CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:16 am

Love me some xkcd: https://xkcd.com/2287/
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby NOLA » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:26 am

Nothing we don’t know, but this is a brutally blunt assessment.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:38 am

NOLA wrote:Nothing we don’t know, but this is a brutally blunt assessment.


When Biden makes his VP pick, can they debate President Rump to make these points on prime time TV? I don't trust Joe to get it right.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:08 am

17 Seconds wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Because models represent our best guesses, and yes it's possible those guesses are very wrong.


right, but i'm talking about florida vs US in that same particular model. they have the US peaking in deaths in mid april, but florida peaking in the beginning of may. i'm just asking why the model shows a 2+ week difference in peaks.

Because Florida was late to the game. They welcomed the virus with open arms.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:45 am

There are going to be different peaks all over the country. There's no singular "USA peak" that's going to happen, because the outbreak here isn't confined mostly to one major city/region.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:29 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Because models represent our best guesses, and yes it's possible those guesses are very wrong.


right, but i'm talking about florida vs US in that same particular model. they have the US peaking in deaths in mid april, but florida peaking in the beginning of may. i'm just asking why the model shows a 2+ week difference in peaks.

Because Florida was late to the game. They welcomed the virus with open arms.


i'm talking about the lag. the model i'm talking about has florida deaths ramping up later than the rest of the country. the fact that florida was late to react would explain a later/longer peak, but not a delayed ascent. i'm asking about the difference in the curve. it has the US making a sharp incline and then dropping like a roller coaster. the projected florida curve is almost completely even. everything i've read has suggested that florida was likely heavily seeded early on. i don't understand how we won't hit our peak earlier than 34 days from now.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

i understand this is only one model, but i've seen other suggestions that florida is on a later trajectory, and i don't understand why it will take us that long if we're already so horsefeathers.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:17 am

17 Seconds wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
right, but i'm talking about florida vs US in that same particular model. they have the US peaking in deaths in mid april, but florida peaking in the beginning of may. i'm just asking why the model shows a 2+ week difference in peaks.

Because Florida was late to the game. They welcomed the virus with open arms.


i'm talking about the lag. the model i'm talking about has florida deaths ramping up later than the rest of the country. the fact that florida was late to react would explain a later/longer peak, but not a delayed ascent. i'm asking about the difference in the curve. it has the US making a sharp incline and then dropping like a roller coaster. the projected florida curve is almost completely even. everything i've read has suggested that florida was likely heavily seeded early on. i don't understand how we won't hit our peak earlier than 34 days from now.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

i understand this is only one model, but i've seen other suggestions that florida is on a later trajectory, and i don't understand why it will take us that long if we're already so horsefeathers.

You can’t peak until several weeks after making an effort to stop it. Florida didn’t make an effort to stop it until long after (have they get?) other areas did.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:25 am

Florida is among the 20% of US States that have not issued a stay-at-home order yet
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:28 am

jersey cubs fan wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:Because Florida was late to the game. They welcomed the virus with open arms.


i'm talking about the lag. the model i'm talking about has florida deaths ramping up later than the rest of the country. the fact that florida was late to react would explain a later/longer peak, but not a delayed ascent. i'm asking about the difference in the curve. it has the US making a sharp incline and then dropping like a roller coaster. the projected florida curve is almost completely even. everything i've read has suggested that florida was likely heavily seeded early on. i don't understand how we won't hit our peak earlier than 34 days from now.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

i understand this is only one model, but i've seen other suggestions that florida is on a later trajectory, and i don't understand why it will take us that long if we're already so horsefeathers.

You can’t peak until several weeks after making an effort to stop it. Florida didn’t make an effort to stop it until long after (have they get?) other areas did.


again, i'm asking why the model(s) delay the deaths. us failing to act quicker should presumably worsen and lengthen the peak. they shouldn't have us starting later.
Last edited by 17 Seconds on Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:30 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:29 am

Derwood wrote:Florida is among the 20% of US States that have not issued a stay-at-home order yet


thanks derwood
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:47 am

17 Seconds wrote:
jersey cubs fan wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
i'm talking about the lag. the model i'm talking about has florida deaths ramping up later than the rest of the country. the fact that florida was late to react would explain a later/longer peak, but not a delayed ascent. i'm asking about the difference in the curve. it has the US making a sharp incline and then dropping like a roller coaster. the projected florida curve is almost completely even. everything i've read has suggested that florida was likely heavily seeded early on. i don't understand how we won't hit our peak earlier than 34 days from now.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

i understand this is only one model, but i've seen other suggestions that florida is on a later trajectory, and i don't understand why it will take us that long if we're already so horsefeathers.

You can’t peak until several weeks after making an effort to stop it. Florida didn’t make an effort to stop it until long after (have they get?) other areas did.


again, i'm asking why the model(s) delay the deaths. us failing to act quicker should presumably worsen and lengthen the peak. they shouldn't have us starting later.


It's less that they're behind and more that their peak is projected to go so much higher. Taking Illinois for example, we're shown by that model to peak at 88 deaths on April 16. Florida is projected to hit 90 right around the same time, but instead of that being their peak they blow past it for another 2 weeks until their peak of 136 per day.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Apr 01, 2020 6:03 am

Bote McBoteface wrote:Can my LLC also take money from this even though im the only employee? This seems extremely generous, but everything ive read says the LLC is good to take.


