CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:13 am

big ball chunky time wrote:
JudasIscariotTheBird wrote:https://twitter.com/Cleavon_MD/status/1317581045890383873?s=19


anyone who looks like that deserves death


fify

A lot of Affliction t-shirts are going to end up at a Goodwill soon.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:12 am

Likely due to steroids.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Mon Oct 19, 2020 7:14 am

OleMissCub wrote:What has changed to make the graphs look so different? That’s what we’re discussing.


The level of testing seems to be the obvious answer (to cite our local numbers: we went from 4,000 tests a day mid march to over 50,000 a day now) - the testing strategy has also evolved; as a result, comparing case numbers to what they were in march seems risky, whereas hospital admissions, ICU numbers and deaths can be more easily compared.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Oct 19, 2020 12:33 pm

wvcbxl wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:What has changed to make the graphs look so different? That’s what we’re discussing.


The level of testing seems to be the obvious answer (to cite our local numbers: we went from 4,000 tests a day mid march to over 50,000 a day now) - the testing strategy has also evolved; as a result, comparing case numbers to what they were in march seems risky, whereas hospital admissions, ICU numbers and deaths can be more easily compared.


Ok, then look at the hospitalization and death numbers. They aren’t remotely the same as they were back then.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Mon Oct 19, 2020 1:52 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Ok, then look at the hospitalization and death numbers. They aren’t remotely the same as they were back then.


Euhm ... according to yesterday's graph for hospitalizations (source: Sciensano COVID19 daily report page 4) we are already back to end of march levels, and rising sharply. Same for daily deaths (granted, those are indeed rising more slowly this time)

(FYI, Sciensano is our CDC)
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Mon Oct 19, 2020 2:19 pm

wvcbxl wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Ok, then look at the hospitalization and death numbers. They aren’t remotely the same as they were back then.


Euhm ... according to yesterday's graph for hospitalizations (source: Sciensano COVID19 daily report page 4) we are already back to end of march levels, and rising sharply. Same for daily deaths (granted, those are indeed rising more slowly this time)

(FYI, Sciensano is our CDC)


Sorry Goldmember, I don’t speak freaky deeky Dutch. I can’t read that website

This one is easier to understand

https://datastudio.google.com/embed/rep ... page/QTSKB

That says you are averaging almost 7900 new cases a day. That’s like .5% of the total population of Belgium over the past week. That’s the American equivalent of 16 million new cases in a week (we’re currently at 350k positives a week). That seems impossible. You guys having any issues with false positives? I saw this morning that a study was published last week that showed that 44% of PCR tests which use under 40 cycles result in false positives.

Germany is one of the only European counties not using the <40 cycle PCR test and that might explain why they are looking like this:

Spoiler: show
Image
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby wvcbxl » Mon Oct 19, 2020 3:02 pm

OleMissCub wrote:This one is easier to understand

https://datastudio.google.com/embed/rep ... page/QTSKB

That says you are averaging almost 7900 new cases a day. That’s like .5% of the total population of Belgium over the past week. That’s the American equivalent of 16 million new cases in a week (we’re currently at 350k positives a week). That seems impossible. You guys having any issues with false positives? I saw this morning that a study was published last week that showed that 44% of PCR tests which use under 40 cycles result in false positives.


Why would that seem impossible? We're conducting twice as many tests per 1,000 inhabitants, and the positivity rate is double what you guys are having (I don't need to tell you the positivity rate depends on the test strategy). The US equivalent would be 1.6 million, btw, so the x2 (testing rate) x2 (positivity rate) on your 350k seems to roughly work out.

If you look at hospitalizations on that datastudio link, it confirms that our situation is similar to the second half of march.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CubColtPacer » Mon Oct 19, 2020 10:59 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
wvcbxl wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:Ok, then look at the hospitalization and death numbers. They aren’t remotely the same as they were back then.


