CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Mar 25, 2020 12:38 pm

Tim wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It would also dovetail nicely with all those stories about mysterious pneumonia in Janurary and february that basically everyone knows someone who went through it.

But, I mean, I'm not remotely qualified to decide who is right when two groups of experts who both seem very qualified come up with wildly different stories.

If this is the end stages of a mature outbreak, how would it explain what is currently happening in NYC?


Ya, I’m not sure about it being in the end stages, but I think NY appears to be an outlier. There are 36 states with single digit death rates. Cook County only has 9 deaths so far. If you take out the NYC outbreak and Washington’s dead (most of which are due to it running through multiple nursing homes before they knew to look for it), you are only looking at 361 deaths so far for the rest of the nation.

There are some who say that we are just in the first inning of this thing and that’s why the death toll is so low, but I think that assumption is based on that flawed Imperial College study. They predicted on March 23rd that Tennessee would have 191 hospitalizations and they only have 15. They predicted that NY would have had 15,000 hospitalizations on the 23rd and the actual numbers are 2500 hospitalized in NY. Those numbers are before the “do nothing” or “moderate social distancing” curve numbers kick in, which I think begins next week on that Imperial College data. So we seem to be doing OK, all things considered.

For a comparison we’ve lost around 3,600 a month to regular flu this past flu season (Oct to Mar 2020).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:09 pm

This is such a good interview with Max Brooks regarding the reaction to the pandemic and things the government could be doing or should have done, based on his knowledge of national and global pandemic response measures he's gleaned from writing his books.

https://www.npr.org/2020/03/24/82060157 ... n-covid-19
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:10 pm

I read an article, but can’t find it, claiming the number of infected in Italy might be 10x what has been reported. If true, it’s another data point that reduces the mortality rate
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:17 pm

Derwood wrote:I read an article, but can’t find it, claiming the number of infected in Italy might be 10x what has been reported. If true, it’s another data point that reduces the mortality rate


I linked it on the last page
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:18 pm

wow.

UK’s official health agency is no longer considering Covid-19 to be an HCID (high consequence infections disease). Their statement

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/high-conseq ... f-covid-19

The 4 nations public health HCID group made an interim recommendation in January 2020 to classify COVID-19 as an HCID. This was based on consideration of the UK HCID criteria about the virus and the disease with information available during the early stages of the outbreak. Now that more is known about COVID-19, the public health bodies in the UK have reviewed the most up to date information about COVID-19 against the UK HCID criteria. They have determined that several features have now changed; in particular, more information is available about mortality rates (low overall), and there is now greater clinical awareness and a specific and sensitive laboratory test, the availability of which continues to increase.


I mean, they’re on lockdown for the next 3 weeks, so maybe them reclassifying it doesn’t really matter.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Mar 25, 2020 1:21 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
Derwood wrote:I read an article, but can’t find it, claiming the number of infected in Italy might be 10x what has been reported. If true, it’s another data point that reduces the mortality rate


I linked it on the last page


I need coffee

Or heroin in my forehead
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubinNY » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:00 pm

The new “smart person’s” argument for going back to work appears to be that people are going to starve to death from quarantine.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Mar 25, 2020 2:34 pm

“The cure is worse than the disease” is trending in the MAGA crowd.

If karma is a real thing, now is the time for it to rain thunderously down upon the heads of the republicans
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:10 pm

Add Prince Charles and Jackson Browne to the “tested positive” list
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UMFan83 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:28 pm

Derwood wrote:“The cure is worse than the disease” is trending in the MAGA crowd.

If karma is a real thing, now is the time for it to rain thunderously down upon the heads of the republicans


Like I said the other day, how insane of a message would Trump have to put out there for Republicans to not immediately get behind him and start pushing out this message on all conservative platforms?

Trump puts out the "cure can't be worse than the disease" message a few days ago and suddenly Republicans are everywhere using this talking point as if it was what they were talking about the entire time.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:44 pm

Maybe I'm dense (probably) but I still don't quite grasp what he's saying when he says the cure can't be worse than the disease. Is he saying that using money to bail out Americans is worse than Americans dying from the virus?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:52 pm

The Logan wrote:Maybe I'm dense (probably) but I still don't quite grasp what he's saying when he says the cure can't be worse than the disease. Is he saying that using money to bail out Americans is worse than Americans dying from the virus?


They're saying that there's greater human suffering/death in crashing the economy than there is in social distancing. This is a false choice for multiple reasons, but that's the logic.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 3:55 pm

So he can't see the forest for the trees. So business as usual, basically.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:07 pm

Tim wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It would also dovetail nicely with all those stories about mysterious pneumonia in Janurary and february that basically everyone knows someone who went through it.