I’ll be finding out soon since I’m the only employee of my LLC, but going off the questions on the application, which weren’t that many, I suspect solo practitioners or independent contractors will get it the same as a larger business.

As I said earlier, judging by my wife’s emails I get the sense the government are really just trying to stave off a depression and don’t really care about just throwing money away. They apparently expect a million of these 10k cash advances to be paid out, which sounds like a lot but it’s only 10 billion of the 2 trillion package.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:36 pm

17 Seconds wrote:
Derwood wrote:Florida is among the 20% of US States that have not issued a stay-at-home order yet


thanks derwood


I was answering gooney’s question
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Apr 01, 2020 12:56 pm

Derwood wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:
Derwood wrote:Florida is among the 20% of US States that have not issued a stay-at-home order yet


thanks derwood


I was answering gooney’s question


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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:01 pm

Has anyone looked at the numbers from New York and compared to the cruise ship on a per-capita basis? I was curious as to how that looked, considering New York is so densely packed, and New York is doing a ton of testing.

OMC I'm looking at you lol
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubinNY » Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:30 pm

Derwood wrote:Florida is among the 20% of US States that have not issued a stay-at-home order yet

That's not accurate. There are counties that have issued stay at home orders.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:35 pm

CubinNY wrote:
Derwood wrote:Florida is among the 20% of US States that have not issued a stay-at-home order yet

That's not accurate. There are counties that have issued stay at home orders.


I'm assuming he meant at a state govt level

(I still don't know if it's accurate)
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:38 pm

David wrote:
CubinNY wrote:
Derwood wrote:Florida is among the 20% of US States that have not issued a stay-at-home order yet

That's not accurate. There are counties that have issued stay at home orders.


I'm assuming he meant at a state govt level

(I still don't know if it's accurate)


Florida is partial

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... order.html
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bote McBoteface » Wed Apr 01, 2020 1:51 pm

Derwood wrote:
David wrote:
CubinNY wrote:That's not accurate. There are counties that have issued stay at home orders.


I'm assuming he meant at a state govt level

(I still don't know if it's accurate)


Florida is partial

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... order.html



The county that im in has a stay at home order going in effect on Saturday. But its ridiculously late for that, and it excludes essential workers, obviously. The definition of essential is so screwed up, though. I fly small aircraft on flight training/testing and sightseeing flights. I am not essential, although I have been deemed to be.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby TruffleShuffle » Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:22 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:39 pm

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https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/3 ... aid-157806

Last week, a Trump administration official working to secure much-needed protective gear for doctors and nurses in the United States had a startling encounter with counterparts in Thailand.

The official asked the Thais for help—only to be informed by the puzzled voices on the other side of the line that a U.S. shipment of the same supplies, the second of two so far, was already on its way to Bangkok.


Trump aides were alarmed when they learned of the exchange, and immediately put the shipment on hold while they ordered a review of U.S. aid procedures. Crossed wires would only confuse our allies, they worried, or worse—offend them. And Americans confronting a surging death toll and shortages of medical equipment back home would likely be outraged.

Vice President Mike Pence soon realized another step was needed: After a phone call asking a foreign leader’s help with key supplies, he ordered his staff to make sure the review process wasn’t holding up coronavirus-related aid to countries that were assisting the United States.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Wed Apr 01, 2020 2:55 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:Image

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/3 ... aid-157806

Last week, a Trump administration official working to secure much-needed protective gear for doctors and nurses in the United States had a startling encounter with counterparts in Thailand.

The official asked the Thais for help—only to be informed by the puzzled voices on the other side of the line that a U.S. shipment of the same supplies, the second of two so far, was already on its way to Bangkok.


Trump aides were alarmed when they learned of the exchange, and immediately put the shipment on hold while they ordered a review of U.S. aid procedures. Crossed wires would only confuse our allies, they worried, or worse—offend them. And Americans confronting a surging death toll and shortages of medical equipment back home would likely be outraged.

Vice President Mike Pence soon realized another step was needed: After a phone call asking a foreign leader’s help with key supplies, he ordered his staff to make sure the review process wasn’t holding up coronavirus-related aid to countries that were assisting the United States.

I blame the impeachment trial.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:01 pm

Derwood wrote:
David wrote:
CubinNY wrote:That's not accurate. There are counties that have issued stay at home orders.


I'm assuming he meant at a state govt level

(I still don't know if it's accurate)


Florida is partial

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... order.html

Don't you worry, Iowans "are all doing the right thing". Our governor is dumb.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Wed Apr 01, 2020 3:54 pm



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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubinNY » Wed Apr 01, 2020 4:22 pm

Andy wrote:https://twitter.com/business/status/1245370023952203786

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<Putting on my tinfoil >.

Our intelligence community knew how bad this was in China well before it was made public. They knew and reported this information to Trump. He didn't listen. This is CYA and blame shifting. China is a totalitarian regime, but even they couldn't keep a lid on how bad it was. They simply disappeared the doctor who made it public.

The truth will come out someday.
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