CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:15 pm

Derwood wrote:The problem is that if this comes in waves (like the Spanish Flu, which swept through in 1918, 1919 and 1920), the potential second/third waves may be mutated enough that anti-bodies to COVID-19 may not mean much


Just stop. This is one of the most parroted doom boner talking points that profoundly does not understand the differences between the flu virus and this coronavirus.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:22 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Derwood wrote:The problem is that if this comes in waves (like the Spanish Flu, which swept through in 1918, 1919 and 1920), the potential second/third waves may be mutated enough that anti-bodies to COVID-19 may not mean much


Just stop. This is one of the most parroted doom boner talking points that profoundly does not understand the differences between the flu virus and this coronavirus.


So what your'e saying is that you know more than epidemiologists? I don't have any idea what you do for a living, but I find it amusing that you have somehow become NSBB's leading scientific expert on viruses and diseases
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:54 pm

Derwood wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Derwood wrote:The problem is that if this comes in waves (like the Spanish Flu, which swept through in 1918, 1919 and 1920), the potential second/third waves may be mutated enough that anti-bodies to COVID-19 may not mean much


Just stop. This is one of the most parroted doom boner talking points that profoundly does not understand the differences between the flu virus and this coronavirus.


So what your'e saying is that you know more than epidemiologists? I don't have any idea what you do for a living, but I find it amusing that you have somehow become NSBB's leading scientific expert on viruses and diseases


He's saying that the public does not have the ability to distinguish between a scientist saying "here's a hypothetically possible thing that might occur in a vacuum if everything else remained constant" and "this is a thing that is going to happen." Especially when there's clickbait media filtering what information gets from the scientist to the public.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Fri Apr 03, 2020 4:55 pm

Derwood wrote:The problem is that if this comes in waves (like the Spanish Flu, which swept through in 1918, 1919 and 1920), the potential second/third waves may be mutated enough that anti-bodies to COVID-19 may not mean much

It was my understanding that the extra 'waves' were not going to be mutations, just other groups of people catching the virus that hadn't had it before.

Judging just by the snippets of info I've consumed, it sounds like mutations shouldn't be as dangerous.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:02 pm

Derwood wrote:The problem is that if this comes in waves (like the Spanish Flu, which swept through in 1918, 1919 and 1920), the potential second/third waves may be mutated enough that anti-bodies to COVID-19 may not mean much

Corona viruses and influenza viruses are different. From what I have read, this is much less likely to wonder to the point that existing anti-bodies are ineffective.

https://www.livescience.com/amp/coronavirus-mutations.html&ved=2ahUKEwi414jx3MzoAhUHbs0KHVRWCZUQFjALegQICRAB&usg=AOvVaw2VsofG0b31xVY5Kz3NJBU8&ampcf=1
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:09 pm

Andy wrote:
Derwood wrote:The problem is that if this comes in waves (like the Spanish Flu, which swept through in 1918, 1919 and 1920), the potential second/third waves may be mutated enough that anti-bodies to COVID-19 may not mean much

It was my understanding that the extra 'waves' were not going to be mutations, just other groups of people catching the virus that hadn't had it before.

Judging just by the snippets of info I've consumed, it sounds like mutations shouldn't be as dangerous.


Sounds like there is conflicting information. My wife and I watched a seminar from an HIV/AIDS epidemiologist who thought that multiple waves was likely
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:23 pm

Derwood wrote:
Andy wrote:
Derwood wrote:The problem is that if this comes in waves (like the Spanish Flu, which swept through in 1918, 1919 and 1920), the potential second/third waves may be mutated enough that anti-bodies to COVID-19 may not mean much

It was my understanding that the extra 'waves' were not going to be mutations, just other groups of people catching the virus that hadn't had it before.

Judging just by the snippets of info I've consumed, it sounds like mutations shouldn't be as dangerous.


Sounds like there is conflicting information. My wife and I watched a seminar from an HIV/AIDS epidemiologist who thought that multiple waves was likely

Waves are likely. I don't think those waves are different mutations, though. I assume it's just going to be new groups of people getting the virus.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:31 pm

Derwood wrote:
Andy wrote:
Derwood wrote:The problem is that if this comes in waves (like the Spanish Flu, which swept through in 1918, 1919 and 1920), the potential second/third waves may be mutated enough that anti-bodies to COVID-19 may not mean much

It was my understanding that the extra 'waves' were not going to be mutations, just other groups of people catching the virus that hadn't had it before.

Judging just by the snippets of info I've consumed, it sounds like mutations shouldn't be as dangerous.


Sounds like there is conflicting information. My wife and I watched a seminar from an HIV/AIDS epidemiologist who thought that multiple waves was likely


Do you even read the things you're replying to?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:37 pm

Subsequent waves will almost certainly happen. Expecting them to be just like the Spanish Flu is like expecting every draft pick to be Kris Bryant
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby squally1313 » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:39 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Subsequent waves will almost certainly happen. Expecting them to be just like the Spanish Flu is like expecting every draft pick to be Kris Bryant


Or Hayden Simpson, depending on your viewpoint.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Fri Apr 03, 2020 5:42 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Subsequent waves will almost certainly happen. Expecting them to be just like the Spanish Flu is like expecting every draft pick to be Kris Bryant


I didn't say anything was going to be "just like" anything. I said "if it's like the Spanish Flu", which is a hypothesis, not my firmly held belief
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:26 pm

Yes, if this bad thing ends up being like that other very different bad thing that changed in a very unusual way then this bad thing could indeed be a much worse thing.

