CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:34 pm

Ohio released obvious and incredibly unhelpful back-to-school guidelines today :banghead:
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Thu Jul 02, 2020 11:36 pm

Thurman Merman wrote:
David wrote:do other seasonal respiratory viruses tend to tick up in the south when it gets oppressively hot and people are more reliant on being indoors/air conditioned?

i'm just curious if this pattern is usually a thing that happens (only way worse with this thing)

I thought that was an interesting angle, so I looked up flu data for Texas. And it appears that the flu there follows the same pattern as like Illinois with it peaking in winter and low in the summer. So no AC related germ spreading.


Though the big caveat is that this appears to be significantly more infectious than a flu virus.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Jul 03, 2020 12:06 am

Silver is a big jocker of this guy: https://twitter.com/youyanggu who models at this site: https://covid19-projections.com/

He estimates we're adding 200,000 new infections per day and trending upward for the rest of the month. I think that when you consider the studies that suggest t-cell resistance and deeper asymptomatic infection than we've been accounting for, it might be even higher than that.

And you know what comes after this month? Schools and colleges, a nationwide conversation that we're trying desperately not to think about because there's no good answers. Thinking that you're going to have strict controls on elementary school kids is hilarious wishful thinking, and good luck trying to convince college kids not to have house parties. Our choices are cancelling school for at least the first half of the school year (and don't kid yourself, excepting parents to homeschool is funcitonally cancelling school) or YOLOing the effects it has on virus spread.

Like I said, if I seem optimistic it's probably just the slant I'm choosing to put on it, because what I'm saying is that we're going to be a national experiment to find out *exactly* how far the virus can go before it burns itself out, because we're not stopping it now. I suspect that the true herd immunity rate is a lot lower than 70%, and the fatality rates have improved a lot since March, but we're still talking about a horrible national tragedy rolling out excrutiatingly slowly over the course of most of a year. My guess is that the true herd immunity/burn out percentage is about 25% infected, so maybe 80 million cases in the US. We've probably already had 30 million and we'll be adding 2-3 million a week soon. See ya in January one way or another.

Once it burns itself out, it doesn't really disappear but it becomes endemic, with everyone being at least partially resistant either natively or from previous infection. It joins the dozens of viruses we call "common cold" or "just the flu."

I'm super curious what happens if/when the US has effectively let it burn through but many parts of the world are trying to maintain their succesful containment. We may see ourselves become a sort of global leper colony.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:36 am

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Fri Jul 03, 2020 6:32 am

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Once it burns itself out, it doesn't really disappear but it becomes endemic, with everyone being at least partially resistant either natively or from previous infection. It joins the dozens of viruses we call "common cold" or "just the flu."


Some of those "dozens" are coronaviruses already. In your scenario, this one simply gets added to that list.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Fri Jul 03, 2020 2:27 pm

wvcbxl wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:Once it burns itself out, it doesn't really disappear but it becomes endemic, with everyone being at least partially resistant either natively or from previous infection. It joins the dozens of viruses we call "common cold" or "just the flu."


Some of those "dozens" are coronaviruses already. In your scenario, this one simply gets added to that list.


which is also a part of the reason a lot of us might have protection already


i wonder if this can at least be a partial explanation for why children and young people (among the people most exposed to stuff that has been out there in the world recently - like other circulating coronaviruses- and who live with least precautions in terms of hygiene because they're kids and they don't care and they just get thrown in a big room all day with other kids who don't care about anything) seem to be the least affected and why it hits the elderly (many of whom live very insular lives and have been sort of protected in general from exposure to stuff out in the world) so much harder

that aside from the obvious primary factor that younger people generally will be in better health and have stronger immune systems than older people, of course.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubColtPacer » Fri Jul 03, 2020 3:13 pm

The next six days are going to be confusing from a data perspective. An observed holiday today, a holiday tomorrow, Sunday/Monday after that and then potentially extra catch up data on Tuesday/Wednesday. It will be hard to see the trend on what is a pretty crucial period for a lot of states.

Today should be the most normal as long as the data reports from yesterday come in even with less people working this morning. So far the data is fairly normal from the states that have reported so we will see. (And I think it is becoming clearer with today's data added in that Florida is joining Arizona and Texas in that their deaths are starting to go up again).
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Fri Jul 03, 2020 4:40 pm

CubColtPacer wrote:The next six days are going to be confusing from a data perspective. An observed holiday today, a holiday tomorrow, Sunday/Monday after that and then potentially extra catch up data on Tuesday/Wednesday. It will be hard to see the trend on what is a pretty crucial period for a lot of states.

