CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby soccer10k » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:22 am

Wilson A2000 wrote:The virus might move faster than we think. R5.7 according to a new study. Was in NYC in February.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t=business


If we assume it’s way more infectious than we thought, wouldn’t that be a good thing (good thing might not be the right way to say this) in a way since it would mean way more people already got it and either didn’t have any symptoms or had minor symptoms and recovered? If more people have already had it, then the death rate and the hospitalization rate would be lower than we think.

If I’m looking at this the wrong way, please correct me.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:35 am

soccer10k wrote:
Wilson A2000 wrote:The virus might move faster than we think. R5.7 according to a new study. Was in NYC in February.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t=business


If we assume it’s way more infectious than we thought, wouldn’t that be a good thing (good thing might not be the right way to say this) in a way since it would mean way more people already got it and either didn’t have any symptoms or had minor symptoms and recovered? If more people have already had it, then the death rate and the hospitalization rate would be lower than we think.

If I’m looking at this the wrong way, please correct me.

That’s how I am interpreting it too. Good news that more people likely had it, which means it’s not as deadly and there’s more people with immunity as well (I think that’s a take away from what Kyle posted a few posts back about the 70x thing too, or no?). But also bad/still concerning for areas that haven’t had it go through yet that it can hit a place really hard and fast if we relax things and health systems on a local/state levels can still be overwhelmed. Also could mean there might be areas that have built up enough immunities that, that likely can’t happen.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:05 am

It's a mixed bag. An R0 of 5.7 would make it really tough to control with measures short of full lockdowns. On its own, that's bad news.

But it calls into question official case counts and hints a little bit at the everpresent "iceberg" theory: that even the amount of cases we suspect is only the tip of the iceberg and it's actually much further widespread. That would be good news, because it would mean it's way less deadly than we think and pushing it all the way to herd immunity might be plausible and even desirable.

If you take the first US confirmed case entering the country from Wuhan on Jan 15, and an R0 of 5.7 with a serial interval of 7 days, we'd expect to have more than 25 million cases by March 23. If we only have an official count of 450k and officials are admitting an undercount of 5-10x, then that's still 20 million expected cases that didn't show up which have to be explained by either the virus being less transmissible or some factor about the US is making it spread slower, both of which would be good.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:09 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It's a mixed bag. An R0 of 5.7 would make it really tough to control with measures short of full lockdowns. On its own, that's bad news.

But it calls into question official case counts and hints a little bit at the everpresent "iceberg" theory: that even the amount of cases we suspect is only the tip of the iceberg and it's actually much further widespread. That would be good news, because it would mean it's way less deadly than we think and pushing it all the way to herd immunity might be plausible and even desirable.

If you take the first US confirmed case entering the country from Wuhan on Jan 15, and an R0 of 5.7 with a serial interval of 7 days, we'd expect to have more than 25 million cases by March 23. If we only have an official count of 450k and officials are admitting an undercount of 5-10x, then that's still 20 million expected cases that didn't show up which have to be explained by either the virus being less transmissible or some factor about the US is making it spread slower, both of which would be good.


any word on how the widespread antibody testing is going in germany?

that would seem to be the earliest we could make a strong argument for/against these ideas
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:30 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:This is the first I've seen of the serological studies we've been waiting for. It's in Dutch so it's laurens' time to shine.

https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2 ... 5F1EB05999

They found antibodies in donated blood of about 3.5% of samples in a region, roughly 70 times what you would expect from the official case numbers for the corresponding period.


I was ready to jump in and help with the translation, but that's actually in Danish, not Dutch.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:36 pm

wvcbxl wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:This is the first I've seen of the serological studies we've been waiting for. It's in Dutch so it's laurens' time to shine.

https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2 ... 5F1EB05999

They found antibodies in donated blood of about 3.5% of samples in a region, roughly 70 times what you would expect from the official case numbers for the corresponding period.


I was ready to jump in and help with the translation, but that's actually in Danish, not Dutch.


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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:51 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It's a mixed bag. An R0 of 5.7 would make it really tough to control with measures short of full lockdowns. On its own, that's bad news.

But it calls into question official case counts and hints a little bit at the everpresent "iceberg" theory: that even the amount of cases we suspect is only the tip of the iceberg and it's actually much further widespread. That would be good news, because it would mean it's way less deadly than we think and pushing it all the way to herd immunity might be plausible and even desirable.