Euhm ... according to yesterday's graph for hospitalizations (source: Sciensano COVID19 daily report page 4) we are already back to end of march levels, and rising sharply. Same for daily deaths (granted, those are indeed rising more slowly this time)

(FYI, Sciensano is our CDC)


Sorry Goldmember, I don’t speak freaky deeky Dutch. I can’t read that website

This one is easier to understand

https://datastudio.google.com/embed/rep ... page/QTSKB

That says you are averaging almost 7900 new cases a day. That’s like .5% of the total population of Belgium over the past week. That’s the American equivalent of 16 million new cases in a week (we’re currently at 350k positives a week). That seems impossible. You guys having any issues with false positives? I saw this morning that a study was published last week that showed that 44% of PCR tests which use under 40 cycles result in false positives.

Germany is one of the only European counties not using the <40 cycle PCR test and that might explain why they are looking like this:

Spoiler: show
Image


There are outbreaks in the US that have rivaled that. Arizona during the summer was worse than that.

It looks like North Dakota right now has had .64% of their population test positive over the last week.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Oct 20, 2020 3:40 am

CubColtPacer wrote:It looks like North Dakota right now has had .64% of their population test positive over the last week.


That’s what, like 13 people?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby CyHawk_Cub » Tue Oct 20, 2020 9:45 pm

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Oct 20, 2020 10:44 pm

they need to pick a name for their nation and stick with it.

Also, it says they ended the mandate in July. It’s October now...
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:08 pm

OleMissCub wrote:
CubColtPacer wrote:It looks like North Dakota right now has had .64% of their population test positive over the last week.


That’s what, like 13 people?


Has anyone checked on Da Bum and/or Katie Pizza?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Tue Oct 20, 2020 11:13 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
CubColtPacer wrote:It looks like North Dakota right now has had .64% of their population test positive over the last week.


That’s what, like 13 people?


Has anyone checked on Da Bum and/or Katie Pizza?


Da Bum lived in ND?
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Wed Oct 21, 2020 12:13 am

OleMissCub wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
That’s what, like 13 people?


Has anyone checked on Da Bum and/or Katie Pizza?


Da Bum lived in ND?


He stole Kyle's job
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Andy » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:18 am

Derwood wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
Hairyducked Idiot wrote:
Has anyone checked on Da Bum and/or Katie Pizza?


Da Bum lived in ND?


He stole Kyle's job

He lives in Pittsburgh now, if anyone actually cared and didn't know
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Ding Dong Johnson » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:57 am

Andy wrote:
Derwood wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:
Da Bum lived in ND?


He stole Kyle's job

He lives in Pittsburgh now, if anyone actually cared and didn't know

Tell him to swing by and say hello.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby squally1313 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 1:57 pm

OleMissCub wrote:they need to pick a name for their nation and stick with it.

Also, it says they ended the mandate in July. It’s October now...


Right. Which explains their skyrocketing numbers.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby jersey cubs fan » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:02 pm

squally1313 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:they need to pick a name for their nation and stick with it.

Also, it says they ended the mandate in July. It’s October now...


Right. Which explains their skyrocketing numbers.

You end a mandate in July and it's not like people are just going to immediately go back to normal behavior. Relatively responsible personal behavior will prevent an immediate surge, because actual humans know the problem exists. Without the mandate though people will increasingly ditch masks and gather together, which will inherently create a surge down the line, which certainly appears to be the case here.

When leaders signal that the problem is over/ending people will react, if not immediately then certainly over time.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Wed Oct 21, 2020 2:34 pm

jersey cubs fan wrote:
squally1313 wrote:
OleMissCub wrote:they need to pick a name for their nation and stick with it.

Also, it says they ended the mandate in July. It’s October now...


Right. Which explains their skyrocketing numbers.

You end a mandate in July and it's not like people are just going to immediately go back to normal behavior. Relatively responsible personal behavior will prevent an immediate surge, because actual humans know the problem exists. Without the mandate though people will increasingly ditch masks and gather together, which will inherently create a surge down the line, which certainly appears to be the case here.