Today should be the most normal as long as the data reports from yesterday come in even with less people working this morning. So far the data is fairly normal from the states that have reported so we will see. (And I think it is becoming clearer with today's data added in that Florida is joining Arizona and Texas in that their deaths are starting to go up again).


Yeah. I don't know if it will be this week exactly, but it's inevitable that whatever is driving down deaths will be overwhelmed by the sheer increase in cases soon.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Sat Jul 04, 2020 12:39 am

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Sun Jul 05, 2020 1:53 pm



I didn't realize the WHO was still pushing surface contact as the primary means of transmission and not airborne particles, as this thread implies.

All of the stuff in there seems like stuff we've believed to be the case for at least several weeks now.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sun Jul 05, 2020 2:12 pm

Everything in the tweet/article feels like it fell out of a time warp from 3 months ago.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Mon Jul 06, 2020 10:54 am

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Mon Jul 06, 2020 9:59 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby The Logan » Tue Jul 07, 2020 4:17 pm

Bolsonaro tests positive for COVID-19

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Tue Jul 07, 2020 9:47 pm

Large rise in fatalities today from a week ago, but that could just be a bigger backlog of reporting due to the holiday weekend. It will be very interesting to see what happens tomorrow.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubColtPacer » Tue Jul 07, 2020 10:49 pm

Tim wrote:Large rise in fatalities today from a week ago, but that could just be a bigger backlog of reporting due to the holiday weekend. It will be very interesting to see what happens tomorrow.


I think most of it is the holiday weekend, but the early peaking states are definitely showing signs of an uptick. And the hospitalizations just keep going up, now in mid-May territory :(

Based on when the hospitalizations started going up, this should either be the last week deaths decline, the week that things are essentially flat, or the first week of increase. Hard to tell which one it will be (while for example next week I would find it hard to believe another decline). But when deaths start going up, they will go up for at least two straight weeks and there is no sign that this is going to stop anytime soon.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:34 pm

when worlds collide

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:36 pm

i've seen a few anecdotal quotes in some local news stories from hospitals saying that the cases popping up right now aren't as severe as what we were seeing in spring and that they are doing much better in terms of treatment. i guess we'll see soon if/how that bears out in the numbers.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:43 pm

17 Seconds wrote:when worlds collide



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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Tue Jul 07, 2020 11:57 pm

Holzhauer might be my favorite human.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:27 am

17 Seconds wrote:when worlds collide


Apparently he's 65 games short of a record of some sort
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:32 am

Tim wrote:
17 Seconds wrote:when worlds collide


Apparently he's 65 games short of a record of some sort


i don't care about him participating, but he's clearly some kind of covid dumbass
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Jul 08, 2020 12:33 am

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Re: RE: Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby We Got The Whole 9 » Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:02 am

David wrote:i've seen a few anecdotal quotes in some local news stories from hospitals saying that the cases popping up right now aren't as severe as what we were seeing in spring and that they are doing much better in terms of treatment. i guess we'll see soon if/how that bears out in the numbers.
I know several people who have tested positive. A couple are asymptomatic and the rest have had pretty mild symptoms. I am scheduled to get tested on Thursday. Last week I had body aches and a mild fever. Overall it was nowhere near some of the worst colds/flus I've had in my life.

FWIW I tend to believe the anecdotes I've seen that this is not as deadly a virus as we dealt with in the early going.
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Re: RE: Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Jul 08, 2020 1:24 am

We Got The Whole 9 wrote:
David wrote:i've seen a few anecdotal quotes in some local news stories from hospitals saying that the cases popping up right now aren't as severe as what we were seeing in spring and that they are doing much better in terms of treatment. i guess we'll see soon if/how that bears out in the numbers.
I know several people who have tested positive. A couple are asymptomatic and the rest have had pretty mild symptoms. I am scheduled to get tested on Thursday. Last week I had body aches and a mild fever. Overall it was nowhere near some of the worst colds/flus I've had in my life.

FWIW I tend to believe the anecdotes I've seen that this is not as deadly a virus as we dealt with in the early going.

Anecdotally I know 2 60 year olds who had it on March and barely dealt with any symptoms.
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