CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:26 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:not quite, from what I understand. Belgians are nearly perfectly formed while Brussels are rounder. I think the dough is different too.


Just the other way around, actually.
Brussels are perfect rectangles with lighter dough; Liègeois are roughly oval, thicker and made from a heavier dough.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:35 pm

Boris Johnson is in intensive care
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:38 pm

wvcbxl wrote:
minnesotacubsfan wrote:not quite, from what I understand. Belgians are nearly perfectly formed while Brussels are rounder. I think the dough is different too.


Just the other way around, actually.
Brussels are perfect rectangles with lighter dough; Liègeois are roughly oval, thicker and made from a heavier dough.

pfft - how would you know? :D
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:44 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:58 pm



this guy has been running numbers and i just hope he isn't a complete crackpot because the last couple of days he's been saying a lot of good things

but our testing is still dicey so who knows
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby NOLA » Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:42 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby stitchface » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:24 am

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:the IHME model update came out and it now projects florida to peak in deaths much sooner than before


It's lowered projections all over the nation.

This coming week *should* be the worst of it, as the cases who were infected 3-4 weeks ago hit the death totals. Another week to be sure, and then we can start having real conversations about slowly turning down the dial in most places.


i thought it was strange that birx was emphasizing to stay home extra hard (that's fine and it's what we should be doing) for the next couple of weeks because this next week or two is supposed to be so bad. like, isn't whatever happens this week what was locked in from behavior a few weeks ago?

i mean, yeah, definitely stay home everyone, but i was confused by how that was framed.


well, isn't now when the most infected people are out there? At the peak of infection, you most need to avoid being exposed because the chances are greatest.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby MidoreX » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:28 am

As someone who's had (controlled) blood pressure issues since my early twenties, this article is pretty terrifying...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heart-damage-in-covid-patients-puzzles-doctors/
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:30 am

stitchface wrote:
David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
It's lowered projections all over the nation.

This coming week *should* be the worst of it, as the cases who were infected 3-4 weeks ago hit the death totals. Another week to be sure, and then we can start having real conversations about slowly turning down the dial in most places.


i thought it was strange that birx was emphasizing to stay home extra hard (that's fine and it's what we should be doing) for the next couple of weeks because this next week or two is supposed to be so bad. like, isn't whatever happens this week what was locked in from behavior a few weeks ago?

i mean, yeah, definitely stay home everyone, but i was confused by how that was framed.


well, isn't now when the most infected people are out there? At the peak of infection, you most need to avoid being exposed because the chances are greatest.


very good point.

duh.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:37 am

MidoreX wrote:As someone who's had (controlled) blood pressure issues since my early twenties, this article is pretty terrifying...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heart-damage-in-covid-patients-puzzles-doctors/

I remember seeing early on in all this when it was mostly in China. They said the damage to the lungs and liver from this, after being recovered, could take 5-10 years for them to be totally repaired.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:45 am

stitchface wrote:
David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
It's lowered projections all over the nation.

This coming week *should* be the worst of it, as the cases who were infected 3-4 weeks ago hit the death totals. Another week to be sure, and then we can start having real conversations about slowly turning down the dial in most places.


i thought it was strange that birx was emphasizing to stay home extra hard (that's fine and it's what we should be doing) for the next couple of weeks because this next week or two is supposed to be so bad. like, isn't whatever happens this week what was locked in from behavior a few weeks ago?

i mean, yeah, definitely stay home everyone, but i was confused by how that was framed.


well, isn't now when the most infected people are out there? At the peak of infection, you most need to avoid being exposed because the chances are greatest.


things started shutting down 3+ weeks ago. i would think the most dangerous time to be out has passed. i think i kind of understand her point, though. the incubation period can be short and the people who become seriously ill from the virus often have it develop quickly. if you're going to become sick. the next week or two is the worst possible time for it to happen. i think it kind of makes sense to urge people to really try and completely isolate and at least get through these next couple weeks. getting sick now vs getting sick in a few weeks could be the difference between living and dying.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:53 am

Giuliani bought $2 million of stock in the company that makes this drug Trump is pushing?

Cool cool cool
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:29 am

Cubswin11 wrote:
MidoreX wrote:As someone who's had (controlled) blood pressure issues since my early twenties, this article is pretty terrifying...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heart-damage-in-covid-patients-puzzles-doctors/

I remember seeing early on in all this when it was mostly in China. They said the damage to the lungs and liver from this, after being recovered, could take 5-10 years for them to be totally repaired.


Things like flu viruses and pneumonia can and, too often, do cause damage to lungs, kidneys, livers, heart and the nervous system. That's obviously not to dismiss the seriousness of COVID, but even with it these sorts of developments are more worst case scenario outliers magnified by how this is a new virus that we have no real natural defense against yet, so everything about how our bodies respond (and can go hayware) is augmented and relatively unpredictable at this point.

