CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tryptamine » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:05 pm

David wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:The numbers in Kane county have been pretty miserable lately and after visiting the Scarecrow Festival in St. Charles last weekend it's no surprise. I'd say at least 2/3 of people I saw had no masks and everyone was packing themselves on top of each other in the out door dining areas. I'm starting to give up hope of any return to normalcy in the next couple years.


it's not gonna take a couple years


I really hope you're correct, and you most likely are, but I'm not going to get my hopes up when I see so many people flagrantly ignoring any recommendations.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby David » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:14 pm

Tryptamine wrote:
David wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:The numbers in Kane county have been pretty miserable lately and after visiting the Scarecrow Festival in St. Charles last weekend it's no surprise. I'd say at least 2/3 of people I saw had no masks and everyone was packing themselves on top of each other in the out door dining areas. I'm starting to give up hope of any return to normalcy in the next couple years.


it's not gonna take a couple years


I really hope you're correct, and you most likely are, but I'm not going to get my hopes up when I see so many people flagrantly ignoring any recommendations.


it's frustrating to see people doing dumb things, for sure
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:36 pm

David wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
David wrote:
it's not gonna take a couple years


I really hope you're correct, and you most likely are, but I'm not going to get my hopes up when I see so many people flagrantly ignoring any recommendations.


it's frustrating to see people doing dumb things, for sure


It is, but it's also not the standard of what is happening everywhere. The weekend before last we were visiting my GF's parents up in Eastern PA, and we went to a fall fest-type thing, and pretty much everyone was wearing a mask, even though it was almost entirely outdoors.

Yeah, some places are dropping the ball, but it's not an all or nothing necessity to ultimately getting this under control.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:46 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
David wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:
I really hope you're correct, and you most likely are, but I'm not going to get my hopes up when I see so many people flagrantly ignoring any recommendations.


it's frustrating to see people doing dumb things, for sure


It is, but it's also not the standard of what is happening everywhere. The weekend before last we were visiting my GF's parents up in Eastern PA, and we went to a fall fest-type thing, and pretty much everyone was wearing a mask, even though it was almost entirely outdoors.

Yeah, some places are dropping the ball, but it's not an all or nothing necessity to ultimately getting this under control.

I had a completely different experience in PA. They'd completely stopped caring about masks.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:52 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
Sammy Sofa wrote:
David wrote:
it's frustrating to see people doing dumb things, for sure


It is, but it's also not the standard of what is happening everywhere. The weekend before last we were visiting my GF's parents up in Eastern PA, and we went to a fall fest-type thing, and pretty much everyone was wearing a mask, even though it was almost entirely outdoors.

Yeah, some places are dropping the ball, but it's not an all or nothing necessity to ultimately getting this under control.

I had a completely different experience in PA. They'd completely stopped caring about masks.


Trust me, I was completely surprised. Maybe it was because it was essentially Biden-ville, but it hugely reduced my stress of being somewhere like that. But again, that just highlights how little anecdotal evidence has to do with how long this will take, since what we experience can vary so radically just within the same state. And it is difficult to not just focus on the big picture, like, "OMG, my state's numbers are going up!" regardless of how things are going in your own area.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:53 pm

when will it be "over"? What's the standard there?

I read that, historically, pandemics "end" when one of two ways: 1) there is essentially no one else left to infect (either by vaccine or by natural immunity) or 2) society accepts the risk and decides to return to business as usual despite the disease still existing.

With Covid in the USA, I'm not sure how much longer we can go on without a "societal end". Even in the hardest hit places, we're only seeing about 15 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. Is that enough of a threat for your average person to keep complying with rules, etc., for another six months to a year?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:56 pm

OleMissCub wrote:when will it be "over"? What's the standard there?

I read that, historically, pandemics "end" when one of two ways: 1) there is essentially no one else left to infect (either by vaccine or by natural immunity) or 2) society accepts the risk and decides to return to business as usual despite the disease still existing.

With Covid in the USA, I'm not sure how much longer we can go on without a "societal end". Even in the hardest hit places, we're only seeing about 15 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. Is that enough of a threat for your average person to keep complying with rules, etc., for another six months to a year?


It’s 15 per 100k *under the current restrictions*. As we saw in the summer, if you loosen the restrictions, it goes up quickly.

It ends with a vaccine
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Oct 13, 2020 5:58 pm

Even without masks *or* distancing, outdoor activity is roughly 20x safer than indoor activity.