If you take the first US confirmed case entering the country from Wuhan on Jan 15, and an R0 of 5.7 with a serial interval of 7 days, we'd expect to have more than 25 million cases by March 23. If we only have an official count of 450k and officials are admitting an undercount of 5-10x, then that's still 20 million expected cases that didn't show up which have to be explained by either the virus being less transmissible or some factor about the US is making it spread slower, both of which would be good.


any word on how the widespread antibody testing is going in germany?

that would seem to be the earliest we could make a strong argument for/against these ideas


They just released some preliminary data.

They're doing a study of the district of Heinsberg, which has ~254,000 people and 1281 confirmed infections as of the study beginning on March 31, or roughly 0.5%.

They released data from one specific municipality called Gangelt, which has about 5% of the population of Heinsberg and was the site of a known superspread event early in the process. They found that 14% of the samples there tested positive for antibodies and 2% of the people they sampled separately tested positive via swab test for an active infection. If you infer from the known false negative rate of the blood test, that would mean 20% of the population has been infected. That would be 40x the official number for the district overall, although it's possible that town is not representative of the whole district.

Either way, that's not enough to infer total herd immunity, but it's enough to take a pretty good chunk out of transmission rates and change the way you approach.

They also talk about how they believe that viral load is important to prognosis, and thus it's important to particularly avoid prolonged social gatherings where you have the chance for superspreader events and exposure to high viral loads. They argue that post-lockdown strategies should focus on hygiene and restricting those events to minimize viral load of new infections.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:54 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:It's a mixed bag. An R0 of 5.7 would make it really tough to control with measures short of full lockdowns. On its own, that's bad news.

But it calls into question official case counts and hints a little bit at the everpresent "iceberg" theory: that even the amount of cases we suspect is only the tip of the iceberg and it's actually much further widespread. That would be good news, because it would mean it's way less deadly than we think and pushing it all the way to herd immunity might be plausible and even desirable.

If you take the first US confirmed case entering the country from Wuhan on Jan 15, and an R0 of 5.7 with a serial interval of 7 days, we'd expect to have more than 25 million cases by March 23. If we only have an official count of 450k and officials are admitting an undercount of 5-10x, then that's still 20 million expected cases that didn't show up which have to be explained by either the virus being less transmissible or some factor about the US is making it spread slower, both of which would be good.


any word on how the widespread antibody testing is going in germany?

that would seem to be the earliest we could make a strong argument for/against these ideas


They just released some preliminary data.

They're doing a study of the district of Heinsberg, which has ~254,000 people and 1281 confirmed infections as of the study beginning on March 31, or roughly 0.5%.

They released data from one specific municipality called Gangelt, which has about 5% of the population of Heinsberg and was the site of a known superspread event early in the process. They found that 14% of the samples there tested positive for antibodies and 2% of the people they sampled separately tested positive via swab test for an active infection. If you infer from the known false negative rate of the blood test, that would mean 20% of the population has been infected. That would be 40x the official number for the district overall, although it's possible that town is not representative of the whole district.

Either way, that's not enough to infer total herd immunity, but it's enough to take a pretty good chunk out of transmission rates and change the way you approach.

They also talk about how they believe that viral load is important to prognosis, and thus it's important to particularly avoid prolonged social gatherings where you have the chance for superspreader events and exposure to high viral loads. They argue that post-lockdown strategies should focus on hygiene and restricting those events to minimize viral load of new infections.


that idea of the importance of viral load would seem to make sense in explaining at least some of the high degree of variability we seem to be seeing in terms of symptoms...(and also would seem to be encouraging as to the efficacy of social distancing limiting the most severe cases at least) anybody know how common that attribute would be compared to other respiratory viruses?

it's going to be really interesting to see if antibody tests in other locations yield similar results.

wasn't the diamond princess right around 20%?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:57 pm

I believe Diamond Princess was 20% with swab tests, I don't think they ever did antibodies. If this thing is as transmissible as some of the recent report imply, it's safe to assume pretty much everyone on the cruise ship got it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:02 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I believe Diamond Princess was 20% with swab tests, I don't think they ever did antibodies. If this thing is as transmissible as some of the recent report imply, it's safe to assume pretty much everyone on the cruise ship got it.


yeah, i should've clarified...but with the whole event being limited to a couple of weeks, i assumed (perhaps wrongly?) that most cases associated with that event would be detectable when they were testing (vs. patients who had fully recovered who would test negative for the virus but test positively on antibodies).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:36 pm

David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I believe Diamond Princess was 20% with swab tests, I don't think they ever did antibodies. If this thing is as transmissible as some of the recent report imply, it's safe to assume pretty much everyone on the cruise ship got it.


yeah, i should've clarified...but with the whole event being limited to a couple of weeks, i assumed (perhaps wrongly?) that most cases associated with that event would be detectable when they were testing (vs. patients who had fully recovered who would test negative for the virus but test positively on antibodies).