Basically COVID is not unusual in that it has these spinoff consequences in X number of people who catch it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Brian » Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:39 am

Derwood wrote:Giuliani bought $2 million of stock in the company that makes this drug Trump is pushing?

Cool cool cool


And the owner or CEO or whatever of the company paid Michael Cohen over a million dollars in 2018 for access to Trump
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Regular Show » Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:29 pm


I feel really bad for these people and I'm so thankful they're still working in these horsefeathers conditions. I learned the other day Trader Joe's does a special hour of operations in the morning just for senior citizens, which is nice. The employees were limiting how many people enter the store and were wiping down the carts and doing a fantastic job.

Remember to thank these people next time you go out to get groceries and other essential stuff.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:31 pm

Total hospitalizations falling in New York three days running.

This thing is going to come in way below some of our worst fears from a week ago. Which of course is still way worse than it would have been if we hadn't blown it in late February/early March.

We're a week or two away from *beginning* the conversation on how to ease restrictions. Not just throwing open the doors immediately, but it will be the appropriate time to start making concrete plans of attack on the next phase.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:36 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Total hospitalizations falling in New York three days running.

This thing is going to come in way below some of our worst fears from a week ago. Which of course is still way worse than it would have been if we hadn't blown it in late February/early March.

We're a week or two away from *beginning* the conversation on how to ease restrictions. Not just throwing open the doors immediately, but it will be the appropriate time to start making concrete plans of attack on the next phase.


so, what's the next step... i've seen models showing actual case decline starting in late may/mid june....(and rate of increase slowing now)

after we get it to bottom out reasonably, we're hoping testing is accessible enough to just manage sick individuals directly via quarantine and maybe contact tracing?

basically handling subsequent outbreaks at the beginning how we wish we would/could have 3 months ago?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:38 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Total hospitalizations falling in New York three days running.

This thing is going to come in way below some of our worst fears from a week ago. Which of course is still way worse than it would have been if we hadn't blown it in late February/early March.

We're a week or two away from *beginning* the conversation on how to ease restrictions. Not just throwing open the doors immediately, but it will be the appropriate time to start making concrete plans of attack on the next phase.


so, what's the next step... i've seen models showing actual case decline starting in late may/mid june....(and rate of increase slowing now)

after we get it lower, we're hoping testing is accessible enough to just manage sick individuals directly via quarantine and maybe contact tracing?

basically handling subsequent outbreaks at the beginning how we wish we would/could have 3 months ago?


Well, we don't 'know what the next step is. That's why we need to start talking about it soon.

I don't know if we'll ever get it down to low enough levels to rely on contact tracing. I'm counting more on broad behavior changes to reduce the spread to the point where it's a constant but dim presence, like a bad flu season.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UMFan83 » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:42 pm

Regular Show wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/tepingchen/status/1247253003440193537
I feel really bad for these people and I'm so thankful they're still working in these horsefeathers conditions. I learned the other day Trader Joe's does a special hour of operations in the morning just for senior citizens, which is nice. The employees were limiting how many people enter the store and were wiping down the carts and doing a fantastic job.

Remember to thank these people next time you go out to get groceries and other essential stuff.


Yeah I think a lot of grocery stores/places that sell essentials are doing the senior citizens hours. I know my local Marianos, Jewel and Target are all doing that.

And your right, these people are trapped in a building for hours that virtually everyone has to go to at least once a week for essential foods. Thankfully, I've worked out a combo of instacart, Amazon Fresh and target curbside pickup so that I havent had to go in a grocery store for 3 weeks, but obviously not everyone has the ability or means to choose these options.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:52 pm

This is actually a really important point that I feel like the smarter parts of the internet still sometimes miss:

Social distancing is extremely effective against transmission, but it also has a diminishing return. I see a lot of worries that some idiots are going to ruin it for everyone and make lockdowns worthless. It makes a certain moral, intuitive sense, but the universe doesn't work on fairness or morality. You can get almost the same effect as full compliance with significantly less than 100% compliance.

The phrase "exponential growth" has become one of those suddenly ubiquitous terms, but it does describe in broad terms how a virus spread. And exponential growth is really counter-intuitive.

Here's an example I like to use:

Let's say you start with 10 cases, and each case creates 2.5 new cases in subsequent generations. Your 10th generation has 95,367 cases.

OK, now let's say you have 10 cases, and each case creates 1 new cases in subsequent generations. Your 10th generation has 10 cases.

So that's 95,357 cases we can potentially eliminate from the 10th generation by reducing spread from 2.5 to 1. If we go by 10% increments (2.35, 2.20, 2.05, etc.), we you get:

the first 10% causes the 10th generation to have 51,366 cases
the second 10% causes the 10th generation to have 26,559 cases
third 13,108
fourth 6131
fifth 2693
sixth 1099
seventh 410
eighth 137
ninth 40
tenth 10

Your first 20% did ~70% of the work. Your first 10% was 4,500 times more effective than your last 10%.