I would prefer people do all the things, but the fact that it was an outdoor dining area at all is most of the battle.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:35 pm

David wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:The numbers in Kane county have been pretty miserable lately and after visiting the Scarecrow Festival in St. Charles last weekend it's no surprise. I'd say at least 2/3 of people I saw had no masks and everyone was packing themselves on top of each other in the out door dining areas. I'm starting to give up hope of any return to normalcy in the next couple years.


it's not gonna take a couple years


Depends on how many people claiming that they won't take the vaccine actually take the vaccine. I doubt that the roughly 50/50 split in will/won't take a vaccine holds up in practice, but the efficacy of a vaccine relies on the plurality of people taking it
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:42 pm

Derwood wrote:
David wrote:
Tryptamine wrote:The numbers in Kane county have been pretty miserable lately and after visiting the Scarecrow Festival in St. Charles last weekend it's no surprise. I'd say at least 2/3 of people I saw had no masks and everyone was packing themselves on top of each other in the out door dining areas. I'm starting to give up hope of any return to normalcy in the next couple years.


it's not gonna take a couple years


Depends on how many people claiming that they won't take the vaccine actually take the vaccine. I doubt that the roughly 50/50 split in will/won't take a vaccine holds up in practice, but the efficacy of a vaccine relies on the plurality of people taking it


Really not worried about there being too many people who completely refuse to get it; most holdouts, IMO, would even eventually jump on once they see them working elsewhere. A clearly working promise to get back to a normal life ASAP will trounce some muddled idea of "MUH FREEDOMS!!!!" once they see it successfully in practice.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:50 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Derwood wrote:
David wrote:
it's not gonna take a couple years


Depends on how many people claiming that they won't take the vaccine actually take the vaccine. I doubt that the roughly 50/50 split in will/won't take a vaccine holds up in practice, but the efficacy of a vaccine relies on the plurality of people taking it


Really not worried about there being too many people who completely refuse to get it; most holdouts, IMO, would even eventually jump on once they see them working elsewhere. A clearly working promise to get back to a normal life ASAP will trounce some muddled idea of "MUH FREEDOMS!!!!" once they see it successfully in practice.

Yup. Also the people so reluctant to get one are probably the ones not really taking any real precautions and doing things like going to bars/indoor dining/whatever else still so there’s probably a good chance a good amount have had it already and naturally be immune after recovering.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Oct 13, 2020 6:58 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:when will it be "over"? What's the standard there?

I read that, historically, pandemics "end" when one of two ways: 1) there is essentially no one else left to infect (either by vaccine or by natural immunity) or 2) society accepts the risk and decides to return to business as usual despite the disease still existing.

With Covid in the USA, I'm not sure how much longer we can go on without a "societal end". Even in the hardest hit places, we're only seeing about 15 hospitalizations per 100,000 people. Is that enough of a threat for your average person to keep complying with rules, etc., for another six months to a year?


It’s 15 per 100k *under the current restrictions*. As we saw in the summer, if you loosen the restrictions, it goes up quickly.

It ends with a vaccine


Not taking exception to your overall point, but there are plenty of states who don't really have major restrictions at the current time. Can't speak for other states, but our idiot governor discontinued Mississippi's mask mandate several weeks ago (although thankfully I see very few people not wearing masks at the grocery store or gas station, etc) and we are at 75% capacity regarding restaurant restrictions. We currently have 15.4 hosp. per 100k and 4 ICU per 100k.

For reference on overall hospitalizations, the highest rate we achieved nationally was July 23rd when we had 59,718 people hospitalized which comes out to 18.2 per 100k.

fwiw, US hospitalizations are up +16% as more places are opening up. Hospitalizations went from 30,009 to 35,056 in the past week.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:04 pm

You can't operate under the assumption that just because a place is "opened up," or mask restrictions have been lifted, that it actually means almost everything and everyone is going about business as usual. Even in places like Florida, you have enough people choosing on their own to curtail activities or gatherings, or stay home, or to wear masks, that it impacts the numbers, and influences the eventual behavior of others. Mississippi's numbers are still very much shaped by people behaving differently under the banner of a pandemic.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby JudasIscariotTheBird » Tue Oct 13, 2020 7:31 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:
Derwood wrote:
David wrote:
it's not gonna take a couple years


Depends on how many people claiming that they won't take the vaccine actually take the vaccine. I doubt that the roughly 50/50 split in will/won't take a vaccine holds up in practice, but the efficacy of a vaccine relies on the plurality of people taking it


Really not worried about there being too many people who completely refuse to get it; most holdouts, IMO, would even eventually jump on once they see them working elsewhere. A clearly working promise to get back to a normal life ASAP will trounce some muddled idea of "MUH FREEDOMS!!!!" once they see it successfully in practice.