Thinking or worrying that this could "be like the Spanish Flu" isn't that far off from worrying that it will mutate into something that turns us inside out.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:33 pm

That’s just silly. No one is suggesting that it mutates into something entirely new, just enough to render antibodies less effective
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:56 pm

is there any info out there on how some of the trials they are running on treatments are going?

the more i looked, the data behind hydroxychloroquine looked sketchy, at best.

any word on if the tests they were doing on using blood from recovered patients (for the antibodies) has had any success (or any other treatments they're working on)?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:00 pm

Derwood wrote:That’s just silly. No one is suggesting that it mutates into something entirely new, just enough to render antibodies less effective


You're still talking about it like it's the flu, like there's a bunch of different strains that would undercut any kind of herd immunity when it re-emerges.

If enough people caught it this go around to establish varying levels of communal immunity/resistance to cut the infection rate, then it's more likely to mutate to become more infectious, but less serious/deadly, as opposed to mutating to becoming more deadly.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:16 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Derwood wrote:That’s just silly. No one is suggesting that it mutates into something entirely new, just enough to render antibodies less effective


You're still talking about it like it's the flu, like there's a bunch of different strains that would undercut any kind of herd immunity when it re-emerges.

If enough people caught it this go around to establish varying levels of communal immunity/resistance to cut the infection rate, then it's more likely to mutate to become more infectious, but less serious/deadly, as opposed to mutating to becoming more deadly.

Sofa: -mutate +evolve

Derwood: The reason that Corona viruses are less likely to mutate to become resistant to anti-bodies than influenza is because Coronas have much longer genetic sequences. A random mutation here or there is much less likely to change its phenotype (how the virus opperates or responds to antibodies). Influenza has a relatively short genetic sequence, and a random mutation can morph it into something that dodges existing antibodies.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby SouthSideRyan » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:17 pm

David wrote:is there any info out there on how some of the trials they are running on treatments are going?

the more i looked, the data behind hydroxychloroquine looked sketchy, at best.



Per my gf(ICU nurse), it's done nothing for her patients.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:18 pm

Denver Public Schools just announced no live school for the rest of the year, which was not a surprise.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:21 pm

SouthSideRyan wrote:
David wrote:is there any info out there on how some of the trials they are running on treatments are going?

the more i looked, the data behind hydroxychloroquine looked sketchy, at best.



Per my gf(ICU nurse), it's done nothing for her patients.


Are they using just that, or combining it with AZT and zinc?

Not that that is the answer; that's reportedly the combo that had the most (limited) success.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:29 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
Derwood wrote:That’s just silly. No one is suggesting that it mutates into something entirely new, just enough to render antibodies less effective


You're still talking about it like it's the flu, like there's a bunch of different strains that would undercut any kind of herd immunity when it re-emerges.

If enough people caught it this go around to establish varying levels of communal immunity/resistance to cut the infection rate, then it's more likely to mutate to become more infectious, but less serious/deadly, as opposed to mutating to becoming more deadly.

Sofa: -mutate +evolve

Derwood: The reason that Corona viruses are less likely to mutate to become resistant to anti-bodies than influenza is because Coronas have much longer genetic sequences. A random mutation here or there is much less likely to change its phenotype (how the virus opperates or responds to antibodies). Influenza has a relatively short genetic sequence, and a random mutation can morph it into something that dodges existing antibodies.


Thanks; you put it much better than I could.

Stolen from elesewhere:

mutations happen all the time, there are many strains of SARS-CoV-2. even the spike protein has mutated to some degree. you can see all of the known strains here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov

with that said, antibodies developed by innate/vaccinated immunity are specific but not so specific that slight mutations render them ineffective. the spike protein is being targeted for vaccine therapy, and slight mutations would have no effect on immunization. major mutations would more likely render the spike protein ineffective (and thus that strain would die out).


influenza is kind of a special case because it recombines with itself/other strains to produce brand new, functional strains. there's no reason to believe this virus will behave anything like that.

as for mutations, selective pressure will always push it to become more virulent and less deadly. hospitalizing someone, or killing someone, or even making someone feel so bad that they have to stay at home is a poor method of spreading. and the strains that spread the best will win out in the end. so even if mutations happen, we can expect it to trend into a more harmless disease.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:13 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Denver Public Schools just announced no live school for the rest of the year, which was not a surprise.

Michigan wiped it all out yesterday.

I've been trying to ward off being hugely bummed for my ASD 3-year-old, who absolutely loves school and was making enormous progress there.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:15 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:36 pm

Andy wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Denver Public Schools just announced no live school for the rest of the year, which was not a surprise.

Michigan wiped it all out yesterday.

I've been trying to ward off being hugely bummed for my ASD 3-year-old, who absolutely loves school and was making enormous progress there.


he likes to learn? teach him things. take him fishing and learn how to cast together. keep his mind active. grab a cheap guitar and learn some cords. Fender is teaching for free right now
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:47 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Andy wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:Denver Public Schools just announced no live school for the rest of the year, which was not a surprise.

Michigan wiped it all out yesterday.

I've been trying to ward off being hugely bummed for my ASD 3-year-old, who absolutely loves school and was making enormous progress there.


he likes to learn? teach him things. take him fishing and learn how to cast together. keep his mind active. grab a cheap guitar and learn some cords. Fender is teaching for free right now

I don't think there is any need to give unsolicited advice to parents who are raising children with special needs in these circumstances, especially when social situations are a sticking point in this case.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Fri Apr 03, 2020 11:51 pm

CNN just did a long segment with this poor woman who lost her husband to COVID-19. 42 years old. No other health issues.

And they pumped him full of the anti-Malaria drug, no effect.
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