But, I mean, I'm not remotely qualified to decide who is right when two groups of experts who both seem very qualified come up with wildly different stories.

If this is the end stages of a mature outbreak, how would it explain what is currently happening in NYC?


Large exponential growth giving you a generation far larger than any you've seen to that point.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:18 pm

My wife's co-worker just tested positive after being sick for over a week. It has been 12 days since they worked together, so now my wife has to be in isolation for at least 2 more days. Hopefully there will be no symptoms and then I guess she would be all clear from that exposure, but who knows who else in the office may have also been exposed and/or infected.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:21 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
Tim wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It would also dovetail nicely with all those stories about mysterious pneumonia in Janurary and february that basically everyone knows someone who went through it.

But, I mean, I'm not remotely qualified to decide who is right when two groups of experts who both seem very qualified come up with wildly different stories.

If this is the end stages of a mature outbreak, how would it explain what is currently happening in NYC?


Ya, I’m not sure about it being in the end stages, but I think NY appears to be an outlier. There are 36 states with single digit death rates. Cook County only has 9 deaths so far. If you take out the NYC outbreak and Washington’s dead (most of which are due to it running through multiple nursing homes before they knew to look for it), you are only looking at 361 deaths so far for the rest of the nation.

There are some who say that we are just in the first inning of this thing and that’s why the death toll is so low, but I think that assumption is based on that flawed Imperial College study. They predicted on March 23rd that Tennessee would have 191 hospitalizations and they only have 15. They predicted that NY would have had 15,000 hospitalizations on the 23rd and the actual numbers are 2500 hospitalized in NY. Those numbers are before the “do nothing” or “moderate social distancing” curve numbers kick in, which I think begins next week on that Imperial College data. So we seem to be doing OK, all things considered.

For a comparison we’ve lost around 3,600 a month to regular flu this past flu season (Oct to Mar 2020).


i wonder if that flu total could be inflated by undiagnosed/unrecognized covid deaths in the months before this thing blew up (if we're going with the theory that we're further into this thing than is widely believed). do people have to officially test positive for influenza to be counted in those death totals?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:29 pm

David wrote:i wonder if that flu total could be inflated by undiagnosed/unrecognized covid deaths in the months before this thing blew up (if we're going with the theory that we're further into this thing than is widely believed). do people have to officially test positive for influenza to be counted in those death totals?


That's a good question. This chart of "flu related illnesses" almost seems to corroborate what the Stanford professors suggest, which is that thousands traveled from Wuhan to the US in December of last year. Looks like there is always usually a bump around Christmas, but that is an extreme bump. Also, they know for certain that a woman with Covid entered the US on Jan 15th, so perhaps that could be the spike you see culminating in mid February. So perhaps this current spike we have now is just another wave of Corona, but this time we actually know what it is and are looking for it and testing for it.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:48 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Wed Mar 25, 2020 4:57 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:

Dr. Robotnik, is that you?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Irrelevant Dude » Wed Mar 25, 2020 5:02 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:My wife's co-worker just tested positive after being sick for over a week. It has been 12 days since they worked together, so now my wife has to be in isolation for at least 2 more days. Hopefully there will be no symptoms and then I guess she would be all clear from that exposure, but who knows who else in the office may have also been exposed and/or infected.

Actually, her employer wants her to work tomorrow. I'm not sure what the protocol is supposed to be.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby NOLA » Wed Mar 25, 2020 6:32 pm

Irrelevant Dude wrote:
Irrelevant Dude wrote:My wife's co-worker just tested positive after being sick for over a week. It has been 12 days since they worked together, so now my wife has to be in isolation for at least 2 more days. Hopefully there will be no symptoms and then I guess she would be all clear from that exposure, but who knows who else in the office may have also been exposed and/or infected.

Actually, her employer wants her to work tomorrow. I'm not sure what the protocol is supposed to be.

Our city actually has an anonymous hotline to call for workplace violations like this. Most cities do these days.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:09 pm

just sitting here thinking about how unbelievable it is that donald trump is the president when this is happening
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Mar 25, 2020 10:16 pm

17 Seconds wrote:just sitting here thinking about how unbelievable it is that donald trump is the president when this is happening

I'm stunned that something like this hasn't happened sooner.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian707 » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:15 pm

17 Seconds wrote:just sitting here thinking about how unbelievable it is that donald trump is the president when this is happening


I thought the same thing with Bush II during 911. But Id take him in a heartbeat now over this piece of human horsefeathering garbage we have now
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby ChiCubsFan » Wed Mar 25, 2020 11:41 pm

Had the exact same thought yesterday. Most presidential terms come and go with relatively nothing major that one person can screw up so badly. Just our luck that a major pandemic breaks out in Trumps last year and he botches it even worse than I could have imagined. Depressing to think about really.
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