts who both seem very qualified come up with wildly different stories.
If this is the end stages of a mature outbreak, how would it explain what is currently happening in NYC?
Ya, I’m not sure about it being in the end stages, but I think NY appears to be an outlier. There are 36 states with single digit death rates. Cook County only has 9 deaths so far. If you take out the NYC outbreak and Washington’s dead (most of which are due to it running through multiple nursing homes before they knew to look for it), you are only looking at 361 deaths so far for the rest of the nation.
There are some who say that we are just in the first inning of this thing and that’s why the death toll is so low, but I think that assumption is based on that flawed Imperial College study. They predicted on March 23rd that Tennessee would have 191 hospitalizations and they only have 15. They predicted that NY would have had 15,000 hospitalizations on the 23rd and the actual numbers are 2500 hospitalized in NY. Those numbers are before the “do nothing” or “moderate social distancing” curve numbers kick in, which I think begins next week on that Imperial College data. So we seem to be doing OK, all things considered.
For a comparison we’ve lost around 3,600 a month to regular flu this past flu season (Oct to Mar 2020).