CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Bertz » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:11 pm

Thread on implications of some of the evidence coming out that indicates that the virus is more contagious but less deadly than we thought

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:15 pm

OleMissCub wrote:So these Germans have been studying hundreds how it is actually transmitted from person to person and they are finding out that even though Covid might be on an item, it is essentially dead and isn’t capable of transmitting for longer lengths of time. It’s spread through large droplets of the virus.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-ge ... t-hit-spot

“Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles.

However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. "This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of 'dead' viruses," Streeck said.

According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it.

"After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out.

Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."


does this mean i can stop obsessively washing my hands every time i carelessly touch something like 2 minutes after i had already washed my hands?


because even with lotioning a few times a day, my hands are basically high grit sandpaper right now
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby WrigleyField 22 » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:19 pm

David wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:So these Germans have been studying hundreds how it is actually transmitted from person to person and they are finding out that even though Covid might be on an item, it is essentially dead and isn’t capable of transmitting for longer lengths of time. It’s spread through large droplets of the virus.

https://www.thelocal.de/20200402/how-ge ... t-hit-spot

“Streeck, who is director of the Institute of Virology at Bonn University, said he was able to detect coronavirus by swabbing remote controls, washbasins, mobile phones, toilets or door handles.

However, it has not been possible to cultivate the virus in the laboratory on the basis of these swabs. "This means that we have detected the RNA (or ribonucleic acid, which carries the virus’s genetic information) of 'dead' viruses," Streeck said.

According to his previous research results, he believes "that a door handle can only be infectious if someone has actually coughed in their hand and then reached for it.

"After that, you have to reach for the door handle yourself and touch your face," he said. It is not yet possible to say how long the virus can remain on a door handle because not enough studies have been carried out.

Streeck added: "We were in a household where many highly infectious people lived, and yet we did not manage to detect a living virus from any surface."


does this mean i can stop obsessively washing my hands every time i carelessly touch something like 2 minutes after i had already washed my hands?


because even with lotioning a few times a day, my hands are basically high grit sandpaper right now

Can I touch my face again?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:21 pm

Bertz wrote:Thread on implications of some of the evidence coming out that indicates that the virus is more contagious but less deadly than we thought



I don't outright disagree with him, but "this new information that is wildly different than me previous assumptions actually prove that we should follow the exact path that I planned on under the old information" should always be treated with suspicion.

He's right that the total mortality if we reach herd immunity could still be horrific under these assumptions, even if not *as* bad as the multiple-millions-dead scenarios. But the "reduce it to negligible amounts with lockdown plans and then contact trace" has a hard time projecting to be effective in a worlrd where R0 is approaching 6. If R0 is 3 and lockdowns suppress 80% of cases, you've got exponential decay and your number of cases peters out pretty fast. But if R0 is 6 and lockdowns suppress 80% of cases, you won't see any reduction in new cases at all, just a slowing down of the growth. You'll never reach a point where contact tracing is feasible.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Fri Apr 10, 2020 6:57 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Banedon » Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:20 pm

Ding Dong Johnson wrote:


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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:46 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Apr 10, 2020 7:51 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:


That's not nearly as scary as it sounds. It's either people who were right on the borderline getting negative tests then getting positive tests not long after, or it's just detecting dead virus.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:49 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
CyHawk_Cub wrote:


That's not nearly as scary as it sounds. It's either people who were right on the borderline getting negative tests then getting positive tests not long after, or it's just detecting dead virus.


that or the more likely scenario: its mutating and we're all going to horsefeathering die
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Sat Apr 11, 2020 3:49 am

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Sat Apr 11, 2020 4:58 am

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Rob » Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:11 am

David wrote:https://twitter.com/4danlopez/status/1248770255662526464?s=20


I've heard we are "days away" from widespread testing so many times already.

Maybe it's true this time. But I'll believe it when I see it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:55 pm

I'm days away from my death. It may be 10,000+ days away but why split hairs.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:36 am

https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-s ... a/illinois

Illinois can't be doing this well, can it?

Something appears off with the data... i could swear a few days ago they had the lines filled in solid as actuals up until the current date.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Wilson A2000 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 12:01 pm

David wrote:https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/illinois

Illinois can't be doing this well, can it?

Something appears off with the data... i could swear a few days ago they had the lines filled in solid as actuals up until the current date.


Three days ago that site said 3,000 something deaths through August; now just 700 something.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Wilson A2000 » Sun Apr 12, 2020 1:07 pm

Are any patients in the McCormick Place hospital?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sun Apr 12, 2020 3:50 pm

https://wellcomeopenresearch.org/articles/5-67

An estimate that 80% of spread comes from 10% of cases, aka the "superspreader events." We need to be using our time on lockdown to figure out how to eliminate those while letting less risky activities resume.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Mon Apr 13, 2020 12:59 pm

Just remember:

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Mon Apr 13, 2020 1:45 pm

CyHawk_Cub wrote:

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Apr 13, 2020 2:12 pm

Yeah, too much of the media coverage of this has been predictably wretched. "Person actually still sick/has traces of the virus" is apparently not as exciting as "SUPER MUTANT FREAK BUG CAN SNEAK BACK INTO YOUR HOUSE, WRECK THE JOINT, AND THEN RE-INFECT YOU ALL OVER AGAIN," I guess.

I keep dreading for the news bomb to go off about how this thing works with animals. We could end up with scores of dead and abandoned pets from people thinking their cats and dogs are plague vectors because of enough terrifying headlines.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:07 pm

i'm really pushing the limits of being able to do something presentable with my most recent haircut
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:08 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:11 pm

David wrote:i'm really pushing the limits of being able to do something presentable with my most recent haircut

Shave it or two guard it. You won't regret it.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:24 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
David wrote:i'm really pushing the limits of being able to do something presentable with my most recent haircut

Shave it or two guard it. You won't regret it.


I've cut my own hair for years. Who knew I was prepping for quarantine
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:30 pm

JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:
David wrote:i'm really pushing the limits of being able to do something presentable with my most recent haircut

Shave it or two guard it. You won't regret it.



Been there and done it. I will regret it. No desire to go back. Took 2 damn years to get it to the length I got it to, too.

Anyway, really I just need my neck and sides cleaned up. I'm mostly exaggerating but there's nothing like the feeling of a fresh haircut. Gonna be one of the first things I do whenever things re-open.
Last edited by David on Mon Apr 13, 2020 3:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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