The iceberg theory implies that a *lot* of infections are defeated quickly and never get to a sufficient viral load to show up on PCR testing. It has to take a hold in your body unchecked for a few days before it can show up on swab tests.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:55 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
David wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I believe Diamond Princess was 20% with swab tests, I don't think they ever did antibodies. If this thing is as transmissible as some of the recent report imply, it's safe to assume pretty much everyone on the cruise ship got it.


yeah, i should've clarified...but with the whole event being limited to a couple of weeks, i assumed (perhaps wrongly?) that most cases associated with that event would be detectable when they were testing (vs. patients who had fully recovered who would test negative for the virus but test positively on antibodies).


The iceberg theory implies that a *lot* of infections are defeated quickly and never get to a sufficient viral load to show up on PCR testing. It has to take a hold in your body unchecked for a few days before it can show up on swab tests.


gotcha.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:14 pm

CoolHandLuke wrote:
David wrote:apologies in advance for the source. someone sent me bits of this article and it wasn't until i read some of the comments about trump (and then googled the text) that i realized where it was coming from.

https://bluntforcetruth.com/news/covid- ... ts-secret/

does anyone smarter than me know if the science behind this (and what's being described here about the virus and how it behaves in general) is legit? is there anything out there to support this or is this just completely made up?


edit - nevermind? i guess that might not actually be the source of the article but just a site that might have posted it because it pushes the hydroxychloroquine + zpack + zinc cocktail.


If the author of that blog post that seems to be copied all across the internet's right-wing conspiracy minded cesspool actually does have knowledge that many doctors and scientists don't seem to have, he'll need to bring that information to a legit news outlet/medical organization before I will give it any credence whatsoever.

It seems like that website might have something to do with Chuck Woolery, who apparently is a lib owning crackpot now. Cool.



I figured that at least some of it was something to that effect.

I can't really speak to the sources here either. Happened upon this on YouTube and then found this medscape (don't know anything about the site but it looks legit enough and seems to have webmd ties) link...it's hard to know what to make of any of this with the political cluster horsefeathers the conversation around treatment seems to have become seemingly just because trump decided he had to talk up hydroxychloroquine.

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/928156

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:23 pm

wvcbxl wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:This is the first I've seen of the serological studies we've been waiting for. It's in Dutch so it's laurens' time to shine.

https://www.sst.dk/-/media/Udgivelser/2 ... 5F1EB05999

They found antibodies in donated blood of about 3.5% of samples in a region, roughly 70 times what you would expect from the official case numbers for the corresponding period.


I was ready to jump in and help with the translation, but that's actually in Danish, not Dutch.


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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:55 pm

I've seen a couple more articles pop up today with doctors saying that intubation is the wrong treatment for a lot of these cases because the lungs are doing a reasonable job of expelling CO2, it's just that the oxygen isn't getting to the blood. That would definitely be interesting for the possibility that we could greatly improve results. And I guess we'll have a lot of extra ventilators that we frantically built.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Transmogrified Tiger » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:07 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I've seen a couple more articles pop up today with doctors saying that intubation is the wrong treatment for a lot of these cases because the lungs are doing a reasonable job of expelling CO2, it's just that the oxygen isn't getting to the blood. That would definitely be interesting for the possibility that we could greatly improve results. And I guess we'll have a lot of extra ventilators that we frantically built.


I was just reading one of those, it was saying that the effect was functionally similar to altitude sickness, which you naturally treat differently than someone's lungs shutting down.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby SeldomSeen » Thu Apr 09, 2020 4:56 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I've seen a couple more articles pop up today with doctors saying that intubation is the wrong treatment for a lot of these cases because the lungs are doing a reasonable job of expelling CO2, it's just that the oxygen isn't getting to the blood. That would definitely be interesting for the possibility that we could greatly improve results. And I guess we'll have a lot of extra ventilators that we frantically built.