This is why I'm placing a lot of faith in behavior changes blunting future waves. We don't need everyone to behave perfectly. We just need a decent chunk of the population making small changes (the biggest one being that people can now get tested and told to stay home, whereas in February they would have been told it's just a weird flu).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:56 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:This is actually a really important point that I feel like the smarter parts of the internet still sometimes miss:

Social distancing is extremely effective against transmission, but it also has a diminishing return. I see a lot of worries that some idiots are going to ruin it for everyone and make lockdowns worthless. It makes a certain moral, intuitive sense, but the universe doesn't work on fairness or morality. You can get almost the same effect as full compliance with significantly less than 100% compliance.

The phrase "exponential growth" has become one of those suddenly ubiquitous terms, but it does describe in broad terms how a virus spread. And exponential growth is really counter-intuitive.

Here's an example I like to use:

Let's say you start with 10 cases, and each case creates 2.5 new cases in subsequent generations. Your 10th generation has 95,367 cases.

OK, now let's say you have 10 cases, and each case creates 1 new cases in subsequent generations. Your 10th generation has 10 cases.

So that's 95,357 cases we can potentially eliminate from the 10th generation by reducing spread from 2.5 to 1. If we go by 10% increments (2.35, 2.20, 2.05, etc.), we you get:

the first 10% causes the 10th generation to have 51,366 cases
the second 10% causes the 10th generation to have 26,559 cases
third 13,108
fourth 6131
fifth 2693
sixth 1099
seventh 410
eighth 137
ninth 40
tenth 10

Your first 20% did ~70% of the work. Your first 10% was 4,500 times more effective than your last 10%.

This is why I'm placing a lot of faith in behavior changes blunting future waves. We don't need everyone to behave perfectly. We just need a decent chunk of the population making small changes (the biggest one being that people can now get tested and told to stay home, whereas in February they would have been told it's just a weird flu).


This was basically why I was arguing that our "half assed" (I don't necessarily disagree with that assessment - and the response on a federal level has been beyond abysmal) measures are still going to be hugely impactful a week or two ago on here.

it frustrates me when i see people on twitter and otherwise anecdotally pointing to a crowd of people they saw somewhere and screaming doom (and i realize there are portions of the country who still really aren't doing much), because i feel like that will sabotage a lot of people who are putting in good faith efforts (well why am i going to bother with this crap if nobody else is) but it's obvious that our normal for the past 3-4 weeks is very much different and that it doesn't need to be perfect. i mean, ideally we'd all love everyone to behave perfectly, but that should never have been expected (and wasn't) because they know that a certain percentage of people are just going to be idiots or jerks.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:11 pm

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 125507.htm

Summary:
The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease officially issued by countries dramatically understates the true number of infections, a report suggests. Researchers used estimates of COVID-19 mortality and time until death from a recent study to test the quality of records. This shows that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of infections. The number of infections worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:19 pm

Bertz wrote:https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200406125507.htm

Summary:
The number of confirmed cases of coronavirus disease officially issued by countries dramatically understates the true number of infections, a report suggests. Researchers used estimates of COVID-19 mortality and time until death from a recent study to test the quality of records. This shows that countries have only discovered on average about 6% of infections. The number of infections worldwide may already have reached several tens of millions.


if this is true, we should know pretty quickly once testing for antibodies starts happening

but what i don't understand is, if that's true, why is it that we're not seeing our health care capacity overwhelmed in some areas (like NY) until now?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:32 pm

David wrote:but what i don't understand is, if that's true, why is it that we're not seeing our health care capacity overwhelmed in some areas (like NY) until now?


Perhaps those are just epidemics within a pandemic. It really makes you wonder how many people died from Covid in Jan and Feb nationwide who were just chalked up as flu or pneumonia deaths. It could have been as high as several thousand deaths or something and it presumably would have just been absorbed into the 50,000+- who are seasonal flu fatalities.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Apr 07, 2020 5:36 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
David wrote:but what i don't understand is, if that's true, why is it that we're not seeing our health care capacity overwhelmed in some areas (like NY) until now?


Perhaps those are just epidemics within a pandemic. It really makes you wonder how many people died from Covid in Jan and Feb nationwide who were just chalked up as flu or pneumonia deaths. It could have been as high as several thousand deaths or something and it presumably would have just been absorbed into the 50,000+- who are seasonal flu fatalities.


i actually was wondering a few weeks ago if ed aschoff from ESPN might've been a corona case

he had a mysterious bout of pneumonia and was posthumously found to have aggressive late stage non-hodgkins lymphoma.
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