When leaders signal that the problem is over/ending people will react, if not immediately then certainly over time.


Misssissippi’s governor foolishly ended our mask mandate a few weeks ago and just about everyone is still wearing masks when they are indoors

With levels of infection four times the rest of Europe, there is more to the story than just masks In Czechia
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Hairyducked Idiot » Sat Oct 24, 2020 5:34 am

The winter wave fears sure look to be coming true and it has the potential to get really big. We have cases very clearly rising, zero appetite for new restrictions, General public fatigue, and the holidays coming up.

COVID-19-projections stopped updating, which really sucks, but we should be closing in on 20% prevalence nationwide in the next few weeks. The only good news is that the spike mostly seems to be driven by areas that hadn’t been hit hard yet and there aren’t many of those left, but even places like Illinois, Florida, Texas are still having problems.

If things keep going at their current pace, we would be reaching 30% prevalence by Christmas. If things get worse, maybe even more? By time a vaccine gets here, there may not be much work left to do. Or there may be. We are in pretty unexplored territory here and it’s hard to make predictions.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Oct 24, 2020 6:44 am

Bold strategy, Cotton.

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Derwood » Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:50 pm

OleMissCub wrote:Bold strategy, Cotton.



Fun fact, The Villages has one of the highest STD rates per capita in Florida. Apparently retirees are just banging everything that moves
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Oct 24, 2020 12:53 pm

Hairyducked Idiot wrote:The winter wave fears sure look to be coming true and it has the potential to get really big. We have cases very clearly rising, zero appetite for new restrictions, General public fatigue, and the holidays coming up.

COVID-19-projections stopped updating, which really sucks, but we should be closing in on 20% prevalence nationwide in the next few weeks. The only good news is that the spike mostly seems to be driven by areas that hadn’t been hit hard yet and there aren’t many of those left, but even places like Illinois, Florida, Texas are still having problems.

If things keep going at their current pace, we would be reaching 30% prevalence by Christmas. If things get worse, maybe even more? By time a vaccine gets here, there may not be much work left to do. Or there may be. We are in pretty unexplored territory here and it’s hard to make predictions.


It still depresses me so horsefeathering much that this country is run by a maniac idiot who thinks the ones thing that could have truly helped mitigate this is the thing causing the most harm (to him): testing. It's insane that there wasn't a top-down, all hands on deck push to have a quick national testing system in place. We're over nine horsefeathering months into this, and our testing options are as confusing and scattershot as garbage and recycling collection, and on the same nonsensical, wholly inefficient state by state/county by county/city by city standards, too.
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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby OleMissCub » Sat Oct 24, 2020 3:28 pm

Sammy Sofa wrote:It still depresses me so horsefeathering much that this country is run by a maniac idiot who thinks the ones thing that could have truly helped mitigate this is the thing causing the most harm (to him): testing. It's insane that there wasn't a top-down, all hands on deck push to have a quick national testing system in place. We're over nine horsefeathering months into this, and our testing options are as confusing and scattershot as garbage and recycling collection, and on the same nonsensical, wholly inefficient state by state/county by county/city by city standards, too.


It would really help if they mandated that the PCR tests be accessed using the normal cycle threshold and not under 40 cycles. Cutting corners isn’t the way to go about testing. This study showed that PCR tests that used under 40 cycles (as we and most of Europe are) have a 44% false positive rate! Even if the actual number is half that then we have a major problem. Inaccurate tests don’t do us any good in fighting this thing.

https://www.clinicalmicrobiologyandinfe ... 98-743X(20)30614-5/fulltext

As I posted a few pages ago, Germany and Austria require normal threshold cycles when using PCR tests...

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Re: CDC Info on COVID-19 (Corona virus)

Postby Sammy Sofa » Sat Oct 24, 2020 4:19 pm

They should have been looking to Asia the whole time for testing standards. The horsefeathering answer was there all along.
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