I was just reading one of those, it was saying that the effect was functionally similar to altitude sickness, which you naturally treat differently than someone's lungs shutting down.


Yeah, I'm super interested to see how the clinical trials using dexamethasone go.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:03 pm

Transmogrified Tiger wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:I've seen a couple more articles pop up today with doctors saying that intubation is the wrong treatment for a lot of these cases because the lungs are doing a reasonable job of expelling CO2, it's just that the oxygen isn't getting to the blood. That would definitely be interesting for the possibility that we could greatly improve results. And I guess we'll have a lot of extra ventilators that we frantically built.


I was just reading one of those, it was saying that the effect was functionally similar to altitude sickness, which you naturally treat differently than someone's lungs shutting down.


Yep, that's what the doctor in the video said. Compared it to what a mountain climber might feel like.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:44 pm

Rough math on how well we've managed this relative to other countries (TONS of caveats here, of course, but these are all advanced countries we're talking about):

By the end of this week, we're on pace to have more cases than the next five countries combined (Italy, Spain, Germany, France & China).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:45 pm

Tim wrote:Rough math on how well we've managed this relative to other countries (TONS of caveats here, of course, but these are all advanced countries we're talking about):

By the end of this week, we're on pace to have more cases than the next five countries combined (Italy, Spain, Germany, France & China).



yeahhhh, about that...
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Thu Apr 09, 2020 5:47 pm

David wrote:
Tim wrote:Rough math on how well we've managed this relative to other countries (TONS of caveats here, of course, but these are all advanced countries we're talking about):

By the end of this week, we're on pace to have more cases than the next five countries combined (Italy, Spain, Germany, France & China).



yeahhhh, about that...

Fine, skip them (and Iran) and use the UK.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:02 pm

Tim wrote:
David wrote:
Tim wrote:Rough math on how well we've managed this relative to other countries (TONS of caveats here, of course, but these are all advanced countries we're talking about):

By the end of this week, we're on pace to have more cases than the next five countries combined (Italy, Spain, Germany, France & China).



yeahhhh, about that...

Fine, skip them (and Iran) and use the UK.


So those 5 countries, combined, have a population of 325M. The US has 330M, so, relatively even. and like you said, tons of caveats about tons of things.

i'm showing 589,658 cases for those 5 countries and the US has 455k. so yeah, i guess we should exceed those totals by the end of the week? but it's not like theirs won't go up.

we're obviously dealing with a ton of noisy data here and we seem to potentially be off on case totals by as much as 10x (or god knows how much more) so none of these numbers mean anything anyway. we know the UK wasn't testing all that seriously and as far as i can tell, spain's testing has been similarly inadequate (having a hard time finding totals).

so the long short of it is that none of these numbers mean anything anyway and can't be relied upon for anything and i'm not sure what the point of the comparison was to begin with.
Last edited by David on Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:14 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby UK » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:05 pm

Tim wrote:
David wrote:
Tim wrote:Rough math on how well we've managed this relative to other countries (TONS of caveats here, of course, but these are all advanced countries we're talking about):

By the end of this week, we're on pace to have more cases than the next five countries combined (Italy, Spain, Germany, France & China).



yeahhhh, about that...

Fine, skip them (and Iran) and use the UK.



I'm good.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:10 pm

Tim wrote:
David wrote:
Tim wrote:Rough math on how well we've managed this relative to other countries (TONS of caveats here, of course, but these are all advanced countries we're talking about):

By the end of this week, we're on pace to have more cases than the next five countries combined (Italy, Spain, Germany, France & China).



yeahhhh, about that...

Fine, skip them (and Iran) and use the UK.


I'm interested to see how population effects the fact that we will soon have the most cases.

US population: 331 million - 454,615 Covid Cases - 1,373 cases per million
UK, Italy, Germany, France, Spain: 323 million - 590,077 Covid cases - 1,942 cases per million

Edit: Just saw that David was simultaneously doing the same thing I was doing.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:15 pm

Tim wrote:Rough math on how well we've managed this relative to other countries (TONS of caveats here, of course, but these are all advanced countries we're talking about):

By the end of this week, we're on pace to have more cases than the next five countries combined (Italy, Spain, Germany, France & China).

Like you said, there's tons of caveats. Too many to really even draw preliminary conclusions.
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