I'd only have one thing to say to the people who don't want to take the vaccine:
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby 17 Seconds » Tue Oct 13, 2020 11:47 pm

i've been doing doordash part time to make some extra cash on the weekends, and i've actually been shocked at how many people wear masks here in florida.

i'm hoping that florida benefits from the lack of a real winter. people can pretty much stay outside all winter long except for a few cold fronts here and there. hopefully that counteracts desantis and we don't become a hotspot again.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Soul » Wed Oct 14, 2020 1:21 am

My in laws have a winter home in FL. We just got back. All the name brand stores require masks for entry. Nearly all restaurants have outdoor seating and require masks if you walk through.

Sure there are a few bars who are like yeah baby no mask zone! And some scowling Trump supporters walking around daring people to say something to them.

But I live in Madison WI and the experience was similar. I’m actually more worried about us once the really cold weather hits, and it’s coming fast.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Wed Oct 14, 2020 6:24 pm

Holy horsefeathers! France just declared a 9pm - 6am curfew for Paris and other major French cities effective from next Saturday. :shock:
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Tim » Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:18 pm

wvcbxl wrote:Holy horsefeathers! France just declared a 9pm - 6am curfew for Paris and other major French cities effective from next Saturday. :shock:

whoa

Didn't realize it was coming back that strongly there.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby squally1313 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:24 pm

Tim wrote:
wvcbxl wrote:Holy horsefeathers! France just declared a 9pm - 6am curfew for Paris and other major French cities effective from next Saturday. :shock:

whoa

Didn't realize it was coming back that strongly there.


Mostly just laziness on my part, but when I hear about new shutdowns in Europe, I never know if they are hitting like, America type numbers, or if they are closer on the spectrum to New Zealand seeing like 6 new cases and shutting back down for a week.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Cubswin11 » Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:33 pm

squally1313 wrote:
Tim wrote:
wvcbxl wrote:Holy horsefeathers! France just declared a 9pm - 6am curfew for Paris and other major French cities effective from next Saturday. :shock:

whoa

Didn't realize it was coming back that strongly there.


Mostly just laziness on my part, but when I hear about new shutdowns in Europe, I never know if they are hitting like, America type numbers, or if they are closer on the spectrum to New Zealand seeing like 6 new cases and shutting back down for a week.

I think most countries are seeing cases rise in the 1,000s per day over there. In the last week or two I remember seeing a lot of the countries were upping restrictions/doing lockdowns and believe those are the levels of numbers I recall seeing in articles.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:45 pm

When I checked a few days ago, Germany was about 1/2 per capita what California is, and France was worse per capita than California. And California isn't one of the better US states. So they're definitely in the ballpark.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:54 pm

Cubswin11 wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
Tim wrote:whoa

Didn't realize it was coming back that strongly there.


Mostly just laziness on my part, but when I hear about new shutdowns in Europe, I never know if they are hitting like, America type numbers, or if they are closer on the spectrum to New Zealand seeing like 6 new cases and shutting back down for a week.

I think most countries are seeing cases rise in the 1,000s per day over there. In the last week or two I remember seeing a lot of the countries were upping restrictions/doing lockdowns and believe those are the levels of numbers I recall seeing in articles.


Yeah, France and Italy are having some especially bad surges, and Germany's not so hot, either. In all three, it seems to be mostly stemming from crowded public transit.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby minnesotacubsfan » Wed Oct 14, 2020 7:56 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:When I checked a few days ago, Germany was about 1/2 per capita what California is, and France was worse per capita than California. And California isn't one of the better US states. So they're definitely in the ballpark.


you think everything revolves around your state dont you

thats soooooooo Californian of you
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:00 pm

minnesotacubsfan wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:When I checked a few days ago, Germany was about 1/2 per capita what California is, and France was worse per capita than California. And California isn't one of the better US states. So they're definitely in the ballpark.


you think everything revolves around your state dont you

thats soooooooo Californian of you


I may not be here much longer. Brother-in-law is looking for jobs in other states. He's an audio engineer at Disneyland, has been laid off since March and it doesn't look like the state is in any hurry to let them reopen. If they move, I have to choose and I'd probably have to go with them, because I want my kid to grow up wit his cousins since he doesn't have any siblings of his own.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubColtPacer » Wed Oct 14, 2020 8:12 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:When I checked a few days ago, Germany was about 1/2 per capita what California is, and France was worse per capita than California. And California isn't one of the better US states. So they're definitely in the ballpark.


Just scrolling over Covid Exit Strategy, looks like California has the 9th fewest cases per capital (including DC), and the 15th fewest hospitalizations per capita. I would definitely say they are one of the better US states.
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